ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.
Industry Insurance Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$102 → $117
Promises vs. what happened
11 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value compounds at about 15.8% a year | Q3 '24 | held at 15.7-15.9% — but on book plus dividends from Q4 '24, not book alone | Held |
| 2x the industry's value creation at 82% of its volatility | Q3 '24 | 2x in every deck; volatility 82% to 85% and the peer window moved | Held |
| Writes less catastrophe risk as the market softens | Q3 '24 | peak-zone PML 9.2% to 8.0% of tangible equity; property cat 14% to 11% of reinsurance premium | Held |
| Diversification delivers stability and profitable growth | Q1 '26 | profitable, not growing: premium flat at $22.8bn, and "& Profitable Growth" left the title | Late |
| Mortgage is a consistent source of earnings | Q3 '24 | $1,113M to $951M of trailing underwriting income; "Consistent" left the slide in Q2 '25 | Late |
| Investment income is growing | Q3 '24 | +2.6% on a portfolio up 14%; the "Growing" title went in Q1 '25 | Late |
| Net income grows across diversified sources | Q3 '24 | dropped after the trailing figure fell from $5.67bn to $3.73bn | Dropped |
| PMIERs phase-in to 30 Sep '26, sufficiency 173% pro forma | Q3 '24 | dropped after one deck; the phase-in cannot be checked from the decks | Dropped |
| Mortgage credit quality: 1.96% delinquency | Q3 '24 | the chart appeared once and never again | Dropped |
| Net-zero Scope 1 and 2 by 2030 | Q3 '24 | dropped after Q4 '24; no progress figure was ever shown | Dropped |
| Reinvest, then cut leverage, then buy back | Q1 '26 | missed: leverage went 13.2% to 18.1% while $1.9bn was spent on buybacks | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
ScalePage one since Q3 '24
Peer chartFirst seen Q3 '24
CycleFirst seen Q3 '24
MortgageFirst seen Q3 '24
InvestmentsFirst seen Q3 '24
Balance sheetFirst seen Q3 '24
Book valueFirst seen Q3 '24
SustainabilityFirst seen Q3 '24
Combined ratioPage one since Q1 '26
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“Arch Operates Leading Specialty Insurance Lines Across a”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“Arch Operates Leading Specialty Insurance Lines Across a”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“Arch Operates Leading Specialty Insurance Lines Across a”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“Arch Operates Leading Specialty Insurance Lines Across a”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“Arch Operates Leading Specialty Insurance Lines Across a”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“Arch Operates Leading Specialty Insurance Lines Across a”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“A Leading Global Specialty Insurer”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 3 ·
Leading specialty insurer, sized by gross premiums written
“A Leading Global Specialty Insurer”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 3 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 82% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 5 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 82% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 5 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 82% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 5 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 82% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 5 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 84% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 5 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 85% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 5 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 83% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 6 ·
Superior risk-adjusted returns against peers
“Arch has 2x the average value creation of the industry and 83% of the average volatility around the industry average.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 6 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“Active cycle management”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 4 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“Active cycle management”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 4 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“Active cycle management”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 4 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“Managed Catastrophe Risk”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 7 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“Managed Catastrophe Risk”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 7 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“Managed Catastrophe Risk”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 7 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“ Simple in concept, difficult to execute. Successful insurers write more business when opportunities are good and less when conditions deteriorate.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 5 ·
Cycle management and managed catastrophe risk
“ Simple in concept, difficult to execute. Successful insurers write more business when opportunities are good and less when conditions deteriorate.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 5 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Consistent Strong Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 11 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Consistent Source of Globally Diversified Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 8 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Consistent Source of Globally Diversified Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 8 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Mortgage Insurance Diversifies Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 8 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Mortgage Insurance Diversifies Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 8 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Mortgage Insurance Diversifies Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 8 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Mortgage Insurance Diversifies Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 9 ·
Mortgage insurance as a diversifier
“Mortgage Insurance Diversifies Earnings”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 9 ·
