The Ledger

RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.

Industry Fee intermediaries Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$43.68 → $49.87

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$44 → $50

Show the math

Today's enterprise value to forward EBITDAC held where it is, and management's own two guides applied to it - organic revenue growth of 4-6% a year off the 2026 base, with the margin held at the range guided for this year because nothing management says about later margins carries a number. Net debt of $3,430.6m is subtracted before the division. Economic shares here are Class A plus Class B, because each Class B share sits beside an exchangeable LLC unit. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$20$40$60$80Today (Oct 2026): $44, the market price$44TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $50 a share if management delivers$5012 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $57 a share if management delivers$5724 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $64 a share if management delivers$6436 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: the buyback keeps retiring sharesshares -6.2% a year as in the half to Jul '26 - but only $258M of authorisation was left$44$50236M sh$57221M sh$64208M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Today's enterprise value - $44 × 255.8M economic shares, plus $3,570.7m of long-term debt, less $140.1m of cash - over the EBITDAC management guides for 2026: 2025's total revenue of $3,051.1m grown at the guided mid-single-digit organic rate, at the guided margin of down 50-100bp on 2025's 31.7%. That is 14×, held unchanged in every year shown. Excluded from net debt: the $464m tax receivable agreement liability, which is a claim on future tax savings rather than borrowing.
  2. The compounding. Organic revenue growth "in the mid single digits for 2026", read as 4-6% and held for the three years after it, and the margin held where 2026 is guided. Management's forward margin language - "our goal of modest margin expansion in most years" - has no figure attached, and the one figure it did have, 35% by the end of 2027, was withdrawn. The about $80m of annual Empower run-rate savings management quantified for 2029 would be roughly two and a half points of margin, and the same slide says Empower "creates the flexibility to expand margin while we keep investing", so it is named here and left out of the arithmetic.
  3. The arithmetic. (enterprise value if delivered − net debt) ÷ shares. Net debt starts at $3.4B and does not change: no new borrowing is assumed and none repaid. The share count falls from the 27 Jul 2026 count at the pace of the half before it; there are no convertibles and no warrants, so 0M shares are added anywhere, and the 133.7m exchangeable LLC units are already in the count rather than added later.

Promises vs. what happened

9 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Net leverage inside 3-4xQ1 '243.3x - on a redefined basisHeld
First-ever $300M buybackQ4 '25doubled to $600M; $342M spentHeld
Underwriting management gains shareQ2 '2522% of commissions to 34%Held
M&A keeps adding to growthQ4 '24acquired revenue $268M to $128M; none in '26Late
Binding-authority panel consolidationQ2 '2514% of commissions to 12%, then unreportedDropped
Margin expands modestly in most yearsQ2 '2632.2%, 31.7%, 31.6%; '26 guided downOpen
Empower makes room to expand marginQ2 '26no figure on the slide; openOpen
Ryan Re approaching ~$2bn of premiumQ2 '26stated once, with no dateOpen
Double-digit organic growthQ1 '2412.8%, 10.1%, then 8.9%; slide droppedMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q1
'24
Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q2
'26

OrganicPage one since Q1 '24

The thesisOff page one Q2 '26

E&SFirst seen Q1 '24

DelegatedNew Q2 '25 · Page one since Q3 '25

M&AFirst seen Q1 '24

ProducersFirst seen Q1 '24

EmpowerFirst seen Q2 '26

CapitalFirst seen Q1 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q1 '24 · headline page

“20.6% 13.7% 3/31/24 YTD total revenue growth 3/31/24 YTD organic revenue growth2 2010 founded”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2024 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q3 '24 · headline page

“19.9% 13.3% 9/30/24 YTD total revenue growth 9/30/24 YTD organic revenue growth2 2010 founded”

Deck Investor Presentation November 2024 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q4 '24 · headline page

“21.1% 12.8% 2024 total revenue growth 2024 organic revenue growth2 2010 founded”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2025 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q1 '25 · headline page

“25.0% 12.9% 3/31/25 YTD total revenue growth 3/31/25 YTD organic revenue growth2 2010 founded”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2025 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q2 '25 · headline page

