BABAAlibaba Group Holding Limited
Industry Platform internet Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$99.64 → $120
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIDC profitable quarter in FY26 | Q4 '24 call | Sep '25 qtr, then losses again | Held |
| MaaS ARR over RMB10B by Jun '26 | Q1 '26 call | over RMB16B by Aug '26 | Held |
| AI + Cloud as the engine | Q1 '25 | cloud growth 18% to 45% | Held |
| Own AI chips at scale | Q4 '25 | 100,000+ deployed; no revenue given | Held |
| Exit Sun Art and Intime | Q4 '24 | done by Q1 '25 | Held |
| Korea JV with Shinsegae | Q4 '24 | formed; no figures | Held |
| Grow 88VIP | Q3 '24 | 46M to 62M, then not reported | Held |
| Quick commerce: narrow the loss | Q3 '25 | said improved; loss never stated | Held |
| Merchants spend more (CMR) | Q3 '24 | +12% to -7% reported | Late |
| Subsidies tied to ad spend | Q1 '26 | like-for-like CMR +8% to +1% | Late |
| Cainiao logistics for others | Q4 '24 | segment dropped, no figures | Dropped |
| US$22B buyback to Mar '27 | Q3 '24 | ~US$3.2B used; shares sold instead | Open |
| Loss-makers break even in 1-2 yrs | Q4 '24 call | All others: RMB3.3B loss, Jun '26 | Open |
| RMB380B AI capex in 3 years | Q2 '25 call | RMB190B+ in 17 months; 'on the small side' | Open |
| RMB1T quick-commerce GMV by FY28 | Q4 '25 call | GMV never reported | Open |
| US$100B external cloud by 2030 | Q4 '25 call | about US$21B a year now | Open |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
AI revenuePage one since Q4 '24
Take rateOff page one Q2 '26
Quick commercePage one since Q2 '25
AIDCOff page one Q3 '25
RestructuringNew Q4 '24 · Page one since Q2 '26
BuybacksFirst seen Q3 '24
QwenFirst seen Q3 '24
T-HeadFirst seen Q4 '25
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“AI-related product revenue grew at triple-digits year-over-year for the fifth consecutive quarter.”
Deck September Quarter 2024 Results · p. 11 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“Cloud revenue growth accelerated to double digits at 13%year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the sixth consecutive quarter.”
Deck December Quarter 2024 Results · p. 3 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 18% year-over-year, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter.”
Deck March Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“•Our cloud business delivered accelerated growth, as segment revenue and revenue from external customersboth grew 26%, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digitgrowth for the eighthconsecutive quarter.”
Deck June Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“•Our Cloud business segment revenue and revenue from external customers accelerated to 34% and 29% respectively, with AI-related product revenue delivering another quarter oftriple-digit growth.”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“•AI-related product revenue delivered the tenthconsecutive quarter oftriple-digit growth.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“On AI+Cloud Businesses, •Cloud continued to accelerate. External revenue grew40%, with AI revenue delivering the eleventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth.”
Deck March Quarter 2026 Results · p. 3 ·
AI-related product revenue, triple-digit growth
“•AI revenue accounted for 35% of external cloudrevenue, reaching RMB12.4 billion”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 3 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“TaobaoandTmallGrouphasmade steady progress in the monetization strategy this quarter, with an accelerated CMR growthof2%.”
Deck September Quarter 2024 Results · p. 3 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“OnTaobao and Tmall businesses,CMR growth accelerated to 9% year-over-year, driven by growth in online GMV and improved monetization.”
Deck December Quarter 2024 Results · p. 3 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“On Taobao and Tmall businesses, CMR grew 12% year-over-year, primarily driven by the improvement of take rate.”
Deck March Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“Customer management revenue grew 10% year-over-year to RMB89,252 million (US$12,459 million) during the quarter, primarily driven by the improvement of take rate, which benefited from the addition of software service fees in September last year and increasing penetration of Quanzhantui.”
Deck June Quarter 2025 Results · p. 9 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“Our e-commerce business continued to deliver solid revenue growth, with customer management revenue up 10%.”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“The slow-down in revenue growth was primarily due to weaker transaction activities and phase-out of the impact of software service fee implementation.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 8 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“On Consumption Businesses, •CMR grew 8% on a like-for-like basis.”
