NBISNebius Group N.V.
Industry AI datacenter Updated 23 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$159 → $307
What the podcasts say
0 bullish · 1 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 showWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bearish
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 8 lettersEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
Money promises: hit. Power promises: quietly deleted.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARR ≥ $220M by Mar '25 | Q4 '24 | $249M | Held |
| ARR $750M–1B by Dec '25 | Q4 '24 | $1.25B | Held |
| ARR raised to $900M–1.1B | Q2 '25 | $1.25B | Held |
| Adj. EBITDA positive H2 '25 | Q1 '25 | +$15.0M in Q4 | Held |
| >1 GW contracted by end '26 | Q2 '25 | 3.5 GW by May | Held |
| Blackwell Ultra live in the UK, Q4 '25 | Q2 '25 | Nov '25 | Held |
| Meta capacity in 3 months | Q3 '25 | on time | Held |
| Robotaxi on Uber, Dallas '25 | Q1 '25 | Dec '25 | Held |
| Kansas City live end Q1 '25 | Q4 '24 | April | Late |
| 22,000 Blackwell GPUs in '25 | Q4 '24 | never mentioned again | Dropped |
| Finland 75 MW by end '25 | Q2 '25 | never reported | Dropped |
| 220 MW connected by end '25 | Q2 '25 | never reported | Dropped |
| 800 MW–1 GW connected in '26 | Q3 '25 | dropped from the Q2 '26 letter | Dropped |
| ARR $7–9B by Dec '26 | Q3 '25 | $3.0B in June | Open |
| 2026 revenue $3.0–3.4B | Q1 '26 | $981M in H1 | Open |
| 20–30% EBIT margin, mid-term | Q1 '25 | no adj. EBIT figure reported | Open |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, letter by letterThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
ARROff page one Q2 '26
PowerPage one since Q2 '25
Big dealsNew Q3 '25 · Page one since Q1 '26
MarginPage one since Q2 '25
FundingNew Q4 '24 · Page one since Q3 '25
SoftwarePage one since Q3 '25
Side betsPage one since Q2 '25
Deal economicsNew Q1 '26 · Page one since Q2 '26
on the headline page further in the letter not in the letter▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
ARR as the headline number
“Nebius’ cloud revenue surged 2.7 times QoQ (almost 8 times YoY against the low base), with annualized run-rate (ARR)(1) surpassing USD 120 million as of September 2024.”
Deck Nebius Group announces third quarter 2024 financial results (release; no letter published) · p. 2 ·
ARR as the headline number
“Based on contracts already in place, March ARR will be at least $220 million, and we have additional potential deals in the pipeline.”
Deck Nebius Group announces fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results (release; no letter published) · p. 1 ·
ARR as the headline number
“Annualized run-rate revenue as of the end of March 31 for core infrastructure”
Deck Nebius Group Letter to shareholders Q1 2025 · p. 2 ·
ARR as the headline number
“Forecasted ARR 1 for core business increased”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2025 · p. 2 ·
ARR as the headline number
“$4.3 billion expected annualized run-rate revenue* at year-end 2026”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 2 ·
ARR as the headline number
“YE’26 ARR guidance up ~7x YoY Raising capacity guidance for YE’26YE’25 ARR well above guidance 2026 contracted power guidance”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 2 ·
ARR as the headline number
“On track to achieve $3.0B–$3.4B revenue in 2026 and $7B–$9B ARR”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
ARR as the headline number
“Q2 group revenue of $582.3 million, was up 454% year-over-year. Nebius AI cloud revenue grew 514% year-over-year to $575 million, ARR reached $3.0 billion.”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 3 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“Shortly afterwards, Nebius announced a major expansion of its data center in Finland to triple capacity to 75 MW by the end of 2025 or early 2026.”
Deck Nebius Group announces third quarter 2024 financial results (release; no letter published) · p. 2 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“We expect that our global data center footprint will amount to approximately 100 MW of contracted capacity by the end of the year, and we plan to significantly grow our capac-ity in 2026.”
Deck Nebius Group Letter to shareholders Q1 2025 · p. 4 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“Capacity expansion 220 MW”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2025 · p. 2 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“Significantly raised capacity guidanceStrong momentum into 2026”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 2 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“YE’26 ARR guidance up ~7x YoY Raising capacity guidance for YE’26YE’25 ARR well above guidance 2026 contracted power guidance”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 2 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“Foundational partnershipsRaising capacity guidance for YE’26 2026 contracted power guidance”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
Power capacity in MW and GW
“Capacity footprint Raising capacity guidance for YE’26”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
Hyperscaler and landmark contracts
“AI infrastructure win, with Microsoft , valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion. We are fully on track with the execu -tion of this contract and expect revenue from this deal to start ramping up throughout 2026.”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 3 ·
Hyperscaler and landmark contracts
“We delivered the first tranche of capacity to Microsoft on time in November 2025, and are well on track to deliver the remain-ing capacity on schedule.”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 4 ·
Hyperscaler and landmark contracts
“Largest deal in our history”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
Hyperscaler and landmark contracts
“4 large deals >$1B average deal size across the four deals”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
Adjusted EBITDA margin of the core business
“Positive adjusted EBITDA”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2025 · p. 2 ·
Adjusted EBITDA margin of the core business
“Sold out of all available capacity 19% adjusted”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 2 ·
Adjusted EBITDA margin of the core business
“Core AI infrastructure business 24% adj. EBITDA margin in Q4 10% 19% 24%”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 2 ·
Adjusted EBITDA margin of the core business
“~40% Adj. EBITDA margin in 2026 2026 Guidance update”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
Adjusted EBITDA margin of the core business
“Nebius AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin 50%”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
Financing and capital raised
“Nebius Group raised $700 million in an over-subscribed funding round announced in early December. Total cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, stood at $2,449.6 million on a consolidated basis.”
