Upside per management guidance

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA

AI semis

$215 a share in 12 months and $580 in 36: the one year this company has ever guided, then that year's rate twice more. Fiscal 2028 is the first full year NVIDIA has put a number on, and on the guide alone it is worth $365 a share at the end of 2028, against $211 today. The two years after it are that same rate repeated twice, which management has not guided and which the chief executive called supply-constrained even for one year: $1,087 by 2030 is arithmetic carried forward, not a forecast.

Price $210.96 → $365 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +28% a year

26 podcast statements

Meta Platforms, Inc. META

Megacap tech

$757 a share in 12 months and $1,137 in 36, if revenue keeps growing at the one rate guided. That is what holding today's price-to-sales on 22-27% growth gives against $643 today, and it is the generous reading: management also guides costs up 49-52% this year and capex near doubling, and promises only that 2026 operating income will beat 2025's once a $9.9B legal charge is left out. A margin that keeps shrinking would take value off every bar.

Price $642.62 → Guidance delivered $757 in 12 months

15 podcast statements

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL

Megacap tech

What they have put numbers on makes a share worth $356 in 12 months and $364 in 36, and nothing after that has a number. Against $320 today. The backlog adds about a fifth to 2025's operating profit once, $364 at the end of 2027 on the arithmetic; after that only the share count moves, growing again since buybacks stopped and stock was sold in June, so from October 2028 the figure is held and the arithmetic alone gives $349 at 36 months. Search, YouTube and the capex itself carry no number management has stated, so the part of the price that rests on them cannot be checked against a plan.

Price $320.21 → Guidance delivered $356 in 12 months

14 podcast statements

Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN

Megacap tech

$266 a share in 12 months and $319 in 36, if the one rate management gives holds for three years. Amazon guides one quarter at a time and nothing else with a number on it, so every bar after Q3 '26 repeats that quarter's 9-12% growth. The guide has been beaten six quarters in seven, which would make this low; but nothing here charges for the ~$220B a year of capex or the notes paying for it.

Price $248.00 → Guidance delivered $266 in 12 months

11 podcast statements

Tesla, Inc. TSLA

Auto OEM

What they have put numbers on, Megapack 3, makes a share worth $423 in 12 months and $435 in 36. Against $372 today: $435 a share at the end of 2027 on the arithmetic, and after that nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so from October 2028 the figure is held and the arithmetic alone gives $431 at 36 months. Robotaxi, Cybercab and Optimus have dates but no volumes, prices or margins, so the part of today's price that rests on them cannot be checked against a plan.

Price $372.22 → Guidance delivered $423 in 12 months

10 podcast statements

Microsoft Corporation MSFT

Megacap tech

Grow revenue by double digits with the margin down less than a point, as guided, and a share is worth $581 in 12 months and $762 in 36. Against $525 today. Buybacks cover the stock paid to staff, so the count stays flat; the capex is guided but never tied to how it is paid for.

Price $524.51 → Guidance delivered $581 in 12 months

10 podcast statements

Oracle Corporation ORCL

Megacap tech

Grow earnings 18-28% a year, between the two rates management gives to fiscal 2030, and a share is worth $126 in 12 months and $146 in 36. Against $126 today. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's price. The rise after that is slow because the share count is growing about 10.5% a year, the pace of the half that held the $20B programme.

Price $126.16 → $129 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +1% a year

9 podcast statements

Netflix, Inc. NFLX

Media entertainment

What their own guide implies: $76 a share by October 2027 and $105 by October 2029, against $66 today. That is 2026's 13% growth and 31.5% margin carried for three years at today's multiple, with the share count falling at the pace of the last nine months. Management has put no number on any year after 2026, so the later bars are the 2026 guide repeated, not a plan.

Price $65.85 → Guidance delivered $75.96 in 12 months

6 podcast statements

CoreWeave, Inc. CRWV

AI datacenter

Their plan, their paper: $61 a share in 12 months, $106 in 36. The company would be worth about twice as much by the end of 2027 and nearly four times as much by 2029, on management's own capacity programme. A share does less than that, because the build is financed: the count goes from 551.5M toward 713M on the plan, and the converts would add 110M more.

Price $54.23 → Guidance delivered $60.79 in 12 months

6 podcast statements

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX

Space defense

$238 a share in 12 months and $548 in 36, on management's own numbers. That is $147 today, and it is not a forecast of anything - it is what holding today's valuation on the December run rate implies once you compound at the rates management itself prints. The arithmetic is steep because the inputs are: a December revenue run rate 5.4 times FY2025's revenue, growth of 33-92% a year after it, and a gross margin going from 49% towards a roughly 70% goal. Every one of those is a goal the company has put in writing and not yet delivered, and the chart assumes all of them land. At the end of 2029 the same arithmetic gives $585.

Price $147.49 → Guidance delivered $238 in 12 months

5 podcast statements

Apple Inc. AAPL

Megacap tech

What they have put numbers on: $365 a share in 12 months and $447 in 36, against $348 today. The guide covers one quarter, so carrying it three years is the most generous reading management's words allow, and the margin steps down from June's 50.1%, which had two points of tariff refunds in it.

Price $347.73 → Guidance delivered $365 in 12 months

5 podcast statements

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD

AI semis

$568 a share in 12 months and $997 in 36, and a fifth of the upside belongs to the customers. The growth leg is management's own floor, not a central case: the chief executive said on 2026-08-04 that revenue would grow "substantially above" the greater-than-35% target and put no number on the excess. Every input here is a point rather than a range: there is nothing in management's own figures to spread. The dilution is the part with a number: 320M warrant shares at $0.01, against 1632.5M outstanding.

Price $516.79 → Guidance delivered $568 in 12 months

4 podcast statements

Lam Research Corporation LRCX

Semis equipment

$230 today, $232 in 12 months, $238 in 36. The reason is not that the business has stopped growing — the guided December quarter is 61% above the same quarter last year, and Lam now puts its market above $200bn in 2027 — but that the guided quarter has already passed the only multi-year target Lam has published for itself, four years early. Everything past it rests on a wafer-fab-equipment forecast Lam revises each quarter, which is a view of its market rather than a promise about its own revenue.

Price $230.10 → Guidance delivered $232 in 12 months

4 podcast statements

Micron Technology, Inc. MU

Semis memory

The number on this page is 6×, not $878: a share is held at today's price in 12 months and still at $878 in 36. At $878 the market pays about seven times the gross profit of the quarter Micron has guided — $50.0bn of revenue at an 86% margin, annualised. That is not a price that expects the run-rate to last, and Micron has not said it will: the base is 55% above fiscal 2026 as a whole and 5.4 times the whole of fiscal 2025, and the margin in it is more than double fiscal 2025's 39.8% and the highest the company has ever printed. Holding it flat is the generous half of this model; nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held, and the arithmetic alone gives $858 at 36 months.