“23.9% 9.6% 6/30/25 YTD total revenue growth 6/30/25 YTD organic revenue growth2 2010 founded”

Deck Investor Presentation July 2025 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q3 '25 · headline page

“WHO WE ARE 11.4% 9/30/25 LTM”

Deck Investor Presentation October 2025 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q4 '25 · headline page

“WHO WE ARE 10.1% 2025”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 4 ·

Double-digit organic growth on the headline slide

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Revenue CAGR 2019-2025 2nd”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 4 ·

Founding thesis — retail brokers consolidate panels onto bigger wholesalers

Q1 '24 · headline page

“Retail broker panel consolidation is intensifying”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2024 · p. 3 ·

Founding thesis — retail brokers consolidate panels onto bigger wholesalers

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Retail brokers require a more wholistic solution from fewer trading partners”

Deck Investor Presentation November 2024 · p. 3 ·

Founding thesis — retail brokers consolidate panels onto bigger wholesalers

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Retail brokers require a more holistic solution from fewer trading partners”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 3 ·

Founding thesis — retail brokers consolidate panels onto bigger wholesalers

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Retailers are reducing the number of specialty providers through panel consolidation, which benefits scaled platforms”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 12 ·

E&S market tailwind

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“E&S market growth is outpacing admitted market growth by”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2024 · p. 13 ·

E&S market tailwind

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Emergence of novel health risks 1 For the year ended 12/31/2024 78% OF OUR PREMIUMS ARE PLACED IN THE ATTRACTIVE E&S MARKET1”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2025 · p. 6 ·

E&S market tailwind

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Emergence of novel health risks 1 For the year ended 12/31/2025 78% OF OUR PREMIUMS ARE PLACED IN THE ATTRACTIVE E&S MARKET1”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 6 ·

E&S market tailwind

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“E&S market share is durable, as”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 23 ·

Delegated underwriting authority as the growth engine

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Our Platform Is Well Positioned to Gain Share in a Fast-Growing Market”

Deck Investor Presentation July 2025 · p. 16 ·

Delegated underwriting authority as the growth engine

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Largest Delegated”

Deck Investor Presentation October 2025 · p. 4 ·

Delegated underwriting authority as the growth engine

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Largest Delegated”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 4 ·

Delegated underwriting authority as the growth engine

Q2 '26 · headline page

“#1 Delegated Underwriting Authority (“DUA”)1”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 5 ·

M&A engine

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“◼ 52 acquisitions completed since founding”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2024 · p. 12 ·

M&A engine

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“ 58 acquisitions completed since founding”

Deck Investor Presentation November 2024 · p. 12 ·

M&A engine

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“ M&A opportunity is ripe, and there is a nascent opportunity for panel consolidation in Binding Authority”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2025 · p. 13 ·

M&A engine

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“ Ample M&A opportunity in highly fragmented U.S. market”

Deck Investor Presentation July 2025 · p. 12 ·

M&A engine

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“ 63 acquisitions completed since founding”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 12 ·

M&A engine

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Disciplined approach to M&A that compounds long-term value creation”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 16 ·

Talent — producer hiring and retention

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“Ryan Specialty had 98% producer retention in 2023”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2024 · p. 8 ·

Talent — producer hiring and retention

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Ryan Specialty had 97% producer retention in 2023”

Deck Investor Presentation November 2024 · p. 8 ·

Talent — producer hiring and retention

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“New hire classes typically cover their costs by the end of year two, hitting target margins by the end of year three”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2025 · p. 12 ·

Talent — producer hiring and retention

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Ryan Specialty had 96% producer retention in 2025”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 8 ·

Talent — producer hiring and retention

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“New hire classes contribute organically from day 1, typically cover costs by the end of year two, and hit target margins by the end of year three”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 13 ·

Margin expansion through Empower

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Empower now creates the flexibility to expand margin while we keep investing.”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 17 ·

Balance sheet and capital return

Q1 '24 · further in the deck

“◼ Leverage remains below Ryan Specialty’s stated leverage corridor of 3 – 4x”

