The Ledger

AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Industry AI semis Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$517 → $568

What the podcasts say

3 bullish · 1 bearish · 4 speakers · 3 shows

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

  1. Bullish
    Visser: move into AMD as AI spreads to edge devicesJordi Visser · The Julia La Roche Show · 22 Oct 2026
  2. Bullish
    One of only two semis RenMac endorses, on a new relative strength highJeff deGraaf · On The Tape with Danny Moses · 14 Oct 2026
  3. Bullish
    Has liked AMD among his AI namesStacy Rasgon · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 8 Oct 2026
  4. Bearish

All 4 statements on the Podcast Heatmap

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$517 → $568

Show the math

today's multiple of 28× on the guided quarter's non-GAAP gross profit at an annual rate, held flat, with revenue compounding at the greater-than-35% long-term target management says it will beat. Company value less net cash, divided by 1632.5M shares plus the 320M of warrant shares the two anchor customers hold at a cent each. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$250$500$750$1,000$1,250Today (Oct 2026): $517, the market price$517TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $568 a share if management delivers$56812 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $742 a share if management delivers$74224 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $997 a share if management delivers$99736 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace, plus the 320M warrant sharesthe count has been flat, +0.25% a year in the half to Jul '26, plus the OpenAI and Meta warrants$517$5681958M sh$7421962M sh$9971966M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value today — $517 times 1632.5M shares, plus debt, less cash and short-term investments — over the Q3 2026 guided quarter's non-GAAP gross profit at an annual rate, which is 28×. Held, so none of the rise below is a re-rating. It is the highest multiple in this cluster by a distance.
  2. The growth. Revenue compounds at the greater-than-35% a year management set as its long-term target in November 2025 and said in August 2026 it would beat substantially, without giving a figure for the excess. The two 2027 numbers it did give are segment-level — data centre revenue more than doubling, server revenue up more than 70% — so neither is used as a company rate.
  3. The margin. Held at the guided 56% non-GAAP gross margin for all three years. The chief financial officer describes "a few puts and takes" into 2027 and expects improvement without quantifying it, so there is no number to grow it by.
  4. The shares. No money is raised. The count grows only at the pace measured over the half to 29 Jul 2026, plus the 320M of warrants held by OpenAI and Meta at an exercise price of $0.01, none of which had vested at 27 June 2026. They are counted because this model assumes the gigawatt deployments that vest them happen. Left out: the stock still to be issued for the $8.2bn World Labs acquisition, whose share number the 8-K says is not yet known.

Promises vs. what happened

15 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Q4 '24 revenue $7.5B plus or minus $300MQ3 '24$7,658M, inside the rangeHeld
Q2 '25 gross margin ~43% with the China chargeQ1 '2543%, and ~54% without itHeld
Q4 '25 gross margin ~54.5%Q3 '2557%, helped by a reserve releaseHeld
ZT Systems closes in H1 '25Q3 '24closed 31 Mar '25Held
ZT manufacturing sold to Sanmina by end '25Q2 '25divested in Q4 '25Held
MI350 in production by mid-'25Q1 '25launched; no revenue figure givenHeld
Radeon RX 9070 launches in Q1 '25Q4 '24launched on timeHeld
MI325X in production Q4 '24, systems Q1 '25Q3 '24never mentioned againDropped
150+ Ryzen AI platforms in '25Q4 '24never counted againDropped
Q1 '26 revenue ~$9.8B, $100M of it ChinaQ4 '25$10,253M; the China part never reportedDropped
OpenAI 6 GW, first 1 GW of MI450 in H2 '26Q3 '25open; no deck mentions OpenAI sinceOpen
Oracle's 50,000-GPU Helios cluster in Q3 '26Q3 '25open; absent from the last two decksOpen
Q3 '26 revenue ~$13B at ~56% marginQ2 '26open; implies 60% growth y/yOpen
Q4 '24 opex ~$2.05BQ3 '24$2,125M, 3.7% overMissed
Q3 '25 opex ~$2.55BQ2 '25$2,754M, 8.0% overMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

Data centreOff page one Q4 '25

Rack scaleFirst seen Q3 '24

Gigawatt dealsFirst seen Q2 '25

ChinaFirst seen Q2 '25

RyzenOff page one Q3 '25

Free cash flowOff page one Q2 '26

StrategyFirst seen Q4 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Data center growth (Instinct and EPYC)

Q3 '24 · headline page

“RECORD DATA CENTER SEGMENT REVENUE DRIVEN BY”

Deck AMD Q3 2024 Earnings Slides · p. 21 ·

Data center growth (Instinct and EPYC)

Q4 '24 · headline page

“RECORD QUARTERLY DATA CENTER SEGMENT”

Deck AMD Q4 2024 Earnings Slides · p. 28 ·

Data center growth (Instinct and EPYC)

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Higher AMD Instinct, EPYC and Ryzen Processor Sales 1. See Appendices for GAAP to Non-GAAP reconciliation 19”

Deck AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 19 ·

Data center growth (Instinct and EPYC)

