The Ledger

MRNAModerna, Inc.

Industry Pharma Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$200 → $202

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$200 → $202

Show the math

today's multiple of 35× on 2026's guided revenue, held flat, with revenue compounding at the 0-10% a year management guides for 2026. No margin is applied: Moderna loses money and guides costs and year-end cash, not an operating margin. Company value plus cash and investments, less the term loan and the convertible notes, divided by a share count that grows with stock pay. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$50$100$150$200$250Today (Oct 2026): $200, the market price$200TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $202 a share if management delivers$20212 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $206 a share if management delivers$20624 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $210 a share if management delivers$21036 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count grows about 2.5% a year as in Feb-Jul '26: option exercises and vesting, no buybacks$200$202412M sh$206422M sh$210432M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value today ($200 times 399.2M shares, plus the $0.6B term loan and the $3.0B convertible notes of Sep '26, less $6.9B of cash and investments at Jun '26 and the notes' $2.6B net proceeds) over 2026's guided revenue: 35×. Held, so none of the rise is a re-rating.
  2. The growth. "Up to 10% growth from 2025" on 2025's $1,944M: $1.94-2.14B for 2026, a ceiling with no floor. The same 0-10% is carried through 2027-29. Management says Europe and new flu and combination vaccines add revenue from 2027, but has put no number on any year after 2026.
  3. The margin. None is assumed. The decks guide cost of sales, R&D, SG&A, a cash-cost target ($4.0B for 2026) and year-end cash ($4.7-5.2B); cash breakeven in 2028 was last shown in Q3 '25. Holding price-to-sales holds today's losses implicitly.
  4. The shares. No stock is sold and none is bought beyond the past pace: the count grows as it did in the half to 24 Jul 2026. About 31M options and the convertible's 14.2M shares (at $210.58, with capped calls up to $392.62) are not in today's count. Not in the value either: a further $1.3B patent payment owed if Moderna loses its appeal.

Promises vs. what happened

16 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
2024 sales $3.0-3.5BQ3 '24$3.1B, with a $0.2B reserve releaseHeld
Three filings in 2024Q3 '24all filed; two approvedHeld
2025 revenue $1.5-2.5BQ4 '24$1.94B, range cut twiceHeld
2025 year-end cash ~$6BQ4 '24$8.1B, $0.6B of it borrowedHeld
Three plants online in 2025Q3 '24done; first UK shipment Q1 '26Held
Flu filings in four regionsQ3 '25U.S. refused to file, then acceptedLate
Ten approvals in three yearsQ4 '24last shown Q2 '25Dropped
Cash breakeven in 2028Q1 '25not shown since Q3 '25Dropped
RSV share gains in 2025Q3 '24sales never reported againDropped
$1.4-1.7B cost cut by 2027Q1 '25R&D already under the 2027 levelOpen
Up to 10% growth in 2026Q4 '25reiterated; 1H '26 $0.53BOpen
CMV Phase 3 data in 2025Q4 '24on time, and failedMissed
Flu + COVID combo, U.S. 2026Q1 '25no U.S. filing pending; EU approvedMissed
2026 year-end cash $5.5-6.0BQ4 '25cut to $4.5-5.0B, then $4.7-5.2BMissed
MMA pivotal start 1H '25Q3 '24slipped twice, then deferredMissed
Norovirus Phase 3 data 2026Q4 '25interim test failed; cohort addedMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

CostsPage one since Q3 '24

Ten approvalsOff page one Q1 '25

COVIDFirst seen Q3 '24

PartnershipsOff page one Q4 '25

FluPage one since Q1 '25

OncologyPage one since Q1 '26

BreakevenFirst seen Q1 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Continuing to execute with financial discipline”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Reduction from 2023 of 27%”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Reduced operating expenses by 19% ($275 million) from 1Q24 to 1Q251 1. Costs including R&D, SG&A and cost of sales”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Reduced operating expenses by 35% ($555 million) from 2Q24 to 2Q251 1. Costs including R&D, SG&A and cost of sales”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Reduced operating expenses by 34% ($656M) from 3Q24 compared to 3Q251 1. Costs including R&D, SG&A and cost of sales”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Reduction from 2024 of 30%”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Reduced 1Q26 adjusted cash costs1 by 26% compared to 1Q25”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and financial discipline