Deck Investor Presentation May 2024 · p. 15 ·

Balance sheet and capital return

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“ In February 2025, increased regular quarterly dividend 9% to $0.12/share on outstanding Class A common stock”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2025 · p. 16 ·

Balance sheet and capital return

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“ In February 2026, announced an inaugural $300 million share repurchase authorization”

Deck Investor Presentation February 2026 · p. 18 ·

Balance sheet and capital return

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Disciplined Capital Allocation Framework7”

Deck Investor Presentation August 2026 · p. 18 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Organic
The "Who we are" slide led with year-to-date organic growth from 13.7% down to 10.1%, through February 2026. The August 2026 deck replaces it with a 26% revenue growth rate measured from 2019; the H1 '26 organic rate of 8.9% appears further back.
The thesis
Retail brokers consolidating panels onto bigger wholesalers was the first content slide from May 2024 to February 2026. In August 2026 it moves to a general secular-trends page.
E&S
In four of eight. August 2026 adds that the excess-and-surplus share is durable - after the April 2026 call cited property rate cuts of 25-35% in catastrophe-exposed lines. No deck mentions pricing or property softening.
Delegated
Added July 2025 with its own slide; "1st largest delegated underwriter" joins the headline in October 2025; by August 2026 the whole deck is organised around two segments. 22% of commissions in Q1 '24 LTM, 34% in 2025, 48% at Jun '26.
M&A
52 deals at May 2024, 63 by February 2026 - and still 63 in August 2026, which gets a full M&A page. Acquired revenue fell from $268M to $128M, and the Q2 '26 call says a meaningful deal is unlikely to close this year.
Producers
2023 producer retention reads 98% in May 2024 and 97% in November. "Cover their costs by year two" gains the word "typically" in February 2025, and the retention figure becomes a 2021-2025 average after it fell to 96%.
Empower
New in August 2026: a page arguing growth was deliberately put ahead of near-term margin, with no charge and no savings figure on it. The earlier restructuring programmes appear only in the reconciliation footnotes.
Capital
Buybacks enter in February 2026 with the first authorisation in the company's history; August 2026 adds a capital-allocation page that puts growth investment as the first call on cash.
New
August 2026: the Empower margin page, the M&A page, the capital-allocation page, and "Ryan Re approaching ~$2bn of premium" - stated once, with no date and nothing earlier to compare it with.
Quiet
Headline organic growth, the specialty mix between wholesale, binding authority and underwriting management, and revenue acquired by year all stopped. Persistence 0.57.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers5%·18%8%6%7%10%16%
Growth & sales29%43%45%28%39%50%38%42%
Pricing & margins24%14%9%16%22%36%31%16%
Guidance & outlook5%43%9%28%22%36%28%26%
Capacity & supply10%·9%·11%·3%5%
Capital & financing5%21%27%12%22%14%7%5%
Competition5%·9%8%6%7%10%5%
Products & technology··9%12%17%·7%·
Macro & regulation·7%··6%14%14%·
Other38%29%27%44%11%14%31%47%
Questions2114112518142919
How much the CEO talked40%32%36%19%32%36%19%23%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    77.1% of the votes, about 48% of the money, and the right to name the whole board

    Class B carries ten votes to Class A's one. Patrick G. Ryan holds 15,678,471 Class A and 112,048,184 Class B shares at 2026-03-02 - 77.1% of the combined voting power - and officers and directors together 82.5%. The Director Nomination Agreement from the 2021 listing lets the Ryan Parties designate "all of the nominees for election to our Board" while they hold half their listing-date stake, on a sliding scale to 20%, and the agreement itself says this "could result in representation on our Board that is disproportionate" to their ownership. The right falls away on his death or disability, except for one nominee.

  2. Tier 2 · improving

    Nine charter amendments in one meeting

    At the 2025-05-30 meeting the owners approved, effective the same day: declassifying the board with annual elections phased in to 2028, majority voting in uncontested elections, removal of directors by majority, 2029-09-30 as the outside date for the ten-to-one vote to sunset, action by written consent, the right to call special meetings, the end of two springing supermajorities, and officer exculpation to the Delaware limit. Each passed with under 12m votes against out of about 1.31bn.

