NVDANVIDIA Corporation
Industry AI semis Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028
$211 → $365
What the podcasts say
20 bullish · 6 bearish · 24 speakers · 9 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
- Bullish
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Bullish
- Bullish
- Bearish
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 revenue $37.5B plus or minus 2% | Q3 '25 | $39.3B, 4.8% above | Held |
| Q4 '25 Blackwell above 'several $B' | Q3 '25 | $11B, the fastest ramp they have had | Held |
| Mid-70s gross margin once Blackwell ramps | Q3 '25 | met fifteen months later, 75.0% | Held |
| Gaming grows strongly in Q1 '26 | Q4 '25 | $3.8B, up 48% q/q | Held |
| Blackwell Ultra ships later in Q2 '26 | Q1 '26 | tens of billions that quarter | Held |
| ProViz back to growth in Q2 '26 | Q1 '26 | $601M, up 18% q/q | Held |
| Vera Rubin ships H2 '26, from Q3 '27 | Q1 '27 | shipped early August | Held |
| Q2 '27 revenue $91.0B plus or minus 2% | Q1 '27 | $96.2B, the widest beat of the eight | Held |
| Software run-rate over $2B by end FY25 | Q3 '25 | never reported again | Dropped |
| Sovereign AI over $20B in FY26 | Q2 '26 | never reported again | Dropped |
| RTX PRO a multi-billion-dollar line | Q2 '26 | absent from the four decks since | Dropped |
| H20 $2-5B in Q3 '26 if politics ease | Q2 '26 | China excluded from every outlook since | Dropped |
| $0.5T of Blackwell and Rubin to end '26 | Q3 '26 | about $358B shown in the decks; open | Open |
| Q3 '27 revenue $108B at a 74.0% margin | Q2 '27 | open; the first margin guide under 75% | Open |
| FY26 opex growth in the mid-30s% | Q4 '25 | raised to high-30s, then not given again | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26Q1
'27Q2
'27
BlackwellOff page one Q2 '27
Cost per tokenPage one since Q4 '26
NetworkingOff page one Q1 '27
Market sizeOff page one Q4 '26
RubinPage one since Q1 '27
ChinaFirst seen Q1 '26
GamingOff page one Q3 '26
BuybacksPage one since Q2 '27
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Blackwell ramp
“Blackwell in full production after successfully executed mask change”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY25 · p. 5 ·
Blackwell ramp
“Delivered $11B of Blackwell revenue; fastest product ramp in company’s history”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY25 · p. 5 ·
Blackwell ramp
“Data Center revenue driven by the continued Blackwell ramp – fastest in our company’s history”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Blackwell ramp
“NVIDIA’s Blackwell platform reached record levels with 17% sequential growth”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Blackwell ramp
“Blackwell Ultra ramping across all customer categories”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY26 · p. 3 ·
Blackwell ramp
“Sustained strength in Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra Strong adoption of NVLink, Spectrum-X, and InfiniBand”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY26 · p. 4 ·
Blackwell ramp
“Blackwell adopted and deployed by every major hyperscaler, every cloud provider, and every model builder”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY27 · p. 3 ·
Blackwell ramp
“Continued strong demand for our Blackwell architecture”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY27 · p. 4 ·
Inference and cost per token
“NVIDIA is the largest inference platform in the world”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY25 · p. 7 ·
Inference and cost per token
“Inference demand is accelerating, driven by test-time scaling and new reasoning models”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY25 · p. 5 ·
Inference and cost per token
“Seeing a sharp jump in inference demand; Microsoft, Google, OpenAI all seeing a step-function leap in token generation”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Inference and cost per token
“NVIDIA is the most performant, lowest cost/token inference provider with the largest installed base”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY26 · p. 3 ·
Inference and cost per token
“NVIDIA AI infrastructure delivers the lowest token cost and highest token throughput as shown in latest MLPerf and InferenceX benchmarks”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY27 · p. 3 ·
Inference and cost per token
“NVIDIA AI infrastructure delivers the best economics and is becoming an investable asset class – fueling continued AI factory spend”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY27 · p. 3 ·
Networking
“NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet for AI revenue increased over 3x year-on-year, and our pipeline continues to build”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY25 · p. 7 ·
Networking
“Spectrum-X and NVLink switch revenue increased and represents a major new growth vector Data Center”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY25 · p. 7 ·