Deck Nebius Group announces fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results (release; no letter published) · p. 2 ·
Financing and capital raised
“Looking ahead, we plan to fund our growth in part by tapping into our non-core busi-nesses and equity stakes. We are not aware of any other company in our sector that can raise potentially billions of dollars in this way.”
Deck Nebius Group Letter to shareholders Q1 2025 · p. 3 ·
Financing and capital raised
“To date, we have secured more than $4 billion in cap-ital.”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2025 · p. 4 ·
Financing and capital raised
“Effective strategy, strong demand Group revenue growth Funding secured”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 2 ·
Financing and capital raised
“Strong cash position at YE’25 including $834M in positive operating cash flow in Q4”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 2 ·
Financing and capital raised
“$6.3B capital secured”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
Financing and capital raised
“First asset-backed financing at attractive terms (SOFR + 2.50%)”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
Software and inference platform
“o Introduced Nebius AI Studio, a high-performance, cost-efficient self-service inference platform for foundation model users and application developers, offering a wide range of state-of-the-art open-source models, including Llama, Mistral and more.”
Deck Nebius Group announces third quarter 2024 financial results (release; no letter published) · p. 2 ·
Software and inference platform
“AI Studio continues to gain traction.”
Deck Nebius Group Letter to shareholders Q1 2025 · p. 6 ·
Software and inference platform
“Launch of production-scale inference platform bringing together inference, post-training and fine-grained access management with S3.”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 2 ·
Software and inference platform
“Production-scale inference and post-training”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 2 ·
Software and inference platform
“Eigen AI: Inference at scale”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
Software and inference platform
“Token Factory production inference workloads increased >3x in Q2”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“In Q3 2024, Toloka was the second largest contributor to the Group’s total revenue.”
Deck Nebius Group announces third quarter 2024 financial results (release; no letter published) · p. 2 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“The value of our minority stake in ClickHouse is substantial, and we believe it is con-tinuing to grow.”
Deck Nebius Group Letter to shareholders Q1 2025 · p. 3 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“Reported valuation of $6bn in latest funding round”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2025 · p. 2 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“Reported valuation of $6.35bn in May 2025 funding round.”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q3 2025 · p. 2 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“Reported valuation of $15B in January 2026 funding round”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q4 2025 · p. 2 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“More than 2x size of autonomous fleet YTD”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 2 ·
Side businesses and equity stakes
“Surpassed 60,000 commercial rides on Uber platform”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
Deal economics per megawatt
“Pricing continued to rise for new generation GPUs, with older gen-eration chips also seeing strong pricing support;”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q1 2026 · p. 6 ·
Deal economics per megawatt
“ACV per MW is stepping up”
Deck Nebius Letter to shareholders Q2 2026 · p. 2 ·
What they keep talking about · 9
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- ARR
- On page one of every letter until Q2 '26, whose headline page has revenue, margin and deal economics but no ARR.
- Power
- On the headline page from Q2 '25. Contracted MW, then connected, then active; by Q2 '26 only contracted power gets a number. Actual connected MW is never reported; active power once (~170 MW, Q4 '25).
- Big deals
- Absent until Microsoft (Sep '25, $17.4–19.4B); Meta ~$3B (Nov '25). From Q2 '26 the landmark deals are AI labs and trading firms, not hyperscalers.
- Margin
- Core adjusted EBITDA margin on the headline page from Q2 '25: “positive”, then 19%, 24%, 45%, 49.7%.
- Funding
- Selling side-business stakes (Q1 '25), then converts, NVIDIA equity, the ATM (first used Q2 '26) and customer prepayments.
- Software
- AI Studio renamed Token Factory (Q3 '25); grows by acquisition from Q4 '25 (Tavily, Eigen AI, Clarifai). No software revenue disclosed, ever.
- Side bets
- Avride (60,000+ robotaxi rides, 200+ AV-capable vehicles by Q2 '26), TripleTen and the ClickHouse stake keep a corner of every headline page.
- New
- Q2 '26: ACV per MW, payback period, prepayment share. No earlier letter gave pricing or unit economics.
- Quiet
- Core AI cloud revenue in dollars only from Q4 '25 (before: “two-thirds”, “~90%”). Managed-customer count last given Q3 '24 (“over 40”).