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Reduced cash costs1 by 10% in 2Q26 compared to 2Q25 4 1.Cash costs = GAAP expenses − stock-based compensation − depreciation and amortization”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 4 ·

Ten product approvals ($30B+ TAM)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Our execution priorities 27 2 Focus on 10 product approvals over the next 3 years to drive sales growth”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 27 ·

Ten product approvals ($30B+ TAM)

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Expecting up to 10 product approvals in the next three years”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Ten product approvals ($30B+ TAM)

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Reflects updated timeline 20 2 Focus on 10 product approvals targeting”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 20 ·

Ten product approvals ($30B+ TAM)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“2Q 2025 Update| Looking Ahead 20 2 Focus on 10 product approvals targeting”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 20 ·

COVID franchise and mNEXSPIKE share

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Cumulative doses, in millions 40% Moderna market share in retail channel season to date”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 6 ·

COVID franchise and mNEXSPIKE share

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Approved by the FDA on May 31, 2025”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 13 ·

COVID franchise and mNEXSPIKE share

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“3Q 2025 Update|Commercial Overview & Pipeline Programs 2025/2026 COVID retail market share in line with expectations;”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 13 ·

COVID franchise and mNEXSPIKE share

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“4Q 2025 Update | Commercial Overview & Pipeline Programs 2026 growth driver: mNEXSPIKE 15”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 15 ·

COVID franchise and mNEXSPIKE share

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“mNEXSPIKE: approved in EU for individuals aged 12+”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 11 ·

COVID franchise and mNEXSPIKE share

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“BNT62b2 vs. matched unvaccinated cohort mNEXSPIKE’s momentum and real-world evidence 15 mNEXSPIKE (mRNA-1283)”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 15 ·

Government partnerships (UK, Canada, Australia)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Bringing manufacturing facilities online in UK, Canada and Australia in 2025 to execute against multi-year contracts”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 26 ·

Government partnerships (UK, Canada, Australia)

Q3 '25 · headline page

“First made-in-Canada mRNA vaccines delivered”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Government partnerships (UK, Canada, Australia)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“4Q 2025 Update | Commercial Overview & Pipeline Programs 2026 growth driver: Annualized impact from UK, Canada, Australia strategic partnerships 14”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 14 ·

Government partnerships (UK, Canada, Australia)

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Strong 1Q revenue with strategic partnerships driving 1H outlook”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 7 ·

Government partnerships (UK, Canada, Australia)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Strategic partnerships drove strong 1H performance”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 9 ·

Seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010

Q1 '25 · headline page

“ Flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) exceeded case accruals required for Phase 3 interim efficacy analysis”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Positive Phase 3 flu vaccine data”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010

Q3 '25 · headline page

“positive results from”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Received Refusal-to-File letter from U.S. FDA”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010

Q1 '26 · headline page

“August 5 PDUFA date in U.S.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Positive recommendation from U.S. VRBPAC; August 5”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Oncology (intismeran, mRNA-4359)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Initiated a Phase 3 study evaluating adjuvant INT”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results · p. 21 ·

Oncology (intismeran, mRNA-4359)

Q1 '25 · headline page

“ Expansion of oncology portfolio, including Checkpoint AIM-T”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Oncology (intismeran, mRNA-4359)

Q3 '25 · headline page

“presented Phase 1b data at ESMO”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Oncology (intismeran, mRNA-4359)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Multiple potential clinical data catalysts driven by late-stage oncology”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 20 ·

Oncology (intismeran, mRNA-4359)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Phase 3 Stage 1 NSCLC trial initiation”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Oncology (intismeran, mRNA-4359)

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Presented Phase 2 5-year update of intismeran autogene”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 5 ·

Cash breakeven in 2028

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Continue to target cash breakeven in 2028”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 21 ·

Cash breakeven in 2028

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Continue to target cash breakeven in 2028”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 21 ·

