AMATApplied Materials, Inc.
Industry Semis equipment Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$377 → $385
What the podcasts say
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 showWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 revenue, EPS and gross margin | Q4 '24 | all three above the guide | Held |
| Q2 '25 revenue $7.1B ± $400M | Q1 '25 | exactly on the midpoint | Held |
| Q4 '25 revenue ~$6.7B, down on China | Q3 '25 | $6.80B, $100M above the midpoint | Held |
| FY25 a sixth straight growth year | Q3 '25 | $28.37B, +4.4% | Held |
| Demand steps up from H2 CY26 | Q4 '25 | arrived two quarters early | Held |
| Services to grow low double digits long term | Q1 '25 | met after the segment was redefined; now mid-teens | Late |
| 80-100% of free cash flow distributed | Q4 '24 | 110% in FY25, 65% over nine months of FY26 | Late |
| China below 30% of revenue in Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | never reported; next figure a year later | Dropped |
| GAA revenue to roughly double in FY25 | Q4 '24 | never reported again | Dropped |
| >50% share of the GAA and backside-power markets | Q4 '24 | dropped after Q3 '25; no share ever given | Dropped |
| Advanced DRAM revenue +40%, raised to +50%, in FY25 | Q2 '25 | never reported; 'record DRAM outside China' instead | Dropped |
| Advanced packaging to double to over $3B | Q4 '24 | raised to +70% in CY26; no revenue figure since FY24 | Open |
| Semi Systems +20% in CY26 | Q1 '26 | raised to >30%, then raised again with no number | Open |
| Q4 '26 revenue ~$10.25B ± $500M | Q3 '26 | open; reports about 12 Nov '26 | Open |
| EPIC Center open in spring '26 | Q2 '25 | slipped to the autumn; unveiling 12 Oct '26 | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26
AI demandPage one since Q1 '26
InflectionsOff page one Q2 '26
ChinaOff page one Q4 '25
RecordsPage one since Q4 '24
PricingFirst seen Q4 '24
ServicesPage one since Q3 '26
EPICFirst seen Q4 '24
CapacityFirst seen Q4 '25
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
AI as the demand driver
“AI is the Biggest Inflection of Our Lifetimes”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 6 ·
AI as the demand driver
“AI Central To Industry Outlook 5”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
AI as the demand driver
“In the early phases of a multi-decade AI application and infrastructure build out”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
AI as the demand driver
“Long-term growth thesis remains unchanged, driven by global race for AI leadership”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
AI as the demand driver
“AI Accelerating Investment in Computing Infrastructure”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 6 ·
AI as the demand driver
“» Acceleration of investments in energy-efficient AI computing”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
AI as the demand driver
“» Rapid global build-out of AI computing infrastructure”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
AI as the demand driver
“Environment: Rapid global AI infrastructure build-out, and Applied’s technology leadership, provide strong foundation for multi-year revenue and profit growth”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Key Architecture Inflections Fueling the AI Race 8”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Inflections grow the WFE market, increase relative mix of materials engineering, and provide opportunity to gain share”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 6 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Well positioned at major device architecture inflections that enable high-performance, energy-efficient AI computing”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Applied is best positioned at the major device inflections that enable the AI roadmap”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Extending leadership in logic, DRAM, and packaging as next-generation technologies ramp in volume production 12”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 12 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Leading-edge foundry/logic, high bandwidth memory DRAM, and advanced packaging are the most critical and fastest growing semiconductor markets – Applied has leadership positions”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“#1 in Advanced Packaging”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·
Leading-edge inflections (GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging)
“Leading-edge F/L, DRAM, and Advanced Packaging are Driving ~80% of WFE Growth”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·
China and trade restrictions
“China declined to 30% of revenue, in line with expectations”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 17 ·
China and trade restrictions
“Includes the estimated impact of recently announced U.S. export regulations”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 19 ·
China and trade restrictions
“CY24: Outside of China, Applied grew faster than peer group, driven by strength in leading-edge foundry-logic and DRAM”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 6 ·
China and trade restrictions
“Fiscal Q4 expected to be sequentially lower, primarily due to uncertainties in China business”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
China and trade restrictions
“Growth in FY25 tempered by increased trade restrictions and unfavorable market mix”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
China and trade restrictions
“China represented 27% of combined semi systems and AGS revenue, and 30% of overall revenue”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 17 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“FY2024: Fifth Consecutive Year of Revenue and Earnings Growth 4”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“FQ1’25: Delivered Record Results”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“Applied is delivering strong financial performance”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“Applied delivered record performance in fiscal Q3”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“Sixth Consecutive Year of Growth”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“FQ1 revenue and earnings above mid-point of guided range”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“FQ2 delivered record revenue, earnings, and highest gross margin in >25 years”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
