The Ledger

LEEF.CNLeef Brands Inc.

Industry Canada smallcap Updated 27 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

Held at $0.15

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$0.15 → $0.15

Show the math

hold today's enterprise value at about 7× 2025's gross profit, hold revenue at 2025's $34.8M because management gives no revenue figure, and lift the gross margin from management's ~30% for 2025 to the ~50% it expects from its own biomass from 2027. Then take off net debt of $31M — the notes, the unpaid 280E tax and the preferred, less cash — and divide by 305.6M shares growing at last year's pace. In US dollars, at the OTCQB price; the CSE quote is in Canadian dollars. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. From Oct 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $0.05 at 36 months.

0$1.00Today (Oct 2026): $0.15, the market price$0.15TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $0.15 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$0.1512 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $0.15 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$0.1524 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $0.15 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$0.1536 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharescommon shares +74% in the year to Jun '26; warrants and preferred not counted$0.15$0.15612M sh · held$0.151066M sh · held$0.151856M sh · held
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value — common at US$0.172 (OTCQB:LEEEF, 5 Oct '26) plus $10.6M of notes, $22.8M of unpaid Section 280E income tax and $3.1M of 15% preferred, less $5.0M of cash, all at 30 Jun '26 — over 2025's $34.8M revenue at management's ~30% margin: about 7×.
  2. What management gives. "Approximately 30% in 2025 to approximately 50% in H2 2026": a margin, in the April and August 2026 decks. No revenue level or growth rate for any year, while H1 '26 revenue fell 7.9%. So revenue is held at 2025's level — generous — and the 50% applies from 2027. The acreage plan has no price or yield per acre management stands by.
  3. Shares. 305.6M common shares at 6 Aug 2026, growing at the pace of the year to Jun '26 (+74%), which carried a debenture conversion, two unit offerings and an acquisition paid in stock. The 121.7M warrants, mostly at US$0.22, and the preferred's conversion right are left out.
  4. Held. From October 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so every bar is held at today's $0.15; the arithmetic alone gives $0.14 at 12 months, $0.10 at 24 and $0.05 at 36, and $0.05 at the end of 2029.
  5. Going concern. The FY2025 audit opinion and both 2026 10-Qs carry going-concern language. The model assumes the company carries on; that is the assumption the auditor doubts.
  6. What this is not. It is the arithmetic of management's own stated numbers, on a company that has kept none of the targets in its August 2025 deck.

Promises vs. what happened

8 claims · 4 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
New York concentrates from 3Q '25Q1 '25limited; New York left the deckLate
Extraction at 75%, can doubleQ1 '2550%, units changedDropped
Bitcoin treasury as a growth pillarQ1 '25sold and droppedDropped
Full permit planted in 2027Q1 '25open; 187 became 180 acresOpen
~50% gross margin in H2 '26Q4 '25openOpen
Medicare CBD, a $4.5B opportunityQ4 '25open; no revenueOpen
Gross margin over 50% in 2026Q1 '25cut to ~50% in H2; H1 42%Missed
150 acres planted in 2026Q1 '25about 100Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q1
'25Q2
'25Q4
'25Q2
'26

RanchFirst seen Q1 '25

New YorkFirst seen Q1 '25

BitcoinFirst seen Q1 '25

MedicareFirst seen Q4 '25

M&AFirst seen Q4 '25

ExportFirst seen Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Salisbury Canyon Ranch scale-up as the margin engine

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Planting Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Advances in extraction technology 3.Expanding to New York 4.Bitcoin treasury reserve”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.08.25 · p. 12 ·

Salisbury Canyon Ranch scale-up as the margin engine

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Planting Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Expanding to New York 3.Bitcoin treasury reserve”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 09.08.25 · p. 13 ·

Salisbury Canyon Ranch scale-up as the margin engine

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 3.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 04.08.26 · p. 13 ·

Salisbury Canyon Ranch scale-up as the margin engine

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Interstate Commerce and Global Export 3.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 4.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.31.26 · p. 12 ·

New York expansion

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Planting Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Advances in extraction technology 3.Expanding to New York 4.Bitcoin treasury reserve”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.08.25 · p. 12 ·

New York expansion

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Planting Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Expanding to New York 3.Bitcoin treasury reserve”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 09.08.25 · p. 13 ·

New York expansion

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“LEEF Brands’ products are utilized in 55% of New York’s $1.6B market.”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 04.08.26 · p. 12 ·

Bitcoin treasury reserve

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Planting Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Advances in extraction technology 3.Expanding to New York 4.Bitcoin treasury reserve”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.08.25 · p. 12 ·

Bitcoin treasury reserve

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Planting Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Expanding to New York 3.Bitcoin treasury reserve”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 09.08.25 · p. 13 ·

Medicare CBD program

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 3.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 04.08.26 · p. 13 ·

Medicare CBD program

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Interstate Commerce and Global Export 3.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 4.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.31.26 · p. 12 ·

Opportunistic M&A

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 3.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 04.08.26 · p. 13 ·

Opportunistic M&A

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Interstate Commerce and Global Export 3.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 4.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.31.26 · p. 12 ·

Interstate commerce and global export

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“1.Scaling Salisbury Canyon Ranch 2.Interstate Commerce and Global Export 3.Participating in the Medicare CBD Program 4.Opportunistic M&A”

Deck LEEF Brands Presentation 08.31.26 · p. 12 ·

What they keep talking about · 8

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Ranch
First pillar in all four decks, renamed from Planting to Scaling in 2026, while the acreage target fell from 150 to 100+ and the farm's stated output from 3.2M to 1.3M lbs.
New York
A growth pillar in 2025, a market slide in April 2026, gone from the August 2026 deck.
Bitcoin
A growth pillar in both 2025 decks; the coins were sold and the pillar dropped.
Medicare
Arrives after the December 2025 executive order as a $4.5B programme; no revenue attached.
M&A
Himalaya bought in April 2026, from a group a sitting director represented.
Export
New in August 2026 after the rescheduling order; DEA registration applications filed.
New
2026 decks: Medicare CBD, interstate commerce and export, and acquisitions as pillars.
Quiet
Anticipated biomass yield by year, last shown Sep '25; no deck carries an income statement, debt table or the 280E liability.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 1

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

3 calls · Q3 25 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers100%6%·
Growth & sales·19%·
Pricing & margins·12%75%
Guidance & outlook··25%
Capacity & supply100%19%75%
Capital & financing·12%·
Products & technology··50%
Other·62%·
Questions1164
How much the CEO talked77%76%70%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · worsening

    The auditor doubts it continues, and the unpaid tax grows

    Going-concern language in the FY2025 opinion and both 2026 10-Qs. $22.8M of 280E tax owed and unpaid, up $7.5M in six months; the ranch loan was in default until waived in Feb '26.

  2. Tier 1 · worsening

    Seventy-four per cent more shares in a year

    175.4M to 305.6M common; 121.7M warrants; unlimited authorisation, so no vote caps issuance; 81.6M shares registered for resale.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    The founder chairs the board, and insiders deal with the company

    Three of six directors are executives; no compensation committee. A 25% note from the CEO's company, a biomass supplier owned by management, and a director on the seller side of Himalaya who then swapped into the new preferred.

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    Control deficiencies, and a prior-year margin restated down

    Management reports deficiencies in its own controls; Q2 '25 gross margin went from 24% to 17% between the Canadian and SEC filings.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
No meeting result filed with the SEC———

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, 2026SoldNote
No insider sales$0buys only: Wilson, Anderson, Mendola