KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Industry Space defense Updated 6 Oct 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$38.68 → $40.91
Promises vs. what happened
13 claims · 8 releasesEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 revenue $1,125-1,150M | Q3 '24 | $1,136M | Held |
| FY24 operating cash $40-50M | Q3 '24 | $49.7M | Held |
| FY25 revenue $1,260-1,285M | Q4 '24 | $1,347M | Held |
| FY25 adj. EBITDA $112-118M | Q4 '24 | $119.9M | Held |
| 2026 growth 13-15% | Q4 '24 | raised to 18-23% | Open |
| FY26 revenue $1,595-1,675M | Q4 '25 | raised to $1,750-1,810M | Open |
| 2027 growth 18-23% | Q3 '25 | not restated in 2026 | Open |
| +100bp margin, '26 and '27 | Q3 '25 | open | Open |
| 3,000 jet engines in '27 | Q2 '26 | open | Open |
| FY25 operating cash $50-60M | Q4 '24 | -$42.1M | Missed |
| FY26 operating income $55-60M | Q4 '25 | cut to $16-22M | Missed |
| FY26 operating cash $50-60M | Q4 '25 | cut to $30-50M | Missed |
| 40 Valkyries a year by end '27 | Q4 '25 | moved to 2028 | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, release by releaseThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
RevenuePage one since Q3 '24
DronesPage one since Q3 '25
KGSPage one since Q3 '25
Book-to-billPage one since Q3 '24
Raised guidePage one since Q2 '25
TargetsOff page one Q4 '25
CapacityFirst seen Q4 '25
AcquisitionsOff page one Q2 '26
on the headline page further in the release not in the release▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Revenue growth, organic and total
“Third Quarter 2024 Revenues of $275.9 Million Compared with Third Quarter 2023 Revenues of $274.6 Million”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“Full Year 2024 Revenues of $1.136 Billion Reflect 9.6 Percent Growth and 9.1 Percent Organic Growth, Respectively, Over Full Year 2023 Revenues of $1.037 Billion”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“First Quarter 2025 Revenues of $302.6 Million Reflect 9.2 Percent Growth and 7.4 Percent Organic Growth Over First Quarter 2024 Revenues of $277.2 Million”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“Second Quarter 2025 Revenues of $351.5 Million Reflect 17.1 Percent Growth and 15.2 Percent Organic Growth Over Second Quarter 2024 Revenues of $300.1 Million”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“Third Quarter 2025 Revenues of $347.6 Million Reflect 26.0 Percent Growth and 23.7 Percent Organic Growth Over Third Quarter 2024 Revenues of $275.9 Million”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“Fourth Quarter 2025 Revenues of $345.1 Million Reflect 21.9 Percent Growth and 20.0 Percent Organic Growth Over Fourth Quarter 2024 Revenues of $283.1 Million”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“First Quarter 2026 Revenues of $371.0 Million Reflect 22.6 Percent Growth and 15.8 Percent Organic Growth Over First Quarter 2025 Revenues of $302.6 Million”
Revenue growth, organic and total
“Second Quarter 2026 Revenues of $458.8 Million Reflect 19.1 Percent Organic Growth and 30.5 Percent Growth Over Second Quarter 2025 Revenues of $351.5 Million”
Unmanned Systems
“Third Quarter 2024 Unmanned Systems Revenues of $64.2 Million Compared with Third Quarter 2023 Revenues of $56.7 Million”
Unmanned Systems
“Full Year 2024 Unmanned Systems Revenues of $270.5 Million Reflect 27.5 Percent Growth and 25.1 Percent Organic Growth Over Full Year 2023 Revenues of $212.2 Million”
Unmanned Systems
“Unmanned Systems Third Quarter 2025 Revenues of $87.2 Million Reflect 35.8 Percent Organic Growth Over Third Quarter 2024 Revenues of $64.2 Million”
Unmanned Systems
“Unmanned Systems Fourth Quarter 2025 Revenues of $68.5 Million Reflect 12.1 Percent Organic Growth Over Fourth Quarter 2024 Revenues of $61.1 Million”
Unmanned Systems
“Unmanned Systems First Quarter 2026 Revenues of $82.6 Million Reflect 30.9 Percent Organic Growth Over First Quarter 2025 Revenues of $63.1 Million”
Unmanned Systems
“Unmanned Systems Second Quarter 2026 Revenues of $79.1 Million Reflect 8.1 Percent Organic Growth Over Second Quarter 2025 Revenues of $73.2 Million”
Government Solutions
“Full Year 2024 KGS Revenues of $865.8 Million Reflect 5.0 Percent Organic Growth of $40.9 Million Over Full Year 2023 Revenues of $824.9 Million”
Government Solutions
