LRCXLam Research Corporation

Industry Semis equipment Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$230 → $232

What the podcasts say

4 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 speakers · 1 show

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

Bullish
Farley: bullish Lam Research into earningsJack Farley · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 23 Oct 2026
Bullish
Likes Lam Research as part of a bullish semicap callStacy Rasgon · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 8 Oct 2026
Bullish
Lam's out-year estimates of 18% growth are ridiculously low for the biggest semi-cap cycle everJack Farley · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 30 Sep 2026
Bullish
Lam Research estimates are criminally too lowJack Farley · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 16 Sep 2026

All 4 statements on the Podcast Heatmap

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$230 → $232

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Lam guides one quarter at a time, so the base is the run-rate it guides — the December 2026 quarter, $8.60bn plus or minus $400M annualised, at the guided 52.5% gross margin — held at today's 15× multiple of that gross profit. The three years after it grow at what is left of the one multi-year target Lam has set, more than doubling revenue and profit over the five years from Investor Day 2025. The decks give that vision no base year, so the range is both of the bases Lam's own documents use: doubling calendar 2024 is $32.4bn, which the guided quarter already passes, and doubling fiscal 2025 is $36.9bn by about fiscal 2030, about 2% a year from here. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares at their past pace-0.2% a year: 1,250.5M to 1,249.1M in the half to Sep '26 — the count is falling again, slightly	$230	$2321246M sh	$2351243M sh	$2381241M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The base. The December 2026 quarter guide, $8.60bn plus or minus $400M at a 52.5% non-GAAP gross margin, annualised. Lam publishes no annual guidance, so this run-rate is the only forward revenue figure management states. The September quarter, just reported, was $8.22bn, $119M above the middle of its guide; fiscal 2026 was $23.23bn.
Today's multiple. 15× that run-rate's gross profit, held. A forward multiple, as on the Nebius, Zscaler and Applied pages: holding a multiple on the trailing year instead would count the ramp already in the price a second time.
The unguided years. More than doubling revenue and profit over five years, the February 2025 Investor Day vision restated in the Q2 '26 deck. From the guided run-rate that leaves between nothing and about 2% a year, depending which base year is meant — and the decks never say. The wafer-fab-equipment frame, raised for CY26 from $135bn to the mid-$150bn range and put above $200bn for CY27 in the October 2026 deck, is not used: it is a market forecast, not a commitment. Lam's one CY27 number for itself, service revenue up more than 15%, covers under a third of revenue.
Shares. 1249.1M economic shares at 27 Sep 2026, one class, no warrants and no convertible notes. The count fell 0.1% over the half to September: buybacks fell from $1.44bn to $0.25bn a quarter through fiscal 2026 as the average price paid went from $105.67 to $325.14, then rose to $1.01bn in the September quarter, against stock issued to staff. Net debt is negative: -$3.7B.
What is left out. The working capital. Fiscal 2026 turned $7.27bn of net income into $5.86bn of operating cash — receivables rose 58% on revenue up 26% while customer prepayments fell — and none of that is charged against the value above. The September 2026 quarter ran the other way: $3.50bn of operating cash on $2.75bn of net income.

Promises vs. what happened

17 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Mar '25 quarter revenue $4.65B ± $300M	Q2 '25	$4.72B, above the midpoint on all four lines	Held
Sep '26 quarter revenue $8.10B ± $400M	Q4 '26	$8.22B; EPS $2.20, above the midpoint, short of the top	Held
CY25 spending about $100B, Lam faster	Q2 '25	closed at ~$110B; Lam grew 27%	Held
Served market to the mid-30s% of spending in 2025	Q4 '25	held; no dollar figure given	Held
GAA plus packaging over $3B in CY25	Q2 '25	never reported again	Dropped
Several hundred million of moly NAND shipments in CY25	Q2 '25	adoption reported; the dollars never were	Dropped
Dec '26 quarter revenue $8.60B ± $400M	Q1 '27	open; reports in late Jan '27	Open
CY26 spending about $135B	Q2 '26	raised three times, to the mid-$150Bs	Open
CY27 spending above $200B	Q1 '27	open; first given Oct '26	Open
Domestic China spending falls in CY26	Q1 '26	China 43% of revenue to 26%, then 35% in Sep '26; open	Open
Revenue and profit more than double in five years	Q2 '26	open; no base year, and the Dec '26 guide annualised already doubles CY24	Open
Served market to the high-30s% long term	Q4 '25	open; no date, no number	Open
Advanced packaging +40% in CY26	Q2 '26	raised to +50%, then +70%; no rate in Oct '26, no base ever	Open
H2 CY26 revenue above H1	Q3 '26	open; needs $4.34B in the Dec quarter, guided $8.60B	Open
Service revenue +30% in CY26, +15% in CY27	Q1 '27	open; needs $2.26B in the Dec quarter	Open
About $2.5B of cumulative Aether revenue by the decade's end	Q1 '27	open; no Aether revenue reported yet	Open
H2 '25 spending flat on H1	Q4 '25	missed, to the upside	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26Q1
'27

GuidancePage one since Q2 '25

Market sizePage one since Q4 '26

ChinaFirst seen Q1 '26

AI demandNew Q1 '26 · Page one since Q1 '27

ShareNew Q3 '25 · Page one since Q4 '26

NANDOff page one Q1 '27

PackagingFirst seen Q2 '25

ServicesOff page one Q4 '26

Investor DayFirst seen Q3 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.