The Ledger

AEGAegon Ltd.

Industry Life annuity Updated 27 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

€7.31 → €8.03

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

€7 → €8

Show the math

Today's price to free cash flow held where it is. Free cash flow grows at the ~5% a year management guides, from the ~EUR 0.68bn 2025 run-rate it restated for the UK sale. That is divided by a share count that keeps falling at the pace of the last seven months of buybacks. Free cash flow is struck after the holding company's interest and running costs, so no net debt is subtracted: the borrowings are already paid for inside the measure being compounded. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0€2€5€8€10€12Today (Oct 2026): €7, the market price€7TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): €8 a share if management delivers€812 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): €9 a share if management delivers€924 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): €10 a share if management delivers€1036 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: the buyback keeps shrinking the countshares -4.3% a year as in Dec '25 to Jul '26 (seven months, read as a half); no convertibles or warrants€7€81403M sh€91343M sh€101286M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Today's market value over the free cash flow management's own run-rate and growth rate imply for 2026, EUR 0.68bn grown 5%: 15× on free cash flow. It is the one figure in the model that is not a forecast, it is held unchanged in every year shown, and it cancels out of the later years by construction. No debt is added: free cash flow is struck after the holding company's funding costs.
  2. The compounding. "Around 5% per annum", management's own rate for free cash flow in the 2026-27 ambitions, unchanged since the Dec '25 Capital Markets Day when the UK business was still in the base. No rate is given for 2028 or 2029, so they hold the same one. Free cash flow comes before capital injections into the units, which were EUR 786m in 2025, and it includes a.s.r.'s dividends and buyback proceeds, EUR 237m of it.
  3. The arithmetic. (equity value if delivered) ÷ shares. Today: €7 × 1480.0M economic shares (the common shares plus the B shares at a fortieth each) is the market value, in euros on Euronext. The count then falls from the 31 Jul 2026 count at the pace of the seven months before it, with no new debt and no issuance. There are no convertibles and no warrants, so 0M shares are added anywhere.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
OCG ~€1.1B in '24H1-24€1,245M, after a raise to 1.2Held
OCG ~€1.2B in '25H1-24€1,287MHeld
Free cash flow ~€800M in '25H1-24€829MHeld
Dividend €0.40 for '25H1-24€0.40Held
Leverage ~€5.0B by '25H1-24€4.85B; €4.97B by Jun '26Held
2H25 buyback €400MH1-25about €402M spentHeld
LTC rate rises $700M NPVH1-24$708M; then the tile was droppedHeld
April '25 hit to RBC: single digitsQ1 '255 pointsHeld
Bond eligibility: -6 pts solvencyQ1 '25-7 pointsHeld
US move decided by Dec '25H1-25decided; seat moves Jan '28Held
Holdco cash to ~€1.0B by end '26Q3 '24€1.66B at Jun '26; openOpen
Financial Assets to $2.2B by '27H1-24$2.7B at Dec '25; openOpen
EGM Oct '26, US GAAP from FY27H1-26not due yetOpen
'26-27 ambitions: FCF +5% a yearH2-25base cut 0.8 to 0.68 for the UK saleOpen

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

H1-24Q3
'24
H2-24Q1
'25
H1-25Q3
'25
H2-25H1-26

OCGPage one since H1-24

PayoutsPage one since H2-25

Holdco cashOff page one H2-25

TransamericaPage one since Q3 '25

Run-offOff page one H1-26

MortalityPage one since H1-26

US movePage one since H1-26

UKPage one since H1-26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

H1-24 · headline page

“EUR 588 million operating capital generation1 and EUR 750 m illion IFRS operating result, both lower compared with 1H 2023 reflecting unfavorable mortality experience in the US mostly related to Financial Assets”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 2 ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

Q3 '24 · headline page

“FY 2024 operating capital generation of around EUR 1.2 billion”

Deck 3Q 2024 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

H2-24 · headline page

“Aegon’s updated guidance of around EUR 1.2 billion”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 2 (OCR) ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

Q1 '25 · headline page

“EUR 267 million operating capital generation1, reflecting business progression offset by unfavorable mortality experience in the US”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

H1-25 · headline page

“EUR 576 million operating capital generation1 on track to meet our OCG guidance of around EUR 1.2 billion for 2025”

Deck 1H 2025 Financial Results · p. 2 ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

Q3 '25 · headline page

“EUR 340 million operating capital generation1 on track to meet the OCG target of around EUR 1.2 billion for 2025”

