The Ledger

PAMPampa Energia S.A.

Industry LatAm concessions Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$79.50 → $97.37

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$80 → $97

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares, per ADS (25 shares). Management budgets about $1B of 2026 EBITDA and has put numbers on one new line: Rincón de Aranda's oil plateau of 45 kbpd, valued here at Q2 '26's oil price and the oil and gas segment's margin. Everything else is held at the 2026 budget: no number, no growth. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$25$50$75$100$125Today (Oct 2026): $80, the market price$80TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $97 a share if management delivers$9712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $102 a share if management delivers$10224 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $102 a share if management delivers$10236 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares at their past pace, per ADSno new shares in H1 '26 and no converts; net debt held at June's level$80$9754M sh$10254M sh$10254M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. Base. The 2026 budget: about $1B of adjusted EBITDA for the IFRS perimeter, $600M from oil and gas and $400M from power (Q1 '26 call). Pampa's value today is about 6× that, and the multiple is held.
  2. Oil plateau. 45 kbpd at Rincón de Aranda (Q2 '26 deck), less the 22–28 kbpd 2026 already carries: 17–23 kbpd added. Priced at $58.8 a barrel (Q2 '26, with the hedge), up to 8% more once RIGI waives the export duty, at the oil and gas segment's 42–53% EBITDA margin: $150–280M more EBITDA a year.
  3. Timing. The model counts the whole plateau from 2027. One slide dates it May 2027, another Q4 '27, so 2027 is the generous year; the 12-month figure carries part of the plateau and the 24-month figure, October 2028, all of it.
  4. Shares. 53.6M ADS-equivalents: 1,340M common shares with treasury shares left out. No new shares in H1 '26 and no convertibles; the 2025 buyback shares were cancelled in April.
  5. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares, with net debt held at $1.3B (June '26). The build's capex is not charged, nor the $2.7B urea plant's.

Promises vs. what happened

15 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Frac fleet by Feb '25Q3 '24in placeHeld
8 kbpd by May '25Q4 '2416 kbpd by AugHeld
20 kbpd by Dec '25Q1 '25reachedHeld
Field capex >$700M, '25Q3 '24$776MHeld
Wind farm, Q4 '24Q3 '24online Nov '24Held
Low leverage funds the buildQ1 '251.4x, from 0.6xHeld
Power rules lift marginsQ1 '26power EBITDA +39%Held
45 kbpd plateau, H1 '27Q2 '25May or Q4 '27Open
Field capex $750M, '26Q3 '25$771M budgetOpen
Lifting cost ~$5/bblQ3 '25chart droppedOpen
Urea plant, COD end-'29Q2 '26openOpen
LNG vessel, end-'27Q2 '26openOpen
28 kbpd by mid-'26Q3 '2522.2 kbpd in Q2Missed
40 kbpd by Dec '26Q4 '24moved to 1H '27Missed
Field capex $1.5B, '25–27Q3 '24passed in two yearsMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

Oil rampOff page one Q2 '26

Balance sheetOff page one Q1 '26

Gas recordsPage one since Q1 '26

Gas to powerPage one since Q2 '26

Power rulesPage one since Q4 '25

Wind farmOff page one Q3 '25

BondsPage one since Q1 '26

RIGI and ureaFirst seen Q3 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Rincón de Aranda: a game changer for Pampa”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 10 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q4 '24 · headline page

“ Ramping-up Rincón de Aranda”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 4 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Rincón de Aranda: connecting the first pads”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Production ramp-up at Rincón de Aranda”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Production ramp-up at Rincón de Aranda”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Production ramp-up at Rincón de Aranda”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Rincón de Aranda surpassed the 20 kbpd milestone, today @ 25.3 kbpd”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Rincón de Aranda oil ramp

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“ON TRACK AND RIGI APPLICATION APPROVED”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 8 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q3 '24 · headline page

“✓ Lowest net debt in 8 years 0.8x net debt-to-EBITDA 539m @ Sept 30, 2024 12% YTD”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q4 '24 · headline page

“ The lowest net debt since 2016 0.6x net debt-to-EBITDA 410m @ EoY 2024 33% YTD”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 4 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Low net leverage, highly supportive of our projects”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 9 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Successful LM on debt maturities and financial cost, increased net leverage to support our new projects 10”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 10 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Solid balance sheet to support our growth 9”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 9 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Vertical integration between power & E&P 2025 net debt-EBITDA of 1.1x”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“SOLID BALANCE SHEET TO SUPPORT MORE GROWTH 9”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 9 ·

Low net debt, then a balance sheet to fund growth

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“SOLID BALANCE SHEET TO SUPPORT MORE GROWTH 12”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 12 ·

Gas production records

Q3 '24 · headline page

“✓ Strong growth of our gas production 13.9 mcmpd 8% yoy 56% shale vs. 43% in Q3 23”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Gas production records

Q4 '24 · headline page

“ Solid power & gas operating KPIs 9.8 mcmpd of gas 11% yoy 94% power availability rate 79 bps yoy”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 4 ·

Gas production records

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“New All-Time high for gas output”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

Gas production records

Q3 '25 · headline page

“New ATH gas production record of almost 18 mcmpd”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Gas production records

Q1 '26 · headline page

“O&G ATH quarterly production @ 100.6 kbpd, +38% yoy, +24% qoq”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Gas production records

Q2 '26 · headline page

“O&G ATH quarterly production @ 107.5 kbpd, driven by gas vertical integration with power”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

Vertical integration of gas and power

Q3 '25 · headline page

“gas self-procurement at CTLL”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Vertical integration of gas and power

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“GAS: THE VERTICAL INTEGRATION IS HAPPENING 8”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 8 ·

