ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.

Industry Space defense Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$39.79 → $73.67

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$40 → $74

Show the math

today's enterprise value per satellite, held, on the roughly 45 satellites management has dated for the turn of 2026, with the constellation growing by 38-72 satellites a year from 2027: the 2026 target's own pace at the low end, the six a month management once planned at the high end. AST guides no margin and no revenue past 2026 with a date on it, so the satellite count is the only thing that moves the value. Company value less net debt, divided by a share count that grows at the first half of 2026's pace. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count grows about 8% a year as in H1 '26: converts settled in stock, warrants, stock pay	$40	$74426M sh	$111459M sh	$143495M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The unit. Satellites in orbit. The decks dated 45-60 by end-2026 from Q2 '25 to Q4 '25, cut it to about 45 during 2026 in Q1 '26 and moved that to early 2027 in Q2 '26. About 45 is taken as the count at the end of the base year, two months ahead of the latest date. Enterprise value today ($40 times 389.2M Class A, B and C shares, plus debt, less cash) over those 45 is held.
The build. 38 a year at the low end: the 2026 target itself, about 45 in orbit from 7 at the end of 2025. 72 a year at the high end: the Q1 '25 deck's six satellites a month, which the CEO repeated as the plan on the Q2 '25 call. AST finished two Block 2 satellites in 2025 against that target. The funded plan is "over 100" satellites with no date; the high end passes 100 in 2027.
What is missing. No margin, no price per subscriber and no revenue per satellite in any deck. Revenue is guided at $150-200M for 2026, and the President's goal of approaching $1B in 2027 became, on the Q2 '26 call, the goal for "our first year of commercial service" with no year. Holding value per satellite assumes each new one is worth what the market pays for one today.
The shares. The count grows as it did in the half to 30 Jun '26, +3.8%, which included 4.8M warrant shares and 6.3M from settling 2032 converts in stock. The half before added 34.9M Class A. Convertible notes, including the $1.15B issued in July 2026 (an effective $149.20 with its capped call), options and unvested awards are not in today's count of 389.2M.
Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Net debt today is $684M, held where it is although AST spends cash on capex every quarter; spending it would lower every figure here.

Promises vs. what happened

15 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
H2 '25 revenue $50-75M	Q1 '25	about $69M	Held
Over 400,000 sq ft by end '25	Q2 '25	over 500,000	Held
BlueBird 8-10 in mid-June '26	Q1 '26	six up within 50 days	Held
Vodafone joint venture	Q4 '24	SatCo formed; no revenue yet	Held
L-band and S-band spectrum	Q4 '24	both closed	Held
BlueBird 6 ships Aug '25	Q2 '25	about a month late	Late
40 satellites of microns by early '26	Q2 '25	23 arrays; 40 never reported	Late
Gateways ~$10M a quarter	Q1 '25	never reported again	Dropped
ASIC flies in Q1 '26	Q3 '25	date dropped	Dropped
2026 revenue $150-200M	Q1 '26	$46.3M in H1	Open
Six satellites a month in 2025	Q1 '25	two finished in 2025	Missed
Five launches by Q1 '26	Q2 '25	one reached orbit	Missed
45-60 in orbit by end '26	Q2 '25	13 in Aug '26; ~45 moved to early '27	Missed
US service by end '25	Q2 '25	a non-commercial beta in 2026	Missed
BlueBird 7 up in late '25	Q3 '25	lost on launch, written off	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

SatellitesPage one since Q3 '24

CarriersPage one since Q2 '26

GovernmentOff page one Q4 '24

SpectrumPage one since Q2 '26

CashOff page one Q2 '26

RevenuePage one since Q3 '25

ServiceOff page one Q2 '26

SpeedsOff page one Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.