QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

1. Bullish
   Visser: move into Qualcomm as AI spreads to edge devicesJordi Visser · The Julia La Roche Show · 22 Oct 2026
2. Bullish
   Qualcomm's unloved handset franchise has bought its way into the AI tradeGordon Reid · In the Money with Amber Kanwar · 24 Sep 2026

All 2 statements on the Podcast Heatmap

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

1. Tier 2 · worsening

   The buyback bought 193 million shares and retired 68 million

   From fiscal 2021 through the first nine months of fiscal 2026 Qualcomm generated $56.1bn of free cash flow and spent $29.2bn buying back 193m shares at an average of about $151, against $14.2bn of share-based pay. The share count fell from 1,125m to 1,050m — 68m net shares for $29.2bn, about $429 a share. Over the same stretch shareholders approved adding 22,950,000 shares to the long-term incentive plan at the 2025 meeting and 24,000,000 more at the 2026 meeting. Capital returned ran to 98% of free cash flow in fiscal 2025 and 142% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, while free cash flow itself fell 26%. The research record puts incremental return on invested capital from fiscal 2021 to the latest twelve months at about 1.5%.

2. Tier 2 · live

   The pay plan is measured on adjusted numbers, and 25 million warrant shares may be charged against one of them

   The annual incentive plan pays on adjusted revenue and adjusted operating income, and the performance units pay 50% on three-year adjusted earnings per share, with no capital-returns or dilution metric anywhere in the plan — so the buyback that lifts earnings per share also lifts the award. Into that comes the Amazon warrant: 25,000,000 shares at $161.26, vesting against up to $60bn of purchases, where the company's sole critical audit matter is already chip revenue recognition with customer incentives treated as variable consideration. If the warrant is charged against the revenue line, as a comparable penny warrant is at Cerebras, the data centre targets and the revenue that tests them are not the same number. The fiscal 2026 10-K is the first document that must say.

3. Tier 2 · stable

   The customer-share calls are the ones that slip

   Across eight quarters every revenue and earnings guide landed in or above its range. The two misses in the research record's fourteen rows are both multi-quarter customer calls: Apple's share of the coming iPhone launch was put at 20%, reaffirmed as "No change" on 2026-04-29, and cut on 2026-07-29 to "materially lower"; Samsung's share was restated from 75% to over 70% a quarter before landing at about 70%. The FY2025 10-K's own risk factor says Apple "will increasingly use its own modem products, rather than our products" with "a significant negative impact" on chip revenue. The fiscal 2029 targets on this page — $40bn of non-handset revenue, $15bn or more of data centre revenue, more than $18 of earnings — are multi-year calls of exactly the kind that have slipped.

4. Tier 3 · worsening

   Two directors left at the 2026 meeting and the compensation committee is down to two

   Neil Smit told the board on 2025-12-10 he would retire at the 2026 meeting after nearly eight years, and Christopher Young told it on 2026-01-13 that he would step down because of the time his new chief executive role would take. Neither seat was refilled: the board went from thirteen to eleven. Young was one of three members of the HR and compensation committee during fiscal 2025, and the proxy's director cards show only Rosenfeld and Tricoire holding that seat among the 2026 nominees. Both committee members' votes moved sharply the same year — Rosenfeld from 3.8% against to 7.3%, Livermore from 1.6% to 7.1%, and the audit chair from 3.0% to 5.0% — while say on pay improved, from 10.5% against to 8.3%.

5. Tier 3 · stable

   Owners asked for a China report and 97% voted it down; management has never quantified China

   A shareholder proposal entitled "Report on Risk of China Exposure" was put to the 2026 meeting and rejected, 22,142,415 for against 722,023,888 — 3.0% support. Separately, the research record's dodge log records that China exposure was asked about in four of the eight calls read and never quantified, and the Q3 FY2026 deck says Chinese handset revenue reached a bottom without showing a China revenue line. A proposal to make it easier for holders to call a special meeting was also rejected, with 42.2% support.