The Ledger

OKLOOklo Inc.

Industry Power nuclear Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2029

Held at $26.35

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$26 → $26

One guided year on: held. 2028 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $26.35, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $13.19 at the end of 2029, 38 months from the price date, below today's $26.35. So the Companies page lists it held at today's price rather than falling.

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Value holds today's enterprise value per megawatt management has dated, the 75 MWe of Aurora-INL due to start up in 2028, and adds the first 150 MW phase of the Meta-backed Aurora-Ohio campus, targeted around 2030, at the same value per megawatt. Oklo guides no revenue, power price or margin, so nothing else moves the value. The share count grows at the pace of the first half of 2026, when stock sold through the ATMs added 15% in six months. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2028, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution. From Oct 2029 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $13 at 36 months.

0$10$20$30Today (Oct 2026): $26, the market price$26TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $26 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$2612 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $26 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$2624 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $26 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$2636 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares +33% a year as in H1 '26, almost all of it ATM stock; no debt$26$26265M sh · held$26352M sh · held$26468M sh · held
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The plant. Aurora-INL, 75 MWe, the only powerhouse under construction. DOE approved its preliminary safety analysis in Q2 '26 and the CFO kept the 2028 start-up on the Q2 '26 call. The first operations date given, late 2027 or early 2028, left the decks after Q2 '25.
  2. What comes next. Aurora-Ohio, a 1.2 GW campus backed by a Meta fuel prepayment, whose first 150 MW phase is targeted around 2030 (Q4 '25 deck). The low end spreads it over 2029-31; the high end has it in by 2030 and keeps that pace into 2031. The rest of the campus, Eielson (5 MWe) and the 14 GW pipeline withdrawn after Q2 '25 have no date and are not counted.
  3. What is missing. No power price, margin or contracted revenue appears in any deck or call, and there is no binding power purchase agreement. So the value per megawatt is today's, held: it says what the market already pays for a dated megawatt, not what a plant will earn.
  4. Shares. 185.1m at 30 Jun '26, from 160.5m at 31 Dec '25: 23.1m of the new shares were sold through two ATMs at average net prices of $96.95 and $63.51. The May programme was used up by 10 Sep (17.97m shares, about $1.0bn) and a new $1bn one opened the next day. 6.5m options at $2.11 and 2.9m unvested units are left out.
  5. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Net debt today is -$3.0B, which is net cash in Treasuries and money funds, against 186.0M shares. The cash is held where it is although the FY2026 guide spends $520-650m of it this year, cash use of $120-150m and capex of $400-500m; spending it would lower every figure here.
  6. Held. Every bar is held at today's price. To the end of 2028, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12- and 24-month figures are held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution. From October 2029 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the 36-month figure is held too; the arithmetic alone gives $13 at 36 months.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The dates slip and the cost guides only go up. Ground was broken on time; every licensing date was replaced by a new route, and isotope revenue has moved three times.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
INL site work from Q3 '25Q2 '25ground broken Sep '25Held
Blasting from mid-Nov '25Q3 '25under way by Q4 '25Held
2024 cash use $35-45M, loss $40-50MQ3 '24cash $38.4M; loss $52.8MLate
Groves critical by 4 Jul '26Q3 '255 Aug '26, a month lateLate
First NRC licence application, more in 2025Q3 '24none filed; route moved to DOEDropped
INL running late '27 or early '28Q1 '25date dropped; the CFO now says 2028Dropped
14 GW pipeline, 12 GW from SwitchQ4 '24figure withdrawn after Q2 '25Dropped
Ohio's first 150 MW around 2030Q4 '25open; not repeated in 2026 decksOpen
Tennessee recycling, early 2030sQ3 '25open; still pre-applicationOpen
Centrus fuel from 2029Q2 '26open; a letter of intentOpen
FY25 cash use $65-80MQ1 '25$82.2MMissed
INL licence Phase I, early Q4 '25Q2 '25replaced by DOE authorizationMissed
Isotope revenue by Q1 '26Q4 '24moved three times; none yetMissed
Isotope reactor licence filed in 2025Q1 '25not filed; gone from the decksMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

PolicyPage one since Q2 '26

PipelineOff page one Q2 '26

NRC licenceFirst seen Q3 '24

DOE routeOff page one Q2 '26

Aurora-INLOff page one Q2 '26

FuelFirst seen Q3 '24

IsotopesOff page one Q2 '26

ModelOff page one Q4 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Policy tailwinds

Q3 '24 · headline page

“The nuclear sector is experiencing unprecedented tailwinds driven largely by A.I. power needs 4”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 4 ·

Policy tailwinds

Q4 '24 · headline page

“The new administration is making nuclear power a priority for American energy abundance 4”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 4 ·

