The Ledger

AMGAffiliated Managers Group, Inc.

Industry Fee intermediaries Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$383 → $458

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$383 → $458

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. AMG guides one quarter at a time, so the base is the run-rate it guides — the Q3 2026 economic EPS guide of $8.43-8.71 on 26.3M shares, annualised to $887-916M of economic net income — held at today's 14× multiple of it. The three years after it grow at the chief executive's long-term rate for economic EPS, 15-20% a year, less the part that comes from buying back stock (management's own ~$600M for 2026, about 6% of the company), because the share count below already shrinks at its past pace: 7.9-12.6% a year for the whole company's earnings. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$200$400$600$800Today (Oct 2026): $383, the market price$383TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $458 a share if management delivers$45812 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $549 a share if management delivers$54924 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $658 a share if management delivers$65836 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares at their past pace-6.1% a year: 26.7M to 25.9M from Feb to Aug '26 on $375M of buybacks$383$45824M sh$54923M sh$65821M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The base. The Q3 2026 guide, $8.43-8.71 of economic EPS on 26.3M shares, annualised: $887-916M of economic net income. The midpoint is about 40% above Q3 2025, the growth rate the CEO expects for 2026 as a whole.
  2. Today's multiple. About thirteen and a half times that run-rate on enterprise value, debt included; on the equity alone about eleven times.
  3. The guided years. The CEO's 'between 15% and 20%' a year of economic EPS, less 6.2% a year of buyback at the 2026 guide — 7.9-12.6% a year for the company's earnings — in each of 2027, 2028 and 2029.
  4. Shares. 25.9M shares at 5 Aug 2026, one class, no warrants; the junior convertible trust preferred was retired in January 2026. Net debt $2.6B, held flat.
  5. What is left out. The partners' equity AMG buys back from Affiliates (about $100M net guided for 2026), new Affiliate investments and the debt that funds them. None has a number for 2027 onward.

Promises vs. what happened

8 claims · 7 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Economic EPS up mid-teens a yearQ3 '24~15% for Jun '21-Jun '26; +54% in Q2 '26Held
Mix keeps moving to alternativesQ3 '2450% to 60% of EBITDAHeld
Alternatives flows carry organic growthQ1 '25LTM flows -$18B to +$56BHeld
Buybacks about 10% of shares a yearQ1 '25count down 38% in five yearsHeld
Performance fees through the cycleQ3 '24every year; record window shortenedHeld
New investments in growth alternativesQ1 '25five deals Q4 '25-Q1 '26Held
Cash funds both investment and buybacksQ1 '25both, alongside debt up to $3.0BHeld
Affiliates generate sustained alphaQ1 '2510-year equities ahead 69% to 62%Late

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

PartnerPage one since Q3 '24

AlternativesFirst seen Q3 '24

EPS growthFirst seen Q3 '24

FlowsFirst seen Q3 '24

Perf. feesFirst seen Q3 '24

BuybacksFirst seen Q1 '25

CapabilitiesFirst seen Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q3 '24 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q3 2024 Investor Overview · Investment Management & Fund Operators ·

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q1 '25 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q1 2025 Investor Overview · p. 2 ·

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q2 '25 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q2 2025 Investor Overview · p. 2 ·

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q3 '25 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q3 2025 Investor Overview · p. 2 ·

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q4 '25 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q4 2025 Investor Overview · p. 2 ·

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q1 '26 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q1 2026 Investor Overview · p. 2 ·

Strategic partner to independent firms

Q2 '26 · headline page

“AMG: Strategic Partner to Industry-Leading Independent Investment Firms”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 2 ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Focus on Alternatives: Approximately 50% of AMG Earnings from Alternatives”

Deck AMG Q3 2024 Investor Overview · Strong Recurring Cash Flow ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Strategic Expansion of AMG’s Exposure to Alternative Asset Classes”

Deck AMG Q1 2025 Investor Overview · p. 3 ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Strategic Expansion of AMG’s Exposure to Alternative Asset Classes”

Deck AMG Q2 2025 Investor Overview · p. 3 ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Strategic Expansion of AMG’s Exposure to Alternative Asset Classes”

Deck AMG Q3 2025 Investor Overview · p. 3 ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Strategic Expansion of AMG’s Exposure to Alternative Asset Classes”

Deck AMG Q4 2025 Investor Overview · p. 3 ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Strategic Expansion of AMG’s Exposure to Alternative Asset Classes”

Deck AMG Q1 2026 Investor Overview · p. 3 ·

Shift toward alternatives

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Evolving Business Mix T owards High-Growth Alternatives 1.”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 4 ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q3 2024 Investor Overview · Committed to ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Earnings Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q1 2025 Investor Overview · p. 5 ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Earnings Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q2 2025 Investor Overview · p. 5 ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Earnings Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q3 2025 Investor Overview · p. 5 ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Earnings Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q4 2025 Investor Overview · p. 5 ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Earnings Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q1 2026 Investor Overview · p. 5 ·

Mid-teens earnings compounding

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Mid-Teens Annualized Long-Term Earnings Growth Opportunity”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 5 ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Organic Growth: Strategic Focus on Secular Growth Areas”

Deck AMG Q3 2024 Investor Overview · Enduring Franchises ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Strong Private Markets Fundraising and Improving Liquid Alternative Flows, Offset by Continued Headwinds in Equities 8”

Deck AMG Q1 2025 Investor Overview · p. 8 ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Strong Private Markets Fundraising and Improving Liquid Alternative Flows, Offset by Continued Headwinds in Equities 8”

Deck AMG Q2 2025 Investor Overview · p. 8 ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Strong Private Markets Fundraising and Liquid Alternative Flows, Offset by Continued Headwinds in Equities 8”

