The Ledger

CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.

Industry Comms infra Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$109 → $147

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$109 → $147

Show the math

Today's price over free cash flow — 4× on the $4,735M of the twelve months to Jun '26 — held, with that free cash flow compounding at 23-25% a year, the rate that carries it to the $8.8-9.3B management's own bridge and capex guide imply once capex is down to $7.5-8.0B. Free cash flow is after interest, so the value is the equity's and no debt is subtracted; it is divided by a share count that keeps falling at the pace of the last clean half. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$100$200$300Today (Oct 2026): $109, the market price$109TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $147 a share if management delivers$14712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $204 a share if management delivers$20424 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $281 a share if management delivers$28136 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all shares and unitsthe count falling about 10% a year, as in H1 '26, on $1.2B of open-market buybacks plus Liberty's sales$109$147145M sh$204130M sh$281117M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. $109 times 163.5M economic shares — 114.4M Class A on 31 Aug '26, after the Liberty merger, plus A/N's 15.5M and Cox's 33.6M exchangeable units — over $4,735M of free cash flow for the twelve months to Jun '26, which is 4×. Standalone Charter's cash: management's bridge leaves Cox out. Cox's $6.0B of preferred converts at $477.41 and is left out of the count.
  2. The growth. The bridge on the Q2 '26 deck: $4.7B plus $4.4B from lower capex makes $9.1B. The capex guide behind it — ~$11.4B in 2026, ~$9.5B in 2027, $7.5-8.0B in 2028 and 2029, against $12.1B over the last twelve months — gives $8.8-9.3B. The model reaches it at the end of 2029, a year after capex first hits its floor, which is the cautious way to draw a step with one rate: 23-25% a year. The bridge's EBITDA bar is not sized, so nothing is added for it; the 2026 EBITDA outlook is about -1%.
  3. The debt. Not subtracted, because the cash flow is after interest. For the record: $93.8B of principal and $509M of cash at 30 Jun '26; $109.2B and $430M pro forma with Cox at the same date; $6.0B of 6.875% Cox preferred units ahead of the common. No balance sheet on one date after both closings exists before the Q3 '26 10-Q.
  4. The shares. From 142.1M to 134.8M shares and units in H1 '26, the last half with no closing in it, about -10% a year; 163.5M at 31 Aug 2026. The closings themselves — 4.7M Class A retired net, 33.6M units issued to Cox — are one-offs and outside the window.

Promises vs. what happened

12 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
2025 capex ~$12BQ4 '24$11.7B — heldHeld
Up to $80/month of appsQ3 '24~$115-127 quotedHeld
Buybacks resume, leverage ~4.1-4.2xQ1 '25held; 4.18xHeld
All apps launched in H1 '25Q3 '24pending until Q2 '26Late
450K rural passings a yearQ4 '24never reported againDropped
$900+ a year saved vs carriersQ4 '24slide dropped Q2 '26Dropped
Mobile margin 34%Q3 '25shown once, Q3 '25Dropped
2027 ~$9.5B, 2028 below $8BQ4 '24open; reaffirmed Jul '26Open
FCF from $5.2B to ~$9.2BQ3 '25LTM fell to $4.7B meanwhileOpen
Long-term revenue growthQ4 '24revenue down y/y since Q3 '25Open
2026 capex $10.5-11.0BQ4 '24~$11.4B once BEAD was addedMissed
Repricing cuts churnQ3 '24Internet losses widened to -172KMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

OverviewPage one since Q3 '24

Product claimsFirst seen Q4 '24

Price vs carriersFirst seen Q4 '24

Streaming appsFirst seen Q3 '24

ServiceFirst seen Q3 '24

Capex and FCFFirst seen Q4 '24

MobileFirst seen Q3 '24

LeverageFirst seen Q3 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Adj. EBITDA1) growth accelerated to 3.6% Y/Y in 3Q24”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Adj. EBITDA1) growth of 3.1% Y/Y in FY24 driven by mobile line growth, cost efficiency initiatives and political advert.”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Mobile growth and efficiency improvements contributed to Adj. EBITDA 1) growth of 4.8% Y/Y”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Revenue Adjusted EBITDA1) Capital Expenditures 2Q25 revenue and Adj. EBITDA1) grew by 0.6% and 0.5% Y/Y, respectively”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q3 '25 · headline page

“-0.9% -1.5% +19.0% in Billions in Billions in Billions”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q4 '25 · headline page

“-0.6% +0.6% +3.5% in Billions in Billions in Billions”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“-1.0% -2.2% +19.0% in Billions in Billions in Billions”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Results · p. 4 ·

Quarterly overview (revenue, EBITDA, capex)

Q2 '26 · headline page

“-1.7% -4.3% -0.1% in Billions in Billions in Billions”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Results · p. 4 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Has Significant Assets & Scale”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 5 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Has Significant Assets & Scale”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Results · p. 5 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Has Significant Assets & Scale”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Results · p. 5 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Has Significant Assets & Scale”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 5 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Fastest Internet Speeds2)”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 5 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Fastest Internet Speeds2)”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Assets and scale, product claims

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Most Reliable Internet2)”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Price comparison against the mobile carriers

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Saves Customers $900+/Year with Better Products 5G Home Internet Plus”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 7 ·

