TET1 Energy Inc.

Industry Clean energy mfg Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$2.29 → $2.35

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$2 → $2

One guided year on: +1% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $2.29, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $2.35 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $2.29 is +1% a year, $2.32 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

hold today's enterprise value multiple — about 3× the 2027 run-rate Adjusted EBITDA management guides — and move that run rate from the Phase 1 tier to the both-phases tier over the three years, at 13.0% to 23.1% a year. Then take off net debt of $471M and divide by 330.3M shares growing at the pace of the last half. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharescommon plus the 35.7M shares the preferred converts into, up 9.7% a year as in the half to Jun '26	$2	$2373M sh · held	$2410M sh	$3449M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Today's enterprise value over the profit figure management guides for 2027: $375-450M of integrated run-rate Adjusted EBITDA with G1 at 5 GW and G2 Phase 1 at 2.1 GW. That is about 3×. There is no earlier multiple to use: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was minus $65.0M against a $25-50M guide, and no 2026 figure has been given.
Why the base year is 2027. It is the only year with a positive profit number attached, and the number rests on a cell fab whose first production slipped from the second half of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027 and whose Phase 1 financing has been bridged twice rather than closed — $120.0M of convertible notes on 31 July and another $50.0M agreed on 28 September. If the fab is late again, so is the base year.
The unguided years. From the second tier in the same sentence: $650-700M with both G2 phases at 5 GW instead of 2.1 GW. Spread evenly over the three years that is 13.0% to 23.1% a year, so the arithmetic at the end of 2030 is simply the both-phases run rate at today's multiple, $3 a share. 2028 and 2029 are an interpolation between two stated levels, because Phase 2 has no date, and the 36-month bar in October 2029 is read along that line.
Per share. Company value less net debt of $471M, divided by the share count. Economic shares are 330.3M at 30 Jun 2026: the common count plus the 35.7M shares the Encompass preferred converts into at $1.70 and $1.90. Left out as debt rather than stock: three convertible series with $499.0M of principal at $4.46, $6.80 and $6.93 conversion prices, and the $11.50 warrants from the 2021 listing. The count grows 9.7% a year here, the pace of the cleanest recent half; the authorised count was doubled to a billion shares in June, and $73.0M of Evervolt tranches may be paid in stock.
Held. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's price; the arithmetic alone gives $2. At 24 months nothing management has put a number on has yet grown the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $2. By 36 months the Phase 2 tier outruns the count and the bar is the arithmetic's own $3.
What this is not. It is the arithmetic of the one forward profit number management states, on a company whose every annual Adjusted EBITDA guide has been missed.

Promises vs. what happened

16 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
G1 loan converts to a term loan by Apr '25	Q4 '24	converted	Held
G1 at a 4.5 GW run rate in Q4 '25	Q3 '25	reached	Held
First G2 offtake by end '25	Q3 '25	signed	Held
Second G2 offtake in Q2 '26	Q4 '25	signed	Held
Year-end '25 cash above $100M	Q1 '25	met, on $440M+ of Q4 raises	Late
Wilmer at 5.2 GW nameplate by Nov '25	Q3 '24	about 3.7 GW annualised	Late
45X credits monetised from Q3 '25	Q1 '25	$160M at $0.91, two quarters late	Late
50% non-FEOC and 70% US content by end '25	Q2 '25	percentages stopped being reported	Dropped
2026 production 3.1-4.2 GW	Q4 '25	open — 1.62 GW in H1	Open
2027 run-rate EBITDA $375-450M, $650-700M at 5 GW	Q4 '25	open — the base of this page	Open
Wilmer earns $75-125M of EBITDA in '25	Q3 '24	-$65.0M	Missed
2025 EBITDA cut to $25-50M	Q1 '25	-$65.0M, $90M below the floor	Missed
5.0 GW cell plant, $850M, producing H2 '26	Q3 '24	became 2.1 GW for about $510M	Missed
G2 cells from Q4 '26	Q4 '24	moved to Q1 '27	Missed
G2 Phase 1 funded by Apr '26	Q4 '25	bridged twice; still targeted	Missed
A 2026 EBITDA guide after Section 232	Q1 '26	never given; the column is gone	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

G1 rampOff page one Q2 '25

IntegrationPage one since Q2 '26

45XOff page one Q1 '26

AI demandOff page one Q2 '26

G2 fabOff page one Q2 '26

FinancingPage one since Q4 '25

TariffsNew Q1 '25 · Page one since Q1 '26

Cash flowFirst seen Q4 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

G1_Dallas module ramp

Q4 '24 · headline page

“» G1 Dallas U.S. solar module production ramp is ahead of plan”

Deck Q4 2024 Earnings presentation · p. 4 (OCR) · 17 Mar 2025

G1_Dallas module ramp

Q1 '25 · headline page

“# G1 Dallas is fully installed, commissioned, and operational for design capacity of 5.0 GW”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings presentation · p. 6 (OCR) · 15 May 2025