The Ledger

CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc.

Industry Diagnostics Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$32.00 → $38.30

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$32 → $38

Show the math

today's enterprise value over the gross profit the 2026 revenue guide implies at the margin Caris has actually been reporting, held at about 12×, with that gross profit compounding at the growth rate management states on its own guide, then less net debt and divided by a share count growing at the pace of the last half. Caris guides no margin at all, so the margin here is its own reported 65% and 68% for the two quarters of 2026 rather than a promise, and it is held flat because no later-year margin is stated anywhere in five decks. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$20$40$60$80Today (Oct 2026): $32, the market price$32TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $38 a share if management delivers$3812 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $48 a share if management delivers$4824 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $59 a share if management delivers$5936 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares +0.04% a year as in the half to Jun '26 — flat only because of a first buyback; the option overhang is outside this count$32$38283M sh$48283M sh$59283M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The measure. Revenue of $1.03-1.04bn for 2026, the guide as raised in August from February's $1.00-1.02bn, located in the deck. H1 was $479.9M, so the raised range needs $550-560M in the second half.
  2. The rate. 2027, 2028 and 2029 are not guided, and nothing in five decks states a rate for any later year. The range spans both rates management has put on its own 2026 guide — "23% - 26% YoY" in February and "27% - 28% YoY" in August — carried forward as the stated driver. No analyst number and no price target is in this model.
  3. The margin is reported, not promised. Caris guides revenue and operating expenses in dollars, never a margin. The 65% and 68% used here are the two quarters of 2026 it has reported, on its own slide definition (revenue less cost of services, over revenue). The 75% it printed for Q4 '25 is excluded, because the deck itself says 10.8 points of it came from exceeding the accrual on prior-period cases.
  4. What has no number. Three guided lines left the table rather than being met: molecular-profiling revenue and pharma R&D revenue were both dropped from the Q2 '26 guidance slide, and the operating-expense guide was raised. The tumour-naive MRD submission has been "compiling data" for three quarters with no date, Caris Detect is launched and unguided, and the clinico-genomic data bank — the asset the whole story rests on — is sold to pharma whose revenue fell 38% year on year in Q2. None of it is in the model.
  5. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Net cash of -$402M is added back in every year; the $400M term loan runs interest-only to 2031, so no row here repays it. Shares start at 282.6M.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 5 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
2025 revenue $675-685MQ2 '25$812M — $110M of it prior-period collectionsHeld
2025 clinical volume +19-21%Q2 '25+22%Held
Alliance to 100 member sitesQ2 '25reachedHeld
Caris Detect launched with EverlywellQ1 '26launched by Q2 '26, and unguidedHeld
ChromoSeq and MI Clarity to launchFY25both launched Apr-May '26Held
~56,000 completed cases a quarterQ1 '2659,200 in Q2 '26Held
ACHIEVE 2 toward 25,000 subjectsQ3 '25not mentioned againDropped
2026 profiling revenue $925-935MFY25dropped from the guidance tableDropped
2026 pharma revenue $75-85MFY25dropped; H1 was $16.8M, down 34%Dropped
Tumour-naive MRD into MolDX reviewQ1 '26"compiling data" three quarters runningOpen
2026 revenue $1.00-1.02BFY25raised to $1.03-1.04B; H1 $479.9MOpen
FCF and adjusted EBITDA positive in '26FY25wording changed to "full year"; Q2 FCF $6.4MOpen
2026 clinical volume ~+20%FY25+17% in H1; "hit that in Q3"Open
2026 operating expenses $590-595MFY25raised to $595-600MMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q2
'25
Q3
'25
FY25Q1
'26
Q2
'26

RevenuePage one since Q2 '25

ASPOff page one Q2 '26

VolumePage one since Q2 '25

Data bankOff page one Q1 '26

CashPage one since Q2 '25

ScreeningPage one since Q1 '26

Sales forceNew FY25 · Page one since Q1 '26

PipelineOff page one Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Revenue growth

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Strong revenue growth of 81% - from $100MM to $181MM”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Revenue growth

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Strong revenue growth of 113% - from $102MM to $217MM”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Revenue growth

FY25 · headline page

“ GAAP Revenue growth of 125% - from $130MM to $293MM (inclusive of $89.8m additional revenue from exceeding accrual on prior period cases)”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Revenue growth

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ GAAP Revenue growth of 79% - from $121MM to $216MM”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Revenue growth

Q2 '26 · headline page

“$263.7M +45% YoY”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

ASP uplift from payer contracting and collections

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Clinical ASP improvement of 52% - from $2,138 to $3,256”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

ASP uplift from payer contracting and collections

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Clinical ASP improvement of 87% - from $2,184 to $4,089”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

ASP uplift from payer contracting and collections

FY25 · headline page

“ Clinical ASP increase of 150% - from $2,146 to $5,357 (inclusive of $1,705 additional revenue from exceeding accrual on prior period cases)”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 5 ·