Deck AMG Q3 2025 Investor Overview · p. 8 ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Strong Private Markets Fundraising and Liquid Alternative Flows, Offset by Continued Headwinds in Equities 8”

Deck AMG Q4 2025 Investor Overview · p. 8 ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Strong Private Markets Fundraising and Liquid Alternative Flows, Offset by Continued Headwinds in Equities 8”

Deck AMG Q1 2026 Investor Overview · p. 8 ·

Alternative inflows against equity outflows

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Strong Private Markets Fundraising and Liquid Alternative Flows, Offset by Continued Headwinds in Equities 6”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 6 ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q3 2024 Investor Overview · Enduring Franchises ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q1 2025 Investor Overview · p. 9 ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q2 2025 Investor Overview · p. 9 ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q3 2025 Investor Overview · p. 9 ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q4 2025 Investor Overview · p. 9 ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q1 2026 Investor Overview · p. 9 ·

Performance fees as earnings stability

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Affiliate Investment Performance: Source of Earnings Stability”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 10 ·

Returning excess capital

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Capital Allocation: Returning Excess Capital to Shareholders”

Deck AMG Q1 2025 Investor Overview · p. 15 ·

Returning excess capital

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Capital Allocation: Returning Excess Capital to Shareholders”

Deck AMG Q2 2025 Investor Overview · p. 15 ·

Returning excess capital

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Capital Allocation: Returning Excess Capital to Shareholders”

Deck AMG Q3 2025 Investor Overview · p. 15 ·

Returning excess capital

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Capital Allocation: Returning Excess Capital to Shareholders”

Deck AMG Q4 2025 Investor Overview · p. 15 ·

Returning excess capital

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Capital Allocation: Returning Excess Capital to Shareholders”

Deck AMG Q1 2026 Investor Overview · p. 15 ·

Returning excess capital

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Capital Allocation: Returning Excess Capital to Shareholders”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 15 ·

Strategic capabilities for Affiliates

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Affiliates Leverage Strategic Capabilities on a Fully Opt-In Basis”

Deck AMG Q2 2026 Investor Overview · p. 7 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Partner
Page one of all seven decks, unchanged but for AUM (~$730B in Q3 '24, $712B in Q1 '25, $942B by Q2 '26) and the Affiliate count (35+ to 40).
Alternatives
In all five: 50% of EBITDA in Q1 '25, 60% in Q2 '26; Q2 '26 adds a five-year alternatives scorecard.
EPS growth
The mid-teens long-term rate on every deck; Q2 '26 adds a ~15% trailing five-year EEPS rate beside it.
Flows
Private-markets fundraising and alternatives inflows against equity outflows; 'Improving' was dropped from the liquid-alternatives line in Q3 '25.
Perf. fees
A record of fees through the cycle — shown as ten years to Q3 '25, then cut to five years, dropping the strong 2015-2020 run from view.
Buybacks
Share-count reduction since 2020 on every deck: 36% to 38%.
Capabilities
New in Q2 '26: growth capital, capital formation, succession planning and strategic engagement for Affiliates.
New
Q2 '26: the five-year alternatives scorecard — +$201B of net flows, 13 investments, a 17% EBITDA growth rate.
Quiet
Equities AUM ahead of benchmark over ten years slid from 69% to 62% while the slide stayed the same.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

7 calls · Q3 24 – Q1 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26
Demand & customers60%100%25%20%50%25%50%
Growth & sales··75%20%50%75%50%
Pricing & margins··25%20%50%·25%
Guidance & outlook20%·50%·100%25%25%
Capacity & supply···20%···
Capital & financing20%·25%20%··25%
Competition···20%·25%·
Products & technology60%100%50%40%·50%50%
Other···40%·25%·
Questions5245244
How much the CEO talked38%60%19%50%51%30%0%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 2 · live

    Pay and the headline measure both run on economic EPS

    EEPS is in every deck, the 15-20% promise and the bonus scorecard. Shares fell from 46.7M (2020) to 25.9M; buybacks took 60% of 2021-25 operating cash while debt rose to $3.0B. 'Other economic items' added $78M to 2025 economic net income.

  2. Tier 2 · live

    One Affiliate above a fifth of EBITDA

    The CFO put AQR above 20% of 2026 EBITDA in February; asked in Q1 2026, the CEO did not update it. The 10-K now warns some Affiliates could have a disproportionate impact and can force a restructuring or sale.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    $16.1M for a departed President; two senior exits in a year

    Thomas Wojcik, made President in Jun '25, left 6 Mar '26 with $5.025M of cash in 2026 and more in 2027 on a non-compete; the head of Affiliate investments also left in 2025. CEO pay $16.3M, 77 times the median.

  4. Tier 3 · improving

    Independent chair, board mostly new since 2023

    Seven directors, six independent; Loren Starr, Invesco's CFO for 15 years, chairs. Three retirements or departures in a year; all committees independent; every 2026 nominee above 97%.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Horgen (CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.0.28M0.06M0.2%
Starr (Board chair)A board seat.0.52M0.68M2.9%
Palandjian (Compensation chair)A board seat.0.89M0.54M2.4%
Franqui (Audit chair)A board seat.0.22M0.54M2.3%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.0.85M0.48M2.1%
Ratify PwCThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.1.91M1.49M6.1%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Forms 4 filed Oct '25-Oct '26SoldNote
Horgen, chief executive$5.9M17,500 shares at $338.27, 8 Jun '26; 204,706 held after
Wojcik, former President$2.3M8,000 shares on his last day, 6 Mar '26
Ryan, former director$1.0M3,402 shares, 6 May '26
Cates and Franqui, directorsbought $0.69M2,250 shares at about $305, May-Jun '26