“Kratos Government Solutions Third Quarter 2025 Revenues of $260.4 Million Reflect 20.0 Percent Organic Growth Over Third Quarter 2024 Revenues of $211.7 Million”
Government Solutions
“Kratos Government Solutions Fourth Quarter 2025 Revenues of $276.6 Million Reflect 22.2 Percent Organic Growth Over Fourth Quarter 2024 Revenues of $222.0 Million”
Government Solutions
“Kratos Government Solutions First Quarter 2026 Revenues of $288.4 Million Reflect 11.8 Percent Organic Growth Over First Quarter 2025 Revenues of $239.5 Million”
Government Solutions
“Kratos Government Solutions Second Quarter 2026 Revenues of $379.7 Million Reflect 22.0 Percent Organic Growth and 36.4 Percent Growth Over Second Quarter 2025 Revenues of $278.3 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“Third Quarter 2024 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.0 to 1 and Last Twelve Months Ended September 29, 2024”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“Fourth Quarter 2024 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.5 to 1 and Bookings of $434.2 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“First Quarter 2025 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.2 to 1 and Bookings of $365.6 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“Second Quarter 2025 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 0.7 to 1 and Bookings of $257.0 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“Third Quarter 2025 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.2 to 1 and Bookings of $414.1 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“Fourth Quarter 2025 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.3 to 1 and Bookings of $438.3 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“First Quarter 2026 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.6 to 1 and Bookings of $605.2 Million”
Book-to-bill and bookings
“Second Quarter 2026 Consolidated Book to Bill Ratio of 1.1 to 1 and Bookings of $492.2 Million”
Guidance affirmed or raised
“Affirms Full Year 2024 Financial Forecast”
Guidance affirmed or raised
“Increases 2025 Full Year Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Guidance”
Guidance affirmed or raised
“Increased Full Year 2026 Organic Revenue Growth Rate Forecast To 15 Percent to 20 Percent Above 2025 Forecast Full Year Revenue with Projected 100BP”
Guidance affirmed or raised
“Fiscal 2026 Base Case Revenue Forecast of $1.595 Billion to $1.675 Billion and Adjusted EBITDA Forecast of $157.0 million to $167.0 million or 9.9% to 10.0% of Revenue, including Recently Closed Nomad Global Communication Solutions Acquisition”
Guidance affirmed or raised
“Kratos Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases Fiscal FY26 Financial Guidance”
Guidance affirmed or raised
“Increases Full Year 2026 Revenue Guidance to $1.750 to $1.810 Billion, With Forecasted Organic Revenue Growth of Approximately 18 Percent to 23 Percent as Compared to Full Year 2025”
Multi-year growth targets
“2025 Financial Forecast Includes 10 Percent Organic Revenue Growth and 2026 Initial Revenue Growth Forecast of 13 to 15 Percent over 2025 Forecast Based on Recent Program Awards”
Multi-year growth targets
“Provides Preliminary 2027 Organic Revenue Growth Rate Target of 18 Percent to 23 Percent Above 2026 Revenue Forecast with Projected Additional 100BP Increase in Adjusted EBITDA Margin Over 2026”
Multi-year growth targets
“We continue to expect Kratos’ Base Case full year 2027 organic revenue growth to be approximately 18 percent to 23 percent above the full year fiscal 2026 revenue forecast we provided today.”
Deck Kratos Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Current Guidance Range ·
Multi-year growth targets
“We continue to expect our 2027 Adjusted EBITDA margin rates to increase an additional 100 bps above forecast 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin rates, when we provide full year 2027 guidance later this year.”
Deck Kratos Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Estimated Funding for Investments ·
Capacity build (Valkyrie, engines, rocket motors)
“As a result of our progress and based upon expected future customer contractually required delivery schedules, we will be executing a plan in 2026 to increase our rate of production up to approximately 40 Valkyries annually by the end of 2027.””
