JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.

Industry Banks Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$332 → $363

What the podcasts say

1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 show

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

Bullish
Trade of the Week: long JPMorgan against short Deutsche Bank, equal dollarsPatrick Ceresna · MacroVoices · 22 Oct 2026

All 1 statement on the Podcast Heatmap

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$332 → $363

Show the math

today's market value of the equity over tangible common equity at June 2026, about 2.9×, held on each later year's tangible book. Tangible book compounds at the 17% through-the-cycle return on tangible common equity management targets, less the share of earnings paid out (the middle of the 54–82% net payout the eight decks reported). The total is divided by a share count shrinking at the pace between the January and June 2026 covers. A bank's borrowing is inside its book value, so no debt is subtracted and no cash added. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares −3.4% a year, as between the January and June '26 covers: buybacks net of stock pay	$332	$3632540M sh	$3962452M sh	$4322369M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The measure. Tangible common equity of $301.3B at 30 June 2026, from the Q2 10-Q's own reconciliation: common equity of $353.6B less goodwill and intangibles plus certain deferred tax liabilities, $113.35 a share. The Q3 '26 deck puts tangible book at $112.64 a share at 30 September but gives no dollar total; the June figure stands until the Q3 10-Q. JPMorgan guides no revenue, earnings or book-value number, so book is the only measure management's one return target can be applied to, and at $332 the stock is 2.9× it.
The return. 17% a year on tangible common equity: the through-the-cycle target the CEO restated on the Q2 '25 call ("If you're just going to earn 17%, you're a bond"). Reported ROTCE was 22% in 2024, 20% in 2025, 26% in the first half of 2026 and 20% in Q3 '26; management calls that above the cycle, so the target, not the current return, is used. Nothing above 17% is counted.
The payout. No payout is guided. The eight decks reported a last-twelve-months net payout (dividends plus net buybacks) of 54% at Q4 '24, 62%, 71%, 73%, 82%, 82%, 73% and 61% at Q3 '26; the range is 54–82% and its middle, 68%, is used, so about a third of earnings stays in book. The $50B buyback authorised in July '25 had $33.4B left at December.
Shares. 2658.2M, the Q2 '26 10-Q cover (30 June 2026); one class, no convertibles, no warrants; unvested RSUs and PSUs are left out, as is the $21.0B of preferred stock, which is not in tangible common equity. The count shrinks at the pace between the 10-K cover (2,697.0M on 31 January 2026) and the Q2 cover, about 3.4% a year, which buybacks at the 2025 rate ($31.6B) would roughly keep up.
Arithmetic. company value ÷ shares. Company value is today's market value of the equity grown at 17% × (1 − 68%) a year from 2027; it is held at today's through the end of 2026, the base year, because nothing management has guided for 2026 changes book value beyond what the year's earnings and payout do. No debt is subtracted: for a bank the borrowing is inside book value, and the kind values the equity. $368 at the end of 2027, $439 at the end of 2029.
What is left out. The 2026 guides (NII ~$106.2B, expense ~$108.6B, Card charge-offs ~3.2%, as the Q3 '26 deck implies them) do not enter: they describe 2026, which the model holds at today's value; nor does the 2027 central case of ~$107B NII ex. Markets, which is not a book-value number. The Apple Card portfolio arriving around December 2027, the ~$40B of excess capital the CEO says will be deployed, and any change in the multiple (three times tangible book is the price of 20% returns, not 17%).

Promises vs. what happened

12 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Guides set to be beaten, and beaten. Net interest income and credit came in better every year; expense is the line that moves up after the January guide, and one capital promise went quiet.

Promise	Made in	What happened
2025 NII ~$94B	Q4 '24	$95.9B, after three raises	Held
2025 NII ex. Markets ~$90B	Q4 '24	$92.6B	Held
2025 card charge-offs ~3.6%	Q4 '24	3.58% → 3.14%; guide cut to ~3.3%	Held
17% ROTCE through the cycle	Q2 '25 call	20% in '25, 20% in Q3 '26	Held
"Not buying back stock today"	Q1 '26 call	$664mm in Q3, from $8.1B in Q1	Held
2025 expense ~$95B	Q4 '24	raised to ~$95.5B; $95.3B	Late
Apple Card RWA ~$110B → ~$30B "near term"	Q4 '25	never mentioned again	Dropped
2026 NII ex. Markets ~$95B	Q3 '25	~$97.2B implied in Oct	Open
2026 NII ~$103B	Q4 '25	~$106.2B implied in Oct	Open
2026 expense ~$105B	Q4 '25	~$108.6B implied in Oct	Open
2026 card charge-offs ~3.4%	Q4 '25	cut to ~3.2%; 2.91% in Q3	Open
2027 NII ex. Markets ~$107B	Q3 '26	open	Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26

ROTCEPage one since Q4 '24

CET1Page one since Q4 '24

PayoutPage one since Q4 '24

GuidesFirst seen Q4 '24

GrowthPage one since Q4 '25

ItemsPage one since Q2 '26

CreditFirst seen Q4 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.