IRENIREN Limited
Industry Bitcoin miner AI pivot Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$24.91 → $51.71
What the podcasts say
0 bullish · 1 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 showWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bearish
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 EH/s by mid-2025 | Q2 '25 | 50 EH/s installed | Held |
| Sweetwater 1 substation, Apr '26 | Q1 '25 | on schedule, 15 months out | Held |
| ~$2.5bn of Microsoft GPU financing | Q1 '26 | $3.6bn at ~6% | Held |
| Funding need under $250m in 2025 | Q3 '25 | covered, and more | Held |
| Horizon 1 delivered Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | accepted Aug '26 | Late |
| AI Cloud $200-250m run rate by Dec '25 | Q4 '25 | ~$69m; passed two quarters late | Late |
| 23k Prince George GPUs by Q1 '26 | Q1 '26 | commissioned in August | Late |
| Horizon capex $6-7m per IT MW | Q3 '25 | withdrawn, never replaced | Dropped |
| Microsoft's 200 MW in phases through 2026 | Q1 '26 | Horizon 2-4 due Q4 '26 | Open |
| Sweetwater 2 energised late 2027 | Q4 '25 | now "from 2028" | Open |
| $3.4bn ARR by end '26 | Q1 '26 | raised to >$4bn, then redefined | Open |
| $1bn ARR Sep '26, >$4bn Dec '26 | Q4 '26 | $1bn hit in August; Dec open | Open |
| FY27 capex $25-30bn, $14bn in hand | Q4 '26 | the gap is the whole case | Open |
| Mining held at 50 EH/s | Q4 '25 | decommissioned; $638.8m written off | Missed |
| Sweetwater let whole-of-site | Q2 '25 | no tenant; building it themselves | Missed |
| Investor distributions in 2025 | Q1 '25 | deferred one deck later | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26
MiningOff page one Q4 '25
ARRPage one since Q1 '26
HorizonPage one since Q2 '26
PowerOff page one Q4 '26
SweetwaterOff page one Q4 '26
MicrosoftOff page one Q3 '26
FinancingPage one since Q2 '26
CustomersPage one since Q2 '26
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Bitcoin mining scale and cost
“¢ §0 EH/s expansion accelerated ¢ Negotiations with parties on additional ¢ Transition to US domestic issuer status in from H2 to HI 2025 Al monetization opportunities 2025 (including US GAAP reporting)”
Deck Q1 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 4 (OCR) ·
Bitcoin mining scale and cost
“Mining capacity increased ~50% from 2 1 EH/s to 31 EH/s”
Deck IREN Q2 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Bitcoin mining scale and cost
“50 EH/s installed capacity by June 30”
Deck IREN Q3 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Bitcoin mining scale and cost
“GPU-as-a-Service Large scale, low-cost Bitcoin production”
Deck IREN FY25 Results Presentation · p. 4 ·
Bitcoin mining scale and cost
“17% increase in average operating hashrate following continuing expansion at”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 19 ·
Bitcoin mining scale and cost
“ Q2 financials reflect a transition period as the business shifts from Bitcoin mining toward AI Cloud”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 15 ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“¢ $1EH/s next month ¢ Measured growth of Al Cloud Services ¢ Focused on alternative funding instruments”
Deck Q1 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 4 (OCR) ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“Revenues increasing with new contracts”
Deck IREN Q3 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“Scaling from 1.9k to 10.9k GPUs in the coming months”
Deck IREN FY25 Results Presentation · p. 4 ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“140k GPU expansion by end of 2026”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“ Targeted 140k GPU expansion on track to deliver $3.4bn AI Cloud ARR by end of CY262”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“ $3.1bn ARR under contract1”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
AI Cloud GPU expansion and ARR
“ $4bn contracted ARR for 2026 capacity; $1bn operating ARR today1,2”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“¢ Liquid cooling infrastructure for Blackwell ¢ Strong operating cashflows to support”
Deck Q1 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 4 (OCR) ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“New 75MW liquid-cooled data center at”
Deck IREN Q2 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“Horizon 1 - Up to 50MW (IT load) liquid-cooled capacity targeting Q4 2025 delivery”
Deck IREN Q3 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“Childress (750MW): Horizon 1 on track for Q4 2025, with site works and procurement underway for Horizon 2 – second 50MW IT load liquid-cooled data center”
Deck IREN FY25 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“Accelerating construction of Horizon 1-4”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 9 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“ Horizon 1-4 construction progressing to schedule for $9.7bn Microsoft contract”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“ Horizon 1 GPU commissioning underway”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Childress liquid-cooled Horizon build