Capacity build (Valkyrie, engines, rocket motors)
“Funding Investment in Prometheus | 50 | 55”
Deck Kratos Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Estimated Funding for Investments ·
Capacity build (Valkyrie, engines, rocket motors)
“Kratos’ revised cash flow guidance also assumes certain investments in our Rocket Systems and Unmanned Systems businesses, related to the procurement of rocket motors and related systems, and has been updated to include the working capital requirements related to the procurement of the materials and equipment in the third and fourth quarters to ramp our production of jet engines to 3,000 in 2027 to address the deman…”
Deck Kratos Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · Financial Guidance ·
Acquisitions in the guide
“Fiscal 2026 Base Case Revenue Forecast of $1.595 Billion to $1.675 Billion and Adjusted EBITDA Forecast of $157.0 million to $167.0 million or 9.9% to 10.0% of Revenue, including Recently Closed Nomad Global Communication Solutions Acquisition”
Acquisitions in the guide
“Fiscal 2026 Revenue Forecast of $1.700 Billion to $1.760 Billion and Adjusted EBITDA Forecast of $170.0 Million to $176.0 Million, including Recently Closed Orbit Technologies, Ltd. Acquisition”
What they keep talking about · 6
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Revenue
- First line of all eight releases; from Q2 '26 organic growth comes before total growth.
- Drones
- Second line until Q2 '26, when Government Solutions moved ahead of it on 8.1% organic drone growth.
- Raised guide
- Six of eight headlines affirm or raise a revenue or EBITDA guide; none names the cash-flow guide, which was cut three years running.
- Targets
- 2026 growth set at 13-15% in Q4 '24 and raised; the 2027 target of 18-23% appears in Q3 and Q4 '25, then is absent from both 2026 releases.
- New
- Q2 '26: 3,000 small jet engines in 2027, and drone spend booked as working capital rather than capex.
- Quiet
- The 40-Valkyries-a-year date moved from end '27 to the beginning of 2028 in August '26.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 23% | 14% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 29% | 18% | 14% |
| Growth & sales | 27% | 10% | 17% | 19% | 31% | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Pricing & margins | 5% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 21% | 4% | 12% | 18% |
| Guidance & outlook | 36% | 10% | 35% | 22% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 43% |
| Capacity & supply | 14% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 10% | · | 12% | 29% |
| Capital & financing | · | 10% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 14% | 18% | 11% |
| Competition | · | · | 13% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 4% |
| Products & technology | 14% | 12% | 17% | 19% | 28% | 18% | 24% | 21% |
| Macro & regulation | 5% | 5% | 4% | · | 3% | · | 3% | · |
| Other | 32% | 50% | 26% | 25% | 31% | 27% | 24% | 21% |
| Questions | 22 | 42 | 23 | 36 | 29 | 49 | 34 | 28 |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · worsening
The build is paid for with new shares
$2.2B of stock sold since 2024; shares +24% in two years; authorised shares raised to 245M in May '26 with an automatic shelf live.
Tier 2 · stable
Pay vests on adjusted EBITDA growth
Half the equity vests per 10% adjusted EBITDA growth, no per-share hurdle; CEO pay $10.8M in 2025, from $4.6M in 2023.
Tier 2 · stable
Insiders sold $137.9M and bought nothing
16 insiders; the CEO 1.1M shares for $82.7M; the chair $7.7M, $5.6M of it outside a plan.
Tier 3 · stable
Two partners from one firm chair audit and pay
Anderson (audit) and Jarvis (compensation), both of Cedar Grove Partners, directors since 1997; the chair since 2009; the CFO on the board.
Accounting rule changes 1 in 1 quarters
- Q2 '26Some drone development spend booked as working capital (work in process), not capex
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoglund (chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 8.9M | 14.5M | 10.1% |
| ZegartA board seat. | 18.8M | 14.0M | 9.7% |
| JarvisA board seat. | 11.3M | 11.8M | 8.2% |
| Officer exculpationShielding executives from lawsuits. A change to the company's rulebook so that officers cannot be sued personally by shareholders for careless (not dishonest) decisions. Shareholders give up some of their power to hold executives to account; a no keeps it. | — | 16.3M | 11.4% |
| Pay (advisory)Executive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 9.4M | 4.1M | 2.8% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Form 4s, Oct 2025–Oct 2026 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| DeMarco, CEO | $82.7M | 1.1M shares under a plan, Dec '25 to Aug '26 |
| Fendley, Unmanned Systems | $8.1M | $2.0M outside a plan |
| Lund, CFO and director | $8.1M | under a plan |
| Hoglund, chair | $7.7M | $5.6M outside a plan |