Price $877.55 → Guidance delivered $878 in 12 months

4 podcast statements

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. NLY

Mortgage REIT

$18 today, $18 in 12 months and $18 in 36. The company grows; the holder barely moves. Company value compounds about 17% a year on management's own recent numbers, and the share count about 15% a year, at the pace of Q2 and Q3 '26. The arithmetic alone gives $18 at 12 months and $18 at 36, so the first bars are held at today's price. Equity sold at roughly book value buys more portfolio and more dividend and leaves the value behind each share about where it was. Everything depends on the price those shares are sold at, and on the marks: book value a share went from $31.88 at the end of '21 to $20.15 at Jun '26, then to $17.86 at Sep '26, down 11.4% in one quarter.

Price $18.35 → Guidance delivered $18.35 in 12 months

4 podcast statements

Broadcom Inc. AVGO

AI semis

Reach the one target management has put on the whole company and hold today's multiple, and a share is worth $417 in 12 months and $780 in 36. Against $322 today. Everything here rests on one sentence from the chief executive on 2026-09-02: on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, which is $601 a share at the end of 2028 on the arithmetic. It is a floor twice over — he says "exceed" and gives no upper figure, and the base is a fourth-quarter exit rate rather than a full year, so there is no range in management's own numbers. 2029 is that same rate carried a third year, which management has not guided.

Price $321.68 → Guidance delivered $417 in 12 months

3 podcast statements

Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER

Platform internet

What they have put numbers on: $86 a share a year out and $154 by October 2029, against $67 today. The rate past 2026 is one quarter's guide carried three years, the most generous reading management's words allow: no framework covers 2027 on, and Delivery Hero, due to close in late 2027 with up to EUR 14.2B of new debt, is in neither the guide nor this figure.

Price $66.70 → Guidance delivered $86.35 in 12 months

3 podcast statements

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSM

AI semis

Grow at the pace the five-year target still allows, earn the margin management calls sustainable, and a share is worth $440 in 12 months and $571 in 36. Against $419 today. That is management's own arithmetic at today's multiple, not a forecast: the growth is only what is left of a 25% CAGR after two years that ran ahead of it, and the margin steps down from 66% toward the 56% floor the CFO calls sustainable. $445 at the end of 2027, $585 at the end of 2029. Every input has a range and the page lists them below; the widest is the margin.

Price $418.51 → Guidance delivered $440 in 12 months

3 podcast statements

Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR

Dev software

If the CEO's own sentences hold: $283 a share in 12 months and $682 in 36, against $197 today. The 2026 guide is the only number on any year. The 2027-2029 path takes the CEO's "maybe 100% next year in the US" and "10x in the US in five years", applied to the US four-fifths of revenue, at the middle of the two, and holds a multiple of 95× forward adjusted operating income. The company itself said on the Q3 '25 call that it does not forecast next year, so these are remarks, not a guide, and the range under the table is wide.

Price $196.75 → Guidance delivered $283 in 12 months

2 podcast statements

QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM

AI semis

$225 a share in 12 months and $394 in 36, if the investor-day target is met. This is the one company in the cluster whose multi-year target is an earnings number rather than a revenue one, and the base it grows from is a trough: the guided quarter is below the year-ago quarter because of the memory shortage and because Apple's share of the next iPhone is now "materially lower" than the 20% management had reaffirmed three months earlier. Every input is a point, not a range. The caution is in the record: eight of eight quarterly guides landed in or above range, and both of the multi-quarter customer-share calls slipped.

Price $175.91 → Guidance delivered $225 in 12 months

2 podcast statements

Citigroup Inc. C

Banks

$121 to $133 in 12 months and $151 in 36, and almost none of it is earnings growth. The company is worth about what it is worth today in every year shown — management pays out more than it earns, so the equity does not compound. What compounds is each share's claim on it, and only while the regulator keeps letting Citi buy stock back: 120bp of CET1 headroom, and the buffer that allows it is frozen only until 2027-10-01.

Price $120.62 → Guidance delivered $133 in 12 months

2 podcast statements

ASML Holding N.V. ASML

Semis equipment

Deliver the 2026 guide and grow into the 2030 target, and a share is worth $1,517 in 12 months and $1,681 in 36, against $1,407 today. The business is growing — the 2026 guide was raised three times, to a midpoint 36% above 2025 — but the guided year already sits at the bottom of the only long-range target ASML has published, four years early, and management took that target off its key messages in July pending a Capital Markets Day on 10 Jun 2027. Holding today's multiple on management's own numbers leaves a modest climb, much of it the step from 2026's margin to the 2030 range.

Price €1,407 → Guidance delivered €1,517 in 12 months

2 podcast statements

American International Group, Inc. AIG

Insurance

$81 today, $88 a share in 12 months and $100 in 36 — a company priced at its own book value. That is the whole observation. AIG trades at about one times the tangible book it reports, so if it earns the 10-13% return it has targeted and keeps handing most of it back, the arithmetic gives the owner something close to the return itself and nothing for a re-rating. The research does not forecast the multiple in either direction.

Price $81.26 → Guidance delivered $87.54 in 12 months

2 podcast statements

IREN Limited IREN

Bitcoin miner AI pivot

Everything delivered, and a share still only goes from $25 to $52 in 12 months and $66 in 36. On management's own capacity and pricing the company is worth about three times as much by the end of 2027 and seven times by the end of 2029; a share goes to $57 at the end of 2027, then $66. The difference is the share count, which goes from 394.1M to about 1.4 billion over the same years.

Price $24.91 → Guidance delivered $51.71 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Nebius Group N.V. NBIS

AI datacenter

Build a gigawatt a year as promised, pay for it the way management describes, with customers prepaying much of the capex, and a share is worth $307 in 12 months and $983 in 36. Against $159 today. Paid for instead at the past pace of share sales and converts, it would be $462 at the end of 2029 against $1,049 on management's plan; the gap between the two is the dilution.

Price $158.74 → Guidance delivered $307 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL

Insurance

$364 today, $423 a share in 12 months and $584 in 36 — on one assumption doing most of the work. The assumption is the rating. Hold today's multiple of book for three years and a return on equity in the low-to-mid twenties does the rest, which is arithmetic rather than insight: Kinsale is priced at several times book, so the whole figure is a bet that it stays there while gross premium falls. The research sets no price target and does not forecast the multiple.

Price $364.49 → Guidance delivered $423 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM

Banks

Earn the 17% management targets, pay out two-thirds of it as the decks have, keep buying stock at the past pace and hold today's three times tangible book, and a share is worth $363 in 12 months and $432 in 36. Against $332 today. That is a slower path than the last two years, when the stock outran book: the arithmetic adds about 5% a year to tangible book from retained earnings and about 3% a year from the shrinking share count, and nothing for the 20–29% returns the firm is earning now, which management calls above the cycle, nor for the ~$40B of excess capital it says it will deploy.

Price $331.58 → Guidance delivered $363 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Bank of America Corporation BAC

Banks

Earn the 17% management targets, keep paying out nearly all of it, keep buying stock at the past pace and hold today's 1.8 times tangible book, and a share is worth $55 in 12 months and $63 in 36. Against $51 today. Almost all of the gain is the shrinking share count: at a 95% payout, tangible book itself barely grows, so the per-share figure rises about as fast as buybacks retire stock. Nothing is counted for a return above 17%, for a change in the multiple, or for the 5–7% net interest income growth guided for 2026.