Deck 3Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

H2-25 · headline page

“EUR 1.3 billion operating capital generation1 in FY 2025, exceeding Aegon’s target of EUR 1.2 billion”

Deck 2H 2025 Results · p. 2 ·

Operating capital generation against the annual guide

H1-26 · headline page

“EUR 416 million operating capital generation2 (+27% vs. 1H 2025) driven by strong business growth and improved claims experience”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 2 ·

Share buybacks and dividends

H1-24 · headline page

“Announcing an interim dividend of EUR 0.16 per common s hare, up 14% over the 2023 interim dividend; EUR 200 million share buyback program announced at 1Q 2024 started in July 2”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 2 ·

Share buybacks and dividends

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Announcing a planned new share buyback program of EUR 150 million2, to start at the beginning of January 2025, and expected to conclude in the first half of 2025”

Deck 3Q 2024 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Share buybacks and dividends

H2-24 · headline page

“« Proposing a final dividend of EUR 0.19 per common share or EUR 0.35 for the full year 2024, in line with the trajectory towards EUR 0.40 per share over 2025”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 2 (OCR) ·

Share buybacks and dividends

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Announcing a planned new share buyback program of EUR 200 million starting at the beginning of July 2025, and expected to conclude on or before December 31, 2025”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Share buybacks and dividends

H1-25 · headline page

“Increasing the ongoing share buyback to EUR 400 million from the previously announced EUR 200 million”

Deck 1H 2025 Financial Results · p. 2 ·

Share buybacks and dividends

H2-25 · headline page

“Proposing a final dividend of EUR 0.21 per common share or EUR 0.40 for FY 2025, consistent with Aegon’s target”

Deck 2H 2025 Results · p. 2 ·

Share buybacks and dividends

H1-26 · headline page

“Increasing the ongoing share buyback program by EUR 150 million to a total of EUR 350 million in 2H 2026”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 2 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

H1-24 · headline page

“Cash Capital at Holding at EUR 2.1 billion reflects”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 2 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Cash Capital at Holding at EUR 1.5 billion, planning to reach the mid-point of the operating range by end of 2026”

Deck 3Q 2024 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

H2-24 · further in the deck

“Cash Capital at Holding above the top end of the operating range”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 18 (OCR) ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Committed to reach the mid-point of the EUR 0.5 – 1.5 billion operating range for Cash Capital at Holding by the end of 2026”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 10 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

H1-25 · headline page

“Cash Capital at Holding at EUR 2.0 billion reflecting”

Deck 1H 2025 Financial Results · p. 2 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Cash Capital at Holding at EUR 1.9 billion reflecting capital return to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks, partly offset by proceeds from the sale of 12.5 million shares in a.s.r.”

Deck 3Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

H2-25 · further in the deck

“Cash Capital at Holding moving into the operating range”

Deck 2H 2025 Results · p. 13 ·

Cash Capital at Holding and its operating range

H1-26 · further in the deck

“Targeting around EUR 1.0 billion Cash Capital at”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 14 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

H1-24 · further in the deck

“Transforming Transamerica into America’s leading middle market life insurance and retirement company”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

Q3 '24 · headline page

“US Strategic Assets experience commercial volatility with lower new life sales and net outflows in retirement”

Deck 3Q 2024 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

H2-24 · headline page

“« US Strategic Assets growing with more WFG agents, strong written sales and net deposits in mid-sized Retirement Plans, despite slightly lower new life sales”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 2 (OCR) ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

Q1 '25 · headline page

“US Strategic Assets growing with more WFG agents and increasing new life sales volumes, and good momentum in Retirement Plans written sales”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

H1-25 · further in the deck

“Growing Transamerica’s business focused on middle-market America”

Deck 1H 2025 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Growing the distribution network and maintaining strong commercial momentum with increased life sales in the US”

Deck 3Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

H2-25 · headline page

“Strong commercial momentum in the US with a growing distribution network, 30% increase in new life sales in FY 2025, and strong written sales in Retirement Plans”

Deck 2H 2025 Results · p. 2 ·

Transamerica middle-market growth (WFG agents, life sales, retirement)

H1-26 · headline page

“Strong commercial performance demonstrated by 54% increase in US new individual life sales, more than 100,000 WFG agents, strong written sales in Retirement Plans, and net inflows in Asset Management”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 2 ·

Running down US Financial Assets

H1-24 · further in the deck

“CSM development reflecting strategy to grow Strategic Assets and shrink Financial Assets 1.”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 14 ·

