AAPLApple Inc.
Industry Megacap tech Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$348 → $365
What the podcasts say
2 bullish · 3 bearish · 5 speakers · 3 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Bullish
- Bearish
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 releasesEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| More AI languages by Apr '25 | Q1 '25 | iOS 18.4, Apr '25 | Held |
| Best lineup, holiday '25 | Q4 '25 | revenue +16%, a record | Held |
| Revenue +LSD-MSD, Dec '24 qtr | Q4 '24 call | +4% | Held |
| Revenue +10-12%, Dec '25 qtr | Q4 '25 call | +16% | Held |
| iPhone double digits, Dec '25 | Q4 '25 call | +23% | Held |
| Margin 45.5-46.5%, Jun '25 | Q2 '25 call | 46.5%, the top | Held |
| Tariff costs ~$1.1B, Sep '25 | Q3 '25 call | ~$1.1B, in line | Held |
| AI supercharges holiday '24 | Q4 '24 | revenue +4%, iPhone −1% | Late |
| Net cash neutral goal | Q2 '25 call | dropped, Apr '26 | Dropped |
| Personalised Siri in 2026 | Q3 '25 call | public beta, Jul '26 | Open |
| $500B US investment, 4 years | Q2 '25 call | raised to $600B | Open |
| Revenue +9-11%, Sep '26 qtr | Q3 '26 call | reports Oct '26 | Open |
| Margin 47-48%, Sep '26 qtr | Q3 '26 call | reports Oct '26 | Open |
| Another $100B buyback, Apr '26 | Q2 '26 | buying 12% slower so far | Open |
| Capex keeps growing | Q3 '25 call | -28% in 9M FY26 | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, release by releaseThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26
RecordsPage one since Q4 '24
ServicesPage one since Q4 '24
iPhonePage one since Q3 '26
Installed baseFirst seen Q4 '24
AI / SiriFirst seen Q4 '24
Cash returnedFirst seen Q4 '24
TariffsFirst seen Q3 '26
on the headline page further in the release not in the release▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Quarterly records on the headline
“iPhone drives record September quarter revenue”
Quarterly records on the headline
“All-time records for total company revenue and EPS”
Quarterly records on the headline
“EPS sets March quarter record”
Quarterly records on the headline
“June quarter records for total company revenue, iPhone revenue and EPS”
Quarterly records on the headline
“September quarter records for total company revenue, iPhone revenue and EPS”
Quarterly records on the headline
“All-time records for total company revenue and EPS”
Quarterly records on the headline
“March quarter records for total company revenue, iPhone revenue, and EPS”
Quarterly records on the headline
“June quarter records for total company revenue and EPS”
Services at an all-time high
“Services revenue reaches new all-time high”
Services at an all-time high
“Services revenue reaches new all-time high”
Services at an all-time high
“Services revenue reaches new all-time high”
Services at an all-time high
“Services revenue reaches new all-time high”
Services at an all-time high
“Services revenue reaches new all-time high”
Services at an all-time high
“iPhone and Services revenue reach new all-time highs”
Services at an all-time high
“Services revenue reaches new all-time high”
Services at an all-time high
“iPhone, Mac and Services revenue set new June quarter records”
iPhone demand
“iPhone drives record September quarter revenue”
iPhone demand
“June quarter records for total company revenue, iPhone revenue and EPS”
iPhone demand
“September quarter records for total company revenue, iPhone revenue and EPS”
iPhone demand
““iPhone had its best-ever quarter driven by unprecedented demand, with all-time records across every geographic segment, and Services also achieved an all-time revenue record, up 14 percent from a year ago.”
iPhone demand
““iPhone achieved a March quarter revenue record, fueled by such extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup.”
iPhone demand
“iPhone, Mac and Services revenue set new June quarter records”
Installed base of active devices
““We are very pleased that our active installed base of devices reached a new all-time high across all products and all geographic segments, thanks to our high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty.””
Installed base of active devices
““We are also pleased that our installed base of active devices has reached a new all-time high across all products and geographic segments.””
Installed base of active devices
““And thanks to our high levels of customer loyalty and satisfaction, our installed base of active devices once again reached a new all-time high across all product categories and geographic segments.””
Installed base of active devices
““Our installed base of active devices also reached a new all-time high across all product categories and geographic segments, thanks to our very high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty.””
Installed base of active devices
““And thanks to our very high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty, our installed base of active devices also reached a new all-time high across all product categories and geographic segments.””
Installed base of active devices
“We are also excited to announce that our installed base now has more than 2.5 billion active devices, which is a testament to incredible customer satisfaction for the very best products and services in the world.””
Installed base of active devices
““Continued strong customer demand for our products and services once again helped us achieve a new all-time high for our installed base of active devices across all major product categories and geographic segments.””
Installed base of active devices
““Our installed base of active devices also reached a new all-time high across all major product categories and geographic segments.””
Apple Intelligence and Siri AI
“And this week, we released our first set of features for Apple Intelligence, which sets a new standard for privacy in AI and supercharges our lineup heading into the holiday season.””
Apple Intelligence and Siri AI
“And we’re excited that Apple Intelligence will be available in even more languages this April.””
Apple Intelligence and Siri AI
““At WWDC25, we were excited to introduce a beautiful new software design that extends across all of our platforms, and we announced even more great Apple Intelligence features.””
