The Ledger

INTCIntel Corporation

Industry AI semis Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

Held at $86.96

What the podcasts say

1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 show

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

  1. Bullish
    Intel: a foundry and CPU play with dramatic upside, still cheap after a 4xCharles Lemonides · Monetary Matters with Jack Farley · 12 Oct 2026

All 1 statement on the Podcast Heatmap

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$87 → $87

Show the math

Hold the multiple the market pays today on the gross profit management guides for the quarter it guides, and grow it at the only rate management has put words to. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. From Oct 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $82 at 36 months.

0$20$40$60$80$100Today (Oct 2026): $87, the market price$87TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $87 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$8712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $87 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$8724 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $87 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$8736 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares +2.0% a year as in the half to Jul '26 — the one half in three with no placement in it; the 241M government warrant and 71M contingent escrowed shares are outside the count$87$875418M sh · held$875525M sh · held$875634M sh · held
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. Base. the Q3 2026 guide of $15.8-16.8B of revenue at 42.0% non-GAAP gross margin, times four. Intel gives no annual revenue or margin guide
  2. Growth. zero. The only forward shape management states is the CFO's "kind of flattish from Q2 onward from a revenue perspective" (Q1 '26 call)
  3. Margin. held at the guided 42.0%. No deck in the window states a gross margin target beyond the guided quarter
  4. Multiple. today's enterprise value over that annualised guided gross profit, held flat
  5. Held. from October 2027 the arithmetic gives less than today, $82 at 36 months, because the company value stands still and the share count grows. Nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held at $87; the arithmetic's number is printed beside it.
  6. Shares. 5,285.1M after the August 2026 sale of 242.1M shares at $95.00. Left out: 71M escrowed shares Intel's own accounts call contingently issuable, and the 240.5M government warrant at $20.00, which only becomes exercisable if Intel loses control of Foundry

Promises vs. what happened

15 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The quarters are delivered. The years are withdrawn. Seven of seven quarterly revenue outlooks landed above the midpoint, by $0.4-1.8bn. Both misses in the record are annual spending commitments, both the chief financial officer's, and both moved upward inside six months — 2026 operating expenses from $16.0bn to about $16.5bn, and 2026 capital spending from "flat to down" to "more than $20 billion".

PromiseMade inWhat happened
2025 operating expenses about $17.5BQ3 '24cut twice; closed at $16.5BHeld
2024 gross capex about $25BQ3 '24$23.9BHeld
2025 gross capex $20-23BQ3 '24cut to $18B, closed at $17.7BHeld
18A in volume production in H2 '25Q4 '24done, at Arizona and OregonHeld
Panther Lake launches on 18A in H2 '25Q3 '24launched; Series 3 now ships across client and edgeHeld
Sell a majority of AlteraQ1 '25done; deconsolidated Sep '25Held
Q2 '26 revenue, 39.0% margin, $0.20 EPSQ1 '26$16.1B, 41.8%, $0.42 — beat all threeHeld
DCAI keeps growing double digitsQ1 '26held; DCAI margin 16.1% to 39.5% in a yearHeld
100M AI PCs across '24 and '25Q3 '24AI PC units stopped being reported after Q4 '24Dropped
Gaudi 3 ramps in Q4 '24Q3 '24Gaudi disclosure stopped after Q3 '24Dropped
Foundry at operating break-even by end '27Q4 '24said once, Jan '25; never repeated. Still -$2.1B a quarterOpen
14A in high-volume manufacturing in 2028Q2 '26open; risk production H2 '27, committed Jul '26Open
Q3 '26 revenue, 42.0% margin, $0.38 EPSQ2 '26open; reported in OctoberOpen
2026 operating expenses $16.0BQ1 '25raised to about $16.5BMissed
Q2 '25 revenue, 36.5% margin, breakeven EPSQ1 '25margin 6.8pts and EPS $0.10 shortMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

CostsOff page one Q1 '26

18APage one since Q1 '26

14AFirst seen Q2 '25

AI PCOff page one Q1 '25

x86Off page one Q1 '26

AI demandPage one since Q3 '25

SupplyPage one since Q3 '25

CapitalOff page one Q1 '26

New IntelPage one since Q1 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Cost cuts and right-sizing

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Made significant progress toward $10B cost reduction plan”

Deck Intel Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and right-sizing

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Closely managing OpEx and CapEx, beginning the process of deleveraging in ‘25”

Deck Intel Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and right-sizing

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Eliminating complexity. Refocusing portfolio. Reducing costs.”

