TSLATesla, Inc.
Industry Auto OEM Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$372 → $423
What the podcasts say
2 bullish · 8 bearish · 8 speakers · 7 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Bearish
- Bearish
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 8 lettersEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storage more than doubles, '24 | Q3 '24 | +114% | Held |
| Cheaper models, 1H '25 | Q3 '24 | Standard trims, Oct '25 | Late |
| Unsupervised robotaxi, '25 | Q4 '24 | safety rider to Jan '26 | Late |
| FSD in Europe and China, '25 | Q4 '24 | Netherlands, Apr '26 | Late |
| Robotaxi in 7 metros, 1H '26 | Q4 '25 | 5 of 7 by July | Late |
| AI training compute ×2, 1H '26 | Q4 '25 | partly | Late |
| ~3M capacity, >60% growth | Q4 '24 | dropped after Q1 '25 | Dropped |
| Optimus doing useful work, '25 | Q1 '25 | dropped | Dropped |
| Optimus Gen 3 unveiled, Q1 '26 | Q4 '25 | dropped | Dropped |
| Cybercab volume production, '26 | Q4 '24 | production started 1H '26 | Open |
| Optimus line, 1M a year | Q4 '25 | construction | Open |
| Megapack 3, up to 50 GWh | Q3 '25 | commissioning | Open |
| Deliveries grow in '24 | Q3 '24 | −1% | Missed |
| Return to growth in '25 | Q4 '24 | −9% | Missed |
| Storage +50% in '25 | Q4 '24 | +49% | Missed |
| Semi ramp, early '26 | Q4 '24 | commissioning, Jul '26 | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, letter by letterThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
RobotaxiPage one since Q2 '25
Cheaper carsOff page one Q2 '26
StoragePage one since Q2 '26
TariffsOff page one Q2 '26
Physical AIPage one since Q2 '26
OptimusNew Q4 '24 · Page one since Q2 '26
FactoriesPage one since Q4 '25
FSDOff page one Q1 '25
on the headline page further in the letter not in the letter▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“At our "We, Robot" event on October 10, we detailed our long -term goal of offering autonomous transport with a cost per mile below rideshare, personal car ownership and even public transit.”
Deck Q3 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“This will eventually unlock an unsupervised FSD option for our customers and the Robotaxi business, which we expect to begin launching later this year in parts of the U.S. We also continue to work on launching FSD”
Deck Q4 and FY 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“We remain on track for pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin by June and builds of Optimus on our Fremont pilot production line in 2025, with wider deployment of bots doing useful work across our factories.”
Deck Q1 2025 Update · p. 8 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“Our first Robotaxi service launched in Austin in June.”
Deck Q2 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“Operations Launched ride -hailing service in the Bay Area using Robotaxi technology”
Deck Q3 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“Operations Began removing safety monitor from our Robotaxis in Austin in January”
Deck Q4 and FY 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“Launched unsupervised Robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston in April”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Autonomy and Robotaxi
“Robotaxi rollout continued in the U.S. and is now live in seven major metros 5.”
Deck Q2 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Affordable models and cost per vehicle
“Preparations remain underway for our offering of new vehicles – including more affordable models – which we will begin launching in the first half of 2025.”
Deck Q3 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Affordable models and cost per vehicle
“In Q4, COGS per vehicle reached its lowest level ever at <$35,000, driven largely by raw material cost improvement, helping us to partially offset our investment in compelling financing and lease options.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Affordable models and cost per vehicle
“Given economic uncertainty resulting from changing trade policy, more affordable options are as critical as ever.”
Deck Q1 2025 Update · p. 7 ·
Affordable models and cost per vehicle
“We continue to expand our vehicle offering, including first builds of a more affordable model in June, with volume production planned for the second half of 2025.”
Deck Q2 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Affordable models and cost per vehicle
“We launched the Model YL and Model Y Performance and further expanded our vehicle offering with the Model 3 and Model Y Standard, our most affordable vehicles.”
Deck Q3 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Affordable models and cost per vehicle
“Our focus on affordability and utility across our vehicle lineup continues to be a key competitive advantage, particularly as gas -powered alternatives become more expensive due to their reliance on a more sensitive and less flexible energy supply chain.”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“The Energy business achieved another strong quarter with a record gross margin.”
