ADURAduro Clean Technologies Inc.

Industry Canada smallcap Updated 27 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2029

Held at C$13.67

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

C$14 → C$14

One guided year on: held. 2028 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, C$13.67, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to C$11.26 at the end of 2029, 38 months from the price date, below today's C$13.67. So the Companies page lists it held at today's price rather than falling.

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Value is today's company value per tonne of the 10,000 t-a-year first plant at Chemelot, due in early 2028, grown only by the commercial site of up to 25,000 t a year an earlier deck drew: none in the low case, one by 2031 in the high case. No price, licence fee or cost per tonne is assumed, because management has given none since 2023. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2028, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution. From Oct 2029 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives C$11 at 36 months.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares growing at their past pace+16% a year, May '25 to Aug '26, three raises included; the plant's cost is not counted	C$14	C$1442M sh · held	C$1449M sh · held	C$1457M sh · held

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

Capacity. 10,000 t of plastic feed a year from the first-of-a-kind plant at Chemelot (May '26 deck), which the FY2026 MD&A expects to complete in early calendar 2028. Then 0 to 8,300 t a year added: either nothing (the 2026 decks date no plant after it) or one commercial site of up to 25,000 t a year by 2031, the row the September '25 deck put in 2028–29 and later decks dropped.
Today's value per tonne. Today's company value, C$14 × 35.7M shares less cash, is spread over the 10,000 t and held per tonne as capacity grows. That is generous to the plan: Aduro is a licensor, and the value of the process to it depends on licence terms it has not stated.
Shares. 35.7M at 31 Aug 2026, growing at the pace from May 2025 to August 2026, which held three share offerings. Options and warrants are left out. The plant's capital cost is not stated, so no raise for it is counted beyond that pace.
Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Net debt is -C$71M: no borrowings, and cash of C$38.3M at May '26 plus the June raises and exercises, gross of fees. Capex is not charged.
Held. Every bar is held at today's C$14. To the end of 2028, the year management has guided, the value is today's and only the share count moves; from October 2029 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count. The arithmetic alone gives C$12 at 12 months, C$10 at 24 and C$11 at 36.

Promises vs. what happened

12 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The dates slip and the numbers disappear. Two of ten settled promises held. The 2023 revenue and break-even targets were dropped without a word, and every plant milestone came late.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Choose the plant site	Q3 '25	Chemelot, Jan '26	Held
About C$10M a year of burn	Q1 '26	C$9.9M, plus C$4.8M capex	Held
Lab expansion Q3 '23	Q3 '23	done in 2024	Late
2–4 new patents in 2024	Q1 '24	one filing	Late
Detailed plant design in 2025	Q1 '25	early works only, Aug '26	Late
+$90M recurring revenue by year 5	Q3 '23	gone after one deck	Dropped
Commercial sites, 2028–29	Q3 '25	dropped from later decks	Open
First plant starts on farm plastic	Q1 '26	not built	Open
Commercial units '25/26, break-even '26/27	Q3 '23	first plant now early 2028	Missed
Two customer collaborations in 2024	Q3 '24	still one in Aug '26	Missed
Pilot plant running, early Q3 '25	Q1 '25	Feb '26	Missed
Ontario demo plant with NexGen	Q1 '26	plant went to the Netherlands	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'23Q1
'24Q2
'24Q3
'24Q1
'25Q3
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

Market sizePage one since Q3 '25

Vs pyrolysisFirst seen Q3 '23

Licence moneyFirst seen Q3 '23

CustomersFirst seen Q1 '24

Pilot plantFirst seen Q2 '24

First plantFirst seen Q3 '25

Paraffinic crudeFirst seen Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.