Investment income
“Growing Investment Income”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 13 ·
Investment income
“Growing Investment Income”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 10 ·
Investment income
“Investment Income a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 10 ·
Investment income
“Investment Income a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 10 ·
Investment income
“Investment Income a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 10 ·
Investment income
“Investment Income a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 10 ·
Investment income
“Investment Income a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 11 ·
Investment income
“Investment Income a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 11 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“Low financial leverage and strong liquidity”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 4 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“Low financial leverage and strong liquidity”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 4 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“Low financial leverage and strong liquidity”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 4 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“Low financial leverage and strong liquidity”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 4 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“Low financial leverage and strong liquidity”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 4 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“Low financial leverage and strong liquidity”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 4 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“2. Reduce financial leverage.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 5 ·
Conservative balance sheet and capital allocation
“2. Reduce financial leverage.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 5 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Superior Value Creation 1 Excluding the effects of stock options and restricted stock units outstanding 2 Available to Arch, including senior debt, preferred equity, common stock and AOCI.”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 17 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Common Dividends 15.7% 3”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 14 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Cumulative Common Dividends 15.7% 3”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 14 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Cumulative Common Dividends 15.8% 3”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 12 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Cumulative Common Dividends 15.9% 3”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 12 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Cumulative Common Dividends 15.9% 3”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 12 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Accumulated Common Dividends”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 12 ·
Long-run book value compounding
“Book Value per Common Share1 + Accumulated Common Dividends”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 12 ·
Sustainability
“Our ESG Focus Areas and 2023 Sustainability Highlights”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Third Quarter · p. 15 ·
Sustainability
“Our Sustainability Focus Areas and Highlights”
Deck Investor Presentation 2024 Fourth Quarter · p. 12 ·
Sustainability
“Our Sustainability Framework”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 First Quarter · p. 12 ·
Sustainability
“Links to Sustainability Documents”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Second Quarter · p. 11 ·
Sustainability
“Links to Sustainability Documents”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Third Quarter · p. 11 ·
Sustainability
“Links to Sustainability Documents”
Deck Investor Presentation 2025 Fourth Quarter · p. 11 ·
Combined ratio on the front slide
“Ratio 80.8%”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 First Quarter · p. 3 ·
Combined ratio on the front slide
“Ratio 81.3%”
Deck Investor Presentation 2026 Second Quarter · p. 3 ·
What they keep talking about · 11
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Scale
- The opening slide of all eight. Through Q4 '25 it is the premium chart; from Q1 '26 a new front slide leads with capital, ratings and a combined ratio, and the premium chart moves back a page — the quarter premium stopped growing.
- Peer chart
- The same scatter in every deck: 2x the industry's value creation at 82% of its volatility. The multiple never moves; the window and the excluded peers do, and volatility drifts to 85% then back to 83%.
- Cycle
- "Active cycle management" to Q1 '25, then "Managed Catastrophe Risk", then a sentence about writing more when opportunities are good. The hard-market and soft-market labels came off the risk chart in Q2 '25 and have not come back.
- Mortgage
- Four slides in Q3 '24 — process, insurance in force, delinquency, earnings — and one from Q4 '24. Trailing underwriting income falls in every single deck, $1,113M to $951M.
- Investments
- "Growing Investment Income" until the quarter the number fell to $431M, then "a Steady Contributor to Book Value Growth". Quarterly bars became annual bars in Q1 '26, which hides the dips.
- Balance sheet
- "Low financial leverage and strong liquidity" was a standing pillar through Q4 '25. Q1 '26 replaced it with an ordered list whose second line is "Reduce financial leverage". The next deck printed 18.1%.
- Book value
- The one long-run number Arch publishes, and the measure its chief executive calls preferred: a 15.7-15.9% compound rate over 25 years. Book value alone in Q3 '24; book value plus dividends from Q4 '24, the deck after the $5.00 special.
- Sustainability
- Two slides to Q1 '25, a links page to Q4 '25, nothing from Q1 '26 but a line on the contact slide. The 2030 net-zero goal went with the first rewrite.
- Combined ratio
- New on the front slide in Q1 '26 at 80.8%, then 81.3%. No deck before it showed a combined ratio at all — it arrived with the quarter premium growth stopped.
- New
- Q1 '26: a trailing combined ratio and a capital-allocation order on the front slide; Q2 '26 adds the portfolio's average credit rating (AA-/Aa3) and extends the risk chart to 7/1/26.