Deck Q3 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“The Energy business achieved another record in Q4 with its highest -ever gross profit generation.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“Furthermore, AI infrastructure is driving rapid load growth, which, along with traditional utility customer applications, is creating an outsized opportunity for our”
Deck Q1 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“The Energy business is more critical than ever.”
Deck Q2 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“Record energy storage deployments”
Deck Q3 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“Record Q4 & FY’25 energy storage deployments”
Deck Q4 and FY 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Energy storage
“Progress continued at the new Megafactory outside Houston, which will produce the Megapack 3 for Megablock.”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 6 ·
Energy storage
“Our Energy Storage business returned to growth, achieving its second-best quarterly deployment number and record deployments on a trailing twelve -month basis.”
Deck Q2 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Trade, tariff and macro uncertainty
“Despite sustained macroeconomic headwinds and others pulling back on EV investments, we remain focused on expanding our vehicle and energy product lineup, reducing costs and making critical investments in AI projects and production capacity.”
Deck Q3 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
Trade, tariff and macro uncertainty
“Uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets continues to increase as rapidly evolving trade policy adversely impacts the global supply chain and cost structure of Tesla and our peers.”
Deck Q1 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Trade, tariff and macro uncertainty
“Despite a sustained uncertain macroeconomic environment resulting from shifting tariffs, unclear impacts from changes to fiscal policy and political sentiment, we continue to make high -value investments in CapEx and R&D, while ensuring a strong balance sheet.”
Deck Q2 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Trade, tariff and macro uncertainty
“While we face near -term uncertainty from shifting trade, tariff and fiscal policy, we are focused on long-term growth and value creation.”
Deck Q3 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Trade, tariff and macro uncertainty
“We are making the necessary investments that will ensure our access to key materials and componentry in each region across vehicle, energy and AI as trade and geopolitics become more uncertain.”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Transition to a physical AI company
“AI is a major pillar of growth for Tesla and the broader economy and key to our pursuit of sustainable abundance.”
Deck Q1 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Transition to a physical AI company
“Q2 2025 was a seminal point in Tesla’s history: the beginning of our transition from leading the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries to also becoming a leader in AI, robotics and related services.”
Deck Q2 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Transition to a physical AI company
“Every Tesla vehicle delivered today is designed for autonomy while every Tesla energy storage product is capable of being enhanced and optimized by our virtual power plant or Autobidder functionality.”
Deck Q3 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Transition to a physical AI company
“$1.8B in Q4 2025 marked a critical year for Tesla as we further expanded our mission and continued our transition from a hardware -centric business to a physical AI company.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Transition to a physical AI company
“Tesla is in its largest and most exciting period of investment.”
Deck Q2 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Optimus
“Progress on Optimus hardware and software continued in Q4, including the latest generation hand, robust locomotion and training on additional tasks, ahead of planned pilot production in 2025.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2024 Update · p. 10 ·
Optimus
“We remain on track for pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin by June and builds of Optimus on our Fremont pilot production line in 2025, with wider deployment of bots doing useful work across our factories.”
Deck Q1 2025 Update · p. 8 ·
Optimus
“Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on schedule for volume production starting in 2026. First generation production lines for Optimus are being installed in anticipation of volume production.”
Deck Q3 2025 Update · p. 10 ·
Optimus
“We laid the foundation for the future of Tesla as we further advanced FSD (Supervised) 4, launched our Robotaxi service, began installing production lines for Cybercab and fine -tuned our production- primed Optimus design while expanding our AI training infrastructure.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Optimus
“The first -generation line, designed for 1 million robots a year, will replace the Model S and Model X lines in Fremont.”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 6 ·
Optimus
“Construction at our Fremont Factory for Optimus began after we decommissioned the Model S & X lines, with anticipated production later this year.”
Deck Q2 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Vertical integration and new factories
“In 2026, we will further invest in the infrastructure needed to support clean energy and transport and autonomous robots, including the ramp of six new production lines across vehicle, robots, energy storage and battery manufacturing, while further leveraging our existing factory, charging and service center footprint to support future growth.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2025 Update · p. 3 ·
Vertical integration and new factories
“Began ramping lithium, cathode and LFP production 3”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
Vertical integration and new factories
“Additionally, site selection, preparation, construction and equipment procurement progressed in the quarter for solar and semiconductor manufacturing.”
