MSTRStrategy Inc

Industry Bitcoin treasury Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$146 → $146

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$146 → $146

Show the math

management's own Net Reserve, $36.3B at 27 Jul '26 (bitcoin and the USD Reserve, less $15.4B of preferred and $6.7B of convertible notes), sets today's price-to-NAV, which is held. NAV then grows at management's objective of a 10% BTC Yield a year (doubling bitcoin per share in seven years), plus the new shares sold to buy the bitcoin, at bitcoin's July price. Divided by a share count that grows at the past pace. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. From Oct 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $137 at 12 months.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshare count up about 38% a year from ATM sales, as from Feb to Jul '26; NAV grows with it	$146	$146576M sh · held	$152793M sh	$1661091M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Market value today ($146 times 384.2M Class A and B shares) over the Net Reserve in the Q2 '26 deck sets the price-to-NAV. No debt or cash is added: Net Reserve already deducts the converts and the preferred at notional and counts the USD Reserve. The Net Reserve is at the bitcoin price of 27 Jul '26, so the multiple is approximate. Held, so none of the rise is a re-rating.
The growth. 10% a year in bitcoin per share, management's objective since the Q4 '25 deck (its illustrative low and high cases are about 5% and 14%), compounded with the share count's past pace so that the bitcoin bought with new shares is in NAV. The share pace cancels on the per-share line.
The shares. 384.2M at 24 Jul 2026 on the 10-Q cover, growing at the pace from Feb to Jul '26. Options, RSUs and PSUs are left out, and so are the converts and STRK, all far out of the money and already deducted from NAV.
Not in it. Any change in bitcoin's price; the drag of preferred dividends ($1.76B a year by Jul '26) when bitcoin is bought with preferred, which BTC Yield does not count; any sale of bitcoin; the software business.

Promises vs. what happened

15 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
21/21: $42B raised by 2027	Q3 '24	equity half done in 6 months; then doubled	Held
Leverage 20-30% by issuing credit	Q4 '24	28%, then 34%, then redefined	Held
2025: BTC Yield 15%+, $10B gain	Q4 '24	22.8%; $8.9B gain	Late
Ratings for the securities	Q1 '25	issuer B- from S&P; securities unrated	Late
Equitize the converts	Q2 '25	$1.5B bought back in cash instead	Late
STRC held near $100	Q2 '25	below par again; rate up to 12%	Late
Preferred in Europe, Canada	Q3 '25	euro STRE only	Late
USD Reserve: 2-3 years of payouts	Q4 '25	fell to 1.5 years; topped up	Late
BTC Yield 6-10% a year, 2025-27	Q3 '24	22.8% in 2025; 2026 open	Open
BTC Ratings 3-10x by mid '28	Q2 '25	STRC and STRK moving away	Open
Double BPS by 2032	Q4 '25	+4.5% in 2026 to Jul; due 2032	Open
2025: 30% yield, $20B gain at $150K	Q2 '25	cut in Dec; 22.8%, $8.9B	Missed
2025 EPS $80 at $150K bitcoin	Q2 '25	EPS -$15.23	Missed
No common below 2.5x mNAV	Q2 '25	issued near 1.1x; line dropped	Missed
Never sell bitcoin	Q3 '24	3,620 BTC sold for dividends	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

HoldingsOff page one Q2 '26

BPSPage one since Q2 '26

RaisingOff page one Q1 '26

CreditOff page one Q1 '26

CoverageFirst seen Q4 '24

EarningsFirst seen Q4 '24

OutperformanceFirst seen Q3 '24

AdoptionFirst seen Q4 '24

ReserveOff page one Q1 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.