- Quiet
- Net income by source, the mortgage delinquency rate and the PMIERs sufficiency ratio all stopped — the last two after a single appearance, with the PMIERs phase-in still running to 30 Sep '26.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 2026 release · 8-K 28 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 8-K 28 Apr 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 8-K 9 Feb 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 8-K 27 Oct 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 8-K 29 Jul 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 8-K 29 Apr 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 8-K 10 Feb 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 8-K 30 Oct 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 9% | 5% | 19% | 11% | 8% | 9% | · | · |
| Growth & sales | 22% | 12% | 19% | 29% | 27% | 16% | 26% | 30% |
| Pricing & margins | 22% | 9% | 33% | 29% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 22% |
| Guidance & outlook | 4% | 9% | 14% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Capacity & supply | 4% | 5% | 10% | · | · | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Capital & financing | 9% | 5% | 14% | 11% | 27% | 11% | 20% | 19% |
| Competition | 4% | 12% | 10% | · | · | · | · | 19% |
| Products & technology | · | · | · | 7% | 4% | 5% | 11% | · |
| Macro & regulation | · | 2% | · | 11% | · | · | · | · |
| Other | 52% | 60% | 29% | 32% | 38% | 64% | 51% | 37% |
| Questions | 23 | 43 | 21 | 28 | 26 | 44 | 35 | 27 |
| How much the CEO talked | 52% | 60% | 58% | 53% | 43% | 38% | 54% | 61% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · worsening
The buyback is part-funded by debt, the quarter after the leverage pillar left the deck
H1 '26: $1,977m of borrowings drawn against $398m repaid, $1,949m spent on 20.7m of its own shares, and shareholders' equity down $176m despite $2,104m of net income. Debt and preferred went from 13.2% of total capital at Dec '25 and Mar '26 to 18.1% at Jun '26. Every deck through Q4 '25 carried a "Low financial leverage" pillar; Q1 '26 replaced it with an ordered capital list, and Q2 '26 printed 18.1%. No deck gives a reason.
Tier 2 · worsening
Nine officer or director changes in three years, and the insurance president left effective immediately
Every amber row in the three-year disclosure sweep is an Item 5.02. They include the October 2024 chief executive handover and, on 2026-06-03, David Gansberg stepping down as President "effective immediately" and leaving after 25 years — the head of the segment whose underlying combined ratio had just worsened. No reason is given. Arch collapsed to a single president, handing Rajeh insurance on top of reinsurance and mortgage with no new equity award.
Tier 2 · live
Arch guides nothing, and would not size its war losses in two quarters running
No revenue, earnings, margin or return-on-equity guidance in eight calls, and capital-return targets refused in terms. What it does guide — expense lines, loss loads, a tax rate — it hits. Against that: the group catastrophe load was guided at 7-8% in February and called "the 6-8% ... that has not changed" in July; and the Iran and Middle East loss was asked for and not quantified in two consecutive quarters, twice in one call by two analysts, with only an industry figure of about $3bn offered.
Tier 2 · stable
Insiders own 3.3%, sold $29m, and not one sale is on a pre-set plan
All 17 officers and directors held 11,618,680 shares at 2026-03-09, 3.3% of the register, with only chair Pasquesi above 1%. Over the year to Q2 '26 the SEC data sets record 11 sales by 6 insiders worth $29,054,253 against 2 purchases worth $516,017, and 0.0% of the sales carry a 10b5-1 plan flag. Opposite them the register is index money plus Artisan and Baron, with no strategic or family block to object on a holder's behalf.
Tier 2 · stable
The chief executive and the president own slices of an affiliate Arch cedes to
Arch and Kelso sponsored Premia Reinsurance in 2017; Arch Re Bermuda and certain Arch co-investors put in $100m for 25%, and two of those co-investors are officers — Papadopoulo $2.5m for 0.625%, Rajeh $0.5m for 0.125%. Arch services Premia, appoints two of its seven directors, writes a quota share on its business and held $124m of its funds at Dec '25. Rajeh sits on the Premia and Somers boards. Also disclosed: $125k to the Urban Institute, which employs director Goodman, and a retrocession with a fund managed by 7% holder Artisan.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ebong (Class I)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | 33.7M against | 11.3% |
| Mallesch (Class I)A board seat. | — | 6.5M against | 2.2% |
| Posner (Class I)A board seat. | — | 10.2M against | 3.4% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 48.9M against | 17.7M against | 5.9% |
| Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopersThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 16.2M against | 18.4M against | 5.9% |
| Bunce (Class III, stood in 2025)A board seat. | 51.5M against | — | 16.0% in 2025 |
| Report on DEI efforts — defeatedA shareholder's proposal. Put forward by an investor, not the board, which usually asks for a no; a high count of votes for it means many shareholders sided against the board. | 278.5M against | — | 86.7% in 2025 |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insiders | $29.1M | 11 sales by 6 of the 17 officers and directors |
| Of that, pre-planned | $0 | the data set flags none of the eleven as made under a 10b5-1 plan |
| Bought | $0.5M | two insiders bought; net selling is about 0.09% of market value |