The Ledger

NKENIKE, Inc.

Industry US consumer Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

Held at $37.30

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$37 → $37

One guided year on: held. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $37.30, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $36.80 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date, below today's $37.30. So the Companies page lists it held at today's price rather than falling.

Show the math

today's multiple of 27× adjusted earnings, held, on the FY2027 adjusted EPS guide of $1.15-1.35 times the diluted share count. No growth after FY2027: management has given no number for later years. Company value plus net cash, less debt, divided by a share count that grows with stock pay. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution. From Oct 2028 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $37 at 36 months.

0$10$20$30$40Today (Oct 2026): $37, the market price$37TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $37 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$3712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $37 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$3724 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $37 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$3736 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count grows about 0.6% a year as in the half to Sep '26: stock pay, no buybacks$37$371495M sh · held$371504M sh · held$371513M sh · held
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value today ($37 times 1485.3M Class A and B shares, plus debt, less cash and short-term investments) over the FY2027 adjusted net income the EPS guide implies: 27×. Held, so none of any rise would be a re-rating.
  2. The earnings. $1.15-1.35 of adjusted diluted EPS for FY2027, which leaves out about $0.15 of Pace restructuring. FY2026's $2.10 included about $0.52 from the expected tariff refund. Revenue is guided down by high single digits.
  3. The later years. Held at the FY2027 guide. Pace is to save about $2.5B through FY2031, mostly in FY2029-30, but management says part will be reinvested and puts about $1.0B of charges against it, and gives no profit figure for any year.
  4. The shares. No stock is sold and none is bought back: the $18B programme stopped near $12.1B. The count grows as it did in the half to 28 Sep 2026, about 0.6% a year from stock pay.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 releases

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Q3 FY25 revenue down low double digitsQ2 '25 call-9%, margin -330bpHeld
Q1 FY27 revenue down low-mid single digitsQ4 '26 call-4%, margin +60bpHeld
Greater China -20% in Q4 FY26Q3 '26 call-17% currency-neutralHeld
Wholesale growth in FY26Q1 '26 call+6%, $27.5BHeld
Margin up from Q2 FY27Q3 '26 calla quarter early, +60bpHeld
Q4 FY25 the low pointQ4 '25four flat quarters, then -4%Late
Clean marketplace by end 1H FY26Q4 '25 callNorth America and EMEA onlyLate
Win Now done by Dec '26Q3 '26 calldropped from the releaseOpen
Long-term guide at Investor DayQ3 '26 callNov '26Open
FY27 revenue down high single digitsQ1 '27not yet reportedOpen
FY27 adjusted EPS $1.15-1.35Q1 '27Q1 $0.48Open
Pace saves $2.5B by FY31Q1 '27begun; most in FY29-30Open
Only low single-digit decline to Q2 FY27Q3 '26 callcut a quarter laterMissed
$18B buyback by mid-2026Q2 '25$12.1B, stoppedMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, release by release

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26Q1
'27

Win NowOff page one Q4 '26

Sport OffensePage one since Q4 '26

SportOff page one Q4 '25

WholesaleOff page one Q1 '27

TariffsOff page one Q1 '27

ChinaNew Q1 '26 · Page one since Q1 '27

PaceNew Q3 '26 · Page one since Q4 '26

DividendFirst seen Q2 '25

on the headline page further in the release not in the release▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Win Now actions

Q3 '25 · headline page

“"The progress we made against the 'Win Now' strategic priorities we committed to 90 days ago reinforces my confidence that we are on the right path," said Elliott Hill, President and CEO, NIKE, Inc. "What's encouraging is NIKE made an impact this quarter leading with sport – through athlete storytelling, performance products and big sport moments."”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Win Now actions

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Moving forward, we expect our business to improve as a result of the progress we're making through our Win Now actions," said Elliott Hill, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. "As we enter a new fiscal year, we are turning the page and the next step is aligning our teams to lead with sport through what we are calling the sport offense.”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Win Now actions

Q1 '26 · headline page

““This quarter NIKE drove progress through our Win Now actions in our priority areas of North America, Wholesale, and Running,” said Elliott Hill, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. “While we’re getting wins under our belt, we still have work ahead to get all sports, geographies, and channels on a similar path as we manage a dynamic operating environment.”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Win Now actions

Q2 '26 · headline page

“We are making progress in the areas we prioritized first and remain confident in the actions we're taking to drive the long-term growth and profitability of our brands," said Elliott Hill, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. "Fiscal 26 continues to be a year of taking action through Win Now, including realigning our teams, strengthening partner relationships, rebalancing our portfolio, and winning on the ground.”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Win Now actions

Q3 '26 · headline page

“"We delivered third quarter results in line with our expectations, and our teams continue to execute with discipline," said Matthew Friend, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, NIKE, Inc. "Win Now actions will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year, and we remain confident in our ability to position the Company for profitable growth long-term."”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Sport Offense

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Moving forward, we expect our business to improve as a result of the progress we're making through our Win Now actions," said Elliott Hill, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. "As we enter a new fiscal year, we are turning the page and the next step is aligning our teams to lead with sport through what we are calling the sport offense.”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Sport Offense

Q1 '26 · headline page

“I’m confident that we have the right focus in Win Now and that our new alignment in the Sport Offense will be the key to maximizing NIKE, Inc.’s complete portfolio over the long-term.””

