BLLNBillionToOne, Inc.

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

1. Tier 1 · live

   The company says its own controls do not work, on the line that is an estimate

   The first 10-K discloses material weaknesses — "we lack a sufficient complement of resources with the appropriate knowledge, experience, and training" and an inability to segregate duties in finance — and the Q2 10-Q concludes disclosure controls were "not effective" at 30 Jun '26. Over 90% of revenue comes from third-party payers and is an estimate of collections revised each quarter: $12.0m of H1 revenue was prior-period true-ups, and receivables went from $41.6m to $74.9m in six months with $10m of claims held.

2. Tier 2 · stable

   Two founders hold all the fifteen-vote stock and 63.3% of the votes

   Class B carries fifteen votes a share and the founders hold all of it: 31.1% of the votes for Atay, 32.2% for Tsao, 77.7% for all directors and officers. At the first annual meeting 4,552,650 Class B shares carried 68.3m of the 109.7m votes entitled, so 0.45% of votes withheld from the chief executive is the loudest a holder can be. The board is classified into three on top of it.

3. Tier 2 · stable

   Four of the five independent directors work for firms that own the stock

   Hummingbird (19.0% of Class A), Neotribe (10.5%), Adams Street (largest 13F holder) and Premji Invest each hold a seat, and Hummingbird's managing partner is the lead independent director. Only Anthony Pagano, Genmab's chief financial officer and audit chair, is not a holder's employee. There is no nominating committee at all — the proxy relies on a majority of the independent directors recommending nominees.

4. Tier 2 · live

   Every officer sold after the lock-up; nobody has bought

   The SEC insider data sets record 34 sales by 5 insiders over 2025q3–2026q2 worth $9.19m, 100% of them on pre-set 10b5-1 plans, against 11 "purchases" that are all directed-share buys at the $60.00 offering price. Carried to 25 Sep '26 the Form 4 sweep totals about $44m across six people. New plans were still being written in June. Short interest rose to 6.2% of the Class A stock.

5. Tier 3 · stable

   A bonus plan with no published measure, and stock pay at 77% of free cash flow

   The Annual Incentive Plan adopted on 4 Mar '26 pays on "performance goals … as determined by the administrator", in cash or fully vested stock, and names no metric. As an emerging growth company there is no compensation discussion and analysis and no say-on-pay vote. Share-based pay was $25.5m, 6.4% of revenue but 77.1% of free cash flow; the share count went from 45.80m to 47.19m in eight months.