APHAmphenol Corporation

Industry Electronics mfg Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$74.09 → $81.88

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$74 → $82

Show the math

today's company value grown at the only forward growth rate management puts a number on — the 11% to 15% ten-year sales CAGR its own slide prints — then net debt of $13.4B taken off and the result divided by a share count growing 0.6% a year, as it did in the half to 28 Jul 2026. Today's multiple is held at 19× the operating profit management's guided sales run-rate implies at the margin it last reported. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares +0.6% a year as in the half to Jul '26; there are no converts and no warrants	$74	$822485M sh	$932500M sh	$1052515M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The base. Management guides one quarter. The Q3 2026 guide of $9.3-9.4bn of sales, taken four times, is the annual run-rate it implies and the latest annual number the company stands behind. At the 28.1% adjusted operating margin it reported for the twelve months to June 2026, that sets the multiple at 19× and then cancels out of the later years.
The growth. 2027-29 are not guided — management declined a 2027 view outright on the Q1 2026 call. The range is the two figures its own ten-year sales CAGR slide has printed: 15% in the last two decks, 11% in the 2024 ones. A record, not a promise.
The margin. Held flat. The only margin goal in eight decks is "deliver strong contribution margin" with no number on it, so there is nothing to expand it on. No number, no growth.
Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Today: $74 × 2466.0M shares plus $18.8bn of borrowings less $5.4bn of cash and short-term investments. Net debt is held at $13.4B: nothing here charges the interest on it, and nothing here assumes another acquisition.

Promises vs. what happened

10 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
2025 sales $22.71B, EPS $3.27	Q3 '25	$23.1B and $3.34 — above both ranges	Held
Acquisitions about a third of growth	Q2 '24	38%, 27%, then 45%	Held
CommScope mobile networks closes 1Q-25	Q2 '24	closed in the quarter, as Andrew	Held
A second deal closes 4Q-25	Q2 '25	Trexon, inside the quarter	Held
CommScope CCS closes 1Q-26	Q2 '25	January '26; contribution later raised to $4.6B	Held
Strong contribution margin (no number)	Q2 '24	21.1% to 28.1% operating margin	Held
Strong cash flow in all cycles	Q2 '24	$2.3B to $4.7B free cash flow — no downturn in the window	Held
Scope 1 and 2 emissions -15% by end-'25	Q2 '24	slide removed before the date	Dropped
Renewable energy 50% by 2030	Q2 '24	never reported again	Dropped
No end market above 25% of sales	Q2 '24	the cap was deleted; IT datacom is 40%	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q2
'24Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q2
'26

Headline fourPage one since Q2 '24

IT datacomPage one since Q2 '24

DiversificationFirst seen Q2 '24

AIFirst seen Q2 '24

AcquisitionsFirst seen Q2 '24

Capital returnFirst seen Q2 '24

SustainabilityFirst seen Q2 '24

CablePage one since Q4 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.