Policy tailwinds

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Growing political support for nuclear deployment”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Policy tailwinds

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Executive Orders on nuclear energy 3”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Policy tailwinds

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“2024 & 2025 marked a crucial shift in U.S. nuclear policy 4”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 4 ·

Policy tailwinds

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“U.S. nuclear tailwinds are shifting from policy support to execution”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 4 ·

Policy tailwinds

Q2 '26 · headline page

“U.S. policy is expanding execution capabilities across the nuclear value chain.”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Customer pipeline in megawatts

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Oklo customer pipeline & PPA strategy 16”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 16 ·

Customer pipeline in megawatts

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Oklo’s customer pipeline has grown significantly in the last 18 months primarily due to A.I. data center demand 22”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 22 ·

Customer pipeline in megawatts

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo's scalable technology is well suited to customers across a broad range of segments, including data centers, demonstrated by a 14 GW demand pipeline.”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 21 ·

Customer pipeline in megawatts

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Scalable product offering validated by a 14 GW pipeline, with customers across data center, utility, oil and gas, and industrial sectors”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 23 ·

Customer pipeline in megawatts

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Scalable product offering validated by a robust pipeline, with customers across data center, utility, oil and gas, and industrial sectors”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 19 ·

Customer pipeline in megawatts

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Built customer pipeline across data centers, industrials, energy, and government customers”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

NRC combined licence (COLA) strategy

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Plan to submit first 15MW combined license application”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 10 ·

NRC combined licence (COLA) strategy

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“INL Powerhouse: NRC licensing developments 11”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 11 ·

NRC combined licence (COLA) strategy

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo initiated Phase 1 of its pre-application readiness assessment for the Aurora-INL Powerhouse COLA with the NRC.”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 11 ·

NRC combined licence (COLA) strategy

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Targeting submission for Phase I of Aurora-INL's COLA early Q4 2025”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 11 ·

NRC combined licence (COLA) strategy

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“NRC COLA timeline update”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 4 ·

DOE authorization and Reactor Pilot Program

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo is shifting Aurora-INL to pursue DOE authorization to accelerate its timeline to initial operations.”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 6 ·

DOE authorization and Reactor Pilot Program

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo is pursuing DOE authorization for initial assets, to inform NRC licensing for subsequent assets”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 25 ·

DOE authorization and Reactor Pilot Program

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Advanced site work, procurement, and DOE authorization for Aurora-INL”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

DOE authorization and Reactor Pilot Program

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Aurora-INL PDSA approval advances final design and construction.”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 14 ·

Aurora-INL build

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Progress on Oklo’s path to its first”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 10 ·

Aurora-INL build

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Kiewit selected as lead constructor for the Aurora-INL”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 17 ·

Aurora-INL build

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo breaks ground on the Aurora-INL”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 8 ·

Aurora-INL build

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Broke ground on the Aurora Powerhouse at INL”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Aurora-INL build

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Broke ground on the first Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Aurora-INL build

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Construction, procurement, and system integration advancing”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 14 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Oklo received DOE approval for Aurora fuel fabrication conceptual safety design report 14”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 14 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo has one of the most comprehensive fuel strategy of any advanced nuclear company”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 12 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Understanding HALEU supply, cost, and market dynamics 13”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 13 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo's fuel strategy solving near-, mid-, and long-term demand 12”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 12 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo’s multi-source fuel strategy”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 17 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“A3F — Advancing fuel fabrication readiness 11”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 11 ·

Fuel strategy and HALEU supply

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Oklo’s fuel strategy reduces reliance on any single pathway.”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 18 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Oklo signs term sheet to acquire Atomic Alchemy 17”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 17 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Completion of Atomic Alchemy acquisition enhances Oklo’s industry leading nuclear technology platform 24”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 24 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Atomic Alchemy's two project strategy for entering the radioisotope market”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 17 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Atomic Alchemy targets first operations by July 2026 10”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 10 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Completed the acquisition of Atomic Alchemy and is significantly through construction at our Groves facility in Texas, our first radioisotope test reactor • Completed fast-spectrum plutonium criticality experiments, supporting validation of plutonium fuel use in Oklo reactors”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Acquired Atomic Alchemy and built the Groves test reactor facility in 229 days”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Isotopes (Atomic Alchemy, Groves)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Groves achieved first criticality in under one year.”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 10 ·

Business model framing

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Attractive Build, Own, Operate Business Model”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Presentation · p. 7 ·

Business model framing

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo’s three competitive advantages will enable the deployment of powerhouses at scale”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 9 ·

Business model framing

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Oklo’s competitive advantages should enable the deployment of powerhouses at scale”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 3 ·

