The Ledger

NLSTNetlist, Inc.

Industry IP licensors Updated 27 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$5.86 → $7.31

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$6 → $7

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Management guides one quarter of product revenue and no margin, so the product business is held at its Q2 '26 gross profit. What it has put numbers on is its licences: Samsung's quarterly fee was known when this price was set and is in today's base; Micron's, $30M a quarter from Q4 '26, was signed the day after and is the one line added. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. From Oct 2028 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $6 at 36 months.

0$2$4$6$8$10Today (Oct 2026): $6, the market price$6TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $7 a share if management delivers$712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $8 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$824 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $8 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$836 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares growing at their past pace+14% a year, Jun '24 to Jun '26: registered directs, an equity line and warrant exercises$6$7427M sh$8486M sh · held$8554M sh · held
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. Today's base. Q2 '26 gross profit of $22.9M a quarter, held because the CFO expects Q3 product revenue 'similar to the second quarter', plus Samsung's quarterly fee at its cap of about $27.5M less counsel's 7.5%: about $193M a year. The cap is the conservative end: a bigger base is a smaller multiple.
  2. Today's multiple. Netlist's value on 5 Oct, the day before the Micron licence was announced, is about 11× that base. It is held.
  3. The line added. Micron pays $30M a quarter, fixed, from Q4 '26 to Q3 '31. A licence fee has no cost of sales; counsel's share on it is not disclosed, so the range runs from Samsung's 7.5% to none.
  4. Left out. The ~$200M Samsung upfront (due in August, not yet in a filing), any further licence (SK hynix's 2021 licence is past five years; its status was not given when asked), and any change in the shortage margin on resale.
  5. Shares. 359.6M at the 10-Q date plus Micron's 10M; 56.9M warrants at about $1.24 and the 2026 plan's awards are not counted, and the past-pace row carries their exercise. Arithmetic: (company value − net debt) ÷ shares; net debt today -$38M.
  6. Held. From October 2028 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $6 at 36 months.

Promises vs. what happened

10 claims · 8 releases

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Second Samsung trialQ3 '24wonHeld
Positioned for growth, '25Q4 '24+28% salesHeld
New HBM and DDR5 suitsQ2 '25both licensedHeld
AI memory through products and IPQ1 '26+163% salesHeld
$303M Samsung award final, Q3 '24Q3 '24settled as a licenceLate
$866M of verdictsQ4 '24none paid as damagesLate
Own products for HBM and DDR5Q1 '2594% resaleLate
$445M Micron award finalQ2 '25$600M licence, Oct '26Late
ITC to stop Samsung importsQ3 '25settled firstLate
R&D on MRDIMM and CXLQ4 '25~$1M a quarterLate

What they’re pitching

the headline page, release by release

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

RevenuePage one since Q4 '25

Gross profitPage one since Q4 '25

Cost cutsOff page one Q4 '25

ProfitPage one since Q3 '25

VerdictsOff page one Q4 '24

EnforcementFirst seen Q2 '25

AI memoryFirst seen Q4 '24

Balance sheetOff page one Q4 '24

on the headline page further in the release not in the release▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q3 '24 · headline page

“| Net sales for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 140% to $40.2 million compared to $16.7 million from the same quarter one year ago.”

Deck Netlist Q3 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q4 '24 · headline page

“| Net sales for the full year of 2024 increased by 113% to $147.1 million compared to $69.2 million from the same period one year ago.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q1 '25 · headline page

“| Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $29.0 million.”