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 14
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 2026 letter · 6-K 12 Aug 2026
- Q2 2026 release · 6-K 12 Aug 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 6-K 13 May 2026
- Q1 2026 letter · 6-K 13 May 2026
- Q4 2025 letter · 6-K 12 Feb 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 6-K 12 Feb 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 6-K 12 Nov 2025
- Q3 2025 letter · 6-K 12 Nov 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 6-K 7 Aug 2025
- Q2 2025 letter · 6-K 7 Aug 2025
- Q1 2025 letter · 6-K 20 May 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 6-K 30 Apr 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 6-K 20 Feb 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 6-K 31 Oct 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | · | 50% | 21% | 29% | 50% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| Growth & sales | 100% | 50% | 29% | 21% | 23% | 8% | 21% | 21% |
| Pricing & margins | · | 20% | 21% | 12% | · | 8% | 29% | 43% |
| Guidance & outlook | · | 50% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 54% | 21% | 7% |
| Capacity & supply | 100% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 42% | 38% | 36% | 64% |
| Capital & financing | 100% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 29% | 14% |
| Competition | · | 10% | 7% | 8% | · | · | 7% | · |
| Products & technology | · | 20% | 14% | 21% | 19% | 23% | 29% | 7% |
| Macro & regulation | · | 10% | 7% | 4% | · | · | · | · |
| Other | · | 10% | 21% | 21% | 12% | · | · | · |
| Questions | 1 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 26 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| How much the CEO talked | 31% | 26% | 15% | 12% | 24% | 22% | 0% | 17% |
How these calls run. On the Q4 24, Q1 25, Q2 25, Q3 25, Q4 25, Q1 26, Q2 26 calls, investors send questions in advance and investor relations reads them out, sometimes rephrased, and picks who answers. No analyst is heard live and nobody gets a follow-up, so this table shows the questions the company chose to read.
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 29 Sep 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
Controls ruled ineffective, two years running
Adverse opinions on internal control 30 Apr '25 and 30 Apr '26. Open weaknesses: depreciation start dates on fixed assets, and TripleTen revenue (~10% of sales). CFO changed Jun '25, auditor Reanda dismissed Feb '26 (Deloitte appointed at the Aug '26 AGM), general counsel changed Jul '26. No reason given for either exit.
Tier 2 · worsening
One family trust: 52% of the votes on 11% of the shares
LASTAR Trust, 28.66M Class B shares at 10 votes. Nasdaq controlled company; the CEO chairs the nominating committee. No Class B sunset found. Votes against the CEO: 0.9M → 21.7M.
Tier 2 · worsening
$234M sold, $0 bought, in 12 months
33 sales by 8 insiders, Jul '25–Jun '26 (SEC insider data); about half under pre-set 10b5-1 plans. Two of three audit committee members are selling while the adverse opinion stands.
Tier 2 · worsening
Shares +8.2% in four months, with more authorised
220.4M → 238.4M Class A. Plus 21.1M NVIDIA warrant shares (paid ~$95) and up to ~66M from converts. The AGM renewed five-year authority to issue another 20% without pre-emption rights.
Tier 2 · stable
Pay per person isn't disclosed
Foreign private issuer, so no proxy. Three executives hold up to 2M options each at $100, time-vesting, no performance condition: $797M at $232.78 if all were exercised. The CEO declined his.
Accounting rule changes 5 in 5 quarters
- Q2 '25Toloka moved to discontinued operations; earlier periods restated
- Q1 '26Servers and network gear depreciated over five years instead of four
- Q1 '26Adjusted EBITDA adds back all stock-based pay, not only "certain" SBC
- Q1 '26ARR counts Nebius AI cloud revenue only
- Q2 '26Adjusted EBITDA also excludes acquisition and deal costs
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volozh (CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 0.9M | 21.7M | 5.4% |
| Boynton (chair)A board seat. | 19.0M | 27.8M | 7.0% |
| Ryan (audit chair)A board seat. | 14.4M | 20.2M | 5.1% |
| Issue 20% more stockPermission to create more shares. The company may then sell new shares later, for deals or to raise cash. New shares dilute the existing ones, so each shareholder owns a smaller share of the company. A no says shareholders want that door kept narrower. | 14.8M | 23.7M | 5.9% |
| Drop pre-emption rightsFirst refusal on new shares. Pre-emption rights let existing shareholders buy any new shares first, so their stake cannot be shrunk without their say. Dropping them lets the company sell new shares to anyone. A no keeps that protection. | 20.7M | 29.1M | 7.3% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Form 4s, Mar–Sep 2026 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Korolenko, infrastructure chief | $115.7M | 500K shares on 13 May after exercising $100 options |
| Volozh, CEO | $14.4M | sell-to-cover only |
| Ryan, audit chair | $13.3M | plan set two days after Q1 results |
| Boroditsky, CRO | $11.7M | no Class A shares left |
| Boynton, chair | $5.6M | family trust, monthly lots |