FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.

Industry Energy storage Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$5.59 → $6.77

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$6 → $7

Show the math

hold today's enterprise value multiple — about 3× the gross profit the last stated fiscal 2026 guide implied — and grow revenue at the 22-30% a year management prints on its own order book, with no margin expansion, because none is guided. Then take off net debt of $53M and divide by 184.6M shares growing at the pace of the last half. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesClass A plus Class B-1, up 0.7% a year in the half to Jul '26; the $400M of converts are not in this line	$6	$7186M sh	$9188M sh	$11189M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Today's enterprise value over the gross profit the guided year implied — the August 2026 deck's $2,900-3,100M of revenue at the 11-13% adjusted gross margin management guided in November 2025. That is about 3×. On the revenue the 2026-09-16 8-K actually guided, about $2.4bn, and the roughly 7% margin the first nine months delivered, the same enterprise value is nearer 9x.
Why the cut does not move the chart. In this model the value of each year is today's enterprise value compounded at the growth rate: the revenue base cancels out of it and sets only the multiple above. So the chart would be the same had the base been the lower, newer figure. The September guidance is not quotable here because that 8-K is not in the deck archive, and the rule is that every input is located in a document, never typed.
The unguided years. Management has guided no year after fiscal 2026 and has promised a fiscal 2027 plan with the fiscal 2026 results. The stated driver used instead is the pair of compound rates on its own Q3 '26 slide: 22% a year for backlog, $4.5bn to $6.4bn, and 30% for pipeline, $20.9bn to $33.1bn. The research record's reading of the 10-Q gives a similar step — 48-53% of the $6.4bn backlog is expected as revenue inside twelve months.
Per share. Company value less net debt, divided by the share count. Net debt is $53M today: $392M of converts at carrying value against $339M of cash. The share count is economic — 143.2M Class A plus 41.4M Class B-1, which is exchangeable one-for-one — and grows at 0.7% a year, the pace of the half to 31 Jul 2026. The $400M of 2.25% converts due 2030 stay out of the count because their $21.35 conversion price is above every figure here.
What this is not. It is the arithmetic of management's own stated numbers, on a company that has missed four annual guides in two years.

Promises vs. what happened

16 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
FY25 adjusted gross margin 10-15%	Q4 '24	13.7%, a record	Held
ARR about $145M by end FY25	Q4 '24	$148M — never cut	Held
Smartstack's first contract delivers in FY26	Q2 '25	operating by May '26	Held
US module and enclosure lines at capacity by end '25	Q3 '25	about $300M below plan	Late
Domestic suppliers OBBBA-compliant by end '25	Q3 '25	stated compliant May '26	Late
First hyperscaler order in Q3 '26	Q2 '26	$550M in July, one month late	Late
FY26 adjusted gross margin 11-13%	Q1 '26	left the slide; 9M ran about 7%	Dropped
ARR about $180M by end FY26	Q4 '25	$163M at Q3; held unchanged	Open
Q4 '26 order intake above $1.44B; liquidity about $900M	Q3 '26	open — $863M at Jun '26	Open
FY25 revenue $3.6-4.4B, EBITDA $160-200M	Q4 '24	$2.26B — cut three times	Missed
FY25 adjusted EBITDA $180M midpoint	Q4 '24	$19.5M, 89% below	Missed
Tariffs: minimal, about $10M	Q1 '25	a $700M revenue cut, 3 months later	Missed
FY26 revenue growth 30%+	Q1 '25	guided flat, then cut; line never repeated	Missed
95% of FY25 revenue covered by backlog	Q2 '25	landed at 84% of the midpoint	Missed
FY26 revenue $3.2-3.6B, fully backlog-covered	Q4 '25	cut to $2.9-3.1B, then about $2.4B	Missed
FY26 adjusted EBITDA $40-60M	Q4 '25	to -$30M/+$10M, then about -$200M	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26

Domestic contentOff page one Q4 '25

GuidancePage one since Q1 '26

BacklogPage one since Q2 '25

TariffsOff page one Q4 '25

OBBBAOff page one Q4 '25

Data centresPage one since Q3 '26

SmartstackOff page one Q2 '25

Order intakeNew Q4 '25 · Page one since Q2 '26

MarginsOff page one Q3 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.