Deck March Quarter 2026 Results · p. 3 ·
Customer management revenue and take rate
“Excluding the contra revenue impact from the new business development program, customer management revenue on a like-for-like basis would have grown by 1%year-over-year.”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 10 ·
Quick commerce (Taobao Instant Commerce)
“Our quick commerce businessachieved key milestones, while contributing to the 25%year-over-year growth in theTaobao app monthly active consumers in the first three weeks of August.”
Deck June Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Quick commerce (Taobao Instant Commerce)
“•On consumption, • Our quick commerce continued to scale significantly during the quarter, and we executed our plan to grow the scale of our quick commerce business, improve user experience and narrow UE loss.”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Quick commerce (Taobao Instant Commerce)
“On Consumption Businesses, •Quick commerce continued to improve unit economics and increase average order value month-over-month this quarter.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Quick commerce (Taobao Instant Commerce)
“•Quick commercecontinued to improve unit economics and average order value quarter-over-quarter.”
Deck March Quarter 2026 Results · p. 3 ·
Quick commerce (Taobao Instant Commerce)
“•Taobao Instant Commerce continued to improve UEsequentially while scaling.”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 3 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“AliExpress and Trendyol platforms continued their investment to increase mindshare in select markets in Europe and the Gulf region.”
Deck September Quarter 2024 Results · p. 3 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“AIDC maintained its rapid growth momentum, primarily driven by strong cross-border business performance.”
Deck December Quarter 2024 Results · p. 3 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“AIDC maintained its rapid growth momentum, primarily driven by strong performance in cross-border businesses.”
Deck March Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“•AIDCdelivered solid progress, approaching breakeven while sustaining strong growth momentum.”
Deck June Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“A combination of logistics optimization and investment efficiency enhancement resulted in AIDC’s adjusted EBITA profit of RMB162 million (US$23 million) for the quarter ended”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 10 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group adjusted EBITA was a loss of RMB2,016 million (US$288 million) in this quarter, primarily due to significant improvement in AliExpress’ operating efficiency, and enhanced efficiencies across various businesses.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 9 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“During the quarter, AIDC narrowed loss significantly year-over-year, approaching break-even, driven by a combination of logistics optimization and operating efficiency.”
Deck March Quarter 2026 Results · p. 9 ·
International commerce (AIDC) path to profit
“•AliExpressachievedoperatingprofit.”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 9 ·
Focus on the core (AI + Cloud and consumption) and restructuring
“These moves reflect our strategic shift to streamline operations and focus on our core businesses.”
Deck December Quarter 2024 Results · p. 4 ·
Focus on the core (AI + Cloud and consumption) and restructuring
“Our strategy is to remain focused on our core businesses and continue to drive AI +”
Deck March Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Focus on the core (AI + Cloud and consumption) and restructuring
“•We are embarking on a new chapter of entrepreneurship by investing in two strategic pillars of consumption and AI + Cloud.”
Deck June Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Focus on the core (AI + Cloud and consumption) and restructuring
“•We are continuing our focus and discipline on AI+Cloud and consumption, and we see strong momentum from these strategies with gains in technology, market share, customers and user engagement.”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Focus on the core (AI + Cloud and consumption) and restructuring
“•We remain focused on AI + Cloud and Consumption businesses.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 3 ·
Focus on the core (AI + Cloud and consumption) and restructuring
“We undertook strategic combinations ofcertainbusinessesto form Alibaba E-commerce”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 3 ·
Share repurchases and dividends
“•During the quarter ended September 30, 2024, we repurchased a total of 414 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 52 million”
Deck September Quarter 2024 Results · p. 4 ·
Share repurchases and dividends
“•During the quarter, we repurchased a total of 119 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 15 million ADSs) for a total of US$1.3 billion,resultingina 0.6% net reduction in our outstanding shares after accounting for shares issued under our ESOPcompared toSeptember30,2024.”
Deck December Quarter 2024 Results · p. 4 ·
Share repurchases and dividends
“Our board of directors has approved a two-part dividend in the total amount of US$0.25 per ordinary share or US$2.00 per ADS comprised of (i) an annual regular cash dividend for fiscal year 2025 in the amount of US$0.13125 per ordinary share or US$1.05 per”
Deck March Quarter 2025 Results · p. 4 ·
Share repurchases and dividends
“During the quarter ended June 30, 2025, we repurchased a total of 56 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 7 million ADSs) for a total of US$815million.”