Networking
“Networking grew 64% q/q”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY26 · p. 7 ·
Networking
“Networking was a record, up 46% q/q and 98% y/y, with strong demand across Spectrum-X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY26 · p. 7 ·
Networking
“NVIDIA now the world’s largest networking business”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY26 · p. 3 ·
Networking
“NVIDIA is the world’s largest networking business”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY26 · p. 3 ·
Size of the AI build-out
“Have line of sight to AI factory projects requiring tens of gigawatts of NVIDIA AI infrastructure in the not-too-distant future”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Size of the AI build-out
“We’re at the beginning of an industrial revolution; see $3 to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Size of the AI build-out
“Three platform shifts – accelerated computing, powerful AI models, and agentic applications – on the path to $3 to $4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure build”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY26 · p. 3 ·
Next architecture (Rubin)
“Visibility into $0.5 trillion of Blackwell and Rubin revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar 2026”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY26 · p. 3 ·
Next architecture (Rubin)
“Vera Rubin on track for the second half of this year, starting in Q3”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY27 · p. 3 ·
Next architecture (Rubin)
“Commenced production shipments of Vera Rubin in early August – CPU, LPX, and STX are new growth drivers”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY27 · p. 3 ·
China and export controls
“Outlook reflects a loss in H20 revenue of ~$8.0 billion”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY26 · p. 12 ·
China and export controls
“Does not assume any H20 shipments to China”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY26 · p. 12 ·
China and export controls
“*Outlook does not assume any Data Center compute revenue from China”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY26 · p. 11 ·
China and export controls
“*Outlook does not assume any Data Center compute revenue from China”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY27 · p. 11 ·
China and export controls
“*Outlook does not assume any Data Center compute revenue from China”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY27 · p. 11 ·
Gaming
“Gaming end demand is strong while channel inventory remains healthy”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY25 · p. 5 ·
Gaming
“Gaming end demand remained strong; shipments impacted by supply constraints”
Deck Investor Presentation Q4 FY25 · p. 5 ·
Gaming
“Record Gaming revenue due to Blackwell adoption by gamers, creatives, and AI enthusiasts”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Gaming
“Record Gaming revenue due to Blackwell adoption by gamers, creatives, and AI enthusiasts”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY26 · p. 5 ·
Capital return
“Utilized cash of $11.2B towards shareholder returns, including”
Deck Investor Presentation Q3 FY25 · p. 11 ·
Capital return
“Returned a record ~$20B to our shareholders, while executing strategic investments.”
Deck Investor Presentation Q1 FY27 · p. 8 ·
Capital return
“Returned a record ~$26B to shareholders, while executing strategic investments in R&D, critical supply and capacity, and our ecosystem”
Deck Investor Presentation Q2 FY27 · p. 3 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Blackwell
- On the headline page of six of the eight decks. By Q2 '27 it is one line under the Data Center chart.
- Cost per token
- From demand for inference, to the lowest cost per token, to "an investable asset class" — the argument moved from the chip to the return on it.
- Networking
- Grew into the headline of Q3 and Q4 '26 as "the world's largest networking business", then vanished when Data Center was re-split into Hyperscale and ACIE.
- Market size
- $3-4 trillion "by the end of the decade" in Q2 '26 became $3-4 trillion a year one quarter later, and has not been repeated since.
- Rubin
- Three decks: the $0.5 trillion visibility number, then on track for H2 '26, then shipping in early August. The only multi-year number the decks carry.
- China
- Never on a headline page. An $8bn hole in one outlook, then a footnote on every outlook since Q4 '26: no Data Center compute revenue from China assumed.
- Gaming
- Headline material in the first four decks, gone from Q3 '26 with the segment slides.
- Buybacks
- A cash-uses line until Q1 '27, then the headline page in Q2 '27 at a record ~$26bn — after the dividend went from $0.01 to $0.25.
- New
- Q2 '27: free cash flow in place of operating cash flow, Hyperscale and ACIE in place of compute and networking, and stock-based pay inside the non-GAAP margin.