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Revenue growth driven by broad based demand across our Data Center”

Deck AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

Data center growth (Instinct and EPYC)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Driven by strong demand for AMD”

Deck AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 21 ·

Data center growth (Instinct and EPYC)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Driven by more than doubling of Data”

Deck AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

Rack-scale systems (ZT Systems, Helios)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“AMD to Acquire ZT Systems*”

Deck AMD Q3 2024 Earnings Slides · p. 7 ·

Rack-scale systems (ZT Systems, Helios)

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“TO DELIVER RACK-SCALE AI SOLUTIONS”

Deck AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

Rack-scale systems (ZT Systems, Helios)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Entered into a definitive agreement to sell ZT”

Deck AMD Q2 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

Rack-scale systems (ZT Systems, Helios)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“AMD unveiled its “Helios” rack-scale design that supports Meta’s new Open Rack Wide spec.”

Deck AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Rack-scale systems (ZT Systems, Helios)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“At CES, AMD previewed the AMD Helios rack-scale platform, the blueprint for yotta-scale AI and unveiled the AMD Instinct MI440X GPU for enterprise AI.”

Deck AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 21 ·

Rack-scale systems (ZT Systems, Helios)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Launched broad data center portfolio including the AMD”

Deck AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Gigawatt-scale customer agreements

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“AI infrastructure by deploying 500 MW of AI compute capacity over the next five years”

Deck AMD Q2 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 15 ·

Gigawatt-scale customer agreements

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“AMD announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to deploy 6-GW of AMD GPUs, with initial 1-GW rollout of AMD Instinct”

Deck AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Gigawatt-scale customer agreements

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“AMD, Cisco and HUMAIN announced a joint venture with plans to deploy 1 GW of AI infrastructure by 2030.”

Deck AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 21 ·

Gigawatt-scale customer agreements

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Meta plans to deploy up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct”

Deck AMD Q1 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Gigawatt-scale customer agreements

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Anthropic and AMD announced a strategic agreement to deploy up to 2 GW of AMD Instinct MI450 Series GPUs in AMD Helios racks.”

Deck AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Export controls and China (MI308)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Note: Our current outlook does not include any revenue from AMD Instinct MI308 shipments to China as our license applications are currently under review by the U.S. Government 1.”

Deck AMD Q2 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 18 ·

Export controls and China (MI308)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Note: Our current outlook does not include any revenue from AMD Instinct MI308 shipments to China”

Deck AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 17 ·

Export controls and China (MI308)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“MI308 GPU product revenue to China of ~$390 million”

Deck AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

Export controls and China (MI308)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“(2) Adjusted Q2’25 results excluded $800 million in inventory and related charges due to the U.S. Government's export control on AMD Instinct”

Deck AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 7 ·

Ryzen share gains

Q4 '24 · headline page

“AND CLIENT SEGMENT REVENUE 1. See Appendices for GAAP to Non-GAAP reconciliation28 Q4 2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS FEBRUARY 4, 2025”

Deck AMD Q4 2024 Earnings Slides · p. 28 ·

Ryzen share gains

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Revenue growth driven by record sales of Ryzen”

Deck AMD Q2 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 7 ·

Ryzen share gains

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Primarily driven by record sales of Ryzen”

Deck AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 15 ·

Ryzen share gains

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“processors and continued share gains across consumer and commercial markets”

Deck AMD Q1 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 15 ·

Ryzen share gains

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“processors and continued share gains”

Deck AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 15 ·

Free cash flow

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Cash from operations $939 million; free cash flow $727 million2”

Deck AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Free cash flow

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Cash from operating activities of continuing operations $1.5 billion; record free cash flow $1.2 billion1”

Deck AMD Q2 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 14 ·

Free cash flow

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Cash from operating activities of continuing operations of $1.8 billion; record free cash flow of $1.5 billion1”

Deck AMD Q3 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 13 ·

Free cash flow

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Record cash from operating activities of continuing operations of $2.3 billion; record free cash flow of $2.1 billion1”

Deck AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 20 ·

Free cash flow

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Accelerating revenue growth, earnings expansion and record quarterly free cash flow”

Deck AMD Q1 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 18 ·

Strategy statement

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“HIGH PERFORMANCE & ADAPTIVE COMPUTING LEADERSHIP”

Deck AMD Q4 2024 Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Strategy statement

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“High Performance & Adaptive Computing Leadership”

Deck AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Strategy statement

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Powering AI and High-Performance Compute Everywhere”

Deck AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Strategy statement

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Powering AI and High-Performance Compute Everywhere”

