The Ledger

ARMArm Holdings plc

Industry IP licensors Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$210 → $301

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$210 → $210

One guided year on: +18% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $210, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $301 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $210 is +18% a year, $248 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

today's multiple of 100× on the guided quarter's non-GAAP earnings at an annual rate, held flat, with earnings compounding at the 47.9% a year that reaches management's own FYE31 figure of more than $9 a share. Company value plus net cash, divided by a share count growing at its past pace. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution.

0$100$200$300$400$500Today (Oct 2026): $210, the market price$210TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $210 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$21012 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $284 a share if management delivers$28424 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $412 a share if management delivers$41236 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace, all sharesthe count grows about 1.1% a year as in the half to Jun '26, with stock pay netted for tax$210$2101084M sh · held$2841096M sh$4121109M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value today — $210 times 1068.0M shares, no debt, less $3.9bn of cash and short-term investments — over the guided second quarter's non-GAAP earnings at an annual rate, which is 100×. The base is $0.43-$0.51 of guided earnings a share times the 1,078m diluted shares of Q1 FY27, times four; Arm has given no full-year guide since May 2025.
  2. The growth. Earnings compound at 47.9% a year, the rate that takes that base to more than $9 a share in FYE31 on the same share count. The target is on page 26 of the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 decks, "based on Arm's internal estimates as of March 2026": $10bn of IP and CSS revenue at a >65% operating margin and $15bn of AGI CPU chips at >30%. The nearer markers are a 20% royalty CAGR and mid-teens opex growth from FYE26.
  3. The shares. No money is raised and none is returned. About $1bn a year of stock pay is netted against the tax due on it, so the count has grown about 1.1% a year; the board holds authority to issue up to 1,025m more shares to August 2028, which this line does not assume is used.
  4. Held. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the 12-month figure is held at today's price; the arithmetic alone gives $207 at 12 months. The 24- and 36-month figures are the arithmetic's own.

Promises vs. what happened

13 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
FY25 revenue $3.80-4.10BQ2 '25about $4.01B; the last full-year guideHeld
Q3 '25 revenue $920-970MQ2 '25$983M, above the topHeld
Q2 '25 licence dip was timingQ2 '25+14%, then +53%Held
CSS licences ahead of planQ2 '2511 to 21; the plan was never shownHeld
Q1 '27 revenue $1.26B ± $50MQ4 '26$1.289BHeld
Hyperscaler share near 50% in '25Q1 '26dropped, no 2025 figure givenDropped
Q2 '27 revenue $1.38B ± $50MQ1 '27open; due Nov '26Open
Over $2B of AGI CPU demand in two yearsQ4 '26open; the $2B figure left the next deckOpen
AGI CPU revenue from FYE28, ~$15B by FYE31Q4 '26open; chart shows only FYE31Open
Royalty CAGR 20% to FYE31Q4 '26open; Q1 '27 +22%, Q2 guided ~13%Open
Opex CAGR mid-teens to FYE31Q4 '26open; running +18-20%Open
Licence above long-term targetQ4 '26open; the target is not statedOpen
FYE31 EPS over $9 on $25B revenueQ4 '26open; the whole value model rests on itOpen

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26Q1
'27

Armv9Off page one Q3 '25

CSSPage one since Q4 '25

AI everywhereOff page one Q1 '26

Data centreOff page one Q4 '26

AGI CPUPage one since Q4 '26

FYE31 targetsFirst seen Q4 '26

Agentic AIFirst seen Q4 '26

Business unitsFirst seen Q3 '26

Chips shippedOff page one Q1 '27

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Armv9 and royalty rate per chip

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Armv9 25% of royalty revenues*”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q2 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Armv9 and royalty rate per chip

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Armv9 commands a higher royalty per chip than prior architectures”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 9 ·

Armv9 and royalty rate per chip

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Armv9 commands a higher royalty per chip than prior architectures”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 9 ·

Armv9 and royalty rate per chip

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“Adding functionality lifts royalty rates”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 20 ·

Armv9 and royalty rate per chip

Q1 '27 · further in the deck

“Royalty Revenue: Armv9 adoption is driving royalty growth”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE27 Investor Presentation · p. 28 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Leading semi cos, OEMs and CSPs take CSS to accelerate chip designs 11 CSS licensees to date ahead of plan at IPO; likely preferred model for many partners in the future”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q2 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 12 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Arm entered into its first license for automotive CSS with a leading global automotive OEM designing their first major automotive chip.”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Arm signed another three CSS licenses in the quarter, all with existing CSS customers wanting to use next generation CSS for their future chips.”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Arm signed another three CSS licenses in the quarter, for chips that will be used smartphones, PCs and in AI data centers”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q2 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q3 '26 · headline page

