TOSTToast, Inc.
Industry Payments software Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$32.71 → $40.55
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 8 lettersEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 growth and EBITDA | Q3 '24 | 34% and $373M, both over | Held |
| Q4 '24 growth 32-35% | Q3 '24 | 39% and $111M | Held |
| FY25 growth 23-25%, EBITDA $510-530M | Q4 '24 | 33% and $633M, raised three times | Held |
| Record net adds in Q2 '25 | Q1 '25 | ~8,500, a record until Q2 '26 | Held |
| More net adds in '25 than '24 | Q1 '25 | ~30,000 against ~28,000 | Held |
| New segments past 10,000 locations | Q4 '24 | crossed two quarters early | Held |
| New segments past $100M ARR | Q2 '25 | met on inference; no figure printed | Held |
| EBITDA margin 30-35% | Q3 '24 | 34% in '25, a year early | Held |
| Stock pay to low double digits | Q4 '24 | 10% of recurring gross profit | Held |
| FY25 cash flow mirrors EBITDA | Q4 '24 | $608M against $633M | Held |
| Drive-through launches in '26 | Q4 '25 | launched early; no adoption figure | Held |
| Q2 '26 growth 22-24% | Q1 '26 | 28% and $221M | Held |
| FY26 growth 20-22%, EBITDA $775-795M | Q4 '25 | raised twice, now 23-25% | Open |
| More net adds in '26 than '25 | Q3 '25 | 16,500 in H1 vs ~14,500 | Open |
| Memory chips cost ~150bp in '26 | Q4 '25 | open; 2027 impact 'larger', unsized | Open |
| $1B ARR per new segment | Q3 '25 | no date; $200M targeted for all three | Open |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, letter by letterThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
Net addsPage one since Q3 '24
Recurring GPPage one since Q3 '24
Profit linePage one since Q3 '24
New marketsPage one since Q4 '25
AINew Q4 '24 · Page one since Q2 '26
ARR ambitionOff page one Q4 '25
Hardware costFirst seen Q1 '25
on the headline page further in the letter not in the letter▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Net location adds
“we added approximately 7,000 net locations, our recurring gross profit streams grew 35% year over year, Adjusted”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Net location adds
“we added a record 28,000 net locations, our recurring”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Net location adds
“In Q1 we added over 6,000 net locations,”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Net location adds
“we added a record 8,500 net new locations,”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Net location adds
“continued year-over-year growth in net location adds.”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Net location adds
“profit 33%, expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins to 34%, and added over 30,000 net locations on the platform. Our core continues to grow at a rapid pace with strong incremental margins”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Net location adds
“We added 7,000 net locations and are broadening who we serve”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
Net location adds
“We had a record 9,500 net location adds in the quarter”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“we added approximately 7,000 net locations, our recurring gross profit streams grew 35% year over year, Adjusted”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“our recurring gross profit streams grew 34% year over year,”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“our recurring gross profit streams grew 37% year over year,”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“grew recurring gross profit 35%,”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“We delivered another great quarter with 34% top-line growth,”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“Iʼm really proud of the Toast team for what we accomplished in 2025. We grew recurring gross profit 33%, expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins to 34%, and added over 30,000 net locations”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“we grew recurring gross profit streams 27%”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
Recurring gross profit growth
“we grew recurring gross profit streams over 28%”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
Headline profit measure
“we added approximately 7,000 net locations, our recurring gross profit streams grew 35% year over year, Adjusted EBITDA came in at $113 million, and our”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Headline profit measure
“Adjusted EBITDA grew to $373 million,”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Headline profit measure
“Adjusted EBITDA grew to $133 million,”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Headline profit measure
“delivered $161 million of adjusted EBITDA.”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Headline profit measure
“34% top-line growth, 35% margins,”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Headline profit measure
“profit 33%, expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins to 34%, and added over 30,000 net locations”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Headline profit measure
“expanded GAAP Operating Income margins to 21%.”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
Headline profit measure