Deck June Quarter 2025 Results · p. 6 ·
Share repurchases and dividends
“•During the quarter ended September 30, 2025, we repurchased a total of 17 million ordinary shares (equivalent to approximately 2 million ADSs) for a total of US$253 million.”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 6 ·
Share repurchases and dividends
“During the quarter ended June 30, 2026, we repurchased a total of 13.4 millionordinary shares (equivalent to approximately 1.7 million”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 6 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“Qwen (Tongyi Qianwen) Large Model Family Upgrades: We introduced significant upgrades across the Qwen large model family, including the release of the open-source Qwen 2.5 series, which has become one of the leading models in the global open-source ecosystem, with the flagship Qwen 2.5-72B demonstrating strong results across benchmarks, outperforming industry players.”
Machine translation · show original
“Qwen (通义千问) Large Model Family Upgrades: We introduced significant upgrades across the Qwen large model family, including the release of the open-source Qwen 2.5 series, which has become one of the leading models in the global open-source ecosystem, with the flagship Qwen 2.5-72B demonstrating strong results across benchmarks, outperforming industry players.”
Deck September Quarter 2024 Results · p. 11 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“In January 2025, we open-sourced Qwen2.5-VL, our next-generation multi-modal model, and launched our flagship MoE-based model Qwen2.5-Max.”
Deck December Quarter 2024 Results · p. 11 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“In April, we launched the Qwen3 series, a new generation of hybrid reasoning models that combine the capabilities of fast, simple responses and deeper chain-of-thought reasoning into a single model.”
Deck March Quarter 2025 Results · p. 11 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“As of October 31, 2025, more than 180,000 derivative models had been developed based on the Qwen family on Hugging Face – more than double that of the second player.”
Deck September Quarter 2025 Results · p. 11 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“In February, consumer-facing Qwen has surpassed 300 million monthly active users across all platforms.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 11 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“In March, we introduced Qwen3.6-Plus which delivered significant all-round performance gains, with particularly notable improvements in coding and agentic programming.”
Deck March Quarter 2026 Results · p. 11 ·
Qwen models and the Qwen app
“In August, we launched our flagship foundation model Qwen3.8-Max within three months of its prior version, and we opened its model weights with 2.4 trillion parameters.”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 12 ·
T-Head proprietary AI chips
“T-Head Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (“T-Head”), our chip design subsidiary, has brought its proprietary GPU into production at scale, supporting end-to-end AI workloads from training and fine-tuning to inference.”
Deck December Quarter 2025 Results · p. 11 ·
T-Head proprietary AI chips
“Over 100,000 Zhenwu PPUs have been deployed on Alibaba Cloud’s public cloud platform, with more than 30 leading automakers and autonomous driving companies leveraging the chips for intelligent driving R&D. The”
Deck March Quarter 2026 Results · p. 11 ·
T-Head proprietary AI chips
“The Zhenwu chips, including Zhenwu M890, the latest AI processor, have achieved broad commercial adoption via Alibaba Cloud services from more than 650 external customers across over 20 industries, including autonomous driving, Internet, and financial services.”
Deck June Quarter 2026 Results · p. 11 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- AI revenue
- On every headline slide as triple-digit growth with no amount until Q1 '26; RMB12.4B and 35% of external cloud revenue by Q2 '26.
- Take rate
- CMR up 9-12% while the software fee lapped in; off the headline when it fell to 1%, back in Q1 '26 only like-for-like.
- Quick commerce
- On every headline since Q2 '25; unit economics in words only, never the loss or the GMV.
- AIDC
- Growth, then breakeven; off the headline after its one profitable quarter (Sep '25), merged into E-commerce in Q2 '26.
- Restructuring
- Sun Art and Intime sold; segments recast in Q2 '25 and again in Q2 '26.
- Buybacks
- A slide of its own to Q3 '25; none in Q4 '25 or Q1 '26, when no shares were bought; back in Q2 '26 beside capex.
- Qwen
- Inside the cloud slide to Q3 '25, its own slide from Q4 '25, its own loss-making segment from Q2 '26.
- T-Head
- First in Q4 '25 with 'meaningful' supply; folded into AI Cloud and Compute Services in Q2 '26.
- New
- Q1 '26: AI revenue in yuan. Q2 '26: AI revenue run rate, Zhenwu chip customers, AliExpress profit.
