The Ledger

KEELKeel Infrastructure Corp.

Industry Bitcoin miner AI pivot Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$2.17 → $3.82

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$2 → $3

One guided year on: +29% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $3.04, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $3.82 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $2.17 is +29% a year, $2.81 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Value holds today's enterprise value per megawatt dated for 2027, the 478 gross MW at Panther Creek, Sharon and Moses Lake, which is the yardstick management itself set against its peers, and adds the megawatts it says come next: Sherbrooke's 96 MW alone at the low end, 2 GW by 2030 at the high end. Nothing is leased, so no rent or margin is assumed. The convertible notes are counted as stock. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution.

0$1$2$3$4$5Today (Oct 2026): $2, the market price$2TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $3 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$312 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $4 a share if management delivers$424 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $4 a share if management delivers$436 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace, all shares + convertsshares +5% a year as in H1 '26, plus ~147M shares from the two convertible notes$2$3803M sh · held$4837M sh$4872M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The sites. Panther Creek 350 MW, Sharon 110 MW and Moses Lake 18 MW gross, each with an earliest ready-for-service date of 2027 (Q2 '26 deck). Zoning is approved at all three and environmental permits are still in progress; no construction start is reported.
  2. What comes after. Sherbrooke, 96 MW, earliest ready-for-service 2028 once Quebec approves its power contract; Scrubgrass, a 750 MW load study with no date. Management speaks of over 2 GW in 2028 and beyond and of energised megawatts through 2030 (Q4 '25 and Q2 '26 calls). Low end: Sherbrooke only, spread over 2028-30; high end: 2 GW by the end of 2030.
  3. Why no rent. No lease is signed, and management has twice declined to give a build cost or a yield per megawatt (Q1 and Q2 '26 calls). So the value per megawatt is today's, held: what the market pays for dated power, not what a leased megawatt earns.
  4. Funding. None stated beyond saying each site can be financed. $1.05bn of convertible notes was raised in Oct '25 and Jun '26, the second earmarked for more power capacity in Pennsylvania. The cost of building the sites is not charged here, because management has not stated it.
  5. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Net debt today is $178M (the notes less cash and bitcoin) against 617.6M shares; in the figure shown the notes become 147M shares and leave the debt. The share pace is H1 '26's, when 15.2m shares came from exercises and vesting and none were sold.
  6. Held. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure, October 2027, is held rather than shown falling with the dilution.

Promises vs. what happened

16 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The megawatts keep getting bigger and later. Of sixteen dated claims ten were missed; the mining targets came closest, the data-centre dates moved every quarter.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
19 w/TH by H1 '25Q3 '2417 w/TH, betterHeld
US GAAP and a US redomicileQ3 '25done Apr '26Held
2025 capex under $100MQ4 '24never reported againDropped
GPU cloud at Moses LakeQ3 '25dropped for leasingDropped
Sharon 80 MW substation by YE '26Q3 '25open; transformers on siteOpen
Three leases in 2026Q1 '26open; none signed by Aug '26Open
21 EH/s by H1 '25Q3 '2417.7 EH/s in Aug '25Missed
950+ MW in 2025Q3 '24341 MW energisedMissed
200 MW in Paraguay, H1 '25Q3 '24site soldMissed
HPC partners in 2025Q3 '24none; delivery now 2027Missed
Mining cash flow through 2026Q4 '24mining shut; EBITDA -$24MMissed
$300M loan for Panther Creek, no dilutionQ1 '25repaid unbuilt; converts insteadMissed
Panther Creek 50 MW '26, 300 MW '27Q2 '25earliest 2027, no phasesMissed
Groundbreaking in Q4 '25Q2 '25permits still pending Aug '26Missed
Moses Lake done Dec '26Q3 '25now online in 2027Missed
Panther Creek beyond 500 MWQ3 '25350 MW; 500 now a ceilingMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

PipelinePage one since Q4 '25

MiningOff page one Q3 '25

HPC sitesPage one since Q1 '26

US pivotOff page one Q2 '25

AI demandOff page one Q4 '25

LiquidityPage one since Q2 '26

Peer valueFirst seen Q4 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“CLEAR PATH TO 1.6 GW OF POWER CAPACITY”

Deck Q3 2024 Earnings Call · p. 7 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Clear Path to 1.4+ GW of Power Capacity”

Deck Q4 & FY 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Clear Path to 1.4+ GW of Power Capacity 22 43% 23% 14% 394”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 22 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Strategically positioned to meet surging demand for HPC/AI with power, land and fiber coast-to-coast.”

