RDDTReddit, Inc.

Industry Platform internet Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$144 → $191

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$144 → $191

Show the math

today's multiple of 16× on the guided quarter's adjusted EBITDA at an annual rate, held flat, with revenue compounding at the 47-49% the Q3 '26 guide implies and the guided 45% margin held. Company value plus net cash, divided by a share count that grows at its past pace. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count grows about 1.4% a year as in the half to Jul '26: stock pay net of the buyback	$144	$191196M sh	$272199M sh	$390201M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Enterprise value today — $144 times 192.4M Class A and B shares, less $2.8B of cash and securities, with no debt — over the Q3 '26 adjusted EBITDA guide at an annual rate: 16×. Held, so none of the rise is a re-rating.
The growth. The Q3 '26 revenue guide of $860-870M against $585M a year earlier is 47-49% growth, the only forward rate the letters give. Reddit guides one quarter at a time, so 2027-29 are not guided at all; the rate is carried into them unchanged.
The margin. The guided quarter's adjusted EBITDA over its revenue, 44.8-45.4%, held. The letters report incremental margins near 58%, which would lift it, but management states no target, so none is assumed. Adjusted EBITDA adds back stock pay, about 13% of revenue in Q2 '26.
The shares. No stock is sold. The count grows at the pace of the half to 29 Jul 2026, stock pay less the $1B buyback that began in Q2 '26. About 14.6M shares underlying unvested awards are left out, as for every page.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 letters

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Q4 '24 revenue $385-400M	Q3 '24	$427.7M	Held
Q4 '24 EBITDA $110-125M	Q3 '24	$154.3M	Held
Q2 '26 revenue $715-725M	Q1 '26	$805M	Held
Q2 '26 EBITDA $285-295M	Q1 '26	$343M	Held
Answers in other languages	Q2 '25	five more by Q4 '25	Held
Google traffic hit recovered	Q4 '24	Q1 '25 yes; choppy again Q2 '26	Held
Translation in 30+ countries in 2025	Q3 '24	35 languages; no country count	Late
Answers inside core search	Q1 '25	"progress", then not named in 2026	Late
New data-licensing partners	Q3 '24	ICE in Q4 '24, none since	Late
Q3 '26 revenue $860-870M, EBITDA $385-395M	Q2 '26	reports late Oct '26	Open
$1B buyback	Q4 '25	$240M by Jun '26	Open
Logged-in split dropped in 2026	Q4 '25	still shown; logged-in +7%	Open
100M U.S. daily users	Q1 '26	53.2M, down on Q1	Open
App users up on retention	Q3 '25	retention +50% from a small base	Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, letter by letter

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

UsersPage one since Q3 '24

TranslationOff page one Q4 '25

SearchOff page one Q3 '25

ProfitOff page one Q3 '25

AdsOff page one Q1 '26

ShoppingNew Q1 '25 · Page one since Q1 '26

AI dataFirst seen Q4 '24

LicensingOff page one Q1 '25

on the headline page further in the letter not in the letter▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.