Deck AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Data centre
On the summary slide of most decks, and never once split: Instinct GPU revenue is described in words and has no figure in any of the eight.
Rack scale
A full ZT Systems slide in Q1 and Q2 '25, dropped from Q3 '25; since then rack scale is a Helios bullet on the data centre slide.
Gigawatt deals
From Q2 '25 each deck announces a new multi-year capacity agreement. Not one is followed up in a later deck with a shipment or a revenue number.
China
Footnotes only, never the summary slide. The $800M MI308 charge, then ~$390M of revenue, then ~$100M in a guide that was never reported back.
Ryzen
Share gains in five of eight decks, with the platform count given once (150+) and never counted again.
Free cash flow
Added in Q1 '25 with a reconciliation, led the Q1 '26 summary slide, and in Q2 '26 dropped off the balance-sheet slide into the appendix.
Strategy
Rewritten in Q4 '25 around AI: "Powering AI Everywhere", rack-scale solutions and a production-grade ROCm stack replaced the old four pillars.
New
Q2 '26: Helios in production, MI450 launched, and the first mention of Anthropic — two gigawatts, first one from H1 '27.
Quiet
Buybacks appear in two decks and never again; the four-segment split became three in Q1 '25; free cash flow went to the appendix.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers25%19%15%33%33%24%22%14%
Growth & sales55%19%40%33%19%38%39%38%
Pricing & margins15%12%10%11%14%24%39%33%
Guidance & outlook50%44%45%56%29%38%50%52%
Capacity & supply40%44%30%39%48%29%33%48%
Capital & financing···17%10%5%6%·
Competition10%19%15%6%14%19%33%5%
Products & technology50%62%35%33%48%29%28%33%
Macro & regulation5%·25%17%·10%11%·
Other10%6%5%6%14%19%·10%
Questions2016201821211821
How much the CEO talked83%91%77%80%94%77%82%84%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    Two customers hold warrants over 320 million shares at one cent

    AMD issued warrants over 160,000,000 shares to OpenAI in October 2025 and 160,000,000 to Meta in February 2026, each at an exercise price of $0.01, vesting in tranches on GPU purchase milestones plus specified stock-price targets. That is about 20% of the shares outstanding and about 19% of the diluted count. None had vested at 2026-06-27. They are exercisable to October 2030 and February 2031 and sit as liabilities until the conditions for equity classification are met. The research record's reading, with the 107m plan shares, puts the total pending claim at up to about 26%.

  2. Tier 2 · worsening

    The authorised share count was nearly doubled, and the plan pool raised again a year later

    At the 2025 meeting shareholders approved a charter amendment raising authorised common stock from 2.25 billion to 4.0 billion shares, with 67.5m against, about 5.7%. At the 2026 meeting they approved 65,000,000 more shares under the 2023 equity plan, taking its authorisation to 153,000,000, with 28.5m against, about 2.9%. On 2026-09-26 the company agreed to buy World Labs Technologies for about $8.2bn entirely in stock, and the 8-K says the number of shares is "not known" and will be set on a ten-day average price at closing.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    The chief executive chairs the board, and owns 0.26% of it

    Lisa Su has been chief executive since October 2014 and chair of the board since February 2022, and is the only director who is not independent. She holds 4,305,973 shares, under 1%. Against her sits an independent lead director, Nora Denzel, who chairs the nominating committee and leads the executive sessions. Su drew the largest vote against of any director in 2025 (7.4%) and the second largest in 2026 (6.7%); say on pay carried with 14.4% against in 2025 and 7.4% in 2026 on fiscal 2025 pay of $41.7m.

  4. Tier 2 · worsening

    Both of the board's named audit financial experts left in 2026

    The proxy names Joseph Householder and Jon Olson as the audit committee's two financial experts. Olson was not renominated and retired at the May 2026 meeting; Householder gave notice on 2026-08-17 and retired two days later after twelve years, with the 8-K stating no disagreement and no reason. The chair of the audit and finance committee is now KC McClure, appointed to the board in January 2026, and the lead independent director joined the committee at the same time. Separately the chief accounting officer seat, held on an interim basis by the chief financial officer, was filled from outside in December 2025.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    A hundred and sixty-two insider sales, no purchases, and no anchor on the register

    Over the year to 2026q2 the SEC insider data sets record 162 sales by 7 insiders totalling $314,536,611 and zero purchases by anyone, 93.1% of it under pre-set 10b5-1 plans; net selling is about 0.03% of market value. No shareholder holds more than 8.8%, and the two largest reported stakes — Vanguard at 8.8% and BlackRock at 7.7% — come from 13G amendments filed in February 2024, so the register as presented in the 2026 proxy is two years out of date.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Su (chair and CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.65.7M66.8M6.7%
Talwalkar (technology chair)A board seat.105.2M83.4M8.3%
Denzel (lead independent)A board seat.23.4M53.8M5.4%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.127.5M73.4M7.4%
Ratify Ernst & YoungThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.81.3M85.3M6.7%
Easier to call a special meeting — rejectedShareholders' right to act between annual meetings. A lower threshold to call a special meeting, or the right to act by written consent, lets a group of shareholders force a vote without waiting a year. More shareholder power; boards usually oppose it.780.1M624.4M62.5%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26SoldNote
All insiders$314.5M162 sales by 7 people, and not one purchase
Of that, pre-planned93.1%under pre-set 10b5-1 plans
Ahead of them in the queue320M shareswarrants at $0.01 to OpenAI and Meta; none vested at 27 Jun '26