The Ledger

AVGOBroadcom Inc.

Industry AI semis Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$322 → $417

What the podcasts say

2 bullish · 1 bearish · 3 speakers · 2 shows

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

  1. Bullish
  2. Bullish
    Likes Broadcom: guiding to double revenue, ~11-12x 2028 earningsStacy Rasgon · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 8 Oct 2026
  3. Bearish

All 3 statements on the Podcast Heatmap

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$322 → $417

Show the math

today's multiple of 20× on the guided quarter's non-GAAP earnings at an annual rate, held flat, with earnings compounding at the rate that reaches management's own fiscal 2028 target of more than $30 a share. Company value less net debt, divided by a share count that keeps growing at its measured pace. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$200$400$600$800$1,000Today (Oct 2026): $322, the market price$322TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $417 a share if management delivers$41712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $570 a share if management delivers$57024 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $780 a share if management delivers$78036 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count is rising, about +1.65% a year as in the half to Aug '26 — the stock grants are bigger than the buyback$322$4174865M sh$5704945M sh$7805027M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value today — $322 times 4773.6M shares, plus $59.4bn of debt, less $24.0bn of cash — over the guided fourth quarter's non-GAAP earnings at an annual rate, which is 20×. The earnings base is built from three guided lines in one passage of the same call: revenue of $34.8bn, an operating margin of about 66% and a non-GAAP tax rate of about 16%.
  2. The growth. Earnings compound at 38.6% a year, the rate that takes that run rate to management's fiscal 2028 target of more than $30 a share on the 4.94 billion share count it guides in the same call. The segment numbers behind it, also management's own: AI semiconductor revenue about $115bn in fiscal 2027 and about $230bn in fiscal 2028, with the supply "secured" for both.
  3. The shares. No money is raised, and the count is the one thing working against a holder here: it grew 0.8% in the half to 28 Aug 2026 because share-based pay is larger than the buyback. There are no warrants and no convertible, so there is nothing else waiting in the queue.

Promises vs. what happened

8 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
FY24 AI revenue over $10B, ~35% of semisQ2 '24$12.2B, about 40%Held
FY24 dividend $21.00 for the yearQ1 '24paid as shownHeld
FY25 dividend $2.36 for the yearQ4 '24paid as shownHeld
FY26 dividend $2.60 for the yearQ4 '25paid as shownHeld
A third XPU customer into productionQ2 '24never confirmed in a deckDropped
PCIe generations every 8, 4, 2 then 1 yearQ2 '24never reported againstDropped
Co-packaged optics beyond the 51.2T switchQ2 '24never followed upDropped
Clusters from 30K XPUs toward one millionQ2 '24open; no cluster-size figure sinceOpen

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q1
'24
Q2
'24
Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q2
'25
Q4
'25
Q2
'26
Q3
'26

ScalePage one since Q3 '24

Mission-criticalPage one since Q2 '25

AcquisitionsFirst seen Q1 '24

AIOff page one Q3 '24

VMwareFirst seen Q1 '24

DividendFirst seen Q1 '24

PositioningFirst seen Q1 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q1 '24 · headline page

“26 Category -Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, March 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q3 '24 · headline page

“26 Category -Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q4 '24 · headline page

“26 Category -Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q2 '25 · headline page

“25 Category-Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q4 '25 · headline page

“24 Category-Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q2 '26 · headline page

“24 Category-Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 3 ·

Scale: category-leading divisions

Q3 '26 · headline page

“24 Category-Leading Semiconductor and Infrastructure Software Divisions”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 3 ·

Mission-critical infrastructure

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Providing Market-Leading Semiconductor and Software Technologies for Mission Critical Infrastructure”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Mission-critical infrastructure

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Providing Market-Leading Semiconductor and Software Technologies for Mission Critical Infrastructure”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Mission-critical infrastructure

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Providing Market-Leading Semiconductor and Software Technologies for Mission Critical Infrastructure”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 3 ·

Mission-critical infrastructure

Q3 '26 · headline page

“Providing Market-Leading Semiconductor and Software Technologies for Mission Critical Infrastructure”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 3 ·

Growth through acquisition

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“Heritage of Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, March 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growth through acquisition

Q2 '24 · further in the deck

“Technology Leadership → Organic Growth”

Deck Enabling AI Infrastructure Investor Meeting · p. 6 ·

Growth through acquisition

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Heritage of Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growth through acquisition

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Heritage of Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growth through acquisition

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Growth Through Acquisition and Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growth through acquisition

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Growth Through Acquisition and Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growth through acquisition

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Growth Through Acquisition and Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 4 ·

Growth through acquisition

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“Growth Through Acquisition and Innovation”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 4 ·

AI infrastructure

Q2 '24 · headline page

“Enabling AI infrastructure”

Deck Enabling AI Infrastructure Investor Meeting · p. 10 ·

AI infrastructure

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“AI XPU & AI Networking”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

AI infrastructure

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“AI XPU & AI Networking”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

AI infrastructure

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“AI XPU & AI Networking”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 5 ·

AI infrastructure

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“AI XPU & AI Networking”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 5 ·

VMware and private cloud

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“VMware Hybrid Cloud Portfolio”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, March 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

VMware and private cloud

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“VMware Hybrid Cloud Portfolio”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

VMware and private cloud

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“VMware Hybrid Cloud Portfolio”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

VMware and private cloud

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Application Networking & Security Private AI”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

VMware and private cloud

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Application Networking & Security Private AI”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

VMware and private cloud

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Private AI”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 15 ·

VMware and private cloud

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“Private AI”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 15 ·

Growing dividend

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, March 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growing dividend

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growing dividend

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growing dividend

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growing dividend

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Growing dividend

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend* Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 17 ·

Growing dividend

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“Growing Common Stock Dividend* Since FY11”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 17 ·

