AXAxos Financial, Inc.

Industry Banks Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$91.79 → $103

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$92 → $103

Show the math

Price to book held where it is today, and book value compounded at the return on equity Axos reported in fiscal 2026, less the small part of earnings it pays out — then divided by a share count that is now drifting up rather than down. This is the one lender among the companies covered here whose management publishes no outlook of any kind: no loan, margin, expense, capital or earnings guide appears in any of the eight decks. So the rate here is 15.7-17.4%, the lowest and highest return on equity Axos itself printed in the four quarters of fiscal 2026, less a payout of 4-13%. There is no dividend. Net debt is not subtracted: a bank's deposits are inside the book value being compounded. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: the share count is now risingshares +0.2% a year as in the half to Jun '26 — the buyback no longer covers the stock grants	$92	$10357M sh	$11857M sh	$13657M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Today's equity value over common stockholders' equity of $3,166m at 2026-06-30, a price to book held unchanged in every year. It is the one figure here that is not management's own, and it cancels out of the later years by construction. Book value a share is $55.81 and tangible book $50.96 on the same page.
The compounding. Return on equity between the 15.69% of the June 2026 quarter and the 17.44% of the December 2025 one — both reported by Axos, neither guided, because it guides nothing — less a payout of 4.5% (fiscal 2026 buybacks against net income) to 13.4% (fiscal 2025). No dividend has ever been paid. The direction of the rate is down three years running.
The arithmetic. (equity value if delivered) ÷ shares. Today: $92 × 56.7M shares is the market value. The share count then grows from the 30 Jun 2026 count at the pace of the half before it, with no new debt; there are no convertibles and no warrants, so 0M shares are added anywhere. The arithmetic is dated 31 December of each year while the fiscal year ends 30 June, and the bars at 12, 24 and 36 months from the price date are read along the line between those points; the share count is flat enough that this moves almost nothing.

Promises vs. what happened

13 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Clearing assets over $30B and growing	Q1 '25	$47.8B, and revenue +12%	Held
Verdant adds ~$1.0B of loans and leases	Q1 '26	$1,020M in; now a $1,750M line	Held
Low loan-to-values keep losses low	Q1 '25	losses 0.31% and 0.25%; LTV 40% to 49%	Late
A structural cost advantage over banks	Q1 '25	best 6% of peers, but expenses up 1.97% to 2.24% of assets	Late
Robo-advisory, direct and private-label	Q1 '25	direct launched; private-label still "will offer" 21 months on	Late
6th-largest RIA custodian	Q1 '25	7th, then the whole slide was removed	Dropped
64% of loans reprice within three years	Q1 '25	slide dropped after Q3 '25, as the margin fell	Dropped
Succession and M&A lending to RIAs	Q1 '25	same future tense in all eight decks; no line in the loan table	Open
Axos Securities replatforms from 2026	Q4 '25	same slide, no milestone; open	Open
Automation and AI raise productivity	Q4 '25	no target given; bank expenses rose instead	Open
Margin keeps expanding through rate cycles	Q1 '25	4.54%, down 30bp; slide retitled "Resilient"	Missed
~40% of US Chapter 7 trustees served	Q1 '25	quietly became ~30%, unexplained	Missed
~90% of deposits insured or collateralised	Q1 '25	quietly became ~85%	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26

Three divisionsPage one since Q1 '25

Peer rankingFirst seen Q1 '25

HighlightsFirst seen Q1 '25

MarginFirst seen Q1 '25

CRE lendingFirst seen Q1 '25

DepositsFirst seen Q1 '25

ClearingFirst seen Q1 '25

Securities planFirst seen Q4 '25

ProductivityFirst seen Q4 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (November 5, 2024) · p. 3 · 5 Nov 2024

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (January 29, 2025) · p. 3 · 29 Jan 2025

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (May 5, 2025) · p. 3 · 5 May 2025

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (August 12, 2025) · p. 3 · 12 Aug 2025

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Axos Financial’ s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained L ong -term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (November 12, 2025) · p. 3 · 12 Nov 2025

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (February 2, 2026) · p. 3 · 2 Feb 2026

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q3 '26 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (May 4, 2026) · p. 3 · 4 May 2026

Three divisions as the base for long-term growth

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Axos Financial’s Three Divisions Provide the Foundation for Sustained Long-term Growth”

Deck Axos Financial, Inc. Investor Presentation (August 6, 2026) · p. 3 · 6 Aug 2026