TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Industry AI semis Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$419 → $440
What the podcasts say
2 bullish · 1 bearish · 3 speakers · 2 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Bullish
Promises vs. what happened
17 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
Quarter guides: never missed in eight. The year's first number runs ten points low, and the capital budget only goes up.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 guide, US$25.0–25.8B | Q4 '24 | US$25.53B, inside | Held |
| 2025 revenue +mid-20s% | Q1 '25 | +35.9% | Held |
| Long-term gross margin ≥53% | Q1 '25 | 59.9% in 2025; floor raised to 56% | Held |
| ROE >25% through the cycle | Q1 '25 | 35.4% in 2025; raised to high-20s% | Held |
| 2025 capex US$38–42B | Q4 '24 call | US$40.9B | Held |
| Q3 '26 guide, US$44.6–45.8B | Q2 '26 | US$46.72B, above the top | Held |
| Arizona fab 1 in production, early '25 | Q3 '24 call | Q4 '24, a quarter early | Held |
| 2024–29 revenue CAGR ~20% | Q1 '25 | raised to ~25% | Open |
| 2026 revenue +~30% | Q4 '25 | around 44% by Oct '26 | Open |
| Q4 '26 guide, US$52.3–54.3B | Q3 '26 | due Jan '27 | Open |
| AI accelerator CAGR mid-40s% | Q4 '24 call | mid-to-high-50s%, then no number | Open |
| ≥NT$23 dividend in 2026 | Q4 '25 call | NT$24 promised | Open |
| Arizona fab 2 in production, 2028 | Q3 '24 call | shell complete Apr '25 | Open |
| Overseas dilution 2–3 pts a year | Q3 '24 call | margin rose 10 pts anyway | Open |
| Kumamoto fab 2 by end '27 | Q3 '24 call | no later date given | Open |
| Dresden fab by end '27 | Q3 '24 call | no later date given | Open |
| 2026 capex US$52–56B | Q4 '25 call | raised to US$60–64B | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26
GuidePage one since Q4 '24
FXFirst seen Q4 '24
NodesFirst seen Q4 '24
HPCFirst seen Q4 '24
YearFirst seen Q1 '25
5-yearFirst seen Q1 '25
CapexFirst seen Q4 '24
DividendFirst seen Q4 '24
OverseasFirst seen Q1 '25
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 26.88 26.1-26.9 23.50 19.62 +14.4% +37.0%”
Deck 4Q24 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 25.53 25.0-25.8 26.88 18.87 -5.1% +35.3%”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 30.07 28.4-29.2 25.53 20.82 +17.8% +44.4%”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 33.10 31.8-33.0 30.07 23.50 +10.1% +40.8%”
Deck 3Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 33.73 32.2-33.4 33.10 26.88 +1.9% +25.5%”
Deck 4Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 35.90 34.6-35.8 33.73 25.53 +6.4% +40.6%”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 40.20 39.0-40.2 35.90 30.07 +12.0% +33.7%”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
The quarter against the guide, in US dollars
“Net Revenue (US$ billions) 46.72 44.6-45.8 40.20 33.10 +16.2% +41.2%”
Deck 3Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 4 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32.8 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 4Q24 Presentation (E) · p. 12 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32.5 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 9 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 29.0 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 9 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 30.6 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 3Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 9 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 31.6 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 4Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 12 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 31.7 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 9 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 9 ·
Next-quarter guidance on a stated exchange rate
“And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 31.8 NT dollars, management expects:”
Deck 3Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 9 ·