“ Horizon 1 delivered to Microsoft, first of four 50MW (IT) deployments;”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Secured grid-connected power
“Prince George | SOMW 2,510MW contracted power”
Deck Q1 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 13 (OCR) ·
Secured grid-connected power
“2,310MW of grid-connected power secured”
Deck IREN Q2 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Secured grid-connected power
“ 2,910MW of contracted grid-connected power, plus multi-GW development pipeline”
Deck IREN FY25 Results Presentation · p. 16 ·
Secured grid-connected power
“Leverages just 16% of ~3GW secured grid-connected power”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Secured grid-connected power
“ New 1.6GW site in Oklahoma increasing secured grid-connected power to >4.5GW”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Secured grid-connected power
“ Secured power increased to 5GW”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Secured grid-connected power
“>$4bn year-end ARR target represents <10% of the 5GW+ data center pipeline1 2027 +”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 24 ·
Sweetwater hub
“¢ Progressing development of 1.4GW Sweetwater data center project”
Deck Q1 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 12 (OCR) ·
Sweetwater hub
“Developing new 600MW Sweetwater 2 site, to create 2GW Sweetwater Data”
Deck IREN Q2 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Sweetwater hub
“Sweetwater 1 - 1.4GW April 2026 energization”
Deck IREN Q3 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Sweetwater hub
“Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW) energization on track for April 2026”
Deck IREN FY25 Results Presentation · p. 15 ·
Sweetwater hub
“Sweetwater 1 (1.4GW) scheduled for April 2026”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 11 ·
Sweetwater hub
“Data center procurement and civil works progressing, with phased capital deployment”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 8 ·
Sweetwater hub
“ Sweetwater 1 energized on schedule”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Sweetwater hub
“Bulk substation complete”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 14 ·
Microsoft contract
“$9.7bn contract value”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Microsoft contract
“ Horizon 1-4 construction progressing to schedule for $9.7bn Microsoft contract”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Microsoft contract
“ Horizon 1 super cluster scheduled for Microsoft handoff in Q3 CY26”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 9 ·
Microsoft contract
“First of four 50MW (IT)”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 12 ·
Financing the build
“¢ $1EH/s next month ¢ Measured growth of Al Cloud Services ¢ Focused on alternative funding instruments”
Deck Q1 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 4 (OCR) ·
Financing the build
“Growth funding via convertible note proceeds, ATM facility, reinvesting operating cashflows, along with c ontinued evaluation of additional funding structures”
Deck IREN Q2 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Financing the build
“Advisors engaged across multiple debt financing workstreams, anticipating execution in coming months as markets continue to stabilize”
Deck IREN Q3 FY25 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Financing the build
“NEAR-TERM GROWTH CAPEX FULLY FUNDED”
Deck IREN FY25 Results Presentation · p. 18 ·
Financing the build
“$1bn zero-coupon convertible notes issued”
Deck IREN Q1 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 15 ·
Financing the build
“ $3.6bn GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract at <6% interest rate1”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Financing the build
“ Strong balance sheet with $2.6bn cash at Apr 302”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Financing the build
“ $6.5bn GPU financings in past 3 months; with prepayments, funds >100% of associated GPU capex 5Note: Refer to assumptions and notes on page 26”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Customer diversification
“ Strongest customer demand to date, with multiple advanced negotiations as execution continues and financing progresses”
Deck IREN Q2 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 3 ·
Customer diversification
“ $3.4bn 5-year AI Cloud contract with NVIDIA”
Deck IREN Q3 FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
Customer diversification
“ New multi-year cloud contracts, including with a leading frontier AI lab”
Deck IREN FY26 Results Presentation · p. 5 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Mining
- The headline through Q3 '25 — 21, then 31, then 50 EH/s. Off page one after Q1 '26, and from Q2 '26 it appears only as falling revenue and impairments: $180.3m a quarter down to $66.7m.