Price $50.56 → Guidance delivered $54.91 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Verizon Communications Inc. VZ

Telecom carriers

$48 a share in 12 months and $57 in 36, if 2026's guided growth simply carries on. That is what holding today's 9× on management's own 2026 EPS guide gives against $45 today. Verizon puts no number on 2027 or later: the CEO says growth will accelerate and AI network revenue starts next year, and neither is counted here. Behind the equity sits $165B of debt after Frontier, so a small miss in the business is a larger one per share.

Price $44.66 → Guidance delivered $48.33 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Meritage Homes Corporation MTH

Housing

$67 a share in 12 months and $69 in 36, against $64 today. Almost all of that is the buyback, not the business. Company value does not grow in any of these years, because management has stated no growth rate for any of them — the only multi-year target it ever gave, 20,000 closings by 2027, was printed once in April 2025 and never again.

Price $64.19 → Guidance delivered $66.51 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

VersaBank VBNK

Banks

$33 to $34 in 12 months and $37 in 36, because book value grows only at the 6-8% a year the bank keeps of its return. A bank earning 7-9% on its equity and trading at 2× book grows its value at about that rate, and that is all this page can say: the case the stock trades on — "about 20%" at C$10bn of credit assets, a US$3bn funding target for FY2027 — has never been put as a return target, so it is not in the model. Everything above today's price here is retained earnings.

Price C$32.69 → Guidance delivered C$33.73 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT

Semis equipment

$377 today, $385 in 12 months and $406 in 36. Not because the business is not growing — it grew 25% last quarter — but because the growth past this year has no number on it. Today's price already pays for everything Applied has guided, and the gap between $377 and $406 by October 2029 is a service business compounding at mid-teens inside a company that will not frame the other four fifths.

Price $377.24 → Guidance delivered $385 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Lincoln National Corporation LNC

Life annuity

$40 to $41 in 12 months and $43 in 36, on everything management has said coming true. That is the finding, not a disappointment in the model: Lincoln publishes a dated multi-year outlook and has delivered most of it, and it is still worth about what it is worth today, because almost nothing it has guided past 2026 is about earnings. The segment growth ranges it does publish - Annuities 3-5% a year, Group 20-23%, Life 65-70% - run out at 2026, and summed on management's own slide they imply 2026 operating income of $1,492-1,651m against $1,535m in 2025. The growth story nets to flat. Against that, the stock trades at about half the company's own adjusted book value, so the case for owning it was never the earnings path.

Price $39.84 → Guidance delivered $40.52 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Intel Corporation INTC

AI semis

Intel guides one quarter and nothing after it, so a share is worth $87 in 12 months and $87 in 36: today's price, held. At $87 the market pays 16× the gross profit management guides, annualised. This is the thinnest guidance on any of these pages. Intel puts a number on one quarter's revenue, one quarter's margin, this year's operating expenses and this year's capital spending. For 2027 and beyond it offers Intel 14A "committed" to high-volume manufacturing in 2028, capital expenditure "significantly above" 2026's with the figure deliberately withheld, and a foundry break-even target for the end of 2027 that was stated once in January 2025 and never repeated while the segment went on losing $2.1bn a quarter. So nothing here is grown. What does move is the share count: at the pace of the one recent half with no share placement in it, 5285.1M shares become more every year, and the same company value divided by more shares gives $82 at 36 months. Nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held at $87 and the arithmetic's number is printed beside it. Net cash is about -$1.8B — negative, so Intel has slightly more cash than debt once the August raise is counted.

Price $86.96 → Guidance delivered $86.96 in 12 months

1 podcast statement

Cerebras Systems Inc. CBRS

AI semis

Triple the revenue as promised, recognise the backlog on the filed schedule and hold today's multiple, and a share is worth $237 in 12 months and $563 in 36. Against $111 today. That is what management's own numbers imply, and only if the market keeps paying about 100 times core gross profit: $267 at the end of 2027 on the tripling alone, $586 at the end of 2029 on the contracted revenue in the 10-Q, counting nothing signed since June 2026 and no AWS business.

Price $110.82 → Guidance delivered $237 in 12 months

ProPetro Holding Corp. PUMP

Energy materials

$7 today, $14 in 12 months and $18 in 36 if every megawatt arrives and earns what management says. The year-end arithmetic is $15 at the end of 2027 and $19 at the end of 2029. Those are large multiples of today's price, and they are large for a reason that is on management's own slide rather than in any assumption here: 475-525 megawatts deployed by the end of 2027, at $275,000-300,000 of annualised EBITDA each, is $130-145m a year — most of what the entire company earns today — on an enterprise value of about $1.2bn. The page shows what that arithmetic implies, and the rest of the page is about whether to believe it. PROPWR's own adjusted EBITDA was minus $6.0m in the first half of 2026; the per-megawatt rate was dropped from the decks after Q1 2026 before being reaffirmed on the Q2 call; and the completions half, which pays for everything until the megawatts arrive, is contracting.

Price $7.29 → Guidance delivered $14.34 in 12 months

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. ASTS

Space defense

Deliver the satellites and a share is worth $74 in 12 months and $143 in 36, against $40 today. That multiple of today's price is what management's own numbers imply: the market pays today for about 45 satellites that are not yet up (13 were in orbit in August), and the plan adds 38-72 a year after that, so the constellation is three to six times its dated size by 2029. AST missed every satellite date it set in these eight decks; at the pace it actually built in 2025, the bars would be a fraction of these.

Price $39.79 → Guidance delivered $73.67 in 12 months

QXO, Inc. QXO

Building distribution

$16 a share in 12 months and $20 in 36, if the 2030 plan runs on time from the first year. Against $11 today, that is what management's own organic path is worth at today's multiple, $20 at the end of 2028 on the guide alone — and it assumes adjusted EBITDA grows about 14% a year starting in 2026, when the reported margin was 0.1% in Q1 '26 and the base is a pro forma year QXO owned none of the four businesses for in full. Net debt is a bridge, not a balance sheet: debt is as of the 1 Jul '26 closing, but closing-day cash leans on the pro forma's March estimates until the Q3 '26 10-Q.

Price $10.51 → Guidance delivered $15.56 in 12 months

IonQ, Inc. IONQ

Quantum

$45 a share in 12 months and $126 in 36, if revenue keeps doubling every year. That is what holding today's price-to-sales on 100% growth gives against $31 today, over four times the price in three years, because the one rate management has put on revenue is a doubling. Management gave that rate for 2026 alone and none for later years; the revenue guide leaves out SkyWater, which today's price includes; and IonQ still loses money on every measure it reports.

Price $31.27 → Guidance delivered $44.60 in 12 months

Littelfuse, Inc. LFUS

Semis analog

Grow revenue 8-10% a year and reach the 2030 margin target, and a share is worth $480 in 12 months and $517 in 36. Against $351 today. That counts only the business Littelfuse already has; management's bigger 2030 ambition also counts acquisitions not yet made.