Records and consecutive growth
“FQ3: Record-breaking quarter, including highest QoQ revenue growth in company history”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“Highest annual gross margin rate since fiscal 2000”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 16 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“» Progressed on value-based pricing initiatives and cost reductions”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 13 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“Highest quarterly Non-GAAP gross margin since FQ4’2000”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 14 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“» Price increases and richer mix of advanced systems more than offset cost increases”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 15 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“Gross margin: progressing on value-based pricing and manufacturing cost improvements”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 17 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“» Value-based pricing on most differentiated products”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 18 ·
Gross margin and value-based pricing
“Value-based pricing driving strong revenue growth and gross margin expansion to >50% for Applied and >55% for Semi Systems”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 14 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“Record revenue of $1.6B in Q4FY24, up 11% YoY”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 19 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“High percentage of revenue is from subscriptions”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 10 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“24 consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue growth”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“Core parts and services business delivered double-digit growth in FY25 11”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 11 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“Expect Annualized Double-digit Growth Rate for AGS”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 12 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“AGS Now Growing Mid-teens Rate, Potentially Higher this Year”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 13 ·
Applied Global Services growth
“» AGS growing >20% in CY26 as we help customers ramp faster and achieve higher output and yield”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“» EPIC Center in Silicon Valley is under construction and on track to come online in 2026”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“» Made significant progress with construction of the EPIC Center in Silicon Valley”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“» Construction in progress; operations to begin Spring 2026”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 11 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“operations to begin Spring 2026”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“OPERATIONS IN 2026”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 10 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“Electronics joins EPIC Center”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 11 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“FOUNDING PARTNERS”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 12 ·
EPIC Center and co-innovation
“Stanford UC Berkeley 11 Announced EPIC Engagements | EPIC Center to Begin Operations in the Fall”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 10 ·
Capacity build for demand
“Preparing our operations and service organizations to support higher demand beginning in the second half of calendar 2026, based on customer conversations 14”
Deck Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 14 ·
Capacity build for demand
“Prioritizing capacity availability for our customers”
Deck First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 16 ·
Capacity build for demand
“Top priority is increasing output to serve our customers’ growing demand ▪ Nearly doubled manufacturing capacity:”
Deck Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 17 ·
Capacity build for demand
“Doubling quarterly system manufacturing capacity from current levels by 2028”
Deck Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 13 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- AI demand
- In all eight decks, on the headline slide from Q3 '25, and from Q1 '26 the opening reason given for growth.
- Inflections
- Named every quarter, but the numbers behind it — a $6-7B market, 'over 50% SAM share' — run only to Q3 '25 and then give way to growth rates by market.
- China
- A stated share in Q4 '24 (30%), a promise to fall below it, then silence: 27% of systems plus services in Q1 '26, and absent from Q2 and Q3 '26 outside the safe-harbor text.
- Records
- The opening slide of all eight. Earned: revenue has been at or above the guided midpoint every quarter in the set.
- Pricing
- A cost-offset line in FY25, a stated driver of revenue growth by Q3 '26 — 'value-based pricing driving strong revenue growth and gross margin expansion to >50%'.
- Services
- The target raised twice, from low double digits to mid-teens long term to over 20% in CY26, and the segment redefined in between: 200mm equipment moved out in Q1 '26.
- EPIC
- In all eight, with the opening date sliding from spring 2026 to 'operations in 2026' to 'later this year' to the autumn. Eleven announced engagements, Stanford and Berkeley among them.
- Capacity
- New in Q4 '25 and now the largest promise on the page: capacity 'nearly doubled', doubling again by 2028, with a 2030 expansion option — and no revenue attached to any of it.
- New
- Q3 '26: 'CY27: Increased visibility gives high confidence in another strong growth year' — the first statement about 2027, and it carries no number.