Cash breakeven in 2028

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Continue to target cash breakeven in 2028”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 9 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Costs
On the summary slide of all eight decks. The yardstick moved from GAAP expenses to non-GAAP cash costs; the yearly cut shrank from 35% (Q2 '25) to 10% (Q2 '26).
Ten approvals
"Over the next 3 years" dropped in Q1 '25; the target last shown Q2 '25, after CMV, one of the ten, was still due.
COVID
U.S. retail share charts in Q3 '24 and again from Q3 '25, for mNEXSPIKE alone from Q4 '25.
Partnerships
A bullet in Q3 '24; from Q4 '25 the named engine of 2026's growth, ~$0.2B of UK revenue in 1H '26.
Flu
On the highlights slide every deck from Q1 '25, through a U.S. refusal to file and a PDUFA date of 5 Aug '26.
Oncology
One pipeline slide in 2024, two oncology slides by Q1 '26; the Phase 3 melanoma readout stays "event-driven".
Breakeven
First shown Q1 '25, last shown Q3 '25, then absent from every deck.
New
Q3 '25: non-GAAP cash costs. Q1 '26: adjusted net loss and cash costs excluding the $0.9B Arbutus charge.
Quiet
mRESVIA sales given once ($10M, Q3 '24) and never again. The approvals count gone after Q2 '25.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers27%··18%50%·31%23%
Growth & sales40%12%17%·17%·23%23%
Pricing & margins7%12%17%18%33%29%·8%
Guidance & outlook27%41%17%9%50%43%·15%
Capacity & supply20%6%··50%··8%
Capital & financing13%···17%···
Competition20%6%17%9%····
Products & technology·12%·9%50%·23%·
Macro & regulation7%12%·18%·29%8%8%
Other33%47%50%64%33%14%54%54%
Questions1517611671313

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 20 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 2 · worsening

    A 170% bonus in a year revenue fell 40% and missed its target

    The pool was carried by cost cuts scored at maximum. CEO pay $19.9M for 2025. Votes against pay rose from 22.7% (2025) to 34.9% (2026). Underwater staff options were swapped in late '25.

  2. Tier 2 · live

    $1.3B more owed on the Arbutus patent deal if the appeal fails

    $950M paid by Jul '26; a further $1.3B falls due within 90 days if the Federal Circuit rejects the U.S.-government-doses defence. An RSV securities class action is pending, with derivative suits stayed behind it. Nothing accrued at Jun '26.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    Staggered board, removable only for cause; chair for 14 years

    Three classes with three-year terms; removal needs cause and two-thirds of the shares. Noubar Afeyan, whose Flagship founded Moderna, has chaired since 2012 and is counted independent. The board reaffirmed the structure in 2026.

  4. Tier 3 · worsening

    Shares +3.4% since end '24, plus a $3.0B convertible

    386M to 399M shares. The 0% notes of Sep '26 convert into 14.2M shares at $210.58, below today's price. A $1.5B secured Ares term loan ($0.6B drawn). Stock pay $483M in 2025, a quarter of revenue.

  5. Tier 3 · rising

    $81.6M of insider sales in 12 months, no purchases

    Hoge (President) $45.4M, $17.0M of it at $213-221 in Oct '26; Bancel (CEO) $28.7M in one day on options expiring five days later. $80.5M under pre-set plans.

Accounting rule changes 4 in 6 quarters

  1. Q4 '24Full-year guide moves from product sales (2024) to total revenue (2025)
  2. Q3 '25New non-GAAP cash costs measure, GAAP costs less stock-based compensation and depreciation and amortization
  3. Q4 '25Other revenue now includes stand-ready manufacturing revenue
  4. Q1 '26Adjusted net loss and adjusted cash costs exclude the $0.9B Arbutus litigation settlement

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Bancel (CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.5.2M—2.1%
Afeyan (chair)A board seat.32.1M—12.8%
Nader (pay committee chair)A board seat.55.2M—22.0%
HorningA board seat.—49.4M19.0%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.56.5M90.8M34.9%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct '25-Oct '26SoldNote
Hoge, President$45.4M479K shares, all planned
Bancel, CEO$28.7M499K shares on 5 Aug '26, planned
Mock, CFO$4.7M35K shares at $134.49, planned
Klinger, Chief Legal Officer$1.4M21K shares, planned
Afeyan, chair$1.1M33K shares, not marked as a plan