Running down US Financial Assets

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Completed institutionally owned universal life policy re-purchase program; policy terminations with negative impact on”

Deck 3Q 2024 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Running down US Financial Assets

H2-24 · further in the deck

“Executing the US Financial Assets strategy”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 17 (OCR) ·

Running down US Financial Assets

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Executing the US Financial Assets strategy”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 15 ·

Running down US Financial Assets

H2-25 · headline page

“Reduced capital employed in Financial Assets to USD 2.7 billion, ahead of the USD 2.9 billion target, as a result of the SGUL reinsurance transaction”

Deck 2H 2025 Results · p. 2 ·

Unfavorable US mortality experience

H1-24 · headline page

“EUR 588 million operating capital generation1 and EUR 750 m illion IFRS operating result, both lower compared with 1H 2023 reflecting unfavorable mortality experience in the US mostly related to Financial Assets”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 2 ·

Unfavorable US mortality experience

H2-24 · further in the deck

“+10% Investments « Net investment result impacted by lower asset levels and from a non-recurring benefit in 2H 2023 425% Distribution « Favorable mortality experience while morbidity was in line with”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 10 (OCR) ·

Unfavorable US mortality experience

Q1 '25 · headline page

“EUR 267 million operating capital generation1, reflecting business progression offset by unfavorable mortality experience in the US”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

Unfavorable US mortality experience

H1-25 · further in the deck

“EUR (80) million of unfavorable mortality claims experience in Universal Life, part of which was expected from seasonality, partly offset by higher”

Deck 1H 2025 Financial Results · p. 10 ·

Unfavorable US mortality experience

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“US Strategic Assets reported USD 173 million of OCG in 3Q25, an increase of USD 32 million compared with 3Q24, from more favorable claims experience and a growing book, partly offset by higher new business strain ▪ US Financial Assets reported USD 84 million of OCG in 3Q25, broadly stable compared with 3Q24, benefiting from more favorable morbidity claims experience”

Deck 3Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 7 ·

Unfavorable US mortality experience

H1-26 · headline page

“EUR 416 million operating capital generation2 (+27% vs. 1H 2025) driven by strong business growth and improved claims experience”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 2 ·

Relocation of legal domicile and head office to the US

H1-25 · headline page

“Initiating a review on a potential relocation of Aegon’s legal domicile and head office to the United States 2”

Deck 1H 2025 Financial Results · p. 2 ·

Relocation of legal domicile and head office to the US

H2-25 · further in the deck

“Investments and restructuring charges from transforming the business and relocating head office and legal seat to the US”

Deck 2H 2025 Results · p. 9 ·

Relocation of legal domicile and head office to the US

H1-26 · headline page

“Moving at pace with the redomiciliation with a number of milestones including the sale of Aegon UK to Standard Life and the agreement with”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 2 ·

UK platforms, then the sale of Aegon UK

H1-24 · headline page

“Growth remains challenging for the UK Adviser platform, in Chi na, and in Spain & Portugal”

Deck 1H 2024 Results · p. 2 ·

UK platforms, then the sale of Aegon UK

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Lower new business volumes in Brazil and Spain & Portugal, and, as anticipated, net outflows in UK Adviser platform”

Deck 3Q 2024 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

UK platforms, then the sale of Aegon UK

H2-24 · headline page

“« Performing strongly in the UK Workplace while continuing to transform the UK Adviser platform to reduce net outflows”

Deck 2H 2024 Results · p. 2 (OCR) ·

UK platforms, then the sale of Aegon UK

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Strong inflows in the UK Workplace platform while the UK”

Deck 1Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

UK platforms, then the sale of Aegon UK

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Net outflows in the UK platform business due to departure of two large, low-margin workplace schemes and ongoing transformation of the Adviser platform”

Deck 3Q 2025 Trading Update · p. 2 ·

UK platforms, then the sale of Aegon UK

H1-26 · headline page

“Moving at pace with the redomiciliation with a number of milestones including the sale of Aegon UK to Standard Life and the agreement with”

Deck 1H 2026 Results · p. 2 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