- Quiet
- China's share of revenue and the growth split by end market both stopped being shown. Each was given once at the start of the set and never again.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q3 FY2026 release · 8-K 13 Aug 2026
- Q2 FY2026 release · 8-K 14 May 2026
- Q1 FY2026 release · 8-K 12 Feb 2026
- Q4 FY2025 release · 8-K 13 Nov 2025
- Q3 FY2025 release · 8-K 14 Aug 2025
- Q2 FY2025 release · 8-K 15 May 2025
- Q1 FY2025 release · 8-K 13 Feb 2025
- Q4 FY2024 release · 8-K 14 Nov 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q4 24 – Q3 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 14% | 38% | 10% | 18% | 28% | 30% | 16% | 14% |
| Growth & sales | 39% | 38% | 30% | 64% | 44% | 13% | 42% | 32% |
| Pricing & margins | 18% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 26% | 29% |
| Guidance & outlook | 32% | 31% | 27% | 45% | 39% | 30% | 42% | 43% |
| Capacity & supply | 7% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 26% | 18% |
| Capital & financing | · | 6% | · | 5% | · | 4% | · | 4% |
| Competition | 4% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 22% | 4% | 21% | 4% |
| Products & technology | 11% | 25% | 20% | · | 6% | 4% | 16% | 7% |
| Macro & regulation | 25% | 38% | 13% | 50% | 33% | 9% | 5% | 4% |
| Other | 36% | 12% | 50% | 9% | 17% | 13% | 11% | 36% |
| Questions | 28 | 16 | 30 | 22 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 28 |
| How much the CEO talked | 31% | 29% | 31% | 11% | 47% | 53% | 42% | 32% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
A $253m export-controls settlement, and two investigations not described as closed
Since 2022 Applied has disclosed subpoenas about China customer shipments and export-controls compliance from the Department of Justice, the Bureau of Industry and Security and the SEC, plus separate Department of Justice subpoenas about federal award applications. On 11 Feb '26 it settled the BIS inquiry for $253m, paid in Q2 '26, with compliance reporting and a denial order that is suspended and waived three years on if the terms are met. Nothing read says the Department of Justice or SEC matters are resolved, and the company says it cannot estimate a range of loss.
Tier 2 · worsening
Nine insiders sold $120.6M, nobody bought, and no sale is flagged as pre-planned
38 sales by 9 insiders in the year to Q2 '26 and zero purchases by anyone, with 0% of the sales flagged as made under a pre-set 10b5-1 plan. The chief executive sold 78,321 shares on 29 and 30 June at $700.21-736.05, keeping 1,599,843; the product chief 10,000 at $633.53; the chief financial officer 7,500 at $479.25 on 25 August, twelve days after the Q3 call. The stock closed at $478.32 on 28 Sep '26.
Tier 2 · worsening
The 80-100% of free cash flow promise ran at 65% in the year the stock tripled
Distributions were $6,279M against $5,698M of free cash flow in FY25 (110%), then $2,327M against $3,580M over the first nine months of FY26 (65%), with buybacks cut to $337-440M a quarter from $851-1,670M. The average price paid went from $161.54 to $455.43 and $12.8B of authorisation is unused. The Q2 '26 deck replaced the 80-100% line with a trailing five-year 'over 90%' figure; the Q3 '26 deck restored it.
Tier 2 · worsening
Receivables grew half again as fast as revenue, and the build is 5.2x depreciation
Accounts receivable went from $5.19B at the FY25 year end to $7.69B at 26 Jul '26, up 48% while revenue over those three quarters rose 34%, taking days sales outstanding from about 70 to about 76. Capital spending ran at 5.2 times depreciation, with manufacturing capacity 'nearly doubled' and quarterly system capacity to double again by 2028 — a year Applied will not guide.
Tier 3 · stable
Long tenures, and an ownership table two years out of date
The chairman has sat since 2005, two more directors since 2007 and 2008, and KPMG has audited since 2004. Holders are pricing it in the withhold votes: Kevin March drew 10.4% against in 2026 after 3.0%, the chairman 7.2%, and KPMG's ratification 6.9%. Separately the 2026 proxy's 5% table gives BlackRock 9.69% and Vanguard 9.35% from February 2024 filings, while Vanguard Capital Management's own 13G reports 7.49% at 31 Mar '26 and The Vanguard Group reports zero.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| March (Audit, Governance chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 17.8M | 62.1M | 10.4% |
| Iannotti (Chairman)A board seat. | 42.4M | 43.2M | 7.2% |
| KarsnerA board seat. | 45.6M | 37.0M | 6.2% |
| Dickerson (CEO)A board seat. | 4.8M | 8.4M | 1.4% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 47.1M | 41.5M | 7.0% |
| Ratify KPMGThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 40.8M | 46.8M | 6.9% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets and Form 4s, Jul '25-Aug '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insiders | $120.6M | 38 sales by 9 people, and not one purchase |
| Dickerson, chief executive | 78,321 shares | at $700.21-736.05 on 29-30 Jun '26; 1,599,843 held after |
| Hill, chief financial officer | 7,500 shares | at $479.25 on 25 Aug '26, twelve days after the Q3 call |
| Of that, pre-planned | none flagged | the data set marks 0% as made under a pre-set 10b5-1 plan |