Price $351.39 → Guidance delivered $480 in 12 months

Charter Communications, Inc. CHTR

Comms infra

$147 a share in 12 months and $281 in 36, if capex falls as guided and the cash goes to buybacks. On the guide alone that is $297 by the end of 2029, against $109 today — about what management's own slide says when it takes free cash flow per share from $31 to $64. Three things stand between that and a holder. The equity is about a seventh of a company carrying some $109B of debt and $6.0B of Cox preferred, so a small miss in the plant's cash is a large one here. The base excludes Cox while the price includes Cox's units, so the 4× runs high. And the past pace is H1 '26's buyback, which Cox has since stepped out of.

Price $108.61 → Guidance delivered $147 in 12 months

Reddit, Inc. RDDT

Platform internet

$191 a share in 12 months and $390 in 36, if Reddit keeps growing at the one rate it has guided. Against $144 today. That is close to three times today's price, and it is what the guide implies, not a forecast: the only growth rate management states is one quarter's, about 48% on a year earlier, and the page carries it for three more years. Growth has already slowed from 78% to 61% in a year, and U.S. daily users grew 6%, so the later bars lean hardest on a rate nobody has promised.

Price $144.25 → Guidance delivered $191 in 12 months

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. DOCN

AI datacenter

Keep revenue growing at the pace management points to for 2027 and hold today's multiple, and a share is worth $121 in 12 months and $229 in 36. Against $93 today. 2028 and 2029 are not guided; carried at that pace, with the converts counted as shares, the arithmetic gives $128 at the end of 2027 and $242 at the end of 2029.

Price $93.22 → Guidance delivered $121 in 12 months

BillionToOne, Inc. BLLN

Diagnostics

$108 today, $140 in 12 months and $277 in 36 if the growth management guides for 2026 simply continues. That is the whole model, and its weakest joint is the growth rate. Reported growth has fallen from 117% to 113% to 84% to 64% across the four decks, Q2 2026 revenue grew 1% on Q1, and holding 2026's 48–52% for three more years is the fastest honest reading of management's own numbers, not a central one.

Price $107.77 → Guidance delivered $140 in 12 months

JFrog Ltd. FROG

Dev software

$101 today, $128 in 12 months and $172 in 36 if the 2027 model management has shown for three years arrives. This is the one name here whose margin is allowed to rise, because it is the one whose management has put a year on a later margin: 21-23% for 2027, against 17.9-18.4% guided for 2026. That step is 2.6 to 5.1 points in a single year, and the target has not moved since May 2023 while the business grew into it. Take the step out and the figures fall by about a sixth.

Price $100.62 → Guidance delivered $128 in 12 months

Netlist, Inc. NLST

IP licensors

Add Micron's licence at today's multiple and a share is worth $7 in 12 months and still $8 in 36. Against $6 today. Micron's $120M a year at today's multiple of about 11× gross profit lifts the company's value by about three fifths, $8 a share at the end of 2027 on the arithmetic. Nothing after 2027 has a number on it, so the value stays flat and only the share count moves: from October 2028 the figure is held, and the arithmetic alone gives $6 at 36 months.

Price $5.86 → Guidance delivered $7.31 in 12 months

Toast, Inc. TOST

Payments software

$33 today, $41 in 12 months and $66 in 36 if 23-25% holds for three more years. Two cautions, both management's own doing rather than this page's. Adjusted EBITDA adds back the stock pay, which was 10% of recurring gross profit last quarter, so the multiple above is an EBITDA multiple and not an earnings one. And the falling share count is the fragile input: about $100M of the buyback authorisation remained in June, and holding a 4% annual shrink costs about $520M a year at this price.

Price $32.71 → Guidance delivered $40.55 in 12 months

Pampa Energia S.A. PAM

LatAm concessions

What they have put numbers on: $97 an ADS in 12 months, $102 in 36. That is the oil plateau and nothing else. The urea plant, the LNG vessels and the gas pipelines have dates and budgets but no earnings attached, and the free cash outflow management expects for 2026, $400–500M, is not charged.

Price $79.50 → Guidance delivered $97.37 in 12 months

Fluence Energy, Inc. FLNC

Energy storage

$7 a share in 12 months and $11 in 36, against $6 today. Which is what management's own numbers imply, and the reason to distrust them is on the rest of this page: the order book has compounded at 22-30% a year while revenue fell in both of the last two years, and the fiscal 2026 revenue guide was cut from $4.0bn to about $2.4bn across four revisions.

Price $5.59 → Guidance delivered $6.77 in 12 months

Cloudflare, Inc. NET

Dev software

$326 today, $394 in 12 months and $644 in 36 if every number management has put a date on arrives. The only range here is management's own guidance range, and on revenue that range is six million dollars wide. The real uncertainty is whether 31% growth survives three more years, which is not a range anyone has published.

Price $325.73 → Guidance delivered $394 in 12 months

Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA

Platform internet

$120 an ADS in 12 months and $154 in 36, if cloud reaches its US$100bn target at a 20% margin. That is against $100 today, and it is the only part of Alibaba management has put numbers on. It holds a profit base that fell 30-84% a year in each of the last four quarters, and it takes no credit for quick commerce, whose trillion-yuan GMV and FY2029 profit target carry no margin or loss figure.

Price $99.64 → Guidance delivered $120 in 12 months

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. CAI

Diagnostics

$32 today, $38 in 12 months and about $59 in 36 — and it is one growth rate, compounded. Nothing else moves in this model: the multiple is held, the margin is held, and the share count barely grows. It roughly doubles, $62 at the end of 2029 on the guide alone, because 23-28% a year for three years doubles anything, and because the 2025 base those rates are measured against carried $110M of collections on cases billed in earlier periods.

Price $32.00 → Guidance delivered $38.30 in 12 months

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. AMG

Fee intermediaries

If AMG delivers its own long-term rate, $458 a share in 12 months and $658 in 36. Against $383 today, at about 14× economic earnings — a multiple that does not expect the alternatives shift to last. The per-share line climbs faster than the company because the buyback keeps taking about 6% of the shares a year; that is management's plan, paid from cash flow, but it is also why per-share growth flatters the business's own.

Price $383.42 → Guidance delivered $458 in 12 months

The Allstate Corporation ALL

Insurance

Hold today's multiple of book and compound it at the returns Allstate itself publishes, and a share is worth $300 in 12 months and $427 in 36. Against $253 today, and the rate is the argument. Allstate retired its only return target in February 2025 because it was beating it. What is left are its own published averages, and they are less than half the trailing figure. Hold today's multiple of book on the ten-year-to-three-year range and this is the answer, $440 at the end of 2029 on the arithmetic; use the trailing number instead and it is far larger, which is exactly why the market is not paying a high multiple of book for it.

Price $253.19 → Guidance delivered $300 in 12 months

Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD

Fee intermediaries

$111 a share in 12 months and $159 in 36, if revenue keeps outgrowing the cost guide. Against $95 today. Robinhood has never put a number on a year's revenue; the one link to its cost guide is the CFO's word that revenue will grow faster than expenses. That floor is carried for three years, after revenue growth of 52% in 2025 and 15-32% in the first two quarters of 2026, with trading and interest income that move with markets and rates.