OCG
The first line of every headline slide, all eight: 588M in 1H24, "on track" for ~1.2B twice, then beaten at 1.3B. From 1H26 it is after holding costs, so 416M (+27%) is set against 327M, not 576M.
Payouts
A new or bigger buyback, or the dividend step, on page one of seven decks: €150M, €200M raised to €400M, then +€150M to €350M in 2H26.
Holdco cash
On page one while it sat above the range (€2.1B, €1.5B, €2.0B, €1.9B). Inside the deck once it fell into it at FY25, and still inside at 1H26 with €1.7B, above the range again.
Transamerica
On page one from 3Q24. "Middle market" in 2024, "middle-market America" in 2025, "Main Street America" by 2H25. In 1H26 it is +54% US life sales and "more than 100,000 WFG agents", with no productivity figure.
Run-off
On page one twice: the universal-life buy-back completed (3Q24), and capital employed at $2.7B after the SGUL deal (2H25). Absent from 1H25, 3Q25 and 1H26.
Mortality
A headline drag in 1H24 and 1Q25. From 3Q25 claims experience is a tailwind, credited in the 1H26 headline.
US move
Absent before 1H25, when the review went on page one. In 2H25 only a cost line; in 1H26 page one again, with three slides on the timeline, the governance and the solvency regime.
UK
Adviser-platform outflows on page one in five decks; in 1H26 the business is sold.
New
2H25: the 2026-27 ambitions as growth rates on 2025 run-rates. 1H26: OCG after holding costs, the rebased run-rates, and the path to Transamerica Inc.
Quiet
The quarterly trading update (no 1Q26 deck), the UK solvency ratio, WFG market share and multi-ticket agents, the long-term-care rate tile and the 2025 targets slide: five of ten measures, persistence 0.5.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q2 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q2 26
Demand & customers9%19%14%9%12%·23%·
Growth & sales·6%5%18%12%·15%38%
Pricing & margins18%6%5%9%25%·23%12%
Guidance & outlook45%31%14%45%38%25%31%38%
Capital & financing36%44%41%64%25%25%15%62%
Competition·6%·9%·25%8%·
Products & technology27%12%5%18%··15%12%
Macro & regulation·25%27%27%38%·15%·
Other27%38%41%18%12%50%23%25%
Questions1116221184138
How much the CEO talked0%0%23%37%0%0%44%18%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    Every yardstick changes at once, while the disclosures are taken away

    IFRS to US GAAP (first for FY27, reported Feb '28), Bermuda to Delaware, the Bermuda Monetary Authority to Iowa, quarterly to half-yearly, and no group solvency ratio at all after the move, which fell from 184% to 169% in 1H26. Five measures were withdrawn in eight months. The agent-productivity KPI was declined on the 1H26 call on the day the release credited sales to "improved WFG agent productivity".

  2. Tier 2 · live

    The CFO's exit and the rebased ambitions came the same day

    On 2026-08-20 the 2025 run-rates were cut for the UK sale (free cash flow ~€0.8B to ~€0.68B), and a separate 6-K said Duncan Russell leaves in April 2027. No successor is named. Will Fuller becomes president and COO from Jan '27, and the HR chief changed in June.

  3. Tier 2 · worsening

    Chief executive pay doubled; a third of the next award pays for the move

    Awarded and due €6.25M for 2025, +105%, with the short-term incentive at 137% of target. For 2026 salary +8% to €1.474M, long-term target 175% to 250% of salary, and the 2026-28 award a third on "a Transition Expense metric" for the cost of US GAAP and the move, a third on return on IFRS equity.

  4. Tier 2 · improving

    A foundation's emergency votes and a staggered board, half dismantled

    Vereniging Aegon holds 18.01% plus all the B shares: ~18.4% of votes, ~31% on a Special Cause. Shareholder nominees need two thirds. The move ends both and the B shares, but the staggered four-year board lasts until 2030. The foundation has pledged its votes to the move and sells into every buyback pro rata.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    No open-market insider trading, only tax withholding

    Insiders began filing Forms 3 and 4 in March '26 though exempt. Every disposal since is shares withheld for tax, 390,253 shares and about €2.79M across six people. No purchase.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
2026 AGM, every resolution—not filedapproved
8 Oct '26 vote on the moveMoving the company's legal home. Changing where the company is incorporated changes the law and the courts that govern shareholders' rights. Here the number is the votes for it.—to come~18.4% pledged for

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Forms 4, Mar-Sep 2026, in EURSoldNote
Fuller, Transamerica CEO€1.59M221,990 shares withheld for tax on 25 Mar
Friese, CEO€0.72M100,521 shares withheld for tax on 25 Mar
Russell, CFO€0.43M59,926 shares withheld for tax on 25 Mar (Form 4/A)