Deck Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 6 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Bitfarms has the largest portfolio of power infrastructure assets in what are some of the most in demand regions for HPC/AI in North America.1”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 6 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Engineered to Perform 1 2.2 GW development pipeline designed for powered shell and colocation operations 1 3 Well capitalized to advance near-term sites through permitting and leasing 2 Regional leaders in some of the highest-demand markets for power in North America 2 4 Repositioned for sustainable growth through 2028+”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Energized Capacity 1 430 MW”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

Power pipeline in megawatts

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Pipeline growth for 2028 & beyond remains key priority”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q3 '24 · headline page

“B I T M A I N M I N E R U P G R A D E TO I M P R O V E H A S H R AT E & E F F I C I E N C Y 21 EH/s”

Deck Q3 2024 Earnings Call · p. 10 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q4 '24 · headline page

“✓ Nearly tripled EHuM”

Deck Q4 & FY 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Strong & profitable underlying BTC mining ops provide free cash flow to fund operations”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q2 '25 · headline page

“✓ Solid, free cash flow foundation to build HPC/AI business”

Deck Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Monthly Free Cash Flow from”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 15 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“BTC mining operation wind down”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Bitcoin mining fleet and cash flow

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Decommissioned BTC mining and demolished building in Moses Lake”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“D I V E R S I F I C AT I O N B E YO N D BTC M I N I N G W I T H U . S . H P C /A I P I L OT S I T E 12”

Deck Q3 2024 Earnings Call · p. 12 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“All Three Pennsylvania Sites Well-Suited for HPC/AI Conversion”

Deck Q4 & FY 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Secured world-class HPC/AI team 2 key HPC/AI & Infrastructure hires and strong external partners WWT & ASG”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“HPC/AI development progressing at flagship Panther Creek campus backed by top advisors, strategic partners, and financing 1 GW Pennsylvania pipeline strategically located in emerging AI hub fueled by massive regional investment”

Deck Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 11 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Designed for GB300”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Halfway Through Three-Year Strategic Plan”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Execute Leases at Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

HPC/AI conversion of the sites

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Dual tracking permitting and leasing discussions”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Expanding in the U.S., particularly in attractive”

Deck Q3 2024 Earnings Call · p. 5 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Strategic Acquisition of Stronghold1 Strategic Sale of Yguazu (Paraguay)3 2 Sites”

Deck Q4 & FY 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q1 '25 · headline page

“U.S.-focused digital infrastructure company”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Strategic U.S. Pivot”

Deck Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 10 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“working towards U.S. redomicile in 20263”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 13 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Redomiciled to U.S. and rebranded 1”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

U.S. pivot, redomicile and rebrand

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“U.S. redomicile and Keel rebrand LATAM exit”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

AI demand as the market case

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Bitfarms Well-Positioned to Capitalize on Surging Demand for Compute Power”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI demand as the market case

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Infrastructure is not a bubble 8.8 %”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI demand as the market case

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Lease rates rising as predicted; shovel-ready sites strengthen negotiating leverage​ 6”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·

AI demand as the market case

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

““Work is no longer measured solely in calories or joules, but in tokens. And while there is certainly some ceiling on the price of tokens, there is truly no limit to the value that can be created through the application of tokens.””