Price $95.07 → Guidance delivered $111 in 12 months

Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. AEIS

Semis analog

At $217 the market pays 8× the gross profit management guides, annualised. Hold that, take management's own "over 20%" for next year and its own 43% margin target, and a share is worth $252 in 12 months and $351 in 36. Both men who speak on the calls put 2027 at over 20% and neither gave a ceiling, so this is a floor on their own words rather than a range. 2028 and 2029 are not guided at all and carry the same rate forward, so the $351 at October 2029 is arithmetic rather than a view. The margin leg adds about 2% of it, not most of it: the 43% target carries no date, and the nearest step management does date is "the 42% range by Q4 2026". Net cash is about -$132M — negative, so Advanced Energy holds slightly more cash than converts.

Price $216.63 → Guidance delivered $252 in 12 months

T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS

Telecom carriers

$170 a share in 12 months and $231 in 36, if the 2027 guide is met and its pace simply carries on. That is what holding today's 6× on management's own EBITDA guides gives against $147 today. 2027 is guided ($40-41B of Core Adjusted EBITDA); 2028 and 2029 are not, and carrying 8-9% into them is this page's assumption, not management's. About a quarter of the rise per share is the buyback, and the debt is held flat although management plans to keep borrowing to 2.5x.

Price $146.54 → Guidance delivered $170 in 12 months

Synchrony Financial SYF

Banks

$74 to $85 in 12 months and $104 in 36, almost all of it from buying the shares in. The company is worth slightly less in each year shown, because it pays out more than it earns — but it has retired 44% of its shares since 2020 and 12.4% annualised in the last half, so each remaining share claims more: $106 at the end of 2029. That makes this page a bet on the buyback continuing, which needs a $6.5bn authorisation with about $4.6bn left at September, a credit book that keeps behaving, and the regulator leaving the capital headroom alone.

Price $73.64 → Guidance delivered $85.04 in 12 months

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL

Insurance

$102 today, $117 a share in 12 months and $151 in 36 — and almost none of it is the company getting bigger. At the payout Arch has been running, the equity compounds in the low single digits; the per-share figure moves because there are fewer shares. That makes the buyback the thesis, and the buyback is now part-funded by borrowing.

Price $101.69 → Guidance delivered $117 in 12 months

Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. RYAN

Fee intermediaries

$44 to $50 in 12 months and $64 in 36, and about half of that is the share count. $66 by the end of 2029 on the guide alone, from 14× on the EBITDAC management guides for this year. Two things are missing from the model on purpose, and both were promises. The "double digit organic growth" build-up slide ran in seven decks from May 2024 and is gone from the August 2026 deck, after organic growth fell 12.8% to 10.1% to 8.9% in the first half of 2026 - so the rate used here is the mid-single-digit one management now gives, not the one it used to. And a 35% adjusted EBITDAC margin "by the end of 2027" was given in February 2025, reaffirmed in August and deferred with no new date in October, the month the president left - so the margin here is held at the 30.7-31.2% guided for 2026, which is itself a guided decline. On this company's own current words, three years of delivery is worth about a quarter more than today's price, and the buyback does the rest.

Price $43.68 → Guidance delivered $49.87 in 12 months

Option Care Health, Inc. OPCH

Healthcare services

Grow adjusted EBITDA between the two rates management's own material gives and hold today's multiple, and a share is worth $35 in 12 months and $46 in 36. Against $31 today, on a growth range whose two ends are both management's own. The low end is the +4% management guides for 2026; the high end is the +16% a year its slide titled "Demonstrated Ability to Execute and Deliver on Growth Commitments" claims for 2020-25 — printed in the same deck as a +1% revenue guide. That is the whole argument on this page: the page takes the middle, $36 at the end of 2027 and $47 by 2029, but the range itself runs from a company that stopped growing to one that never did. Management has been asked for a forward growth rate by five analysts across two calls and has not given one.

Price $31.22 → Guidance delivered $35.22 in 12 months

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH

Managed care

$472 a share in 12 months and $618 in 36, if UnitedHealth gets back to the growth rate it never stopped quoting. That is what holding today's 20× on the 2026 guide and growing it at management's 13-16% gives, against $418 today. The same 13-16% was the promise for 2025, and 2025 adjusted EPS fell 41% instead; the 2026 guide, raised three times, is still below 2024's $27.66. Management will not put a number on 2027, and says Medicare Advantage margins recover only after it.

Price $418.09 → Guidance delivered $472 in 12 months

Snap Inc. SNAP

Platform internet

$7 a share in 12 months and $9 in 36, if revenue keeps growing at the one rate guided. That is what holding today's price-to-sales on 13-15% growth gives against $6 today. It assumes the Q3 '26 pace holds for three more years, after two years of 9-15%, and it takes no credit for the promised margin gains, because Snap has never put a number on an operating margin.

Price $6.34 → Guidance delivered $7.10 in 12 months

Axos Financial, Inc. AX

Banks

$92 to $103 in 12 months and $136 in 36, on a return the company reports and never promises. This is the only compounder of the four lenders covered here — almost nothing is paid out, so book value grows at close to the full return on equity. The question is the rate: it has fallen from 21.6% to 17.3% to 16.3% over three years, the incremental return on the $1.77bn of equity added over five years is 14.1%, and holding fiscal 2026's range flat for three more years is the generous reading of a declining series.

Price $91.79 → Guidance delivered $103 in 12 months

Natera, Inc. NTRA

Diagnostics

Management's own numbers, carried forward, get you to $452 a share in 12 months and $624 in 36. From $404 today: about 15% a year, not the 26% the revenue grows at, because the share count takes 5.7% a year out of it. And it holds only if a rate management has not guided for 2027-29 persists and the market still pays 30× gross profit at the end of it.

Price $403.95 → Guidance delivered $452 in 12 months

Amphenol Corporation APH

Electronics mfg

$82 a share in 12 months and $105 in 36, against $74 today. That is Amphenol's own ten-year record carried forward, not the 50-52% growth it is guiding for this quarter — compounding that would be compounding a $10.5bn acquisition three times.

Price $74.09 → Guidance delivered $81.88 in 12 months

Crane NXT, Co. CXT

Industrial OEM

$57 to $63 in 12 months and $71 in 36, on management's own 2028 targets. That is 10× on the EBITDA it guides for this year, held. Two things sit behind that. The growth rate is the core one - management's 2028 revenue target of about $2.5bn explicitly includes acquisitions it has not announced, so growing this year's guided $1.91-1.94bn at 4-6% reaches about $2.2bn, and the gap is deals. And the low end of the margin target is where the margin already is, so the bottom of this range assumes no improvement at all. What the model cannot capture is the record of the last three years: about $1.08bn spent on acquisitions against $732m of operating cash flow, with operating profit falling while it was spent.

