UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Industry Managed care Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$418 → $472
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 releasesEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul '25 re-set: at least $16.00 | Q2 '25 | $16.35, raised in Oct | Held |
| 2025 MCR 89.25% ± 0.25 | Q2 '25 | 89.1% | Held |
| $2B of buybacks by Jun '26 | Q1 '26 | $4.0B by mid-Jul, $5.0B by Sep | Held |
| Alegeus closed in H2 '26 | Q1 '26 | closed 2 Jul | Held |
| 2026 'solid but moderate' growth | Q2 '25 call | guide now at least +25% | Open |
| 2026 adj. EPS >$17.75 | Q4 '25 | raised to at least $20.50 | Open |
| Debt to capital 40% in 2026 | Q4 '25 | 41.7% in Sep | Open |
| Members down to 46.9-47.5M | Q4 '25 | 48.3M in Sep | Open |
| 30% fewer prior approvals | Q2 '26 | no baseline, no progress figure | Open |
| 100% rebate pass-through by '28 | Q3 '25 call | no share reported | Open |
| 13-16% EPS growth a year | Q3 '24 call | 2025 fell 41% | Missed |
| 2025 adj. EPS $29.50-30.00 | Q4 '24 | $16.35, guide suspended | Missed |
| Apr '25 cut: $26.00-26.50 | Q1 '25 | lasted 26 days | Missed |
| 650K new value-based patients | Q1 '25 | cut to 300K | Missed |
| Medicaid back to growth in 2025 | Q4 '24 | -55K | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, release by releaseThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26
CyberattackFirst seen Q4 '24
MembershipOff page one Q2 '25
Cost trendOff page one Q3 '25
Medicare cutsOff page one Q2 '25
TurnaroundPage one since Q3 '26
Right-sizingOff page one Q2 '26
GovernanceOff page one Q2 '26
AIOff page one Q2 '26
on the headline page further in the release not in the release▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Change Healthcare cyberattack costs
“Adjusted earnings from operations of $34.4 billion exclude the cyberattack direct response costs and South American impacts.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Quarterly and Annual Financial Performance ·
Change Healthcare cyberattack costs
“This charge reflected the final direct costs associated with cyberattack-related activities, divestitures and business exits, and broader restructuring and other actions including loss contract assessments, real estate rationalization and workforce reductions.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Growth in people served
“Domestic Consumers Served by UnitedHealthcare Grew 2.1 Million”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Growth in people served
“Consumers Served by UnitedHealthcare Increased by 780,000 Year to Date”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Growth in people served
“UnitedHealthcare revenues grew 16% year-over-year to $87.1 billion, driven by growth in Medicare & Retirement and Community & State; UnitedHealthcare served 50.1 million consumers domestically, up 795,000 year-over-year.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medical cost trend above pricing
“Heightened care activity indications within UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare Advantage businesses, which became visible as the quarter closed, far above the planned 2025 increase which was consistent with the elevated levels in 2024.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medical cost trend above pricing
“The new outlook reflects first half 2025 performance and expectations for the remainder of the year, including higher realized and anticipated care trends.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q2 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medical cost trend above pricing
“The third quarter consolidated medical care ratio of 89.9% reflected utilization in line with expectations outlined in the second quarter 2025.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Quarterly Financial Performance ·
Medical cost trend above pricing
“Aligning pricing discipline to account for higher medical trends and the impact of health care policy changes.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medical cost trend above pricing
“The year-over-year decrease was driven by strong medical cost management and favorable reserve development, partially offset by consistently elevated utilization and unit cost trends.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medical cost trend above pricing
“The year-over-year decrease was driven by medical cost management initiatives, benefit design changes and pricing discipline, as well as care delivery enhancements focused on affordability and integrated value-based care.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medicare funding reductions
“In addition, a greater-than-expected impact to current and new complex patients from the ongoing Medicare funding reductions enacted by the previous administration.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Medicare funding reductions
“The year-over-year increase of 470 basis points was primarily driven by the previously described significantly elevated cost trends, as well as the ongoing effects of the Biden-era Medicare funding reductions and changes to the Part D program from the Inflation Reduction Act.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Quarterly Financial Performance ·
Medicare funding reductions
“Operating margin of 2.7% compared to 5.2% in 2024, primarily due to the effects of the Biden-era Medicare funding reductions and Inflation Reduction Act impacts combined with elevated medical cost trends.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Path back to performance under Hemsley