ASP uplift from payer contracting and collections

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ Clinical ASP increase of 61% - from $2,488 to $3,996”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

ASP uplift from payer contracting and collections

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Surpassed $3,850 75% MI Cancer Seek”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 19 ·

Clinical volume growth

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Consistent volume growth of 22% - completing 50,032 clinical cases”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Clinical volume growth

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Consistent volume growth of 18% - completing 50,763 clinical cases”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Clinical volume growth

FY25 · headline page

“ Volume growth of 20% - completing 52,700 clinical cases”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Clinical volume growth

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ Volume growth of 15% - completing 52,800 clinical cases”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Clinical volume growth

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Volume Growth Acceleration 12% sequential growth from Q126.”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Clinico-genomic dataset

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Dataset surpassed 900,000+ genomic profiles and 600,000+ matched profiles including over 529,000 WES and 580,000 WTS”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Clinico-genomic dataset

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Dataset surpassed 959,000+ genomic profiles and 660,000+ matched profiles including over 577,000 WES and 628,000 WTS”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Clinico-genomic dataset

FY25 · headline page

“ Dataset surpassed 1,016,000+ genomic profiles and 740,000+ matched profiles”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Clinico-genomic dataset

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Profiled Cases 677,000+”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 3 ·

Clinico-genomic dataset

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“PROFILED CASES”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 3 ·

Profitability and cash flow

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow positive (1)”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Profitability and cash flow

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Achieved Positive Free Cash Flow of $55.3MM”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 6 ·

Profitability and cash flow

FY25 · headline page

“ Positive GAAP Net Cash from Operating activities of $44.4MM, Positive Free Cash Flow of $39.7MM* and cash, marketable securities and restricted cash on hand of $802.3MM”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 5 ·

Profitability and cash flow

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ Positive GAAP Net Cash from Operating Activities of $32.9MM, Positive Free Cash Flow of $22.5MM* and cash, marketable securities and restricted cash on hand of $825.7MM”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Profitability and cash flow

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Positive Adjusted EBITDA for 5th consecutive quarter.”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Early detection (Caris Detect)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Early Detection – Breast √ √√WES/WTS”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 12 ·

Early detection (Caris Detect)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“ACHIEVE 2 enrollment ongoing”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 12 ·

Early detection (Caris Detect)

FY25 · further in the deck

“Achieve 1 Interim Readout Summary”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 8 ·

Early detection (Caris Detect)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ Reported ACHIEVE-1 Study results reinforcing the superior sensitivity and specificity of Caris Detect”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Early detection (Caris Detect)

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Launched Caris Detect”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Commercial expansion

FY25 · further in the deck

“ Expand sales force and number of territories”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 7 ·

Commercial expansion

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ Sales force re-alignment completed in January 2026, exited at a quarterly run-rate of approximately 56,000 completed cases for February and March”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Commercial expansion

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Salesforce Expansion 290 team members as of June 30, 2026.”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Pipeline launches (ChromoSeq, MI Clarity, MRD)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Caris Product Development Status”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 12 ·

Pipeline launches (ChromoSeq, MI Clarity, MRD)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Additional Solutions for Heme Therapy Selection and Early-Stage”

Deck Caris Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 11 ·

Pipeline launches (ChromoSeq, MI Clarity, MRD)

FY25 · further in the deck

“Additional Pipeline Solutions - Status 10”

Deck Caris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Presentation · p. 10 ·

Pipeline launches (ChromoSeq, MI Clarity, MRD)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“ Launched Caris ChromoSeq & Launched Caris MI Clarity”

Deck Caris First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 5 ·

Pipeline launches (ChromoSeq, MI Clarity, MRD)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Caris MI Clarity: Upgraded”

Deck Caris Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call Presentation · p. 14 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Revenue
The first line of every highlights slide, and the growth rate in it fell from 125% in Q4 '25 — lifted by collections — to 45% in Q2 '26.
ASP
A highlights line through Q1 '26, then taken off it. The label changed in all five decks: with true-ups, then by tissue and blood, then with the prior-year impact split out, then base ASP, then one blended figure above $3,850.
Volume
Clinical cases every deck, with a tissue/blood split added in FY25. Growth dipped to 15% in Q1 '26 on a sales re-alignment and recovered to 18% in Q2.
Data bank
The asset the story rests on: 600,000+ matched profiles, then 660,000+, sold to AbbVie, Moderna, Genentech and others. A highlights line through FY25, then moved to the platform slide only — while the pharma revenue it earns fell 38% year on year in Q2 '26.
Cash
Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in all five decks. Free cash flow fell from $55.3M in Q3 '25 to $6.4M in Q2 '26, and the Q2 highlights lead with adjusted EBITDA instead.
Screening
One pipeline row in Q2 '25; three slides in Q2 '26, with a new "Mutational Cleanse" prevention idea built on it. Caris Detect is launched, through channel partners, and carries no guidance.
Sales force
New in the FY25 deck: territories from 82 to 146 in January 2026, about 300 reps hired. Asked in Q2 '26 for the next target, the CFO said only that they would "continue to assess".
Pipeline
A product-status table in every deck. ChromoSeq and MI Clarity launched in April and May '26; the tumour-naive MRD submission has been "compiling data" for three quarters with no date.
New
Q2 '26 relabels the true-ups "revenue from prior period performance obligations" ($23.6M) — the same number, a longer name.
Quiet
Three measures stopped: the headline clinical ASP, the profiling gross margin excluding prior-period revenue (added in FY25 at 64% against 66% reported, gone by Q2 '26), and the debt line. Two of the three are the ones that showed how much of the revenue was earned in an earlier period.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 5