Business model framing

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Oklo’s three integrated business units create a scalable, vertically integrated nuclear platform 5”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Presentation · p. 5 ·

Business model framing

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Oklo is building an integrated platform where Power is the anchor, Fuel is the enabler, and Isotopes expand high-value product and service opportunities 6”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 6 ·

Business model framing

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Oklo’s three business lines reinforce delivery of one scalable, vertically integrated nuclear platform.”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Presentation · p. 4 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Policy
The opening slide in five of eight decks: AI power demand in 2024, executive orders in 2025, DOE programmes in 2026.
Pipeline
0.7, 2.1, then 14 GW after the Switch agreement; from Q3 '25 a robust pipeline with no number, and no binding contract in any deck.
NRC licence
The licence-application plan led the 2024 decks; it is last mentioned in Q3 '25, when Aurora-INL moved to DOE authorization.
DOE route
New in Q3 '25 with the Reactor Pilot Program; by Q2 '26 the preliminary safety analysis is approved, with no date on the next steps.
Aurora-INL
Kiewit in Q2 '25, groundbreaking in Q3 '25, on the highlights page in Q4 '25 and Q1 '26; never a cost.
Fuel
In seven of eight decks: the 5 t DOE award first, then plutonium, the Tennessee recycling centre and the Centrus letter of intent.
Isotopes
The commercial isotope reactor led until Q3 '25; from Q4 '25 the Groves test reactor carries the story, and its criticality leads Q2 '26.
Model
Build, own, operate (selling power, not plants) through Q3 '25; a Power, Fuel and Isotopes platform from Q4 '25.
New
Q1 '26: capex and investing cash flow ($126.9M in H1 '26). Q2 '26: Groves first criticality and the Centrus HALEU letter of intent.
Quiet
The 14 GW pipeline after Q2 '25, the full-year burn outlook and the progress checklist after Q3 '25, and the late-2027 operations date after Q2 '25.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 3

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers23%36%12%50%17%21%·16%
Growth & sales5%9%4%8%8%··11%
Pricing & margins9%·8%····11%
Guidance & outlook··4%·8%29%·5%
Capacity & supply9%45%38%50%67%29%57%26%
Capital & financing9%9%12%8%8%29%14%21%
Competition9%······5%
Products & technology5%···8%7%14%21%
Macro & regulation·9%12%17%8%14%14%11%
Other59%36%50%33%25%21%29%32%
Questions221124121214719
How much the CEO talked93%96%92%97%92%87%89%81%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    The share count grew 15% in one half, and the ATMs keep being refilled

    160.5m shares at 31 Dec '25, 185.1m at 30 Jun '26. A $1.5bn programme finished in Q1 '26 at $96.95 net a share; a $1bn one sold out by 10 Sep at falling prices; a new $1bn one opened the next day. The equity plan adds 5% of the shares to its pool every January to 2034.

  2. Tier 2 · worsening

    The founders sold $222.6m in a year; no insider bought

    The DeWittes sold 3.02m shares from Nov '25 to Sep '26, $190.2m of it under plans and $69.2m on 22 Dec '25 alone. The CFO sold $21.4m. On 13 Mar '26 the founders and the CFO sold $11.4m at $60.00, off-plan, four days before the FY2025 results.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    The CEO is chairman and his wife is COO, behind a staggered board

    Chairman since Altman left in April 2025. Eight of eleven directors are independent and a lead independent director was named in April 2026, with four nuclear and industry directors; terms are three years in three classes, elected by plurality.

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    Pay is time-vested and discretionary, and holders get no vote on it

    CEO $7.04m for 2025, CFO $5.87m; every executive award vests on service alone and bonuses are at the board's discretion. As an emerging growth company Oklo holds no say-on-pay vote.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    A director's firm on a $1m-a-year retainer; the 2024 weakness is fixed

    Michael Klein's firm advises Oklo for $250,000 a quarter (12.2% withheld from him in 2025). A 2024 control weakness was remediated in 2025; there is no auditor opinion on controls while Oklo is an emerging growth company.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Kinzley (audit chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.—11.8M16.7%
Klein (director, paid adviser)A board seat.5.4M——
Caroline DeWitte (COO)A board seat.—0.3M0.5%
Deloitte (auditor)The auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.0.4M0.4M0.3%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct '25-Sep '26SoldNote
The DeWittes, founders (joint)$222.6M3.02m shares; $69.2m on 22 Dec '25
Bealmear, CFO$21.4Mevery month; $4.3m off-plan on 13 Mar '26
Goodwin, chief legal officer$3.6Mseven sales, none under a plan
All insiders$249.3Mten sellers, 80% under plans, not one purchase