Deck Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (read by OCR) · p. 4 (OCR) ·

Cost cuts and right-sizing

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Majority of headcount actions complete, reducing layers & complexity.”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Cost cuts and right-sizing

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Strengthened balance sheet, forged strong partnerships, right-sized the organization”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Intel 18A development progressing well with products launching in 2025”

Deck Intel Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Intel 18A nearing completion and ramping into volume production in 2025”

Deck Intel Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Ramping Intel 1I8A to support first Panther Lake SKU by year”

Deck Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (read by OCR) · p. 9 (OCR) ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Intel 18A production wafers started in AZ”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Steady progress on Intel 18A, encouraged by Intel 14A engagements”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Launched Products on Intel 18A – the most advanced process node developed and manufactured in the US”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Better Intel 18A yields; More Intel 14A progress; Growing Advanced Packaging backlog 6th Consecutive Quarter Exceeding Expectations”

Deck Intel Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Intel 18A and the five-nodes-in-four-years roadmap

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Improving Execution Across All Nodes 18A successfully ramped, Improving yields & cycle times, 14A in 2028, EMIB -T progress”

Deck Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Intel 14A and external foundry customers

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Intel 14A Engagements Underway”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

Intel 14A and external foundry customers

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“a potential pause or discontinuation of our pursuit of Intel 14A and other next generation leading-edge process technologies if we are unable to secure a significant external customer for Intel 14A;”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Intel 14A and external foundry customers

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Intel 18A and 14A progress ahead of expectations”

Deck Intel Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

Intel 14A and external foundry customers

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Intel 18A-P risk production, Committed to 14A HVM in ‘28”

Deck Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

The AI PC

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“On track to ship 100M AI PCs 2024 + 2025”

Deck Intel Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

The AI PC

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Defining and innovating the AI PC at scale; Panther Lake in 2H’25”

Deck Intel Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

The AI PC

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Launched new AI PCs and continue to see demand for PC refresh”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·

The AI PC

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“PC TAM above expectations driven by refresh, Windows 11, and AI PC”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

The AI PC

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“AI PC and Edge AI momentum continues to build”

Deck Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

x86 franchise and ecosystem

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Established x86 Ecosystem Advisory Group with multiple industry leaders”

Deck Intel Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

x86 franchise and ecosystem

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Positive reception from x86 advisory group supporting custom & semi-custom silicon”

Deck Intel Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

x86 franchise and ecosystem

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Refocus on Core Product Franchise”

Deck Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (read by OCR) · p. 5 (OCR) ·

x86 franchise and ecosystem

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Revitalize x86 ISA”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

x86 franchise and ecosystem

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Core x86, U.S.-based Foundry position Intel to capitalize over time”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

x86 franchise and ecosystem

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Core x86, Focused GPU/ASIC Ambitions, U.S. Based Foundry”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI demand for CPUs, ASICs and packaging

Q3 '25 · headline page

“AI Driving Demand for Compute”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI demand for CPUs, ASICs and packaging

Q4 '25 · headline page

“AI Driving Significant Opportunity Across Our Portfolio”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI demand for CPUs, ASICs and packaging

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Intel CPUs Foundational to Inference and Agentic”

Deck Intel Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

AI demand for CPUs, ASICs and packaging

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Unprecedented Demand for AI Compute”

Deck Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Demand ahead of supply

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Revenue, GM, EPS above expectations with demand outpacing supply”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Demand ahead of supply

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Revenue, GM, EPS above expectations with demand far outpacing supply”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Demand ahead of supply

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Strong demand; Disciplined execution; Improving factory output”

Deck Intel Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Demand ahead of supply

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Q2 Exceeds Guidance, Strong Demand, Disciplined Execution, Growing Supply”

Deck Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet and outside capital

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Prudently managing capital and monetizing non-core assets”

Deck Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (read by OCR) · p. 5 (OCR) ·

Balance sheet and outside capital

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Monetize Non-Core Assets”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

Balance sheet and outside capital

Q3 '25 · headline page

“U.S. Government, NVIDIA and SoftBank Group, monetized Altera, Mobileye”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet and outside capital

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Built Strong Foundation in 2025”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

The "new Intel" culture

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Reigniting Innovation. Engineering focused. Customer First.”

Deck Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (read by OCR) · p. 4 (OCR) ·

The "new Intel" culture

Q2 '25 · headline page

“The “New” Intel will be customer-centric, engineering focused.”

Deck Intel Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

The "new Intel" culture

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Streamlining structure, engineering focused, increased collaboration with RTO”

Deck Intel Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

The "new Intel" culture

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Reinvigorating engineering excellence, customer-centric culture”

Deck Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

The "new Intel" culture

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Customer-centric, Engineering-focused; New and deepened customer relationships”

Deck Intel Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

The "new Intel" culture

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Tangible Progress in Our Transformation”