- Quiet
- The $2bn software run-rate, the $20bn of sovereign revenue, RTX PRO and the $2-5bn of H20 were each stated once and never mentioned again.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 FY2027 release · 8-K 26 Aug 2026
- Q1 FY2027 release · 8-K 20 May 2026
- Q4 FY2026 release · 8-K 25 Feb 2026
- Q3 FY2026 release · 8-K 19 Nov 2025
- Q2 FY2026 release · 8-K 27 Aug 2025
- Q1 FY2026 release · 8-K 28 May 2025
- Q4 FY2025 release · 8-K 26 Feb 2025
- Q3 FY2025 release · 8-K 20 Nov 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 25 – Q2 27The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 | Q4 26 | Q1 27 | Q2 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 36% | 62% | 80% | 25% | 88% | 42% | · | 62% |
| Growth & sales | 36% | 12% | 40% | 38% | 38% | 50% | 38% | 62% |
| Pricing & margins | 27% | 25% | · | · | 25% | 17% | · | 12% |
| Guidance & outlook | 36% | 50% | 80% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 25% | 38% |
| Capacity & supply | 55% | 12% | 60% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 12% | 25% |
| Capital & financing | · | · | · | · | 38% | 33% | 12% | 12% |
| Competition | · | · | · | 12% | · | · | 25% | 25% |
| Products & technology | 45% | 62% | 80% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Macro & regulation | 18% | 25% | 60% | 25% | 12% | · | 12% | · |
| Other | · | · | · | · | · | · | 12% | · |
| Questions | 11 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 8 |
| How much the CEO talked | 76% | 87% | 87% | 84% | 89% | 87% | 95% | 95% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · live
Owners have voted twice to remove the supermajority provisions; the board will not ask again
In 2025 the board itself proposed striking them out and 16.02bn shares voted for against 152.6m — 99.1% of the votes cast — and it failed anyway, because a charter amendment needs 66.7% of all outstanding shares and 3.21bn were broker non-votes. In 2026 a shareholder proposal asked for the same thing, the board recommended against it, and it passed 14.59bn to 2.21bn. The proxy's reason for opposing: addressing repetitive proposals on the topic "would not be an effective use of time, resources, and attention".
Tier 2 · stable
The real takeover defence is a contract with Microsoft, not the charter
The FY2026 10-K's own risk factor says that if someone offers to buy at least 30% of the stock, Microsoft may have first and last rights of refusal under the legacy Xbox agreement. It is not in the charter, is not voted on, and cannot be removed by shareholders. Microsoft is also a customer, a competitor in silicon, and the former employer of the new field-operations chief.
Tier 2 · worsening
In two quarters the balance sheet acquired $25bn of debt and $108.5bn of guarantees
Long-term debt went from $7.5bn to $33.4bn between January and July 2026 on the June note sale, and the indenture does not limit further issuance. Alongside it sit $108.5bn of maximum guarantee exposure — $105bn of it credit support on leases at SB Energy's Ohio campus that are let to OpenAI for twenty years — and $36bn of NVIDIA's own six-year cloud-service commitments to customers who bought its hardware. None of that is in the net debt the page uses.
Tier 3 · worsening
Three directors left in twelve months and the accounting chief was replaced
Ellen Ochoa resigned in July 2025, Robert Burgess died in December 2025, and Persis Drell resigned from the board and the Compensation Committee on 2026-01-20, effective immediately and with no reason given, seven months after a 99.0% re-election. The chief accounting officer retired in May 2026 and was replaced by Intel's; the twenty-one-year head of field operations retired in August 2026 and was replaced by Microsoft's.
Tier 3 · stable
Six hundred and eight insider sales, and not one purchase
Over the year to 2026q2 the SEC insider data sets record 608 sales by 13 insiders totalling $2.24bn and zero purchases by anyone, with about 63% of the sales under pre-set 10b5-1 plans. Net selling is about 0.04% of market value. Fiscal 2026 pay was $36.3m for the chief executive and about $14.3m each for the other named officers.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neal, the lead directorA board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 890.5M | 2,234.6M | 13.3% |
| Jones (audit, nominating)A board seat. | 1,198.7M | 1,569.8M | 9.3% |
| Seawell (audit chair)A board seat. | 1,016.7M | 1,495.7M | 8.9% |
| Huang (CEO)A board seat. | 247.1M | 166.1M | 1.0% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 1,320.6M | 1,071.2M | 6.4% |
| End the supermajority ruleLower the bar to change the rules. Some changes need a supermajority, often two-thirds or more of all shares, which lets a minority block them. A simple-majority rule gives ordinary shareholders more say. | 152.6M | 2,210.3M | 13.2% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insiders | $2,242.6M | 608 sales by 13 people, and not one purchase |
| Of that, pre-planned | 63.4% | under pre-set 10b5-1 plans |
| Against it, the buyback | $93.4B | repurchased FY22-FY26, every tranche below today's price |