“Arm signed another two CSS licenses in the quarter, for chips that will be used smartphones and tablets”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Arm signed another two CSS licenses in the quarter, for chips that will be used in smartphones and tablets”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Compute subsystems (CSS)

Q1 '27 · headline page

“Arm signed another two CSS licenses in the quarter, for chips that will be used in smartphones and autonomous driving”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE27 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI on Arm everywhere

Q2 '25 · headline page

“In Q2, Meta and Arm announced they are working on optimizing Llama, PyT orch and ExecuT orch for Gen AI from the data center to edge devices”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q2 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI on Arm everywhere

Q3 '25 · headline page

“In Q3, NVIDIA announced Project DIGITS and AI PC for model development, and SoftBank announced”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI on Arm everywhere

Q4 '25 · headline page

“In Q4, NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell entered full production and Arm announced the first Armv9 compute platform targeting edge AI devices.”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Data-center share and custom silicon

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Microsoft Cobalt 100 and Google Axion achieved”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Data-center share and custom silicon

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Already over 70.000 customers use Arm-based chips in data centers".”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Data-center share and custom silicon

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Meta joins AWS, Google, Microsoft, etc. in deploying”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q2 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Data-center share and custom silicon

Q3 '26 · headline page

“AWS, Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc. are deploying”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Arm AGI CPU (own silicon)

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Arm AGI CPU introduced for cloud &”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Arm AGI CPU (own silicon)

Q1 '27 · headline page

“Arm AGI CPU chip introduced for cloud & AI data centers”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE27 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

FYE31 targets and the AGI CPU revenue ramp

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“Revenue to ramp exponentially to ~$15B in FYE31”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 18 ·

FYE31 targets and the AGI CPU revenue ramp

Q1 '27 · further in the deck

“Please have column tops fade out so readers can’t see where precisely what the columns represent except for FYE31”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE27 Investor Presentation · p. 18 ·

Agentic AI moves the bottleneck to the CPU

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“We need to fit 4x more CPU cores into the same power envelope.”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 16 ·

Agentic AI moves the bottleneck to the CPU

Q1 '27 · further in the deck

“We need to fit 4x more CPU cores into the same power envelope.”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE27 Investor Presentation · p. 16 ·

Edge AI, Cloud AI and Physical AI business units

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“Note: During the quarter, Arm reorganized its Lines of Business into Business Units: Edge AI”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 11 ·

Edge AI, Cloud AI and Physical AI business units

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“Arm’s opportunity spans three areas with shared growth drivers”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 13 ·

Edge AI, Cloud AI and Physical AI business units

Q1 '27 · further in the deck

“Cloud AI will be our fastest growing royalty revenue driver”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE27 Investor Presentation · p. 22 ·

Cumulative Arm-based chips shipped

Q2 '25 · headline page

“+300bn Arm-based chips shipped”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q2 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cumulative Arm-based chips shipped

Q3 '25 · headline page

“+310bn Arm-based chips shipped”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE25 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cumulative Arm-based chips shipped

Q1 '26 · headline page

“+325bn Arm-based chips shipped”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q1 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cumulative Arm-based chips shipped

Q3 '26 · headline page

“+325bn Arm-based chips shipped”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q3 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cumulative Arm-based chips shipped

Q4 '26 · headline page

“+350bn Arm-based chips shipped”