  3. Tier 2 · live

    The private-equity co-owner sold out at $54.50; the founder bought at $32.50

    Two insider sales totalling $232.9m in the year to Q2 '26 against eleven purchases of $19.9m, none of the selling pre-planned - net selling of about 5.1% of market value, the largest among the companies covered here. Onex sold its whole remaining 4,145,621 Class A shares at $54.50 on 5 Dec '25, about $226m, and its board designee Robert Le Blanc retired two months later; the chief executive sold 129,570 at $53.61 a week after Onex. The stock is now 30% below both. The buying was at the other end: the founder 120,000 at $32.50 in June, the chief financial officer 6,300 at $31.79, the company itself 9.1m shares at about $32.95.

  4. Tier 2 · worsening

    A president terminated, two co-presidents installed, and the founder is 88

    Jeremiah Bickham separated as president on 2025-10-08 in what the proxy calls "an involuntarily termination without cause", for $4,248,224, and was replaced by two co-presidents - one of whom, the 8-K discloses, is married to the founder's niece and so a cousin-in-law of a director. The founder is 88 and Executive Chairman; his son, 58, has been a director since 2024. The board also lost its lead director, who died in July 2025 after thirteen years, and Onex's designee, who retired in February 2026 and has not been replaced: twelve directors against an authorised thirteen.

  5. Tier 2 · worsening

    The growth promise, and the margin target, both left

    A "Double digit organic growth" build-up slide ran in seven decks from May 2024 to February 2026, where the label became "Industry-leading"; the August 2026 deck drops it, after organic growth went 12.8%, 10.1%, 8.9% and 6.7% in Q2 '26 alone. A 35% adjusted EBITDAC margin "by the end of 2027", given in February 2025 and reaffirmed in August, was deferred with no new date on 2025-10-30 - the month the president left. Three of seven tracked measures stopped: headline organic growth, the specialty mix, and revenue acquired by year. Binding authority stopped being shown alone after Q4 '25 at 12% of commissions; producer retention became a five-year average after it fell to 96%; net leverage moved to a credit basis that counts savings before they arrive. The pipeline's own management gate fails this name: 1 beat, 2 met, 3 missed, 1 withdrawn.

  6. Tier 3 · improving

    The chief executive earned $1.45m, because the performance units paid nothing

    Total compensation of $1,454,058 for 2025 - $1,442,308 of salary and $11,750 of 401(k) contributions, no bonus, no stock, no incentive payout - against a $3,000,000 target award granted in February 2025. The proxy's reason is explicit: "actual performance results determined as of December 31, 2025, resulted in no PLUs and PSUs being earned". The pay ratio is 16 to 1 on a median employee at $92,847.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Advisory vote on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.—0.20M0.02%
Re-elect O'Halleran (chairs Geneva Re; not independent)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.63.1M withheld—4.8% in '25
Re-elect Kuczinski (audit and pay)A board seat.—8.14M0.7%
Declassify the board and phase in annual electionsElect the whole board every year. Where only a third of the directors stand each year, it takes three years to replace the board. Annual elections make every seat answerable to shareholders every year, so shareholders gain power; a no keeps the board harder to remove.0.01M—0.0% in '25
Sunset the ten-to-one Class B vote by 30 Sep '29Equal votes per share. Some shares carry many votes each, which keeps control with the founders whatever outside shareholders own. Ending that gives every share the same vote. More shareholder power.0.02M—0.0% in '25
Ratify Deloitte & ToucheThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.—0.11M0.01%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26SoldNote
Onex$226Mits whole remaining 4,145,621 Class A shares at $54.50 on 5 Dec '25 - and its board designee retired two months later
Timothy Turner (CEO)$6.9M129,570 Class A at $53.61 on 12 Dec '25, a week after Onex, and about a tenth of what he holds
Against that$19.9Meleven purchases by six people, including the founder at $32.50 and the CFO at $31.79 in Jun '26