Deck Intel Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·

What they keep talking about · 11

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Costs
The lead of the first two decks and in five of eight. The $10B plan's targets were cut in steps and met — 2025 opex $17.5B to $17.0B to $16.5B — and then the 2026 figures went back up.
18A
In all eight, the one promise kept on time: volume production in H2 '25 as the January 2025 deck dated it, ramped at Arizona and Oregon, and yields now "trending ahead of targets".
14A
In four of eight, and the date hardens as the customer stays invisible: a pause allowed without an external customer (Q4 '25), then risk production in 2027 and "committed to 14A HVM in '28". No anchor customer is named in any deck or call.
AI PC
The headline of two decks, then gone. The 100-million-unit target was never reported against because AI PC units stopped being disclosed after Q4 '24.
x86
In six of eight, and now carrying the NVIDIA partnership to co-develop x86 products with NVIDIA's accelerated computing. Server CPU share, asked twice, answered twice with the roadmap.
AI demand
New in the last four and now the opening line: "Unprecedented Demand for AI Compute". DCAI's segment margin went 16.1% to 39.5% in a year, and purpose-built silicon nearly tripled.
Supply
In four of eight and the dominant constraint named on the Q2 '26 call — wafers, memory and substrates. Management says demand far outpaces available supply, which makes supply, not demand, the thing to watch.
Capital
In four of eight. Altera sold, Mobileye shares sold, NVIDIA and SoftBank placements, the U.S. government agreement — and then $23.0B of stock in August.
New Intel
From Lip-Bu Tan's first deck in Q1 '25 and in six of eight: engineering excellence, a customer-first mindset, faster decisions. A culture slide, with no number attached.
New
Q2 '26: an operating-income line back in black on the segment pages, and 14A's 2028 date moved from conditional to "committed".
Quiet
The NEX segment, AI PC units and the full-year capex and opex reconciliation all stopped. The last of those is the one that would have let a reader hold the spending commitments to account.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 10

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers43%10%30%25%45%78%44%43%
Growth & sales43%20%···33%33%57%
Pricing & margins14%20%30%12%9%11%33%43%
Guidance & outlook14%30%40%12%18%33%33%57%
Capacity & supply14%20%30%25%55%56%44%57%
Capital & financing··20%·18%11%11%29%
Competition·40%20%38%·22%11%14%
Products & technology29%30%30%38%55%22%33%14%
Macro & regulation·10%······
Other·20%·12%····
Questions71010811997
How much the CEO talked0%0%16%42%29%42%36%22%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · worsening

    Five years of capital spending at 145% of the cash the business generated

    FY21-25 capex $107.9B against $74.3B of operating cash flow, with $16.3B of dividends and $2.4B of buybacks paid out of the deficit — funded by $25.9B of new debt, $6.5-14.6B a year of partner and government capital, and asset sales. ROIC went 12.7% to -1.4%; the incremental return on the $27.4B added is about -70%. Revenue over the same five years: $54.2B, $53.1B, $52.9B. Dividend suspended since Q4 '24, no buyback, stock compensation $14.2B.

  2. Tier 1 · live

    The largest shareholder is a government department, and the agreement behind it is in court

    433,323,000 shares, 8.4%, with sole voting power, plus warrants over 240,516,150 shares at $20.00 exercisable if Intel ceases to own 51% of Foundry, plus 143M escrowed shares accounted for as a derivative liability that went $2.7B to $15.6B in six months. Intel's own risk factors say the transactions are dilutive, reduce other holders' voting influence, may limit future strategic transactions, and could later be treated as void or voidable. A stockholder derivative suit filed in March 2026 asks a federal court to invalidate the agreement.

  3. Tier 2 · live

    The chief accounting officer resigned and the chief financial officer took the role himself

    Scott Gawel resigned as principal accounting officer on 2026-04-24, effective immediately, "to pursue another career opportunity"; David Zinsner assumed the role on top of being chief financial officer, and nothing filed since names a successor. Of the six named executive officers in the 2026 proxy, three have gone in fifteen months: the chief commercial officer (Jun '25), the chief executive of Intel Products (Mar '26) and the chief legal officer (Jun '26, with severance).

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    $93.0M for the chief executive in a year with an operating loss

    Tan's FY25 total was $92,990,900, almost all new-hire and annual equity, in a year of $52.9B of revenue, a $2,214M operating loss and no dividend. The two pay items drew the two biggest protests of the eight at the May '26 meeting: 13.1% against the pay report and 15.7% against the amended equity plan. All fifteen directors and officers own about 0.05% of the company between them, and of the four insider trades in a year none of the sale value was under a pre-set plan.

  5. Tier 2 · worsening

    Four earnings-quality flags, three measures withdrawn, and the SEC staff moved an accounting treatment

    A new FY25 add-back that removes the Escrowed Shares mark — an add-back geared to Intel's own share price; restructuring in a third straight year; stock compensation of $2,434M against negative adjusted free cash flow of -$1,612M; and that cash-flow measure struck after $1,577M of government incentives and $4,891M of net partner contributions. The Q3 '25 accounting for the government agreement was adjusted after consultation with the SEC staff, which Intel judged immaterial. The three measures that stopped include the full-year capex and opex reconciliation — the one that would have held management to the two spending commitments it then moved.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Tan (CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.—22.6M against0.7%
Sanghi (CEO of Microchip)A board seat.—281.7M against8.7%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.—422.0M against13.1%
Amend the equity incentive planStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much.—506.5M against15.7%
Ratify Ernst & YoungThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.—238.2M against6.0%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26SoldNote
All insider sellers$7.5M3 sales by 2 people — and none of the value under a pre-set 10b5-1 plan
All insider buyers$0.25M1 open-market purchase
The whole board and management0.05%2,749,994 shares between fifteen people; nobody owns more than 1%