ASMLASML Holding N.V.
Industry Semis equipment Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
€1,407 → €1,517
What the podcasts say
2 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 speakers · 2 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
- Bullish
Promises vs. what happened
10 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 sales ~EUR 28B at ~50.6% margin | Q3 '24 | EUR 28.3B at 51.3% | Held |
| Q4 '24 sales EUR 8.8-9.2B | Q3 '24 | EUR 9.26B, above the top | Held |
| 2025 sales EUR 30-35B at 51-53% | Q4 '24 | EUR 32.7B at 52.8% | Held |
| Q3 '25 sales EUR 7.4-7.9B | Q2 '25 | EUR 7.52B, the weakest landing | Held |
| New buyback in Jan '26, after the old one fell short | Q3 '25 | up to EUR 12B to Dec '28 | Held |
| Q3 '26 sales EUR 11.0-12.0B | Q2 '26 | EUR 11.66B at 57.5% | Held |
| 2030 sales EUR 44-60B at 56-60% | Q4 '24 | off the key messages Jul '26 | Dropped |
| About 1,700 positions cut | Q4 '25 | never mentioned again | Dropped |
| 2026 sales EUR 34-39B at 51-53% | Q4 '25 | raised three times, to EUR 44-45B at ~56% | Open |
| High NA ready for volume by end '26 | Q4 '25 | open; Intel qualified it on 18A layers | Open |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
AI demandPage one since Q4 '24
2030 targetOff page one Q2 '26
$1T marketOff page one Q4 '25
High NANew Q4 '24 · Page one since Q2 '26
PackagingFirst seen Q1 '25
GeopoliticsFirst seen Q4 '24
BuybacksFirst seen Q3 '24
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
AI demand
“We see our society going from chips everywhere to AI chips everywhere”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2024 · p. 6 ·
AI demand
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space and is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030”
Deck ASML 2025 first-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
AI demand
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space and is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030”
Deck ASML 2025 second-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
AI demand
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space and is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030”
Deck ASML 2025 third-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
AI demand
“Positive sentiment about sustainability of AI-related demand • Many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand.”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2025 · p. 10 ·
AI demand
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space”
Deck ASML 2026 first-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
AI demand
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space”
Deck ASML 2026 second-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
2030 revenue opportunity of EUR 44-60bn
“Based on these dynamics, we see a 2030 revenue opportunity between”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2024 · p. 10 ·
2030 revenue opportunity of EUR 44-60bn
“Based on different market and lithography intensity scenarios, as presented during our Investor Day in November 2024, we see an opportunity to achieve 2030 annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%”
Deck ASML 2025 first-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
2030 revenue opportunity of EUR 44-60bn
“Based on different market and lithography intensity scenarios, as presented during our Investor Day in November 2024, we see an opportunity to achieve 2030 annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%”
Deck ASML 2025 second-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
2030 revenue opportunity of EUR 44-60bn
“Based on different market and lithography intensity scenarios, as presented during our Investor Day in November 2024, we see an opportunity to achieve 2030 annual revenue between approximately”
Deck ASML 2025 third-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
2030 revenue opportunity of EUR 44-60bn
“In line with our 2024 Capital Markets Day, we expect a 2030 revenue opportunity between”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2025 · p. 10 ·
2030 revenue opportunity of EUR 44-60bn
“Based on different market and lithography intensity scenarios, as presented during our Investor Day in November 2024, we see an opportunity to achieve 2030 annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion, with a gross margin between approximately 56% and 60%”
Deck ASML 2026 first-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
Semiconductor sales above $1 trillion by 2030
“We reconfirm our view calling for global semi sales >$1T by 2030”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2024 · p. 8 ·