Deck Arm Holdings plc Q4 FYE26 Investor Presentation · p. 4 ·

What they keep talking about · 11

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Armv9
A headline figure (25% of royalties) only in Q2 '25; the chart went annual in Q1 '26 and to the appendix in Q4 '26, after the CEO said he could guarantee a figure considerably above 25%.
CSS
On the highlights slide in seven of eight. The running total (11 to 21) stopped after Q3 '26; since then only the quarter's two new licences.
AI everywhere
The FY25 headline, partner by partner: Meta, NVIDIA, SoftBank. Replaced by data-centre share in Q1 '26.
Data centre
Four decks, carrying the forecast that hyperscaler share would approach 50% in 2025 — still a forecast in Feb '26, then gone with no result.
AGI CPU
New in Q4 '26: Arm's own chip, co-developed with Meta, a business beside licence and royalty that competes with some licensees.
FYE31 targets
Two decks: $25bn of revenue, ~$15bn of it chips, >$9 EPS, on estimates as of March 2026. The Q1 '27 deck left in a design note asking that the ramp's column tops fade so readers cannot see them.
Agentic AI
Two decks: the case that agents move the bottleneck to the CPU, the argument for the AGI CPU.
Business units
Edge, Cloud and Physical AI replaced the end-market royalty split after Q3 '26.
Chips shipped
On every highlights slide, often unchanged for two or three decks: 300bn, 310bn, 325bn, 325bn, 350bn.
New
Q4 '26: the AGI CPU, over $2bn of potential demand, a royalty CAGR of 20% and opex CAGR mid-teens to FYE31, and annualized contract value moved to the main pages.
Quiet
Dropped by Q4 '26: RPO (last $2.15bn, down 8%), the ATA and AFA licence counts, the CSS running total, the end-market royalty split and the quarterly Armv9 share. The full-year guide went in May '25.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 16

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q2 25 – Q1 27

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 26Q1 27
Demand & customers44%21%33%50%25%15%50%45%
Growth & sales56%18%14%·62%26%50%55%
Pricing & margins11%·14%8%12%·10%27%
Guidance & outlook44%7%19%17%25%11%30%18%
Capacity & supply11%7%10%8%25%19%40%36%
Capital & financing·4%5%·12%7%·9%
Competition11%·······
Products & technology33%14%14%33%62%19%50%·
Macro & regulation11%7%14%17%12%···
Other·57%38%33%·48%10%9%
Questions92821128271011
How much the CEO talked0%49%39%68%58%44%67%51%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    The parent is the customer, and most of what it owed was not billed

    Related parties were 30% of FY26 revenue and 74% of its growth; external revenue grew 7%. SoftBank's consulting fees rose from $145.5M to $704.4M, and $645.8M of current contract assets from a SoftBank affiliate was unbilled at Mar '26; one statement of work was converted into a fixed $300M payment due in FY27. The auditor's only critical audit matter is revenue on long-term contracts including related parties, and the topic drew a dodge and two refusals on three calls running.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    SoftBank picks the board and has pledged 72% of the company

    SoftBank designated every non-executive director; four of eight are independent; no nominating committee; Masayoshi Son chairs the remuneration committee with two other SoftBank-linked directors. 769,029,000 shares are pledged for SoftBank's $8.5bn margin loan, and Arm has agreed to facilitate foreclosure after a default.

  3. Tier 2 · worsening

    A $2 trillion mega-grant, opposed by most holders who are not SoftBank

    The CEO's single figure was $60.6M for FY26. Revenue missed the bonus target ($4,920M against $4,996M) and the committee used discretion on a strategic measure; shares still vested at 153% of target. The new policy doubles the PSU cap to 200% and adds 425,000 shares vesting at $1.0tn, $1.5tn and $2.0tn of market value by March 2029-2031. It drew 36.4M votes against — about 69% of the votes SoftBank did not cast. The CEO has also run SoftBank Group International part-time since April 2026.

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    Standing authority to nearly double the share count

    The board may allot 1,025,234,000 more shares to Aug '28 with pre-emption disapplied; only SoftBank keeps a contractual right to buy in. Stock pay runs at about $1bn a year with no buyback.

  5. Tier 3 · live

    Seven officers sold $72M and nobody bought

    Forms 4 since Mar '26: $72.2M of sales by seven officers, $27.3M of it under plans, no purchases. The chief legal officer, chief architect and chief people officer sold to zero in May; $55.0M more was withheld for tax on vesting.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Son (chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.20.9M22.8M2.3%
Haas (CEO)A board seat.13.8M18.4M1.9%
FisherA board seat.19.8M23.2M2.4%
SineA board seat.18.8M23.2M2.4%
Dykstra (audit chair)A board seat.2.3M5.2M0.5%
Pay policy (VCP)Executive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.—36.4M3.7%
Pay reportExecutive pay.15.2M18.3M1.9%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Forms 4, Mar-Sep 2026SoldNote
Child, chief financial officer$20.0Mfive sales, all under a plan
Collins, chief legal officer$19.8MMay, not under a plan; holds none
Abbey, chief commercial officer$12.0Mten sales Apr-Jun
Haas, chief executive$6.6Munder a plan; 143,316 shares more withheld for tax
Grisenthwaite, chief architect$5.1Mone sale on 18 May; holds none