“expanded GAAP Operating Income margins to 26%.”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“Switching gears, our third priority is expanding our addressable market into new adjacencies including Food and Beverage Retail, International, and Enterprise.”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 3 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“Second, demonstrate that our new markets can be material drivers of growth”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“we expect to cross 10,000 locations across international,”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 3 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“we crossed 10,000 live locations across enterprise, international,”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“these new TAMs have the potential to surpass our core business”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 4 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“as we scale, while our emerging TAMs across retail, international, and enterprise doubled ARR in 2025.”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“are broadening who we serve - from local restaurants across the U.S. to enterprise chains,”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
New markets: enterprise, international, retail
“our new markets are growing rapidly,”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“Third, increase customer adoption of our broad platform”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“a broader AI-powered intelligence engine”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 4 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“our AI-powered intelligence engine, ToastIQ,”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 3 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“We recently evolved Sous Chef into Toast IQ,”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 4 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“Our product team released over 500 new features including Toast IQ, our conversational AI assistant. Customer feedback and adoption has been tremendous - Toast IQ not only”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“Toast IQ is the foundation for our evolution from a software platform to an agent platform”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
AI: Sous Chef to Toast IQ to agents
“reinventing our platform with AI through agents and software working together”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 1 ·
$5B and $10B ARR ambition
“a durable growth company that can scale to $5B and $10B in ARR and beyond.”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
$5B and $10B ARR ambition
“Longer term, if we can do these well, we are positioned to drive durable growth from over $2 billion in ARR today to $5 and $10 billion and beyond.”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 3 ·
$5B and $10B ARR ambition
“to scale this business to $5 billion and $10 billion and beyond.”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
$5B and $10B ARR ambition
“sets us up to scale Toast to $10 billion in ARR and beyond.”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 2 ·
Hardware cost: tariffs and memory chips
“Our guidance factors in stable consumer trends as well as slightly higher”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 7 ·
Hardware cost: tariffs and memory chips
“In addition, we will have higher”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 8 ·
Hardware cost: tariffs and memory chips
“also absorbing higher”
Deck Toast Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 8 ·
Hardware cost: tariffs and memory chips
“higher memory chip costs for our hardware. This headwind emerged since we shared our”
Deck Toast Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 11 ·
Hardware cost: tariffs and memory chips
“We are strategically purchasing memory chips”
Deck Toast First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 8 ·
Hardware cost: tariffs and memory chips
“With respect to the dynamic memory market,”
Deck Toast Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - Prepared Remarks · p. 7 ·
What they keep talking about · 9
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Net adds
- In the opening line of all eight letters. The annual promise hardened from "more than 2023" to "comparable" to "increase", and each version was met: ~28,000 in '24, ~30,000 in '25, a record 9,500 in Q2 '26.
- Recurring GP
- The basis of the top-line guide and the first number in every letter, and the measure the value on this page compounds.
- Profit line
- Adjusted EBITDA led the chief executive's opening through Q4 '25; from Q1 '26 the opening quotes GAAP operating margin and Adjusted EBITDA moves to the CFO section — while the guidance stays in Adjusted EBITDA.
- New markets
- A priority in every letter and in the opening paragraph from Q4 '25. Australia added as the fourth country in Q2 '25; gas stations and fuel payments appear in Q2 '26. ARR for them is given only as targets.
- AI
- Absent from the Q3 '24 priorities, third of four through '25, and first of three from Q1 '26 — "from a software to an agentic platform".
- ARR ambition
- Introduced in Q3 '25 when ARR passed $2B, with no date attached in any letter. The $5B step drops out of the Q2 '26 letter, leaving $10B.
- Hardware cost
- Tariffs from Q1 '25, memory chips from Q4 '25, and a ~$10M tariff refund in Q2 '26 that was outside the guide and was reinvested rather than banked.
- New
- Q3 '25 added hardware and services gross profit as a share of recurring gross profit — a loss line — and the $10B ARR ambition. Q1 '26 made AI the first priority.