- Quiet
- 88VIP members not given after Q1 '26. Cainiao, Local Services and AIDC no longer reported alone. Quanzhantui not named after Q3 '25.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 2026 release · 6-K 20 Aug 2026
- Q1 2026 release · filed copy 13 May 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 6-K 19 Mar 2026
- Q3 2025 release · filed copy 25 Nov 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 6-K 29 Aug 2025
- Q1 2025 release · filed copy 15 May 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 6-K 20 Feb 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 6-K 15 Nov 2024
- Q2 2024 release · 6-K 15 Aug 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
7 calls · Q2 25 – Q4 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 | Q4 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 22% | 50% | 33% | · | 33% | 50% | 29% |
| Growth & sales | 44% | 50% | 33% | 57% | 33% | 83% | 57% |
| Pricing & margins | 33% | 62% | 50% | 29% | 33% | 50% | 57% |
| Guidance & outlook | 22% | 25% | 17% | 14% | 33% | 33% | 29% |
| Capacity & supply | 11% | 25% | 17% | 14% | 17% | · | · |
| Capital & financing | 22% | 62% | 17% | 43% | 33% | · | 29% |
| Competition | 11% | 38% | 50% | 29% | 17% | 33% | 29% |
| Products & technology | 56% | 50% | 33% | 43% | 17% | 33% | 57% |
| Macro & regulation | 22% | 12% | · | 14% | 17% | 17% | 14% |
| Other | · | · | 17% | · | · | · | · |
| Questions | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 20 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
A Cayman holding company that controls the China business by contract
Licensed China businesses run through VIEs held by partnership members and managers. The Pentagon listed Alibaba as a Chinese military company in Feb '26, then withdrew the list; chip export controls and an EU case against AliExpress are open.
Tier 2 · stable
An 18-member partnership can take a board majority; only a 95% vote removes the right
It names four of ten directors today and can appoint more at will. Ma and Tsai never face election. The company voted the uninstructed ADSs, about 19% of shares present, for every item.
Tier 2 · worsening
3.7% of the company sold without a vote, after buybacks stopped
HK$80B of new shares at HK$112.70 on 23 Aug '26, to non-US buyers only, under a 10% general mandate. US$1.0B bought back at about the same price in the year to Mar '26, none since Sep '25.
Tier 2 · worsening
Ant Group: a 33% investee, the payment processor, and a fast-growing cloud customer
RMB19.1B of cloud revenue from Ant in FY2026, up 72%; related parties about 18% of cloud revenue. Alibaba paid Alipay RMB18.0B for payments.
Tier 2 · stable
Over a quarter of votes against the auditor, two years running
PwC Zhong Tian, suspended and fined in China over Evergrande in 2024, kept on; 26.8% against in 2025 and 28.7% in 2026.
Accounting rule changes 7 in 6 quarters
- Q1 '25Net cash counts only cash and treasury investments unrestricted for withdrawal and use
- Q2 '25Taobao and Tmall, Ele.me and Fliggy combined into Alibaba China E-commerce Group
- Q2 '25New Quick commerce revenue line, reported net of subsidies booked as contra revenue
- Q1 '26Merchant subsidies tied to marketing spend moved from sales and marketing expense to contra-CMR
- Q2 '26China e-commerce, AIDC, Freshippo and part of Cainiao reported as one Alibaba E-commerce Group
- Q2 '26Cloud segment becomes AI Cloud and Compute Services and now includes T-Head
- Q2 '26Quick commerce revenue now includes Freshippo and Tmall Supermarket on-demand delivery
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reappoint PwC Zhong TianThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 3,511M | 3,589M | 28.7% |
| Maggie Wu (partnership)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | 316M | 2.5% |
| Issue 10% more sharesPermission to create more shares. The company may then sell new shares later, for deals or to raise cash. New shares dilute the existing ones, so each shareholder owns a smaller share of the company. A no says shareholders want that door kept narrower. | 290M | 283M | 2.3% |
| Weijian ShanA board seat. | — | 214M | 1.7% |
| Kabir MisraA board seat. | — | 193M | 1.5% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Form 4s, Mar–Oct 2026 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Jiang, Chief People Officer | $12.4M | $12.0M of it on 30 Sep, about 16% of her direct holding |
| Evans, President | $8.5M | Rule 144 sale; 28,000 shares left held directly |
| Xu, CFO | $4.4M | all withheld for tax on vesting |
| Yu, General Counsel | $0.5M | tax withholding |