Advanced nodes' share of wafer revenue
“7nm 5nm 3nm 4Q24 Revenue by Technology 7nm and Below Revenue 0.11/0.13um 2% 90nm 1% 0.25um and above 0% 40/45nm 3% 28nm 6%16nm 7% 0.15/0.18um 3% 65nm 4% 7nm 14% 5nm 34% 3nm 26%”
Deck 4Q24 Presentation (E) · p. 5 ·
Advanced nodes' share of wafer revenue
“7nm 5nm 3nm 7nm and Below Revenue 0.11/0.13um 2% 90nm 1% 0.25um and above 0% 40/45nm 3% 28nm 7% 16/20nm 7% 0.15/0.18um 3% 65nm 4% 7nm 15% 5nm 36% 3nm 22%”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 5 ·
Advanced nodes' share of wafer revenue
“7nm 5nm 3nm 7nm and Below Revenue 0.11/0.13um 2% 90nm 1% 0.25um and above 0% 40/45nm 3% 28nm 7% 16/20nm 7% 0.15/0.18um 3% 65nm 3% 7nm 14% 5nm 36% 3nm 24%”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 5 ·
Advanced nodes' share of wafer revenue
“© 42026 TSMC, Ltd TSMC Property 1Q26 Revenue by Technology 0.11/0.13um 1%90nm 1% 0.25um and above 1% 40/45nm 3% 28nm 7% 16/20nm 7% 0.15/0.18um 2% 65nm 4% 7nm 13% 5nm 36% 3nm 25%”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 5 ·
Advanced nodes' share of wafer revenue
“≥0.15um 3% 65nm 4% 2nm 3%”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 5 ·
HPC as the largest platform
“HPC 53%”
Deck 4Q24 Presentation (E) · p. 7 ·
HPC as the largest platform
“HPC 59%”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 6 ·
HPC as the largest platform
“HPC 60%”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 6 ·
HPC as the largest platform
“HPC 61%”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 6 ·
Full-year revenue outlook in US dollar terms
“◼ 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-20s% in US dollar terms”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Full-year revenue outlook in US dollar terms
“◼ 2025 revenue to increase by around 30% in US dollar terms”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Full-year revenue outlook in US dollar terms
“2026 revenue to increase by close to 30% in US dollar terms”
Deck 4Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 13 ·
Full-year revenue outlook in US dollar terms
“◼ 2026 revenue to increase by above 30% in US dollar terms”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Full-year revenue outlook in US dollar terms
“2026 revenue to increase by slightly above 40% in US dollar terms”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Full-year revenue outlook in US dollar terms
“2026 revenue to increase by around 44% in US dollar terms”
Deck 3Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Five-year targets for revenue growth, gross margin and ROE
“◼ Revenue CAGR to approach 20% in US dollar terms”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Five-year targets for revenue growth, gross margin and ROE
“Revenue CAGR to approach 25% in US dollar terms”
Deck 4Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 13 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (361.95) (207.08) (170.16)”
Deck 4Q24 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (330.83) (361.95) (181.30)”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 8 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (297.22) (330.83) (205.68)”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 8 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (287.45) (297.22) (207.08)”
Deck 3Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 8 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (356.91) (287.45) (361.95)”
Deck 4Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (350.76) (356.91) (330.83)”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 8 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (496.00) (350.76) (297.22)”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 8 ·
Capital expenditure and free cash flow
“Capital expenditures (443.21) (496.00) (287.45)”
Deck 3Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 8 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$4.50 Cash Dividend for the Third Quarter of 2024 and Set March 18, 2025 as Ex-Dividend Date, March 24, 2025 as the Record Date and April 10, 2025 as the Distribution”