Deck Netlist Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q2 '25 · headline page

“| Revenue for the second quarter of 2025 increased by 44%, or $12.7 million, compared to the first quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Net sales for fourth quarter of 2025 were $75.7 million, an increase of 79% compared to third quarter of 2025 and an increase of 121% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q1 '26 · headline page

“| Net sales for first quarter of 2026 were $104.9 million, an increase of 262% compared to the first quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Revenue growth as the headline number

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Net sales for the second quarter of 2026 were $109.8 million, an increase of 163% compared to the second quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Gross profit

Q4 '24 · headline page

“| Gross profit for the full year of 2024 increased by 21% to $2.9 million compared to $2.4 million from the same period one year ago.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Gross profit

Q4 '25 · headline page

“| Gross profit for fourth quarter of 2025 was $6.9 million, an increase of 2,620% compared to the same period last year. Full year gross profit was $11.4 million, an increase of 297% compared to last year.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Gross profit

Q1 '26 · headline page

“| Gross profit for first quarter of 2026 was $22.4 million, an increase of 1,622% compared to the first quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Gross profit

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Gross profit for the second quarter of 2026 was $22.9 million, an increase of 1,544% compared to the second quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Cost cuts

Q1 '25 · headline page

“| Operating Expenses for the first quarter decreased by 39% to $11.1 million compared to $18.1 million for last year’s first quarter.”

Deck Netlist Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Cost cuts

Q2 '25 · headline page

“| Operating Expenses for second quarter of 2025 decreased by 31% or $3.4 million compared to the first quarter of 2025 and by 52% or $8.2 million year over year.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Cost cuts

Q3 '25 · headline page

“| Operating Expenses for the nine months ended September 27, 2025 decreased by 38% or $17.0 million compared to the same prior year period.”

Deck Netlist Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Profit or loss

Q3 '25 · headline page

“| Net Loss for the nine months ended September 27, 2025 improved by 45% compared to the same prior year period.”

Deck Netlist Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Profit or loss

Q4 '25 · headline page

“| Net Loss for the fourth quarter of 2025 improved by 82% compared to the same period last year. Net Loss for the full year improved by 54% compared to the same period last year.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Profit or loss

Q1 '26 · headline page

“| Net income for the first quarter of 2026 was $8.6 million, compared to net loss of $9.5 million in the first quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Profit or loss

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Net income for the second quarter of 2026 was $1.4 million, compared to net loss of $(6.1) million in the second quarter of 2025.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Verdicts and damages awards

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Secured order finalizing $303 million damages award against Samsung.”

Deck Netlist Q3 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Verdicts and damages awards

Q4 '24 · further in the release

“and Samsung, bringing total damages awarded for the willful infringement of its patents to $866 million. As the market for advanced memory”

Deck Netlist Q4 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Verdicts and damages awards

Q2 '25 · further in the release

“patents. During the quarter, we also secured an order finalizing the district court’s $445 million damages award against Micron”.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

New DDR5 and HBM patents and enforcement

Q2 '25 · further in the release

“to protect our intellectual property, filing multiple legal actions against Samsung and Micron for infringement of our new HBM and DDR5 patents.”

Deck Netlist Q2 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

New DDR5 and HBM patents and enforcement

Q3 '25 · further in the release

“we took action before the U.S. International Trade Commission seeking remedial orders that direct U.S. Customs and Border Protection to”

Deck Netlist Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

New DDR5 and HBM patents and enforcement

Q4 '25 · further in the release

“of our patents and expanded enforcement actions covering DDR5 and HBM technologies. We continue to invest in R&D programs for next-generation”

Deck Netlist Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

New DDR5 and HBM patents and enforcement

Q2 '26 · further in the release

“of next generation AI memory technologies and defend our IP portfolio against unauthorized use.””

Deck Netlist Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Positioned for AI memory through products and IP

Q4 '24 · further in the release

“continues to expand, Netlist remains well-positioned for growth,” said Chief Executive Officer, C.K. Hong.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Positioned for AI memory through products and IP

Q1 '25 · further in the release

“Netlist is well-positioned to capitalize on this through new product development and its intellectual property portfolio,” said Chief Executive”

Deck Netlist Q1 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Positioned for AI memory through products and IP

Q3 '25 · further in the release

““Netlist is well positioned to capitalize on the transition to next generation memory through its product offering and its IP assets including new patents covering DDR5 and HBM.”

