ALLThe Allstate Corporation

Industry Insurance Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$253 → $300

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$253 → $300

Show the math

today's price to book, held flat, with book value compounding at the average return on equity Allstate itself publishes — 15.9% over ten years, 22.2% over three — less the share of earnings it is handing back, over a share count the buyback is shrinking. The trailing return is 44.2%, and it is deliberately not used: compounding a hard market for three years would be a forecast of the cycle rather than of management delivering what it has said. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: shares retiredthe share count shrinking 4.9% a year as in the half to Jul '26, on the $4bn authorisation	$253	$300237M sh	$358225M sh	$427213M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Price to book on common shareholders' equity of about $31.7bn at Jun '26 — total equity less the $2.0bn of Series H, I and J preferred — held flat for three years. No re-rating is assumed in either direction; the research sets no price target.
The rate. Return on equity from 15.9% to 22.2%: Allstate's own average adjusted returns over ten years and over three, published on the capital slide of the Q2 '26 deck next to the S&P 500's 16.0%. Not used: the 44.2% trailing figure, which rests on a light catastrophe half and a prior-year reserve release that went from $621m to $1.65bn while the ex-catastrophe ex-development combined ratio moved 81.6 to 79.9. Against that, on a GAAP basis the five years to 2025 averaged 13.0% and two of them were loss years, so 15.9% is a published average, not a floor.
The payout. From 22% to 39% of earnings returned — 2025's dividends and buybacks against net income, and the first half of 2026's. Management refuses to guide the buyback pace, and its own record is uncomfortable: 278,000 shares bought in the whole of 2024 at about $174 while the diluted count rose, then about $1bn a quarter at $205 and above.
The arithmetic. Company value ÷ shares, with no net debt subtracted: a `book` model values the equity, and book value is already net of the $7.5bn of debt and the preferred. Shares fall from 252.9M at 16 Jul 2026 at the pace of the half before it. The rate and the share count are drawn independently, so a draw can pair a 39% payout with only a 5% fall in the count; read the line as the pace Allstate has been running, not as a committed programme.

Promises vs. what happened

13 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Mid-90s auto and low-90s homeowners combined ratio	Q3 '25	beaten by about ten points — 3.9 of them prior-year reserve release	Held
Sell Employer Voluntary Benefits by mid-2025	Q3 '24	closed 1 Apr '25 for the $2.0bn stated	Held
$3.25bn from two divestitures during 2025	Q4 '24	closed 1 Jul '25; $3.25bn exactly as stated	Held
About $1.05bn of after-tax gain	Q4 '24	$1.1bn in the equity bridge — in line	Held
California wildfire: $2.0bn gross in Q1 '25	Q4 '24	landed as flagged; no wildfire-only net figure was ever given	Held
$1.5bn buyback with the dividend raised	Q1 '25	completed in about a year	Held
Cut prices and keep target margins	Q3 '25	held: $810m of premium given back, auto still at 85.0	Held
Protection Plans profit back to 2022 levels	Q3 '24	$157m against $150m — then the line stopped being reported on its own	Held
Auto growth from retention plus new business	Q3 '24	growth came — from new business and $2.1bn of advertising, not retention	Late
Finish the ASC product roll-out	Q4 '24	43 auto states and 31 homeowners, and carried forward again into 2026	Late
Retention improves	Q3 '25	dropped: the renewal ratio was shown once, then retention left the decks	Dropped
A further $4bn buyback	Q4 '25	open: $1.4bn used in two quarters, $2.6bn left	Open
Launch agentic AI and retire legacy systems in 2026	Q4 '25	open: the architecture is described, nothing launched or retired yet	Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

Auto marginOff page one Q2 '26

GrowthOff page one Q2 '26

CostOff page one Q1 '26

CatastrophesFirst seen Q3 '24

AffordabilityOff page one Q1 '26

ReleasesFirst seen Q4 '24

AIFirst seen Q3 '25

CapitalPage one since Q4 '25

ProtectionOff page one Q4 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Auto profit repair and margins

Q3 '24 · headline page

“➢ Property-Liability business positioned for growth o Successfully executed auto profit improvement plan o Near-term auto insurance policy growth will require increased customer retention and new business o Homeowners business generated strong returns and is growing o Transformative Growth investment for sustainable growth”

Deck Q3 2024 Earnings Call Presentation · p. 3 · 30 Oct 2024

Auto profit repair and margins

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Auto Profit Improvement Restored Target Margins”

Deck Q4 2024 Earnings Call Presentation · p. 7 · 5 Feb 2025

Auto profit repair and margins

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Strong auto margins reflects lower frequency and moderating physical damage severity. Strong underlying homeowners margins offset by catastrophe losses”

Deck Q1 2025 Earnings Call Presentation · p. 5 · 30 Apr 2025

Auto profit repair and margins

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Allstate Consistently Delivers Attractive Risk Adjusted Returns”

Deck Q3 2025 Earnings Call Presentation · p. 7 · 5 Nov 2025

Auto profit repair and margins

Q1 '26 · headline page

“− Improved underlying combined ratios”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Call Presentation · p. 3 · 29 Apr 2026

Auto profit repair and margins

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Operational Excellence Enables Rapid Adaptation”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Call Presentation · p. 9 · 5 Aug 2026