Price $56.88 → Guidance delivered $62.56 in 12 months

Aegon Ltd. AEG

Life annuity

$7 to $8 in 12 months and $10 in 36, on everything management has said coming true. It is one number compounding: free cash flow up about 5% a year, divided by fewer shares, and $10 at the end of 2029 on the guide alone. Management has a record of delivering this measure: EUR 829m for 2025 against a first guide of ~EUR 800m. There is no range because management gives points, not ranges. The risk is not in the arithmetic but in the yardstick. Free cash flow is measured under the IFRS-era framework, the first US GAAP year is FY27, and the chief financial officer declined on a call to say how US GAAP will compare.

Price €7.31 → Guidance delivered €8.03 in 12 months

NCR Voyix Corporation VYX

Payments software

$9 a share in 12 months and $11 in 36, on a company whose own guide grows 3-7% a year. This is the cheapest multiple on any page in this format — 5× enterprise value on management's own 2026 adjusted EBITDA — and that is the whole of the story. Nothing here compounds: carry the same rate out to the end of 2029 and it is $11. Two things sit between that arithmetic and a holder: the 3-7% is measured against a pro forma base about $418M rather than the $425M actually reported, and the adjusted EBITDA it is measured on added back $124M of 2025 restructuring.

Price $8.39 → Guidance delivered $9.20 in 12 months

Inter & Co, Inc. INTR

LatAm banks

$36 to $40 in 12 months and $50 in 36, in reais. ROE simply staying at 14-16%, with 80% of it kept, gives that, and $51 at the end of 2029. It is a floor management has already reached, not its plan: the 30% target the stock was sold on is left out because it lost its date. Every quarter ROE keeps rising is upside to this line; every quarter credit costs keep rising, as they have from 4.6% to 5.9%, is downside.

Price BRL 36.28 → Guidance delivered BRL 39.78 in 12 months

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM

US consumer

Grow earnings with sales at 5.5-6.5% a year, the only rate Sprouts guides, and a share is worth $72 in 12 months and $85 in 36. Against $66 today, at today's multiple of about 9× earnings. Buybacks shrink the count, and the arithmetic reaches $80 at the end of 2028 and about $87 by 2029.

Price $66.26 → Guidance delivered $71.93 in 12 months

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. HHH

Holding co.

$70 today, $76 in 12 months and $94 in 36 — at the same 32% discount, not a smaller one. Management says its own assets are worth $104 a share today and $211 at the end of 2030. The market pays $70. This page does not bet on that gap narrowing by a single point; it just applies the same 1× times to a larger number each year, which is why $76 looks modest beside management's $104. Read the composition before the total: in management's own 2030 table the real estate falls about 1% a year and the insurer's book value rises 21% a year, re-rated on a multiple management lifts from 1.5 to 2.0 times tangible book. Take out the $0.7bn of investments not yet made and the 58%-to-100% repurchase of the preferred that has not happened, and the rate is 7.7% rather than 16.3%.

Price $70.19 → Guidance delivered $76.15 in 12 months

Nokia Oyj NOK

Comms infra

$8 a share in 12 months and $9 in 36, if the 2028 target is met. From $7 today. The only moving part is management's own 2028 band, which works out at 7–17% a year of profit growth. Two cautions sit under it: the profit in question leaves out restructuring, €1.1B of it expected in 2026 alone (raised from €800M in October), and the 2028 target was set by a team whose first full-year guide is still open.

Price €7.37 → Guidance delivered €7.87 in 12 months

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS

Space defense

If they deliver: $41 a share in 12 months, $46 in 36. Company value grows with management's 18-23% a year, but the share count grows about 11.5% a year at the past pace, so most of the growth goes to the new shares.

Price $38.68 → Guidance delivered $40.91 in 12 months

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte OMAB

LatAm concessions

What the guide supports: $242 a share in 12 months and $250 in 36, in today's pesos. A slow compounder on paper, against $229 today, because the tariff path is fixed and falls in real terms. What the figure leaves out is the dividend: about 90% of earnings are paid out every year, and none of it is counted here.

Price MXN 229 → Guidance delivered MXN 242 in 12 months

American Tower Corporation AMT

Tower REIT

$199 a share in 12 months and $226 in 36, if the CFO's long-term growth range arrives on time. That is what holding today's 17× on management's own 2026 AFFO guide gives against $189 today. 2026 itself is guided at about +3%, after DISH stopped paying, and management calls it the trough; the 5-8% for 2027-29 is a stated long-term range, called "aspirational" on the same call and quoted before currency and interest-rate swings. Behind the equity sits $35.4B of net debt at 4.9x EBITDA, so a slower recovery is a larger miss per share.

Price $188.97 → Guidance delivered $199 in 12 months

Rocket Lab Corporation RKLB

Space defense

$55 a share in 12 months and $73 in 36, against $53 today. The company's value nearly triples over the three years on these numbers and the share price rises far less, from $53 to $73, because the share count rises with it. That is the whole argument on this page: the growth is real and reliably guided, the dilution that pays for it is the thing to watch, and Neutron — the reason the multiple is what it is — has never flown.

Price $52.60 → Guidance delivered $55.25 in 12 months

Coinbase Global, Inc. COIN

Fee intermediaries

Deliver next quarter's guide and nothing more, keep buying back stock at the H1 '26 pace, and a share is worth $171 in October 2027 and $182 in October 2029. Against $164 today. Management has put a number on one quarter of subscription revenue and on this year's costs, and on no year's revenue, margin or profit, so the figure is today's value spread over fewer shares.

Price $164.45 → Guidance delivered $171 in 12 months

Banco Macro S.A. BMA

LatAm banks

$10,870 to $11,296 in 12 months and $12,413 in 36, in today's pesos. Management's own 9-12% real return, less the 48-60% paid out, grows book value about 4-6% a year after inflation, which is $12,522 a share at the end of 2029. That is the whole of it: the guide was raised in August on margins, while bad loans tripled in a year and the reserve fell below them, and every return guide this team gave for 2025 was cut before the year ended.

Price ARS 10,870 → Guidance delivered ARS 11,296 in 12 months

First American Financial Corporation FAF

Housing volume

$65 today, $67 in 12 months and still $67 in 36. A company that guides nothing moves a page very little. The one line with a figure behind it is earned in 2026 and is worth under 1% to about 6% above today. After that nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held; the arithmetic alone gives $66 at 36 months. Read that as a measurement of the disclosure rather than of the business. That one line is commercial revenue making a record year above the $1,042m of 2022: $883m after nine months, with $339m earned in Q4 2025. At the title margin it is worth $4-40m of pre-tax income on a base of $849m. Everything else management has said about the future — a purchase market recovering, investment income growing moderately, technology platforms in early rollout — carries no number at all, so this page holds it where it is rather than inventing a rate for it.

Price $64.72 → Guidance delivered $66.53 in 12 months

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. TNDM

Medtech

Deliver the whole guide for three more years and the shares are worth about what they cost today: $18 in 12 months, $19 in 36. $17 now against $19 by October 2029. Growing gross profit 5-7% a year while the share count grows 3.7% leaves almost nothing per share, and that is management's own guide met in full, before anything is paid to retire the 2029 notes.