- ARR
- GPU counts first (1.9k, 10.9k, 140k, 150k), then ARR from Q1 '26: $3.4bn, $3.7bn, ">$4bn". Redefined in Q4 '26 to commissioned GPUs only, which is $1bn.
- Horizon
- Liquid cooling for Blackwell in Q1 '25, named Horizon 1 in Q2 '25, "targeting Q4 2025 delivery" in Q3 '25, delivered to Microsoft in Q4 '26. Horizon 2-4 now target Q4 2026.
- Power
- The number that only goes up: 2.3GW, 2.9GW, ~3GW, >4.5GW, 5GW, "5GW+ announced pipeline" — with Oklahoma, Spain and Australia added. The Q4 '26 deck uses it to say the ARR target is under 10% of the pipeline.
- Sweetwater
- In all eight decks and the one date that held: the 1.4GW substation was promised for April 2026 in November 2024 and energised on schedule. The data centres on it are 2027 and "from 2028".
- Microsoft
- Signed November 2025 at $9.7bn over five years, on the highlights slide in Q1, Q2 and Q4 '26. The contract redefined Horizon 1 and pushed its delivery three quarters.
- Financing
- On page one of six of the eight. "Alternative funding instruments", then converts and the ATM, then "NEAR-TERM GROWTH CAPEX FULLY FUNDED", then $3.6bn, then $6.5bn of GPU financings in three months.
- Customers
- Microsoft alone until Q3 '26, then NVIDIA at $3.4bn, then in Q4 '26 "a leading frontier AI lab" unnamed, with Cohere, Perplexity, Figure AI and others listed.
- New
- Q4 '26: revenue per IT megawatt as a chart (3-year pricing +125%), prepayments at 45-55% of GPU capex, a ~2 year payback, and the first FY27 capex guide — $25-30bn.
- Quiet
- Hashrate stopped after Q1 '26, the power price with it, cost per bitcoin after Q4 '25, and the illustrative $714m of mining EBITDA at 50 EH/s after the FY25 deck. Actual best quarter: $121.9m.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q4 FY2026 release · 8-K 27 Aug 2026
- Q3 FY2026 release · 8-K 8 May 2026
- Q2 FY2026 release · 8-K 5 Feb 2026
- Q1 FY2026 release · 8-K 6 Nov 2025
- Q3 FY2025 release · 6-K 14 May 2025
- Q2 FY2025 release · 6-K 12 Feb 2025
- Q4 FY2024 release · 6-K 16 Oct 2024
- Q4 FY2024 release · 6-K 23 Sep 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q1 25 – Q4 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 | Q4 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 25% | 33% | 11% | 38% | 75% | 53% | 44% | 56% |
| Growth & sales | · | · | 22% | 23% | · | 20% | 6% | 25% |
| Pricing & margins | 12% | 17% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 25% |
| Guidance & outlook | 12% | 8% | · | 8% | · | 20% | 6% | 12% |
| Capacity & supply | 12% | 33% | 22% | 46% | 38% | 33% | 50% | 75% |
| Capital & financing | 25% | 8% | 22% | 38% | 19% | 13% | 25% | 44% |
| Competition | · | · | · | 15% | · | 7% | · | · |
| Products & technology | 6% | 17% | 11% | 62% | 38% | 33% | 31% | 6% |
| Macro & regulation | · | 8% | · | · | 6% | · | · | · |
| Other | 44% | 33% | 67% | · | 12% | 13% | 31% | 6% |
| Questions | 16 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| How much the CEO talked | 88% | 59% | 63% | 48% | 50% | 36% | 50% | 47% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · worsening
Pay stopped being performance pay
Fiscal 2025 pay was $72.6m for each co-CEO against $6.7m the year before, mostly the June 2025 retention grant whose price hurdles ran from $20 to $50 against a $7.72 average. Five of the six are below today's price. Then on 1 July 2026 the board granted 9,099,328 units to each of them — 4.6% of the company — vesting on continued employment only, with no performance condition and no further grant until fiscal 2031. Because of the B Class shares, each of those shares carries sixteen votes.