Well positioned for the future

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, March 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Well positioned for the future

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Well positioned for the future

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2024 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Well positioned for the future

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Well positioned for the future

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, December 2025 · no page (Tavily text) ·

Well positioned for the future

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, June 2026 · p. 19 ·

Well positioned for the future

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“Well Positioned for the Future”

Deck Broadcom Inc. Company Overview, September 2026 · p. 19 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Scale
In seven of the eight: the same claim that each division leads its category, restated as the divisions changed.
Mission-critical
The argument for the pricing power — in four of eight, and the one that carried the VMware repricing.
Acquisitions
In all eight. The only theme that never leaves, and the only one with a twenty-year record behind it.
AI
Absent from the earliest overviews, then the whole story: $12.2bn of AI revenue in FY24, $20.2bn in FY25, $21.7bn guided for one quarter of FY26.
VMware
In seven of eight, and the reason the debt exists. Infrastructure software revenue reached $27.0bn in FY25.
Dividend
In seven of eight, and the only forecast these documents ever make that can be checked — paid as shown three years running.
Positioning
In seven of eight. The closing slide, unchanged in substance while everything in front of it moved.
New
The September 2026 overview arrives with AI revenue guidance two years out — $115bn in FY27 and $230bn in FY28, the first multi-year figures Broadcom has published.
Quiet
Three product promises from the 2024 AI investor meeting — the third XPU customer, the PCIe cadence and co-packaged optics beyond 51.2T — were never reported against.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q4 24 – Q3 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26
Demand & customers28%33%26%46%82%50%44%33%
Growth & sales32%·35%12%55%21%28%17%
Pricing & margins12%4%4%4%9%29%17%33%
Guidance & outlook20%8%35%21%55%50%28%67%
Capacity & supply8%·4%12%36%36%39%83%
Capital & financing12%12%9%8%18%7%11%33%
Competition8%·9%4%18%21%11%·
Products & technology24%17%35%25%9%50%39%·
Macro & regulation4%12%4%4%····
Other48%50%17%42%··17%·
Questions252423241114186
How much the CEO talked96%93%96%95%0%86%94%65%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    The chief executive is paid on the number he guides, and his own guidance clears the maximum

    The September 2025 award covers 610,521 target shares and pays 0% at or below $60bn of AI revenue, 100% at $90bn, 200% at $105bn and 300% at $120bn or more, measured on the highest four consecutive quarters of AI revenue between the start of fiscal 2028 and the end of fiscal 2030. On the 2026-09-02 call the same executive guided AI semiconductor revenue to about $115bn in fiscal 2027 — before the performance period opens — and about $230bn in fiscal 2028, saying the supply is secured for both. At 300% that is 1,831,563 shares, about $642m at today's price. Nothing vests before the last day of fiscal 2030 and he has agreed to hold the after-tax shares from the earlier 2023 award until at least November 2030.

  2. Tier 1 · worsening

    Say on pay went from 7.5% against to 33.6% in one year

    At the 2026-04-20 meeting the advisory pay vote carried 2,433,503,375 to 1,232,879,962 — 33.6% against, after 7.5% in 2025. Harry You, who chairs the compensation committee, drew 954,686,330 against, 26.0%, up from 9.2%; the other two compensation members also moved, Diane Bryant from 0.7% to 6.4% and Check Kian Low from 1.1% to 7.9%. Nobody else on the board moved more than a point. The proxy records that the committee chair met thirteen stockholders representing 35% of the shares before the 2025 meeting and that the company engaged again after granting the award.

  3. Tier 2 · worsening

    Half of one quarter's revenue came through a single distributor

    One distributor customer went from 32% of fiscal 2025 revenue to 50% of Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue, and the top five end customers from about 40% to about 55%. Receivables days went 31, then 41, then 42-44. The same quarter's call describes residual value guarantees on AI-lab equipment, which management calls low-risk contingent liabilities and which are not quantified in the figures read, and $35bn of secured financing in an off-balance-sheet vehicle discussed only in the question period.

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    The chairman has pledged 16.2 million shares, under an exception to the company's own ban

    The proxy states that the company allows "No pledging of stock by employees or, unless a limited exception is approved, by executive officers or directors". The board approved such an exception for the chairman, capped so that pledged shares stay under 25% of his holding and the loans under 12.5% of its value. On 2024-11-15 he pledged 16,175,000 shares — about 18% of his holding and 0.3% of the company — to secure loans for the OCVIBE development in Orange County. Any change needs a fresh approval by the nominating committee and the board.

  5. Tier 3 · worsening

    The lead independent director retired on an age rule and was not replaced

    Eddy Hartenstein retired at the 2026 annual meeting after ten years, eight as lead independent director, having offered his resignation on reaching 75 under the board's own guidelines. The board was cut from nine seats to eight rather than refilled; the lead independent director role lapsed, which the proxy's own structure permits because the chairman is independent; and nothing read names a successor as chair of the nominating and corporate governance committee. The chief financial officer also changed on 2026-06-12, hired from Alphabet, and the outgoing officer held both the finance and the accounting-officer titles.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
You (compensation chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.337.2M954.7M26.0%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.274.7M1,232.9M33.6%
Bryant (compensation)A board seat.24.5M233.2M6.4%
Low (compensation)A board seat.40.4M288.0M7.9%
Samueli (chairman)A board seat.74.1M69.8M1.9%
Tan (CEO)A board seat.11.9M11.0M0.3%
Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopersThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.61.7M81.4M2.0%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26SoldNote
All insiders$1,179.0M336 sales by 8 people against $1.9M bought by one
Of that, pre-planned64.0%under pre-set 10b5-1 plans
The chairman1.8% intact85,559,569 shares, of which 16,175,000 pledged