Deck Q2 2026 Update · p. 3 ·
FSD (Supervised) adoption
“Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised) 4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12 3”
Deck Q3 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
FSD (Supervised) adoption
“Over three billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised) 4 as of January”
Deck Q4 and FY 2024 Update · p. 3 ·
FSD (Supervised) adoption
“Monthly subscriptions to FSD (Supervised) 1 continued to grow sequentially and more than doubled in 2025.”
Deck Q4 and FY 2025 Update · p. 11 ·
FSD (Supervised) adoption
“A major focus is increasing awareness of the safety and convenience provided by FSD (Supervised) as we evolve our sales strategy to position FSD (Supervised) as the product, with promising early signs.”
Deck Q1 2026 Update · p. 9 ·
FSD (Supervised) adoption
“We also achieved record FSD attach rates in North America, with over 55% of new deliveries including FSD subscriptions.”
Deck Q2 2026 Update · p. 9 ·
What they keep talking about · 8
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Robotaxi
- On the highlights page in seven of eight letters. The Q2 '26 count of seven metros includes the Bay Area, run with a safety driver.
- Cheaper cars
- Cost per vehicle led in Q3 and Q4 '24 only; after the Standard trims launched, the affordable-model promise left the letter.
- Storage
- Off the highlights page only in Q1 '26, when deployments fell 15% year on year to 8.8 GWh.
- Tariffs
- The explanation offered through 2025, the year the volume guide was withdrawn; gone from the Q4 '25 and Q2 '26 highlights.
- Physical AI
- 'Sustainable abundance' from Q1 to Q3 '25, renamed 'Amazing Abundance' from Q1 '26.
- Factories
- New in Q4 '25 with the expanded capacity tables; Q1 '26 adds the chip fab with SpaceX.
- New
- Active FSD subscriptions and cumulative deliveries from Q4 '25, defined by the 2025 CEO award; AI compute in MW from Q2 '26.
- Quiet
- No volume outlook since Q1 '25. Cost per vehicle, the mobile service fleet and the store count were dropped.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | · | 17% | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth & sales | · | 17% | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Pricing & margins | · | 33% | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Guidance & outlook | 50% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Capacity & supply | · | · | · | · | · | 50% | · | · |
| Capital & financing | · | · | · | · | · | 50% | · | · |
| Competition | 50% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Products & technology | 50% | · | 33% | · | · | · | · | · |
| Macro & regulation | · | 17% | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Other | · | 50% | 67% | 100% | 100% | · | 100% | 100% |
| Questions | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| How much the CEO talked | 57% | 86% | 54% | 55% | 73% | 61% | 63% | 48% |
How these calls run. On the Q2 26 call, investors send questions in advance and investor relations reads them out, sometimes rephrased, and picks who answers. No analyst is heard live and nobody gets a follow-up, so this table shows the questions the company chose to read.
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · worsening
The CEO also runs SpaceX, which owns xAI, and Tesla has money on the other side
Tesla put $2.0B into what became SpaceX stock in March '26, after a shareholder proposal to invest in xAI failed on abstentions. xAI bought $430M of Megapacks in 2025; SpaceX $318M of Tesla goods in Q2 '26.
Tier 2 · stable
Two awards worth more than a quarter of the company
The reinstated 2018 options, about 304M, were exercised in Q2 '26 and must be held. The 2025 award adds 423.7M shares, earned only at $2–8.5 trillion; 23% of votes were against it.
Tier 2 · mixed
Shareholder rights narrowed on the move to Texas
A 3% ownership threshold to sue on the company's behalf, about $38B of stock; supermajority votes kept. Annual director elections passed in 2025.
Tier 2 · stable
A long-serving board with ties to the CEO
His brother since 2004; Ira Ehrenpreis since 2007, re-elected with 35% against; JB Straubel's Redwood trades with Tesla. The chair sits on every committee.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 CEO awardExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | — | 564.9M | 23.0% |
| Pay (advisory)Executive pay. | — | 523.9M | 21.3% |
| EhrenpreisA board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | 858.8M | 35.0% |
| Wilson-ThompsonA board seat. | — | 529.0M | 21.6% |
| Auditor (PwC)The auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | — | 66.8M | 2.4% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Form 4s, Oct 2025–Sep 2026 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Wilson-Thompson, director | $30.0M | under a plan |
| Murdoch, director | $26.7M | under a plan, one day |
| Kimbal Musk, director | $25.6M | the CEO's brother; no plan |
| Taneja, CFO | $5.4M | no plan |