Deck 4Q24 Presentation (E) · p. 13 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$4.50 Cash Dividend for the Fourth Quarter of 2024 and Set June 12, 2025 as Ex-Dividend Date, June 18, 2025 as the Record Date and July 10, 2025 as the Distribution”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$5.00 Cash Dividend for the First Quarter of 2025 and Set”
Deck 2Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$5.00 Cash Dividend for the Second Quarter of 2025 and Set December 11, 2025 as Ex-Dividend Date, December 17, 2025 as the Record Date and January 8, 2026 as the Distribution Date (2025/08/12)”
Deck 3Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 10 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$6.00 Cash Dividend for the Third Quarter of 2025 and Set March 17, 2026 as Ex-Dividend Date, March 23, 2026 as the Record Date and April 9, 2026 as the Distribution Date (2025/11/11)”
Deck 4Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 14 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$6.00 Cash Dividend for the Fourth Quarter of 2025 and Set June 11, 2026 as Ex-Dividend Date, June 17, 2026 as the Record Date and July 9, 2026 as the Distribution Date (2026/02/10)”
Deck 1Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$7.00 Cash Dividend for the First Quarter of 2026 and Set September 16, 2026 as Ex-Dividend Date, September 22, 2026 as the Record Date and October 8, 2026 as the Distribution Date (2026/05/12)”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
A rising quarterly cash dividend
“TSMC Board of Directors Approved NT$7.00 Cash Dividend for the Second Quarter of 2026 and Set December 10, 2026 as Ex-Dividend Date, December 16, 2026 as the Record Date and January 7, 2027 as the Distribution Date (2026/08/11)”
Deck 3Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
Overseas fabs and partnerships
“TSMC Intends to Expand Its Investment in the United States to US$165 Billion to Power the Future of AI”
Deck 1Q25 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
Overseas fabs and partnerships
“Sony Semiconductor Solutions and TSMC Entered Preliminary Agreement for Next-Generation Image Sensor Strategic Partnership (2026/05/08)”
Deck 2Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
Overseas fabs and partnerships
“Sony Semiconductor Solutions and TSMC Agreed to Establish Joint Venture for Next-Generation Image Sensors (2026/08/11)”
Deck 3Q26 Presentation (E) · p. 11 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Guide
- Page one of every deck is the income statement with the guided range printed beside the result. Eight for eight on revenue; five above the top of the range.
- FX
- Margins are guided at a stated USD/NTD rate, 32.8 in Q4 '24, 29 in Q2 '25, 31.8 in Q3 '26; the dollar's swing is the one line management says it does not control.
- Nodes
- 3nm went from 26% of wafer revenue in Q4 '24 to 33% in Q3 '26 (the release); 2nm got its own slice in Q2 '26 at 3%, 8% by Q3. Three chart pages in the archive carry no text.
- HPC
- HPC rose from 53% to 61% of revenue while smartphone fell from 35% to 26%; four platform pages in the archive carry no text.
- Year
- A Future Outlook slide in six of eight decks. 2025: mid-20s% to around 30% to 35.9% delivered. 2026: close to 30%, above 30%, slightly above 40%, around 44%.
- 5-year
- Set in Q1 '25 (CAGR ~20%, gross margin ≥53%, ROE >25%), raised in Q4 '25 (~25%, ≥56%, high-20s%), shown in no other deck.
- Capex
- NT$362B a quarter in Q4 '24, NT$496B in Q2 '26, NT$443B in Q3. The dollar budget for the year is only ever spoken on the call, and in 2026 it was raised twice.
- Dividend
- NT$4.50 a quarter on the Q4 '24 recap slide, NT$7.00 by Q1 '26 and again for Q2, raised three times in the window without a cut.
- New
- Q3 '26: the Sony image-sensor joint venture agreed (a preliminary agreement in Q2), an ASML photomask initiative on the events slide, and the 2026 outlook raised to around 44%.