Vertical integration of gas and power

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“MONETAZING THE VERTICAL INTEGRATION 6”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

Vertical integration of gas and power

Q2 '26 · headline page

“O&G ATH quarterly production @ 107.5 kbpd, driven by gas vertical integration with power”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

Power market normalisation and spot prices

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Outstanding operating KPIs & raise in spot prices boosted Q3”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 4 ·

Power market normalisation and spot prices

Q2 '25 · headline page

“New wind farm PEPE 6 and resilient spot prices”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Power market normalisation and spot prices

Q4 '25 · headline page

“New normalization guidelines for power market”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Power market normalisation and spot prices

Q1 '26 · headline page

“New power framework allowing higher gas output and better spot margins”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Power market normalisation and spot prices

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Power growth reflected by winter spot prices and B2B PPA sales”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

PEPE 6 wind farm

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“PEPE 6 is fully commissioning soon 4.5 MW each”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

PEPE 6 wind farm

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“PEPE 6 is fully commissioned”

Deck Pampa Energía Q4 2024 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 10 ·

PEPE 6 wind farm

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Main highlights 96% thermal availability, new contribution of PEPE 6”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

PEPE 6 wind farm

Q2 '25 · headline page

“New wind farm PEPE 6 and resilient spot prices”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Debt-market access

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Successful LM, extending 2029s bonds”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Debt-market access

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Issued 200m for 3 years at 5.49%”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 3 ·

Debt-market access

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Retap 2037 at lowest spread for Argie corporates”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 6 ·

RIGI projects and urea

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Building infra, applied for RIGI”

Deck Pampa Energía Q3 2025 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

RIGI projects and urea

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Applied for Upstream RIGI on March 9, 2026”

Deck Pampa Energía Q1 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

RIGI projects and urea

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“PAMPA IS PARTICIPATING IN 7 RIGI PROJECTS 5”

Deck Pampa Energía Q2 2026 Results Videoconference Presentation · p. 5 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Oil ramp
On the headline page in Q4 '24 and from Q2 '25 to Q1 '26. Q2 '26 leads with total output and gives the field its own slide, where the dated mid-'26 step is gone.
Balance sheet
The lowest net debt in eight years in Q3 and Q4 '24; from Q4 '25 a solid balance sheet to support growth, as leverage went from 0.6x to 1.4x.
Gas records
Records stated in gas volumes until Q1 '26, then for oil and gas together in barrels of oil equivalent.
Gas to power
New in Q3 '25: the power plants burn Pampa's own gas for the first time in six years.
Power rules
Leads from Q4 '25: the new spot framework lifted power EBITDA 39% in Q2 '26.
Wind farm
On the highlights page until Q2 '25, after it came online in November '24.
Bonds
The 2037 notes and record-low spreads in Q2 '25, Q1 '26 and Q2 '26.
RIGI and urea
Q2 '26 opens with two urea slides and a seven-project RIGI table before the quarter's numbers.
New
Q2 '26: the RIGI table, well productivity against nearby blocks, monthly field output.
Quiet
The lifting-cost chart ($5 a barrel at plateau) after Q1 '26; P1 reserves outside year-end decks; the petrochemicals slide after Q3 '24; Moody's after Q2 '25.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers18%17%9%5%9%6%9%10%
Growth & sales·8%2%9%5%4%9%10%
Pricing & margins24%42%28%39%32%20%28%40%
Guidance & outlook6%17%12%16%9%18%9%10%
Capacity & supply41%38%23%18%27%29%31%·
Capital & financing12%17%21%11%32%16%41%10%
Competition6%··2%··3%·
Products & technology12%4%21%16%18%6%16%10%
Macro & regulation18%17%9%11%18%6%3%·
Other24%17%33%36%18%35%28%30%
Questions1724434422493210
How much the CEO talked54%53%47%28%0%58%53%0%

How these calls run. On every call, investors send questions in advance and investor relations reads them out, sometimes rephrased, and picks who answers. No analyst is heard live and nobody gets a follow-up, so this table shows the questions the company chose to read.

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    A board-linked builder takes a growing share of the capex

    SACDE, a related party, did $65M, $103M and $223M of works for Pampa in 2023–25, about 16% of 2025's capex, with $57M of the 2025 amount fees calculated on its own costs. The CEO, the chairman's brother, an executive VP and an alternate director sit on its board.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    A founder-management group of 22% fills half the board

    The chairman, his brother and his son, the CEO and an executive VP are five of the ten directors, on staggered three-year terms. The state pension fund, the largest holder at 22.8%, has an alternate director the 20-F counts as independent.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    Pay on EBITDA and the share price, not on cash

    Executives share 1.8% of adjusted EBITDA and 3.6% of the yearly rise in market value; board fees were Ps 23.9B for 2025, about $16M. No per-person figures: a foreign private issuer files no proxy.

  4. Tier 3 · mixed

    The chairman sold more than he bought; the CEO bought

    Since insider reporting began in March '26: the chairman sold $38.2M and bought $14.5M, his brother sold $9.5M, the CEO bought $6.0M of ADSs. None of it under a pre-set plan.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Board feesBoard pay. How much the directors themselves are paid for sitting on the board.0.8%0.7%0.7%
Directors electedA board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.0.3%0.3%0.3%
Supervisory alternate (2025)A board seat.33.9%——
Auditor (PwC)The auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.0.3%0.1%0.1%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Mar–Sep 2026SoldNote
Marcelo Mindlin, chairman$38.2M11.0M shares; bought 4.3M back for $14.5M
Damián Mindlin, director, his brother$9.5M2.66M shares, Mar–Jun