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 12 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“$146M”

Deck Q3 2024 Earnings Call · p. 17 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Liquidity at 3.26.25*”

Deck Q4 & FY 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 15 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Liquidity at 5.13.25*”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 14 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Liquidity at 8.11.25”

Deck Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 16 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Cash & Bitcoin1 on-hand, remaining funds available to draw from Macquarie facility2”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 17 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“$520mm current liquidity after eliminating legacy corporate debt 1 4”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“►And, cover Keel’s G&A through 2028 1 ALLOCATION 2 FORMATION 3 STRUCTURE”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 12 ·

Liquidity to fund the plan

Q2 '26 · headline page

“$819mm Liquidity Position 1”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 11 ·

Valuation against peers per MW

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Bitcoin Miners EV / 2027 MW ($mm) 1,2 1.5”

Deck FY 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

Valuation against peers per MW

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Bitcoin Miners EV / 2027 MW ($/Watt) 1,2”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Pipeline
In every deck: 1.6 GW, then 1.4+ GW after the Paraguay sale, 1.9 GW in Pennsylvania alone, 2.2 GW from FY2025; Q2 '26 drops the summary.
Mining
The lead through Q2 '25, a funding source in Q3 '25, wound down from FY2025 and decommissioned by Q2 '26.
HPC sites
From a 1-2 MW pilot in Q3 '24 to GPU generations in Q3 '25 to powered-shell and colocation leases from FY2025; no lease in any deck.
US pivot
Leaving Latin America, then US GAAP, then the Delaware redomicile and the Keel name in Q1 '26.
AI demand
Third-party market numbers (McKinsey, IEA, CBRE, BCG) open the Q1 and Q3 '25 decks.
Liquidity
$146M, $135M, $150M, about $230M, over $1B with an undrawn loan, then $520M, $533M and $819M after the second notes.
Peer value
FY2025 and Q1 '26 set the company's value per 2027 megawatt beside miners with and without a lease; gone in Q2 '26.
New
FY2025: a site table with earliest ready-for-service dates. Q1 '26: a 2026 lease target on each site page.
Quiet
Hashrate after Q2 '25, mining free cash flow after Q3 '25; the energised-MW summary, the per-site lease target and the peer chart after Q1 '26.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 3

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers12%16%10%39%17%16%22%27%
Growth & sales6%5%14%17%6%11%11%·
Pricing & margins6%·10%22%6%·6%·
Guidance & outlook12%5%10%11%6%11%··
Capacity & supply38%21%29%39%39%32%33%53%
Capital & financing6%16%33%28%44%11%17%7%
Competition·5%5%6%····
Products & technology·5%··28%11%·7%
Macro & regulation6%5%·····7%
Other38%47%43%33%17%42%50%27%
Questions1619211818191815
How much the CEO talked75%84%84%86%75%89%93%90%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 2 · live

    The dates keep moving, and a class action is pending

    Ten of sixteen dated deck claims missed; Panther Creek's first phase went from 2026 to an earliest date of 2027 and its Q4 '25 groundbreaking has not happened. A securities class action in New York names the company, the CEO, a former CFO and a former CEO.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    $1.05bn of convertible notes against equity that halved

    Stockholders' equity fell from $611.1m to $328.7m between Jan '25 and Jun '26; the notes convert into about 147m shares at $6.86 and $7.41. The 2024 ATM sold 165.1m shares before that.

  3. Tier 3 · stable

    Pay is moderate, but holders have not voted on it yet

    CEO $5.73m for 2025, 73 times the median employee; 75% of his long-term award pays on three-year relative TSR. No say-on-pay vote has been held and no annual meeting as a Delaware company.

  4. Tier 3 · resolved

    Riot's 2024 campaign ended with Riot selling out

    A rights plan in July 2024 and a settlement that September; Riot gave up its rights in April 2025 and fell from 16.3% to 4.6% by August.

  5. Tier 3 · resolved

    A 2024 control weakness fixed; the auditor moved inside PwC

    The weakness over complex transactions was remediated and FY2025 controls were audited as effective; PwC Canada gave way to PwC US in June 2026 because of the redomicile, with no disagreements.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Philip (audit chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.8.7M——
Gagnon (CEO)A board seat.7.3M——
2025 incentive planStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much.27.2M——
Share consolidation authorityMerging shares. Several shares become one; every holder keeps the same percentage of the company.41.6M——
Redomicile to DelawareMoving the company's legal home. Changing where the company is incorporated changes the law and the courts that govern shareholders' rights.—1.2M0.7%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Apr-Sep 2026SoldNote
All insiders$0no open-market sale since Form 4 reporting began in April
Gagnon, CEO (bought)+$0.33M97,776 shares at $3.33 in August
Wilson, COO (bought)+$0.20M57,241 shares at $3.78 and $3.25 in August