““UnitedHealth Group has embarked on a rigorous path back to being a high-performing company fully serving the health needs of individuals and society broadly,” said Stephen Hemsley, chief executive officer of UnitedHealth Group.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q2 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Path back to performance under Hemsley
““We remain focused on strengthening performance and positioning for durable and accelerating growth in 2026 and beyond, and our results this quarter reflect solid execution toward that goal,” said Stephen Hemsley, chief executive officer of UnitedHealth Group.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Path back to performance under Hemsley
““We confronted challenges directly and finished 2025 as a much stronger company, giving us the momentum to better serve those who count on us and continue to improve our core performance,” said Stephen Hemsley, chief executive officer of UnitedHealth Group.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Path back to performance under Hemsley
“Adjusted Earnings of Greater Than $18.25 Per Share To view this information in a different format, including graphics, published on our website, click here: https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/content/dam/UHG/PDF/investors/2026/unh-reports-first-quarter-2026-results.pdf (April 21, 2026) UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) today reported first quarter 2026 results, with performance supported by actions taken over the last s…”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Path back to performance under Hemsley
““Our third quarter results reflect the discipline and execution our teams are bringing to every part of our business, as we continue evolving UnitedHealth Group to deliver a simpler, more supportive experience for patients and the clinicians who care for them,” said Stephen Hemsley, chief executive officer of UnitedHealth Group.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Right-sizing and refocus
“Among the expectations: • 2026 revenues are projected to exceed $439.0 billion, a 2% year-over-year decline reflecting planned right-sizing across the enterprise.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Right-sizing and refocus
“Actions included: • Refocusing the organization on U.S. health care, exiting non-U.S. businesses.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Right-sizing and refocus
“People served contracted by 380,000 in the second quarter 2026 primarily due to the planned exit from the Louisiana health plan, as well as ongoing Medicaid eligibility requirements.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Right-sizing and refocus
“Seniors served through Medicare Advantage, including programs serving complex populations included in Medicaid, have contracted by 935,000 since year-end 2025.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Governance, transparency and reforms
“Page 2 of 21 The company has taken steps to enhance its transparency, including releasing the results of its first independent reviews of business practices, with additional reviews and actions under way.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Governance, transparency and reforms
“Creating a Public Responsibility Committee of the Board, naming a Lead Independent Director and new committee chairs, adding a new independent director and accelerating the board recruiting process.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Governance, transparency and reforms
“Page 3 of 17 Addressing America’s Healthcare Challenges with Sustainable Solutions UnitedHealth Group remains committed to addressing the issues that make health care costly and complicated for the people and providers we serve.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
Governance, transparency and reforms
“Created a new Public Responsibility Committee for the Board of Directors, named a new Lead Independent Director and new committee chairs and added a new independent director.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
AI and technology investment
“New products coming to market in the first quarter included the launch of AI powered claims processing tools that can increase productivity by over 20% for our revenue cycle management customers.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Three Months Ended ·
AI and technology investment
“Accelerating simplification and modernization, including substantial artificial intelligence and cybersecurity investments.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
AI and technology investment
“The operating cost ratio of 12.7% included targeted investments in infrastructure, artificial intelligence, care delivery enhancements, consumer experience and community support.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
AI and technology investment
“The operating cost ratio of 12.8% reflected ongoing investments in operations, consumer and clinician experiences, operational agentification, integrated value-based care and community support.”
Deck UnitedHealth Group Q3 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Cyberattack
- A line in Q4 '24; closed out with $799M of final costs in the Q4 '25 charge.
- Membership
- A headline bullet in the first two releases here (Q4 '24, Q1 '25); from Q4 '25 the story is fewer members by design.
- Cost trend
- First in Q1 '25 (care activity "far above" plan) and the reason for both 2025 cuts; from Q4 '25 the answer is repricing.
- Medicare cuts
- In every 2024-25 release, called "Biden-era" from Q3 '25; absent from the 2026 releases.
- Turnaround
- Hemsley's "path back" leads every release from Q2 '25, after Witty left in May.
