SNDKSandisk Corporation

Industry Semis memory Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$1,238 → $1,428

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$1,238 → $1,262

One guided year on: +7% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $1,262, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $1,428 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $1,238 is +7% a year, $1,322 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Sandisk guides one quarter at a time, so the base is the run-rate it guides — the Q1 FY27 guide of $10.3-10.8bn at an 83-85% non-GAAP gross margin, annualised — held at today's 5× multiple of that gross profit. The three years after it, fiscal 2028 to 2030, are the long-term model the CFO set out at the August 2026 Investor Day: revenue growth "Mid-to-High Teens" (taken as 15-19% a year) at a non-GAAP gross margin of "~80%". Those are averages over the three years, and they are measured from a fiscal 2027 that management has not guided, so here they compound on the guided quarter's run-rate. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares at their past pace-1.5% a year: 147.6M to 146.4M from Jan to Aug '26, the $4.5B buyback net of awards	$1,238	$1,262144M sh	$1,398141M sh	$1,642139M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The base. The Q1 FY27 guide, $10.3-10.8bn at 83-85% non-GAAP gross margin, annualised: $41.2-43.2bn. Fiscal 2026 as a whole was $20.25bn at 71.6%, and fiscal 2025 $7.36bn at 30.3%, so the base is twice the year that produced it.
Today's multiple. About seven times that run-rate's gross profit; on fiscal 2026 as a whole it would be about seventeen. Either way a memory maker's multiple, not a grower's.
The guided years. Fiscal 2028 to 2030 grow 15-19% a year at about 80% gross margin — Sandisk's own Investor Day model, 13 Aug '26. The margin step from 83-85% to 80% takes about 5% off the value in the first year; the growth does the rest.
Shares. 146.4M economic shares at 7 Aug 2026, one class, no warrants and no convertible notes; the proxy gives 145.3M at 4 Sep '26. $4.5bn was bought back in fiscal 2026 and $15.5bn of authority is left. Net debt is negative: -$4.8B.
What is left out. The cash the model would throw off: management's own frame is an adjusted free cash flow margin of about 50% and a pledge to return 100% of excess cash. None of it is credited above beyond what buybacks do to the count.

Promises vs. what happened

13 claims · 6 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Q4 FY25 revenue $1.75-1.85B	Q3 '25	$1.90B; margin inside the range	Held
Q3 FY26 revenue $4.4-4.8B	Q2 '26	$5.95B, 24% above the top	Held
Q4 FY26 revenue $7.75-8.25B	Q3 '26	$8.97B; margin 84.6% vs 79-81%	Held
Demand to strengthen through 2025	Q3 '25	held; margin 22.7% to 84.6%	Held
BiCS8 qualified at PC OEMs in Q4 FY25	Q3 '25	all major PC OEMs, on time	Held
Stargate QLC shipping for revenue	Q2 '26	shipped in Q4 FY26; no revenue figure	Held
Two more NBMs in Q4 FY26	Q3 '26	five signed, three in quarter	Held
Debt repaid, then a $6B buyback	Q3 '26	$4.5B spent in one quarter; $14B more	Held
FY26 capex mostly BiCS8	Q1 '26	BiCS8 majority of bits by year end	Held
More hyperscaler Gen5 qualifications	Q2 '26	revenue grew; qualifications never counted	Late
Q1 FY27 revenue $10.3-10.8B at 83-85%	Q4 '26	open; reported 29 Oct '26	Open
FY27 capex ~6% of revenue, bits up mid-teens	Q4 '26	open	Open
NAND market $300B in CY26, $500B in CY27	Q4 '26	open; TechInsights' figures	Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26

ShortageOff page one Q2 '26

Data centreOff page one Q4 '26

BiCS8Off page one Q1 '26

StargateFirst seen Q1 '26

ContractsOff page one Q4 '26

HBFPage one since Q4 '26

CapitalPage one since Q3 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Demand ahead of supply and pricing

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Forecasting demand to strengthen throughout the year”

Deck Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 3 · 7 May 2025

Demand ahead of supply and pricing

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Favorable Supply-Demand Dynamics & Our Strategic Pricing Driving Gross Margin Expansion”

Deck Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results · p. 3 · 14 Aug 2025

Demand ahead of supply and pricing

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Demand for our NAND products continued to outpace our supply, a dynamic we expect to persist”

Deck Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 3 · 6 Nov 2025

Demand ahead of supply and pricing

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Demand meaningfully exceeded supply.”

Deck Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 4 · 29 Jan 2026

Demand ahead of supply and pricing

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“Demand from our customers is growing faster than our supply, and we expect bits to remain on allocation beyond calendar 2027 00.012”

Deck Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2026 Financial Results · p. 12 · 5 Aug 2026