Deck NIKE Q1 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Sport Offense

Q2 '26 · headline page

“We're finding our rhythm in our new sport offense, and setting ourselves up for the next phase of athlete-centered innovation in an elevated and integrated marketplace."”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Sport Offense

Q4 '26 · headline page

“"In fiscal 2026, we took decisive actions to strengthen the foundation of NIKE, Inc. and reposition our business for long-term growth," said Elliott Hill, President and Chief Executive Officer, NIKE, Inc. "We made meaningful structural improvements to lay the groundwork for our Sport Offense across our team culture, innovative product, brand strength, and how we serve consumers in our countries and cities.”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Sport Offense

Q1 '27 · headline page

“Sport Offense continued to drive momentum across priority sports”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY27 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2027 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Sport back at the centre

Q2 '25 · headline page

“"After an energizing 60 days of being back with my NIKE teammates, our clear priority is to return sport to the center of everything we do," said Elliott Hill, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. "We're taking immediate action to reposition our business, so we can get back to driving long-term shareholder value.”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Sport back at the centre

Q3 '25 · headline page

“"The progress we made against the 'Win Now' strategic priorities we committed to 90 days ago reinforces my confidence that we are on the right path," said Elliott Hill, President and CEO, NIKE, Inc. "What's encouraging is NIKE made an impact this quarter leading with sport – through athlete storytelling, performance products and big sport moments."”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Wholesale and North America lead the recovery

Q1 '26 · headline page

““This quarter NIKE drove progress through our Win Now actions in our priority areas of North America, Wholesale, and Running,” said Elliott Hill, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc. “While we’re getting wins under our belt, we still have work ahead to get all sports, geographies, and channels on a similar path as we manage a dynamic operating environment.”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Wholesale and North America lead the recovery

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Wholesale revenues were $7.5 billion, up 8 percent on a reported and currency-neutral basis”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Wholesale and North America lead the recovery

Q3 '26 · headline page

“The pace of progress is different across the portfolio and the areas we prioritized first continue to drive momentum," said Elliott Hill, President and Chief Executive Officer, NIKE, Inc. "The work is not finished, but the direction is clear, our teams are moving with focus and urgency, and our foundation is getting even stronger to build the future of NIKE."”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Wholesale and North America lead the recovery

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Wholesale revenues for the fourth quarter were $6.6 billion, up 4 percent on a reported basis and up 1 percent on a currency-neutral basis”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Tariffs in gross margin

Q1 '26 · further in the release

“Gross margin decreased 320 basis points to 42.2 percent, primarily due to lower average selling price, reflecting higher discounts and channel mix, as well as higher tariffs in North America.”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Tariffs in gross margin

Q2 '26 · further in the release

“Gross margin decreased 300 basis points to 40.6 percent, primarily due to higher tariffs in North America.”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Tariffs in gross margin

Q3 '26 · further in the release

“Gross margin decreased 130 basis points to 40.2 percent, primarily due to higher tariffs in North America.”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Tariffs in gross margin

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Gross margin for the fourth quarter increased 890 basis points to 49.2 percent, including an approximately 900 basis point benefit due to the expected recovery of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act ("IEEPA") tariffs”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Greater China, Converse and Sportswear repositioning

Q1 '26 · further in the release

“◦ Revenues for the NIKE Brand were $11.4 billion, up 2 percent on a reported basis and flat on a currency-neutral basis, as currency-neutral growth in North America was offset by a decline in Greater China.”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Greater China, Converse and Sportswear repositioning

Q2 '26 · further in the release

“◦ NIKE Brand revenues were $12.1 billion, up 1 percent on a reported and currency-neutral basis, primarily due to growth in North America, partially offset by declines in Greater China and APLA.”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Greater China, Converse and Sportswear repositioning

Q3 '26 · further in the release

“◦ NIKE Brand revenues were $11.0 billion, up 1 percent on a reported basis and down 2 percent on a currency-neutral basis, primarily due to declines in EMEA and Greater China, partially offset by growth in North America.”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Greater China, Converse and Sportswear repositioning

Q4 '26 · further in the release

“◦ Revenues for the NIKE Brand were $10.7 billion, flat on a reported basis and down 3 percent on a currency-neutral basis, primarily due to declines in Greater China and EMEA, partially offset by growth in North America.”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Greater China, Converse and Sportswear repositioning

Q1 '27 · headline page

“Taking actions to reposition NIKE Sportswear, Jordan Brand, and Greater China”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY27 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2027 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Cost realignment and Pace

Q3 '26 · further in the release

“◦ Operating overhead expense was $2.9 billion, up 3 percent, due to employee severance costs and unfavorable changes in foreign currency exchange rates, partially offset by lower other administrative costs.”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Cost realignment and Pace

Q4 '26 · headline page

“"We delivered fourth quarter results in line with our expectations, demonstrating financial discipline in an increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged," said Matthew Friend, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, NIKE, Inc. "We are improving the health of our business, managing our product portfolio and investing in marketplace elevation, while adjusting our…”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Cost realignment and Pace

Q1 '27 · headline page

“Announces Pace, an operating model transformation to scale the success of the Sport Offense”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY27 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2027 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Dividend record

Q2 '25 · further in the release

“NIKE continues to have a strong track record of consistently increasing returns to shareholders, including 23 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts.”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Dividend record

Q3 '25 · further in the release

“NIKE continues to have a strong track record of consistently increasing returns to shareholders, including 23 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts.”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2025 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

Dividend record

Q4 '25 · further in the release

“NIKE continues to have a strong track record of consistently increasing returns to shareholders, including 23 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts.”