- Right-sizing
- From Q4 '25: revenue guided down 2%, UnitedHealthcare to 46.9-47.5M members, non-U.S. businesses exited.
- Governance
- New from Q4 '25: independent reviews, a Public Responsibility Committee, a lead independent director.
- AI
- A product line in Q1 '25; in 2026 the reason given for a higher operating cost ratio, "operational agentification" by Q3.
- New
- Q2 '25: segment outlook tables, debt to capital, days sales outstanding. Q4 '25: adjusted MCR without loss contracts.
- Quiet
- Return on equity last shown Q2 '25; the Optum Insight backlog and value-based patient count last in Q4 '25; no segment outlook table with the Oct '26 raise.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q3 2026 release · 8-K 13 Oct 2026
- Q2 2026 release · 8-K 16 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 8-K 21 Apr 2026
- FY2025 release · 8-K 27 Jan 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 8-K 28 Oct 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 8-K 29 Jul 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 8-K 17 Apr 2025
- FY2024 release · 8-K 16 Jan 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 8-K 15 Oct 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 33% | 27% | · | 11% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 17% |
| Growth & sales | 47% | 27% | 32% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 8% | 25% |
| Pricing & margins | 73% | 53% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 64% | 58% | 58% |
| Guidance & outlook | 47% | 47% | 27% | 33% | 24% | 18% | 42% | 75% |
| Capacity & supply | · | 7% | 5% | 7% | · | · | · | · |
| Capital & financing | 7% | · | 5% | 11% | 9% | · | 8% | · |
| Competition | 13% | · | 5% | · | 7% | · | · | · |
| Products & technology | 40% | 27% | 23% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Macro & regulation | 13% | 7% | 23% | · | 2% | 18% | · | 8% |
| Other | 7% | 13% | 9% | 44% | 40% | 27% | 8% | 8% |
| Questions | 15 | 15 | 22 | 27 | 45 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 23 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
DOJ criminal and civil requests on Medicare, unnamed in the 10-K
Disclosed by 8-K on 24 Jul '25. The FY2025 10-K's Note 12 names only the 2011 whistleblower risk-adjustment case, where the DOJ is fighting a Special Master's March '25 recommendation for the company. No amount or timetable. Separately, the IRS proposed 2017-20 transfer-pricing adjustments on 6 Mar '26, contested.
Tier 2 · under watch
The 73-year-old chair is CEO too, with no end date
Witty left on 12 May '25 for personal reasons; Hemsley, a director since 2000, kept the chair. The proxy calls the combination temporary but sets no date. An independent-chair proposal got 20.3% in Jun '26; the governance chair's vote against rose from 0.6% to 10.3%.
Tier 2 · settling
CEO, CFO, accounting chief and both segment heads changed in 14 months
UnitedHealthcare Jan '25, Optum May '25, CEO May '25, CFO (DeVeydt, from Elevance) Sep '25, chief accounting officer Mar '26. No filing read cites a disagreement.
Tier 3 · improving
A $60M time-vested option grant to the CEO drew 40% against
No annual awards for three years in its place; cliff-vests May '28 with no condition but the share price. Say-on-pay 60% in 2025; after outreach a holding period to 2030 was added and support rose to 82.7% in 2026.
Tier 3 · stable
The audit chair's relative on the payroll; the lead director ran Vanguard
Family of Flynn (audit chair) and two executive officers in non-executive jobs, pay not given. McNabb was Vanguard's CEO to 2018; Vanguard holds 10.1%.
Accounting rule changes 3 in 1 quarters
- Q4 '25Optum Financial Services moved from Optum Health into Optum Insight from 2026 guidance
- Q4 '25Adjusted earnings exclude amortization of 2025 third-party loss contracts ($623M in 2026)
- Q4 '25Medicare Advantage growth counted including complex populations served in Medicaid
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hemsley (chair, CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 53.3M | 28.8M | 4.3% |
| Baker (governance chair)A board seat. | 4.4M | 69.8M | 10.3% |
| Flynn (audit chair)A board seat. | 99.2M | 31.2M | 4.6% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 299.2M | 117.7M | 17.4% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Form 4s, Oct '25-Oct '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Conway, Optum CEO | $0.9M | 2,469 shares in three sales, Apr-Aug '26 |