Deck Netlist Q3 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Positioned for AI memory through products and IP

Q4 '25 · further in the release

“memory technologies including MRDIMM and CXL NVDIMM. We enter 2026 well positioned to capitalize on this progress.””

Deck Netlist Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Positioned for AI memory through products and IP

Q1 '26 · further in the release

““We remain well positioned to capitalize on AI memory technologies - DDR5 and HBM - through our products and IP assets.””

Deck Netlist Q1 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Positioned for AI memory through products and IP

Q2 '26 · further in the release

“revenue growth and improved profitability,” said Chief Executive Officer, C.K. Hong. “We continue to drive the development of next generation AI memory technologies and defend our IP portfolio against unauthorized use.””

Deck Netlist Q2 2026 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Balance sheet strengthened

Q3 '24 · headline page

“| Raised $15 million subsequent to the end of the quarter strengthening Netlist’s balance sheet.”

Deck Netlist Q3 2024 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

Balance sheet strengthened

Q4 '25 · further in the release

“were $42.1 million, total assets were $49.5 million, working capital deficit was ($6.4) million, and stockholders’ deficit was ($5.2) million.”

Deck Netlist Q4 2025 results release (8-K Ex. 99.1) · EXHIBIT 99.1 ·

What they keep talking about · 6

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Revenue
First line of seven of eight releases; the one exception, Q3 '25, had flat sales and led with cost cuts.
Verdicts
The $303M, $866M and $445M awards led 2024 and mid-2025; no 2026 release names a verdict, and none was paid as damages.
Enforcement
New HBM and DDR5 suits from Q2 '25; they ended in the Samsung (Aug '26) and Micron (Oct '26) licences.
AI memory
'Well positioned' in six releases, through products and IP; the products were 4-6% of 2026 sales.
New
Gross profit and net income as headlines from Q4 '25, once there was profit to show.
Quiet
The cash and stockholders' deficit sentence ran to Q4 '25 and is absent from both 2026 releases; the resale share of sales has never been in one.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 5

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers20%····80%··
Growth & sales·25%···20%33%75%
Pricing & margins·25%17%25%·20%··
Guidance & outlook··17%·40%20%·25%
Capacity & supply··17%··40%33%25%
Competition···25%····
Products & technology20%25%50%·40%40%33%50%
Macro & regulation····20%···
Other60%75%50%50%20%20%33%25%
Questions54645534
How much the CEO talked100%100%100%100%91%89%94%100%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    An audit committee of one, a board of three

    The founder-CEO chairs a board of three; Jun Cho is the audit committee's sole member; no compensation or nominating committee. Disclosure controls not effective at 27 Jun '26. Up to $1.35B of licence money is due over five years.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    Stock issued without a vote

    A 33.6M-share plan adopted without shareholder approval; 4.0M performance RSUs to the CEO from it; 56.9M warrants; $73.7M of an equity line unused. Shares +78% since January 2021.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    Family and former consultants

    The CEO's brother runs sales and operations ($250K salary, RSUs). Both outside directors were paid consultants first; one is still described as the company's IP consultant.

  4. Tier 3 · stable

    Few votes, an anti-takeover plan, no exchange

    Say-on-pay every three years though the 2025 plurality chose one; a 15% rights plan to Apr '27; OTCQB quotation.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Hong (CEO, chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.4.9M1.8M2.0%
WelcherA board seat.3.5M2.7M3.0%
ChoA board seat.4.1M2.8M3.1%
Pay (advisory)Executive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.9.2M——
Auditor (MGO)The auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.1.4M0.4M0.2%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct 2025–Oct 2026SoldNote
Sasaki, CFO$1.04Munder a plan; $690K on 17 Aug, two weeks after the Samsung deal
Hong, CEO$0.87M$109K of it outside a plan, Jun '26
Welcher, director$0.14Munder a plan
Cho, director$0.06Munder a plan