Deck NIKE Q4 FY25 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · AND FULL YEAR RESULTS ·

Dividend record

Q1 '26 · further in the release

“NIKE has a strong track record of returns to shareholders, including 23 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts.”

Deck NIKE Q1 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS ·

Dividend record

Q2 '26 · further in the release

“NIKE has a strong track record of returns to shareholders, including 24 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts.”

Deck NIKE Q2 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 SECOND QUARTER RESULTS ·

Dividend record

Q3 '26 · further in the release

“NIKE has a strong track record of returns to shareholders, including 24 consecutive years of increasing dividend payouts.”

Deck NIKE Q3 FY26 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · NIKE, INC. REPORTS FISCAL 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Win Now
Named in the CEO's quote from Q3 FY25 to Q3 FY26; absent from Q4 FY26, replaced by Pace in Q1 FY27.
Sport Offense
Introduced in Q4 FY25 as the realignment by sport; the first headline bullet of Q1 FY27.
Sport
Hill's opening line in his first two releases, Q2 and Q3 FY25, then folded into the Sport Offense.
Wholesale
Listed ahead of NIKE Direct from Q2 FY26; Q1 FY27 drops both from the headline.
Tariffs
The named cause of the margin fall Q1-Q3 FY26; in Q4 FY26 a $986M expected refund added about 900bp.
China
A line in the segment text from Q1 FY26; a headline action in Q1 FY27, with Sportswear and Jordan.
Pace
Severance first in Q3 FY26; Pace, $2.5B of savings for about $1.0B of charges, in Q1 FY27.
Dividend
'23 consecutive years', then 24, in every release to Q3 FY26; gone from Q4 FY26.
New
Q1 FY27: the first Outlook section, adjusted diluted EPS excluding restructuring, a channel revenue table.
Quiet
Buyback progress on the $18B programme last given Q1 FY26 ($12.1B); dividends only since.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q2 25 – Q1 27

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 26Q1 27
Demand & customers50%50%25%33%33%14%22%·
Growth & sales75%33%75%33%100%57%33%50%
Pricing & margins75%33%38%67%50%29%22%38%
Guidance & outlook25%33%50%17%33%57%33%25%
Capacity & supply38%17%·17%··11%·
Capital & financing···17%··11%12%
Competition··12%·17%···
Products & technology25%33%··17%··25%
Macro & regulation12%17%25%17%50%43%11%50%
Other·····43%22%25%
Questions86866798

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 20 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 2 · stable

    Class A, 19% of the shares, elects three-quarters of the board

    Swoosh, LLC holds 78.8% of Class A. Every Class A nominee got the same votes with none withheld in 2025 and 2026; the board itself added Alexandre Arnault in Sep '26.

  2. Tier 2 · live

    New CFO since Aug '26, also acting as controller

    Matthew Friend out as CFO, chief accounting officer Johanna Nielsen gone 4 Sep '26; Dave Denton is principal accounting officer until a controller is hired, during $1.0B of Pace charges.

  3. Tier 2 · worsening

    32% against say-on-pay, after $36.3M to the CEO

    Up from 6.4% in 2025. Retention grants of $15M target to Hill and $4M to each other named officer, half vesting on service alone; 38.5% withheld on Duckett.

  4. Tier 3 · stopped

    $12.1B of buybacks at $97.57 a share

    124.4M shares, worth about $4.4B at $35.33. Paused; re-approved in Jun '26 with no expiry and no increase.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    Insiders' family members on the payroll

    Philip Knight about $221K as Chairman Emeritus; Mark Parker's son and sister about $146K and $175K.

Accounting rule changes 2 in 2 quarters

  1. Q1 '27Adjusted Diluted EPS introduced, excluding restructuring and severance charges
  2. Q4 '26Expected IEEPA tariff refund of $986M booked in gross margin (about 900bp)

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Say-on-payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.72.9M349.5M32.2%
Duckett (Class B slate in 2026)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.0310.5M38.5%
Gil (Class B slate)A board seat.25.5M52.1M6.5%
Swan (Class B slate)A board seat.15.8M41.1M5.1%
Ratify PwCThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.72.9M58.9M4.8%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct '25-Oct '26SoldNote
Parker, executive chairman$5.6M86,078 shares, planned
McCartney, innovation and product chief$0.9Mplanned
Leinwand, chief legal officer$0.7Mplanned
Montagne, president of NIKE$0.2Mnot marked as a plan
Alagirisamy, chief operating officer$0.2Mplanned