Price $17.43 → Guidance delivered $17.58 in 12 months

Moderna, Inc. MRNA

Pharma

$202 a share in 12 months and $210 in 36, if revenue keeps growing at the up-to-10% guided. That is what holding today's price-to-sales on 0-10% growth gives against $200 today. The price nearly tripled on 19 Aug '26 and has kept rising, so the multiple held is about forty times a revenue line that is still below 2024's; the figure moves with the share price, not with anything management has guided past 2026.

Price $200.10 → Guidance delivered $202 in 12 months

Cybin Inc. HELP

Biotech binary

Deliver the plan and a share is $10 in 12 months and still $10 in 36. Management guides only what it will spend, so the arithmetic alone takes value away, about $9 at 12 months and $6 at 36; nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the page holds the figure at today's $10. The APPROACH readout in Q4 '26 is what moves this, in either direction, and nothing management has put a number on prices it.

Price $10.19 → Guidance delivered $10.19 in 12 months

Cipher Digital Inc. CIFR

Bitcoin miner AI pivot

Built their way: a share is held at $8 in 12 months, then $9 in 36. The build comes before the rent: each year's sites are borrowed for a year before they pay, so the arithmetic alone gives $3 at 12 months and $-4 at 24, below $8 today. Nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count over those months, so the figure is held at today's price. The rent takes it to $9 at 36 months and $9 by the end of 2029.

Price $7.94 → Guidance delivered $7.94 in 12 months

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. AMC

Media entertainment

$3 a share in 12 months and $3 in 36, held there: management's own numbers carry no growth. Against $3 today. AMC's forecasts are about the industry box office and stopped carrying a number after 2025's, which missed, so nothing here grows while the share count keeps rising at its past pace. The arithmetic alone falls to $1 at 36 months; the page holds the figure instead.It takes no credit for the 2026 box-office rebound, which management has described but not put a number on.

Price $2.90 → Guidance delivered $2.90 in 12 months

COMPASS Pathways plc CMPS

Biotech binary

Deliver every date and a share is worth $11 in 12 months and no more in 36, today's price held, because the dates come with no sales number. Against $11 today. Approval, rescheduling and a launch are all guided; what a course of treatment will cost and how many patients will take it are not, so the only thing the arithmetic can do is spend the cash: it alone gives about $9 at the end of 2027 and $6 at the end of 2029. Nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held.

Price $11.18 → Guidance delivered $11.18 in 12 months

Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. EOSE

Energy storage

$2 a share in 12 months and $2 in 36, held at today's $2; the arithmetic alone gives $1 and $1. Management's numbers stop at 2026: no revenue level, growth rate or capacity is given for any later year. So the company is worth what it is worth today, and the arithmetic gives each share less because the share count has grown by more than a quarter a year, with every raise also re-setting what Cerberus's preferred converts into; on the page the figure is held, since nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count.

Price $1.73 → Guidance delivered $1.73 in 12 months

GameStop Corp. GME

US consumer

About $25 a share in 36 months against $25 today: GameStop's own numbers stop at fiscal 2026. The one forward figure management gives is fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of more than $650 million, and it is a floor with no top. Held flat at today's multiple of about 16×, the arithmetic gives $25. The bitcoin and the 43.4 million eBay shares, about $5.2 billion at 1 Aug '26, are left out of cash, so the multiple is higher than it would be with them counted.

Price $24.82 → Guidance delivered $24.82 in 12 months

Hut 8 Corp. HUT

Bitcoin miner AI pivot

The rent is already in the price: $61 a share in 12 months, held at today's, and $74 in 36. At $61 the market pays 9× the rent management says it has contracted, for buildings that do not exist yet and a first payment due in Q3 2027. To October 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the 12-month figure is held; the arithmetic alone gives $61. Deliver all three leases, borrow the next build and the shares are worth $74 in 36 months, and that assumes some of the pipeline converts.

Price $61.23 → Guidance delivered $61.23 in 12 months

Leef Brands Inc. LEEF.CN

Canada smallcap

$0 a share in 12 months and still $0 at 36, today's $0 held — even if the margin target is hit. Management's one number, a ~50% gross margin, lifts the company's value by two-thirds; the share count has been growing faster than that, so the figure is held and the arithmetic alone gives $0 at 12 months and $0 at 36. And the auditor doubts the company can continue as a going concern, which no line on this chart can show.

Price $0.15 → Guidance delivered $0.15 in 12 months

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. MPWR

Semis analog

Deliver the quarter guided and hold today's multiple, and a share is worth $1,140 in 12 months and still $1,140 in 36: today's price, held. Against $1,140 today. At 21× the guided run-rate's gross profit this is the dearest company in this format, and the only growth management has put a number on ends with the quarter it has guided, so from October 2027 the figure is held; the arithmetic alone, with the share count rising, gives $1,075 at 36 months and $1,072 at the end of 2029. Capacity is not revenue: the $4bn capacity plan was reported when annual revenue was $2.8bn, so $6bn of it implies about $4.3bn — below the run-rate already guided. Meanwhile the $500m repurchase authorisation of February 2025 has gone unused for seventeen months while share-based pay keeps the count rising.

Price $1,140.12 → Guidance delivered $1,140 in 12 months

Strategy Inc MSTR

Bitcoin treasury

$146 a share in October 2027 and $166 in October 2029, if bitcoin per share grows 10% a year and bitcoin's price stands still. Against $146 today. Strategy's value is bitcoin's price times its leverage, and management puts no number on bitcoin's price: the one it used, $150K for 2025, missed by 42%. Holding the price flat leaves only management's own driver, bitcoin per share, which grew 22.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 to late July. A share is worth more only if new stock and preferred keep selling above the bitcoin they buy.

Price $146.01 → Guidance delivered $146 in 12 months

Nektar Therapeutics NKTR

Biotech binary

Deliver the spending plan with no readout and a share is held at $37, today's price, from 12 months out to 36. Nothing management has put a number on grows the business before a Phase 3 reads, so nothing grows faster than the share count and the figure stays at $37; the arithmetic alone gives $31 at 12 months and $15 at 36, the cash being spent on the trials at the 2026 rate. Management's own runway says the rate rises from 2027, so even that arithmetic flatters. The price is the cash plus an option on the Phase 3 data.

Price $37.22 → Guidance delivered $37.22 in 12 months

Keel Infrastructure Corp. KEEL

Bitcoin miner AI pivot

Valued on management's own yardstick, megawatts dated for 2027: deliver them and what comes after, and a share is worth $3 in 12 months and $4 in 36. Against $2 today, holding today's value per dated megawatt, with the notes counted as stock. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held; delivering the 478 MW of 2027 sites and Sherbrooke after them makes a share worth $4 at the end of 2028, and $5 by 2030 if the 2 GW ambition is met. None of it is leased yet, and ten of sixteen dated promises in the decks were missed.

Price $2.17 → $3.82 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +29% a year

GitLab Inc. GTLB

Dev software

$56 today, $59 in 12 months and $81 in 36 if the guided rates hold for three more years. Two things do the work and both are management's own. The margin is held at the 13% guided for this year rather than the 17% actually earned last year, because the guide reinvests and GitLab states no later margin target at all. And the share count falls, which it has never done before: holding that needs about $250M a year of buyback and $245.3M of the authorisation remained in July.