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

4 calls · Q2 25 – Q1 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26
Demand & customers6%15%6%23%
Growth & sales19%20%31%31%
Pricing & margins31%40%38%23%
Guidance & outlook44%10%38%31%
Capital & financing·10%·8%
Competition12%10%6%8%
Products & technology·20%12%15%
Macro & regulation··6%·
Other31%25%12%23%
Questions16201613
How much the CEO talked0%1%5%0%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    Disclosure controls "not effective", on the line that carries the revenue estimates

    The Q2 2026 10-Q discloses a material weakness and concludes disclosure controls were not effective at 2026-06-30, for "a lack of sufficient qualified accounting resources". Revenue on profiling is accrued at an estimate and trued up when cash arrives: $110.1M of 2025 revenue (13.6%, $79.7M of it in Q4) and $23.6M of Q2 2026 (9.0%) were collections exceeding the accrual, and the half-year share rose to 7.1% from 5.3%. Without the 2025 collections revenue was about $702M, below the range the company reported beating. The measures that showed the effect — the headline clinical ASP and the margin excluding prior-period revenue — have been dropped, and the ASP definition changed three times.

  2. Tier 1 · live

    43.9% in one man's hands, with 25 million of those shares pledged to his bank

    The founder owns 125,009,756 shares through six entities, and footnote 1 of the proxy records 25,000,000 of them — 8.8% of the company — "pledged as collateral to secure personal indebtedness of Mr. Halbert". The president has pledged 150,000 and the chief executive's brother 325,000 through a trust. Company policy allows pledging up to 20% of an insider's holding without pre-approval. Officers and directors hold 50.0%, and directors are elected by plurality, so a withheld vote has no effect.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    The office lease, the aircraft, the brother, the son, and the officer loans

    The head office lease to 2028 is "unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed" by the founder and his spouse personally. Caris uses an aircraft owned by his family office and operated by Caris Air, dry-leases its own aircraft to Caris Air, and since October 2025 lets him and his family use that aircraft personally — $2.1M paid net in 2025. His brother has been a director since 2014; his son was on the payroll from 2011 until a November 2025 transition agreement, paid $435,930 for the year. The president and the general counsel exercised a million options in 2022 by tendering notes at 2.93%, repaid in stock in March 2025. A compensation-committee member the board calls independent ran the founder's family office from 2004 to 2010.

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    Four of ten directors come out of the founder's last company, and there is no nominating committee

    Jon Halbert (co-founder and former vice chairman of AdvancePCS, and the chief executive's brother), Laura Johansen (its general counsel and SVP) and Danny Phillips (its chief financial officer, now chair of Caris's audit committee) sit alongside the founder. Two committees exist, audit and compensation; nomination is left to "our independent directors collectively". At the first annual meeting the owners withheld 23.7% from the lead independent director, 18.2% from the audit chair and 17.4% from the founder, against 12.9% for the newest outside directors — if the founder's 43.9% was voted in favour, the 62.2M withheld from Castleman is about 45% of every other vote cast.

  5. Tier 2 · stable

    No say-on-pay, three officers disclosed, and plurality voting

    Caris uses the JOBS Act's emerging-growth exemptions: no compensation discussion, pay disclosed for the chief executive and two others only, and no advisory vote on pay at all — the 2026 ballot carried two items, directors and the auditor. The chief executive's bonus ran on company metrics the proxy text read does not name. Pre-IPO holders including the founder's entities, Sixth Street and J.H. Whitney keep registration rights under the April 2025 investors' rights agreement.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Peter Castleman (lead independent dir.)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.—62.2M23.7%
Danny Phillips (audit chair)A board seat.—47.8M18.2%
Jon S. Halbert (the CEO's brother)A board seat.—47.0M17.9%
David Dean Halbert (founder, CEO)A board seat.—45.6M17.4%
Ratify Deloitte & ToucheThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.—0.1M0.0%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4 sweep, 36 filings, Sep '25-Sep '26; the aggregate from the SEC insider data setsSoldNote
David Spetzler, president$14.8M597,212 shares off 1.25M option exercises, with no plan footnote
Brian Brille, vice chairman$12.1M400,000 exercised and sold the same day
Luke Power, CFO$1.65Mthe only sale in the SEC data sets' window, all of it pre-planned
David Dean Halbert, foundernothingsold no shares in either source; his 43.9% is intact and pledged