Tier 2 · stable
Fifteen votes a share, and the founders never face a vote
Each co-CEO holds one of the two B Class shares, entitled to fifteen votes for every ordinary share its holder owns: 2.3% of the shares each and 21.8% of the votes each at the proxy date, 43.5% for all directors and officers. The constitution amended in November 2025 requires "Non-Founder Directors" to stand at each annual meeting, in classes sunsetting from 2030, and excludes the two Founder Directors. No director stood at the 2025 meeting.
Tier 2 · worsening
The share count is the funding plan, and the funding question was dodged twice
Shares up 77% in fourteen months, 41% annualised in the latest half. Live sources: $3.5bn unsold of a $6bn at-market programme, $6.75bn of converts struck as low as $13.64, 39.7m shares issued in December 2025 to buy back part of two series, and the co-CEO units. Against a fiscal 2027 capex guide of $25-30bn with about $14bn in hand. Asked how the rest is financed, the CFO said "we have a range of financing sources available to us" and the co-CEO, a quarter later, "we'll let you know when we close one."
Tier 3 · improving
Auditor changed, weakness remediated, class action dismissed
KPMG replaced Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton in November 2025 with no disagreement disclosed — the one red disclosure flag in three years. The material weakness disclosed in the FY2024 20-F/A was remediated by 30 June 2025, and for fiscal 2026 controls were effective and attested. The 2022 securities class action was dismissed with prejudice and is on appeal.
Tier 3 · worsening
Six measures were dropped, and ARR was redefined in the quarter it became checkable
Hashrate, the illustrative mining EBITDA sensitivity, cost per bitcoin, the power price, the GPU count and the AI Cloud monthly run rate all stopped; persistence across the eight decks is 0.33. Until Q3 FY26, ARR counted a signed contract's average annual value before any GPU was live; from Q4 FY26 it counts GPU/hour pricing on commissioned GPUs — $0.5bn at June, $1bn in August, against ">$4bn" contracted.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Say on pay (advisory)Executive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | — | 29.4M | 12.0% |
| 2025 Omnibus Incentive PlanStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much. | — | 29.3M | 12.0% |
| Forum selection provisionWhere shareholders may sue. Requires lawsuits against the company to be filed in a court the company picks, which limits shareholders' choice. | — | 7.8M | 3.2% |
| Repurchase under the capped callsBuying back shares. Permission for the company to buy its own shares back from the market, which leaves each remaining share a larger slice of the company. | — | 0.5M | 0.2% |
| Director elections at each AGMElect the whole board every year. Where only a third of the directors stand each year, it takes three years to replace the board. Annual elections make every seat answerable to shareholders every year, so shareholders gain power; a no keeps the board harder to remove. | — | 0.2M | 0.1% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Form 4s, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Roberts, co-CEO | $33.1M | 1,000,000 shares at $33.131 on 11 Sep '25, through a family trust, outside any plan |
| William Roberts, co-CEO | $33.1M | the same number at the same price on the same day, through the other trust |
| Everyone else | $0 | no other insider sale in the twelve months, and no purchase by anyone |