Price $56.28 → $69.95 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +10% a year

Sandisk Corporation SNDK

Semis memory

If Sandisk delivers its own long-term model, a share is worth $1,262 in 12 months and $1,642 in 36. Against $1,238 today. The market pays about seven times the gross profit of the quarter Sandisk has guided — the multiple of a business expected to fall back, not of one growing in the high teens. What closes the gap is whether the 80% margin holds through 2030, and that rests on contract floors nobody outside the company can see.

Price $1,238.03 → $1,428 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +7% a year

NetApp, Inc. NTAP

Data infra

Keep revenue growing at last quarter's 14% with the guided margin, and a share is worth $218 in 12 months and $280 in 36. Against $215 today. NetApp guides one year only, so the rate and the margin are carried forward unchanged; buybacks shrink the count, and the arithmetic gives $287 at the end of 2029 and $330 at the end of 2030.

Price $215.48 → $250 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +7% a year

Aduro Clean Technologies Inc. ADUR

Canada smallcap

If the plant arrives on schedule: $14 a share in 12 months and $14 in 36, held at today's price. To the end of 2028, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's $14; after that nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so it stays held, and the arithmetic alone gives $11 at 36 months. The value grows only if a commercial site follows the first plant, and the share count grows at the pace of the last fifteen months, when Aduro raised money three times.

Price C$13.67. Their own numbers give C$11.26 a share by the end of 2029, below today's, so it is held at today's price.

Arm Holdings plc ARM

IP licensors

$210 a share in 12 months and $412 in 36, if the FYE31 target is on track. The 12-month figure is held: to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so it is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution; the arithmetic alone gives $207. From there the line runs to $639 a share by March 2030 on the guide alone, about three times today's price, and it is what management's own numbers imply: more than $9 of earnings a share in FYE31 against a guided quarter that annualises to $1.88. Sixty per cent of the $25bn of revenue behind that target is a chip business, the Arm AGI CPU, that had no revenue when the target was set, and the deck's ramp chart shows only the final year. Every input is a point, not a range. The caution is in the record: every written quarterly guide landed at or above its midpoint, while the spoken royalty colour was cut every year. For scale, the chief executive's new award pays its second tranche at a $1.5 trillion market value by March 2030; this line puts the company near $0.97 trillion then.

Price $210.33 → $301 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +18% a year

Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE

Comms infra

$756 a share in 12 months and $756 in 36, against $756 today: the price already pays for the guided quarter and nothing after it. Lumentum guides one quarter at a time. Its only bigger number, a $2B-a-quarter revenue goal 60% above the Q1 FY27 guide, has no date in any deck or call archived, so it is not in the figure. Hold today's multiple and the guided run-rate and dilution alone takes the arithmetic to $615 in 36 months; the page holds the figure level instead.

Price $756.17. Their own numbers give $636 a share by the end of 2028, below today's, so it is held at today's price.

Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL

AI semis

At $229 the market pays 29× the gross profit management guides for this year. Hold that and management's own ~45-50% growth, and a share is worth $229 in 12 months and $459 in 36. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's price. Only fiscal 2028 is guided. Carrying the same rate through the two years after it is what produces $717 at the end of 2030, and nothing beyond fiscal 2028 rests on a management number — which is why the later bars should be read as arithmetic, not as a view. Net debt is about $1.0B, small enough that the value is almost all equity.

Price $228.51 → $333 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +19% a year

NIKE, Inc. NKE

US consumer

About $37 a share in 36 months against $37 today: NIKE's own numbers stop at FY2027. The only full-year figure management gives is FY2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15-1.35, down from $2.10 GAAP in FY2026. Held flat at today's multiple of about 27×, stock pay alone takes the arithmetic to $37, so the bar is held level.It shows that management has not yet put a number on a recovery. The long-term objectives are promised for the November 2026 Investor Day.

Price $37.30. Their own numbers give $36.80 a share by the end of 2028, below today's, so it is held at today's price.

Oklo Inc. OKLO

Power nuclear

Deliver every dated megawatt and a share is worth no more than today: $26 in 12 months and the same in 36, held at today's price. At $26 the market values one 75 MWe plant due in 2028 and a campus with a first phase around 2030. To the end of 2028, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price. After that nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure stays held; the arithmetic alone gives $13 at 36 months if both arrive on time and Oklo keeps selling stock at this year's pace: the share count grows faster than the dated megawatts.

Price $26.35. Their own numbers give $13.19 a share by the end of 2029, below today's, so it is held at today's price.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI

Electronics mfg

$76 a share in 36 months against $33 today, if 60% growth a year holds; nothing in the next 12. Today's price already pays for the FY27 guide of $65-72B, so the first year adds nothing; the rise after it is the chief executive's "more than 60%" a year, compounded. The 60% is twenty months old and never repeated; the year it was said in grew 47%, and that year's first guide landed 15% under its low end. Q1 FY27 came in at an estimated $18.5-19.5B against a $14.5-15.5B guide, but the year's $65-72B has not been restated; that waits for the 3 Nov call.

Price $32.94 → $51.58 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +23% a year

T1 Energy Inc. TE

Clean energy mfg

Management's own 2027 run rate, at today's multiple, is worth $2 a share in 12 months and still $3 in 36, roughly today's price. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's $2; the arithmetic alone gives $2, and $2 at 24 months, where it is held again. All of the upside on this chart is G2 Phase 2 — a second cell line with no financing, no capex figure and no date in any deck — and most of it is eaten by the share count, which is up about 89% in a year. The page is a test of one question: whether a company that has missed every annual profit guide it has given can finance and run a cell fab.

Price $2.29 → $2.35 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +1% a year

TMC the metals company Inc. TMC

Mining materials

If the tonnes arrive on their schedule: $2 a share in 12 months, today's price held, and $4 in 36. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's price; the arithmetic alone gives $2. After that it rests on tonnage alone, $3 a share at the end of 2028. No deck prices a tonne, costs the build or says how TMC pays its share, and the share count grows only at its past pace, with no raise for the build.

Price $2.43 → $3.04 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +11% a year

TTM Technologies, Inc. TTMI

Electronics mfg

$80 a share in 12 months and $101 in 36, against $80 today. The 2027 guide of $6.5-6.75B sets the multiple, so the value grows only past it. The later years use management's own 15-20% range, not the 45-51% the 2027 guide implies: that year holds two acquisitions and one customer programme's ramp, and compounding it would capitalise both as a run-rate.

Price $80.11 → $88.85 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +5% a year

Zscaler, Inc. ZS

Cyber software

Grow revenue at the 16.6-17.5% on this year's guide, at the guided margin, and a share is worth $308 in 36 months; in 12 it is held at today's $255. Against $255 today. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's price; the arithmetic alone gives $247. Nothing past fiscal 2027 is guided, so the rate is carried forward; the $1.70B of converts are not counted as shares.

Price $255.15 → $278 by the end of 2028 if guidance is delivered, +4% a year