Semiconductor sales above $1 trillion by 2030
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space and is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030”
Deck ASML 2025 first-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
Semiconductor sales above $1 trillion by 2030
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space and is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030”
Deck ASML 2025 second-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
Semiconductor sales above $1 trillion by 2030
“The semiconductor industry remains strong, driven by artificial intelligence adoption across an expanding applications space and is expected to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030”
Deck ASML 2025 third-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
High NA EUV
“The first High NA EUV systems are operational at a customer”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2024 · p. 11 ·
High NA EUV
“Shipped 1st EXE:5200B system”
Deck ASML 2025 second-quarter results presentation · p. 7 ·
High NA EUV
“Second generation High NA system now running at a customer site”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2025 · p. 16 ·
High NA EUV
“High NA EUV reaches new readiness milestone with first high-volume Logic product”
Deck ASML 2026 second-quarter results presentation · p. 6 ·
Advanced packaging and 3D integration
“Our flexible and versatile portfolio is well positioned to address all customer needs as we extend holistic lithography to support 3D front-end integration, improve DUV and EUV performance and cost effectiveness and scale EUV technology well into the next decade”
Deck ASML 2025 first-quarter results presentation · p. 4 ·
Advanced packaging and 3D integration
“XT:260 shipped, 1st product serving Advanced Packaging”
Deck ASML 2025 third-quarter results presentation · p. 7 ·
Advanced packaging and 3D integration
“Our lithography technology will also benefit 3D integration, which ASML started to support with XT:260”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2025 · p. 17 ·
Uncertainty from geopolitics and tariffs
“Geopolitical volatility introduces element of uncertainty”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2024 · p. 10 ·
Uncertainty from geopolitics and tariffs
“2 The bandwidth for Q2 2025 gross margin guidance is larger than usual, given the uncertainty around the impact of tariffs.”
Deck ASML 2025 first-quarter results presentation · p. 12 ·
Share buybacks
“In Q3 2024 no shares were purchased”
Deck ASML 2024 third-quarter results presentation · p. 10 ·
Share buybacks
“In Q1 2025 we purchased around 4.0 million shares for a total amount of around €2.7 billion”
Deck ASML 2025 first-quarter results presentation · p. 10 ·
Share buybacks
“ASML does not expect to complete the €12 billion share buyback program in full within the 2022-2025 timeframe. We intend to announce a new share buyback program in January 2026”
Deck ASML 2025 third-quarter results presentation · p. 11 ·
Share buybacks
“ASML announced a new share buyback program of up to €12 billion to be executed by December 31, 2028”
Deck Press conference, fourth-quarter and full-year results 2025 · p. 28 ·
What they keep talking about · 9
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- AI demand
- The first key message in every deck from Q4 '24; by Q4 '25 it was customers' 'notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market'.
- 2030 target
- EUR 44-60bn at 56-60%, on the key-messages slide for five decks after the November 2024 Investor Day. Gone in Q2 '26, when 2026 itself was guided at EUR 43-45bn; a Capital Markets Day on 10 Jun 2027 will reset it.
- $1T market
- Semiconductor sales above $1 trillion by 2030, in the first key message through Q3 '25, cut from it in Q1 '26.
- High NA
- First systems operating at a customer in Q4 '24; the headline of the business summary in Q2 '26, with Intel qualifying it on 18A layers. Volume readiness is promised for the end of 2026.
- Packaging
- Three mentions: 3D integration as a direction in Q1 '25, the XT:260 shipped in Q3 '25, restated in Q4 '25. No revenue figure.
- Geopolitics
- Raised twice, the last a footnote widening the Q2 '25 margin range for tariffs. Not mentioned since, though China was 29.1% of 2025 sales.
- Buybacks
- Purchases fell from about EUR 2.7bn in Q1 '25 to EUR 148m in Q3 '25, when ASML conceded the 2022-2025 programme would not finish; a new EUR 12bn to 2028 followed in January, and EUR 4.1bn was bought in Q3 '26 alone (the release).
- New
- Q2 '26: High NA as the opening item, and the Capital Markets Day date in place of the 2030 numbers.