- Quiet
- SaaS net retention, the dollar-based payback period and the US market share all stopped. Each was a number that said whether the locations being added are worth adding.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 2026 release · 8-K 4 Aug 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 8-K 7 May 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 8-K 12 Feb 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 8-K 4 Nov 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 8-K 5 Aug 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 8-K 8 May 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 8-K 19 Feb 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 8-K 7 Nov 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 11% | 27% | 12% | 25% | 50% | 8% | 20% | 12% |
| Growth & sales | 32% | 23% | 25% | 50% | 17% | 17% | 30% | 50% |
| Pricing & margins | 11% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 8% | 30% | 50% |
| Guidance & outlook | 16% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 33% | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Capacity & supply | · | · | · | · | · | · | 10% | · |
| Capital & financing | 5% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
| Competition | 11% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 42% | · | 10% | · |
| Products & technology | 21% | 14% | 12% | 31% | 42% | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Macro & regulation | · | · | 17% | 12% | 8% | · | · | 12% |
| Other | 53% | 36% | 46% | 12% | 17% | 17% | 20% | · |
| Questions | 19 | 22 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| How much the CEO talked | 41% | 48% | 50% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 46% | 46% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · stable
40.6% of the vote on 2% of the Class A, and the founder bloc is about 58%
Class B carries ten votes. Officers and directors hold 2.0% of the Class A and 70.3% of the Class B — 40.6% of the total vote; Fredette 22.5% and Narang 18.4%. Two more co-founders are outside the company and still carry Class B: Jonathan Grimm 10.1% and former chief executive Chris Comparato 7.2%. The largest outside holder, Capital International, has 8.4% of the Class A and 3.7% of the vote. Nothing read describes a sunset.
Tier 2 · worsening
A software company that now carries credit risk, and it is the auditor's critical matter
Toast Capital loans are written by a bank partner; Toast services them, earns fees and must buy back any that prove ineligible. The contingent liability for expected credit losses was $46M at the end of 2025 and $53M at 30 Jun '26, and it is the auditor's one critical audit matter. The FY25 10-K added "credit risk on the loans extended by our bank partner" and that small businesses are "more susceptible" to macro — against payment volume per location that fell 1% in two quarters and was flat in the third. H1 '26 also shows $80M of loans purchased and held for investment.
Tier 2 · improving
The dilution problem in this cluster has been solved here
$486M of buybacks in the first half of 2026 — over 19M shares at about $25.50, below today's price — took the count from 589M to 577M. Share-based pay has fallen in dollars since 2023 and hit management's own target: 16% of recurring gross profit exiting 2024, 12% in Q4 '25, 10% in Q2 '26. Return on invested capital is 40.9%, there is no drawn debt, and the bonus plan is 70% recurring gross profit and 30% Adjusted EBITDA, with no earnings-per-share element to game.
Tier 3 · worsening
Three measures stopped, and market share has had three denominators
The SaaS net retention rate (110% for '24, 109% for '25), the dollar-based payback period and the US market share all left the letters; persistence across the eight is 0.8. The market-share figure appeared as 14% penetration, then 15% of US restaurants, then 10% of a 1.4M-location market, then 20% of SMB and mid-market. "Core net take rate" became "payments net take rate", SaaS revenue-per-location growth went from an exact 4-5% to "mid-single digit", and the chief executive's opening swapped Adjusted EBITDA for GAAP operating margin while the guidance stayed in Adjusted EBITDA. New-segment ARR is given only as round targets, never as an actual.
Tier 3 · live
The 2027 hardware cost is 'larger than 2026' and has twice gone unsized
The February guide carried about 150 basis points of margin impact from memory chips, weighted to the second half, and Toast pre-bought inventory against it — $114M to $217M. Asked on the Q1 '26 call what 2027 looks like, the chief financial officer said the impact "will be larger than the impact to '26" with no figure; asked again on Q2, "greater than '26", again with no figure. Five dodges are logged across the two calls read, 28% of the questions — the highest rate among the companies covered here.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 14.2M against | 58.6M against | 5.8% |
| Ratify Ernst & YoungThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 1.0M against | 0.5M against | 0.05% |
| Bennett (longest-serving)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | 87.6M withheld | 8.7% |
| Chapman-Hughes (compensation chair)A board seat. | — | 65.9M withheld | 6.5% |
| Hawkins (board chair)A board seat. | — | 7.4M withheld | 0.7% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insiders | $13.3M | 43 sales by 8 people, and not one purchase |
| Aman Narang | about $12.3M | ~353K shares over twelve months in the Form 4 parse |
| Jonathan Vassil | about $8.9M | the revenue chief, who announced his retirement on 28 Sep '26 |
| Against it, the company | $486M | bought back in the same half, 37 times what the insiders sold |