- Quiet
- Never on a slide: the capital budget, AI accelerator revenue, backlog, capacity in wafers or customer names. Platform growth rates by quarter were printed through Q2 '25 and not in Q1 '26.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q3 2026 release · 6-K 15 Oct 2026
- Q2 2026 release · 6-K 16 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 6-K 16 Apr 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 6-K 15 Jan 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 6-K 16 Oct 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 6-K 17 Jul 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 6-K 17 Apr 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 6-K 16 Jan 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 6-K 17 Oct 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 28% | 32% | 46% | 38% | 33% | 54% | 39% | 48% |
| Growth & sales | 28% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 43% | 46% | 17% | 30% |
| Pricing & margins | 17% | 20% | 12% | 19% | 13% | 31% | 14% | 19% |
| Guidance & outlook | 24% | 28% | 25% | 43% | 40% | 46% | 28% | 30% |
| Capacity & supply | 21% | 24% | 54% | 48% | 30% | 38% | 31% | 30% |
| Capital & financing | 21% | 4% | 17% | 33% | 17% | 31% | 22% | 33% |
| Competition | · | · | 8% | · | 3% | 15% | 17% | 15% |
| Products & technology | 14% | 16% | 21% | 14% | 23% | 15% | 25% | 33% |
| Macro & regulation | · | 8% | 33% | 14% | 10% | · | · | 4% |
| Other | 38% | 16% | 17% | 24% | 27% | 8% | 33% | 11% |
| Questions | 29 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 30 | 13 | 36 | 27 |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 22 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · stable
The CEO chairs the board and helps pick the independents
C.C. Wei has been chairman and CEO since Jun '24; he sits on the Nominating, Corporate Governance and Sustainability Committee with three independents. No lead independent director is named in the 20-F. All ten directors were elected together in 2024 for three years, to 2027.
Tier 2 · stable
The state is the largest holder and sits on the board
The National Development Fund of the Executive Yuan holds 6.38%, the only 5% holder, and has had a director since 1987; since Sep '25 its representative is Chun-Hsien Yeh, a cabinet minister. The nominating chair, Chuan Lin, is a former Premier and a senior adviser to the President. US$165B of US investment and the Arizona capital flows sit between two governments.
Tier 2 · stable
A fifth of the shares vote through the depositary, and undirected ones vote with the chairman
1,062.7M ADSs (20.5% of the shares) vote through Citibank. Unless holders of 51% of the ADSs instruct the same way, the depositary appoints the chairman or his designate as voting representative to vote all ADS shares 'as the voting representative deems appropriate'; for director elections, uninstructed ADS shares are voted the same way.
Tier 3 · stable
Pay is disclosed for two people; a non-independent director is also a paid adviser
2025 compensation: CEO NT$2,422.7M (US$77.2M, of which NT$1,142.5M long-term incentive and other), CFO NT$339.5M; the other 28 officers NT$6,297.8M as a group. Independent directors NT$18.9M each. F.C. Tseng, a non-independent director, received NT$19.9M of adviser fees from TSMC and NT$18.6M from non-consolidated affiliates on top of NT$13.2M of director pay.
Tier 3 · live
Legal exposure the 20-F does not count as material
The 20-F lists one material case: Marlin/Longitude's ITC and E.D. Texas patent complaints (Feb '25, ITC investigation opened 21 Mar '25). Not in it: the US export-control probe over a Sophgo chip found in a Huawei processor (Reuters, Apr '25, a possible US$1B+ penalty; no charging letter or penalty announced in anything read), the Arizona employment-discrimination class action (N.D. Cal. 5:24-cv-5684, 2024), and TSMC's own suit against ex-SVP Wei-Jen Lo (6-K, 25 Nov '25).
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acknowledge business report and accountsSigning off the year. A formal approval of the year's accounts or of the managers' conduct (a discharge), which makes it harder to hold them liable for that year later. | n/d | n/d | — |
| Amend the Articles of IncorporationChanging the company's rulebook. An amendment to the charter, articles or by-laws, the documents that set out shareholders' rights and how the board is run. | n/d | n/d | — |
| Elect directors (next in 2027)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | — | — |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Forms 4, Mar–Oct 2026 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Chuang Tzu-Sou, VP (the 20-F's Arthur Chuang, Operations/Facility, on the name match) | $14.0M | 200,000 shares at NT$2,210 on 19 May '26; 2.5M held after |
| Chen Chih-Ho, Controller | $3,761 | 50 shares on 14 Jul '26, the only other sale |