Apple Intelligence and Siri AI
““At WWDC26, we were thrilled to introduce the all-new Siri AI, alongside all of Apple’s latest software innovations and important new child safety features.””
Cash returned to shareholders
““Our record business performance during the September quarter drove nearly $27 billion in operating cash flow, allowing us to return over $29 billion to our shareholders,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO.”
Cash returned to shareholders
““Our record revenue and strong operating margins drove EPS to a new all-time record with double-digit growth and allowed us to return over $30 billion to shareholders,” said Kevan Parekh, Apple’s CFO.”
Cash returned to shareholders
““Our March quarter business performance drove EPS growth of 8 percent and $24 billion in operating cash flow, allowing us to return $29 billion to shareholders,” said Kevan Parekh, Apple’s CFO.”
Cash returned to shareholders
““These exceptionally strong results generated nearly $54 billion in operating cash flow, allowing us to return almost $32 billion to shareholders.””
Tariffs
“Company gross margin was 50.1 percent, including a favorable impact of approximately 2 percentage points from tariff refunds.”
What they keep talking about · 8
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Records
- Every title claims a record; when growth is small the record narrows to the quarter ("EPS sets March quarter record", Q2 FY25).
- Services
- On the headline of all eight. In Q3 FY26 it shares the line with iPhone and Mac and is a June-quarter, not all-time, record.
- iPhone
- Off the headline in Q1-Q2 FY25, when iPhone revenue fell; back from Q3 FY25 through the iPhone 17 cycle.
- Installed base
- In the CFO's or CEO's quote every quarter, always an all-time high; a number only once, 2.5 billion in Q1 FY26.
- AI / Siri
- In three of the first four releases, then silent while the personalised Siri slipped; back as "Siri AI" in Q3 FY26.
- Cash returned
- The CFO's line in four of the first six releases; gone from Q2 FY26, the quarter net cash neutral was dropped.
- New
- Q3 FY26: gross margin in the opening paragraph for the first time, with the tariff refund that lifted it.
- Quiet
- No release carries any outlook. Every guide is said on the call, one quarter ahead.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q4 24 – Q3 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 19% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 17% |
| Growth & sales | 32% | 24% | 13% | 26% | 27% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| Pricing & margins | 6% | 18% | 17% | 5% | 9% | 23% | 25% | 17% |
| Guidance & outlook | 16% | 6% | 27% | 16% | 23% | 8% | 25% | 17% |
| Capacity & supply | 6% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 23% | 12% | 38% | 21% |
| Capital & financing | 3% | · | 3% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Competition | 6% | 3% | 3% | · | 5% | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Products & technology | 16% | 39% | 20% | 26% | 32% | 27% | 44% | 8% |
| Macro & regulation | 10% | 18% | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 19% | 21% |
| Other | 42% | 42% | 37% | 26% | 18% | 42% | 19% | 42% |
| Questions | 31 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 16 | 24 |
| How much the CEO talked | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · live
Every top job changed in twenty months, and the old CEO now chairs the new one
New CFO (Jan '25), COO (Jul '25), accounting officer (Jan '26), general counsel (Mar '26) and chief executive (Sep '26). Tim Cook is Executive Chair over John Ternus; the 8-K/A gives Ternus $55M and Cook $45M of FY27 awards.
Tier 2 · live
The Services toll is decided in courts, not by management
The DOJ suit, the EU Digital Markets Act, the Epic link-out ruling under appeal, and the US search judgment against Google that governs the default-search payment. None is quantified in any filing read.
Tier 2 · stable
CEO pay $74.3M, 533 times the median; insiders own 0.06%
Cook's pay went $63.2M, $74.6M, $74.3M across FY23-25. The bonus runs on GAAP sales and operating income and the stock on relative TSR, so the buyback does not pay it. Say on pay drew 7.6% then 8.6% against.
Tier 3 · stable
The lead independent director and the audit chair stay on past the age-75 guideline
The board waived its guideline for Art Levinson (75, since 2000) and Ron Sugar (77, Audit chair). Levinson drew the largest vote against in both years, rising from 7.0% to 9.0%.
Tier 3 · worsening
The net-cash-neutral target was dropped and the buyback slowed
Dropped as a formal target on 30 Apr '26 with net cash at $62B; buybacks $62.1B in nine months of FY26 against $70.6B.
Accounting rule changes 3 in 8 quarters
- Q4 '24EPS also given excluding the one-time European State Aid tax charge
- Q4 '25EPS growth stated on an adjusted basis against the charge-hit year-ago quarter
- Q3 '26Gross margin and EPS given with the tariff-refund benefit called out
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levinson (Lead Independent)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 633.6M | 822.3M | 9.0% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 691.3M | 781.6M | 8.6% |
| Wagner (Nominating chair)A board seat. | 368.7M | 522.6M | 5.7% |
| Jung (Compensation chair)A board seat. | 565.5M | 512.3M | 5.6% |
| Sugar (Audit chair)A board seat. | 478.7M | 401.4M | 4.4% |
| CookA board seat. | 153.1M | 101.4M | 1.1% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insiders | $199.0M | 31 sales by 7 people; about a third under pre-set 10b5-1 plans |
| Against that | $0 bought | no open-market purchase in the year |