- Quiet
- Net and EUV bookings, every quarter to a record EUR 13.2bn in Q4 '25, then absent; and the January 2026 plan to cut about 1,700 positions, never mentioned again.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q3 2026 release · 6-K 14 Oct 2026
- Q2 2026 release · 6-K 15 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 6-K 15 Apr 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 6-K 28 Jan 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 6-K 15 Oct 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 6-K 16 Jul 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 6-K 16 Apr 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 6-K 29 Jan 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 6-K 15 Oct 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
6 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q4 25 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 56% | 52% | 40% | 67% | 33% | 36% |
| Growth & sales | 36% | 16% | 12% | 50% | · | 14% |
| Pricing & margins | 12% | 5% | 10% | · | · | 22% |
| Guidance & outlook | 48% | 27% | 12% | 33% | · | 25% |
| Capacity & supply | 24% | 23% | 5% | 25% | · | 25% |
| Capital & financing | 4% | 2% | 2% | 17% | · | 3% |
| Competition | 4% | · | · | · | · | 3% |
| Products & technology | 8% | 5% | 18% | 17% | 33% | 17% |
| Macro & regulation | 28% | 9% | 30% | 33% | 33% | · |
| Other | 8% | 39% | 38% | · | 33% | 39% |
| Questions | 25 | 44 | 40 | 12 | 3 | 36 |
| How much the CEO talked | 46% | 38% | 44% | 77% | 0% | 40% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 23 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · worsening
The sole optics supplier is a related party ASML now lends to interest-free
ASML owns 24.9% of Carl Zeiss SMT Holding and bought EUR 4.4B from it in 2025, up from EUR 3.3B in 2023. At year-end it carried EUR 1.19B of advances, EUR 1.91B of loans and EUR 0.82B of equity in it — EUR 3.9B of stated exposure. The May 2025 restatement made new capex loans interest-free with revenue-linked repayment, and prices follow a formula tied to both companies' results.
Tier 2 · stable
A foundation can halve any bidder's votes; the Supervisory Board largely picks itself
The Stichting Preferente Aandelen ASML holds an option on preference shares that 'would effectively dilute the voting power of our outstanding ordinary shares by one-half', exercisable when its board judges ASML's interests at stake. Under the large-company regime the Supervisory Board's binding nominations can be overturned only by a majority holding a third of the capital, and it appoints the Board of Management.
Tier 3 · worsening
Bookings stopped being reported as the capacity build began
Net and EUV bookings, given every quarter to a record EUR 13.2B in Q4 '25, are absent from both 2026 decks. Management declined on three calls to say how much of next year is on order, while planning 30% more Low-NA EUV and immersion capacity for 2027. The 2030 target came off the key messages in July.
Tier 3 · stable
Managers own about EUR 70M of a EUR 590B company; pay ran at 1.4 times target
The five Board of Management members held 45,254 shares at year-end; the CEO 7,040, 5.77 times salary against a guideline of four. 2025 pay was EUR 24.3M for the five, EUR 7.0M for the CEO, with incentives paying 142.5% and 137.4% of target. 6.0% voted against the pay report in 2026, 7.2% in 2025.
Tier 3 · live
EUR 1.3B into Mistral AI, with the CFO on its strategic committee
About 11% of Mistral AI on a fully diluted basis, paid in Q3 '25 — the largest purchase outside lithography in five years. The CFO joined the investee's strategic committee the same year.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remuneration reportExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 7.24% | 5.99% | 5.99% |
| Number of shares for managementStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much. | 5.77% | 3.62% | 3.62% |
| Kelly (vice chair, pay chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | 3.13% | 3.13% |
| Discharge, Board of ManagementSigning off the year. A formal approval of the year's accounts or of the managers' conduct (a discharge), which makes it harder to hold them liable for that year later. | 1.96% | 1.76% | 1.76% |
| SteegenA board seat. | — | 0.66% | 0.66% |
| Exclude pre-emption rightsFirst refusal on new shares. Pre-emption rights let existing shareholders buy any new shares first, so their stake cannot be shrunk without their say. Dropping them lets the company sell new shares to anyone. A no keeps that protection. | 1.54% | 0.60% | 0.60% |
| Loh (new)A board seat. | — | 0.21% | 0.21% |
| Pay policy (2025 only)Executive pay. | 8.57% | — | — |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Forms 4 and the AFM register, Oct '25-Sep '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Forms 4 | none | a foreign private issuer's officers file none |
| AFM managers' register | no rows | the full export read on 2 Oct '26 has no ASML entry; not confirmed either way |
| Board of Management holdings | 45,254 shares | about EUR 70M at EUR 1,537, at 31 Dec '25 |