PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.

Industry Energy materials Updated 25 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$7.29 → $14.34

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$7 → $14

Show the math

Today's multiple on what the whole company earns now, held — and on top of it, only what the power business adds: management's own schedule of deployed megawatts at each year end, times the annualised EBITDA per megawatt it has published. The completions business is held exactly where it is, because ProPetro guides no revenue, margin or earnings figure for it at all. That is not conservatism, it is the absence of a number, and the first thing to know about these columns is that the business producing almost all of today's profit is shrinking inside them: first-half adjusted EBITDA was down 34% on a year earlier. Net debt is about nil — $797m of borrowings against $784m of cash — because the build was pre-funded. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace, all shares + convertsshares +0.7% a year as in H2 '25, plus the 29.78M shares behind the May '26 convertible	$7	$14154M sh	$17154M sh	$18155M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Today's company value over adjusted EBITDA of $162-180m: the first half of 2026 doubled at the low end, and the $45m the chief financial officer reported for the second quarter annualised at the high end. About 6.6-7.3x, held unchanged in every year. It is the whole company's measure, and it is held flat from here because no guide exists for the completions business that produces it.
The compounding. Management's own PROPWR schedule: 475-525 megawatts deployed at the end of 2027, then 150-200 more each year, which it states as "at least 150–200 MWs annually". Each megawatt earns $275,000 of annualised EBITDA, rising to $300,000 "once operations are fully optimized" — the footnote to the same slide. The newer, post-Caterpillar schedule in the Q2 2026 deck is larger still (about 1.2 GW deployed by 2029 against 775-925 megawatts here) and is deliberately not used: the older series is the conservative one, and the one with the EBITDA rate attached.
The arithmetic. (company value if delivered − net debt) ÷ shares. Today: $7 × 122.8M shares, with net debt of $13Mm. The figure shown adds the 30MM shares behind the $690m convertible at its $23.17 conversion price and takes its carrying value off the debt, because at anything like these values it converts. The count grows from the 30 Jun 2026 count at 0.7% a year — measured over the second half of 2025, not the latest half, which contains a 15,000,000-share offering and the convertible and would annualise two financings into a share-count trend.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
2024 capex $150-175M	Q3 '24	held: $133.4M incurred	Held
A fourth FORCE fleet by end '24	Q3 '24	held	Held
The buyback is extended past May '25	Q1 '25	held — then unused	Held
~75 MW of LOIs become contracts	Q1 '25	held: 80 MW first contract	Held
~220 MW under contract by end '25	Q2 '25	held: ~240 MW	Held
A $350M lease facility signed	Q3 '25	held	Held
Completions cash funds PROPWR's growth	Q2 '25	partly: group FCF -$30.4M in H1 '26	Late
A fifth FORCE fleet in early '25	Q3 '24	gone from the slides after Q1 '25	Dropped
All ~220 MW delivered by mid-'26	Q1 '25	the date left the slides	Dropped
~$275,000 of EBITDA per MW	Q3 '25	chart dropped Q1 '26; reaffirmed on the Q2 '26 call	Dropped
150-200 MW delivered in '25	Q4 '24	open	Open
1 GW+ installed by 2030	Q3 '25	open; the newer plan says 2.6 GW by 2031	Open
Direct-drive units cut future capex	Q4 '25	open	Open
$200M of buybacks by May '25	Q3 '24	stopped at $111M	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

Free cash flowPage one since Q3 '24

The fleetOff page one Q1 '25

PROPWROff page one Q2 '26

BuybacksFirst seen Q3 '24

The rerateOff page one Q4 '25

PermianPage one since Q1 '26

M&AFirst seen Q3 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.