Price comparison against the mobile carriers

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Saves Customers $900+/Year with Better Products 5G Home Internet Plus”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Results · p. 7 ·

Price comparison against the mobile carriers

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Saves Customers $1,000+/Year with Better Products 5G Home Ultimate 12) 13)”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Results · p. 6 ·

Price comparison against the mobile carriers

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Saves Customers $1,000+/Year with Better Products 5G Home Ultimate 12)”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 6 ·

Price comparison against the mobile carriers

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Saves Customers $1,100+/Year with Better Products 5G Home Ultimate 12) 13)”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 6 ·

Price comparison against the mobile carriers

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Spectrum Saves Customers $1K/Year with Better Products 5G Home Ultimate 12) 13)”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Results · p. 6 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Full launch of “seamless entertainment” in 1H25”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Results · p. 5 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 8 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Results · p. 8 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Results · p. 7 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 9 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 8 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Results · p. 7 ·

Seamless entertainment (programmer streaming apps in the video package)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Seamless Entertainment: Solving for Value & Utility”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Results · p. 6 ·

Customer service commitment

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Transparency At Every Step”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Results · p. 5 ·

Customer service commitment

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Spectrum’s Customer Commitment”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 9 ·

Customer service commitment

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum’s Customer Commitment”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Results · p. 9 ·

Customer service commitment

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum’s Customer Commitment”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Results · p. 8 ·

Customer service commitment

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum’s Customer Commitment”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 7 ·

Customer service commitment

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Spectrum’s Customer Commitment”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 7 ·

Capex peak and free cash flow inflection

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Total Capital Expenditures Outlook (ex-BEAD)”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 15 ·

Capex peak and free cash flow inflection

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Free Cash Flow1) to Grow Rapidly in Billions”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 17 ·

Capex peak and free cash flow inflection

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Total Capital Expenditures Outlook (standalone Charter)”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 14 ·

Capex peak and free cash flow inflection

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Free Cash Flow1) to Grow Rapidly in Billions”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Results · p. 14 ·

Mobile growth and profitability

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Buyout driving growth in Unlimited Plus, lines per customer and port-ins”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Results · p. 5 ·

Mobile growth and profitability

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Mobile Profitability Continues to Grow”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 8 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Net leverage declined from 4.45x to 4.22x”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 Results · p. 12 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Net leverage declined from 4.42x to 4.13x”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results · p. 14 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Net leverage declined to 4.06x / 4.16x 18) driven by a pause in open market share repurchases prior to shareholder approval of the Liberty Broadband transaction in late Feb ’25”

Deck First Quarter 2025 Results · p. 14 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Net leverage in 2Q25 was 4.10x or 4.18x 18) pro forma for the Liberty Broadband transaction”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 Results · p. 13 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Net leverage in 3Q25 was 4.15x or 4.23x17) pro forma for the Liberty Broadband transaction”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 Results · p. 15 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Net leverage in 4Q25 was 4.15x or 4.21x18) pro forma for the Liberty Broadband transaction 4.24x17)”

Deck Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · p. 13 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Net leverage in 1Q26 was 4.15x or 4.22x17) pro forma for the Liberty Broadband transaction 4.16x16)”

Deck First Quarter 2026 Results · p. 12 ·

Leverage and share repurchases

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Repurchased $1.2B in principal amount of CCO/CCOH notes under an open market repurchase program for $1.0B cash 4.18x9)”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 Results · p. 11 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Overview
First slide in all eight. It praised EBITDA growth through Q2 '25; from Q3 '25, when EBITDA turned down, the numbers run with no caption.
Product claims
Added Q4 '24. In Q2 '26 'Fastest Internet Speeds' became 'Most Reliable Internet'.
Price vs carriers
$900+, $1,000+, $1,100+, then $1K saved a year against the mobile carriers — and gone from the Q2 '26 deck.
Streaming apps
In all eight. Promised fully launched by H1 '25; still listed 'to be launched' until Q2 '26.
Service
A full slide from Q4 '24 to Q4 '25; dropped from Q1 '26.
Capex and FCF
The multi-year capex slide in Q4 '24, Q4 '25 and Q2 '26, and the free cash flow bridge to ~$9B in Q3 '25 and Q2 '26 — the second time without the tax bar and from a lower base.
Mobile
Line counts every quarter; profitability shown once, Q3 '25 (34% margin ex-SAC), never again.
Leverage
In all eight, with no target printed in any; in Q2 '26 the net leverage sentence gave way to a note on a bond buyback.
New
From Q1 '26: EBITDA growth 'excluding transition expense' and revenue excluding advertising and app allocation; the per-share FCF bridge to $64.
Quiet
Rural passings activated (once, Q4 '24), the carrier price slide, the service slide and the leverage sentence. The Cox deal never got a slide.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers14%40%7%75%50%17%38%·
Growth & sales29%30%7%12%33%50%··
Pricing & margins43%30%7%25%17%67%50%20%
Guidance & outlook14%20%·38%·17%12%40%
Capacity & supply14%·······
Capital & financing14%50%7%38%17%·12%20%
Competition29%10%21%12%17%33%50%20%
Products & technology··14%25%17%17%··
Macro & regulation·10%14%···12%·
Other43%30%50%·33%33%25%40%
Questions7101486685
How much the CEO talked0%82%93%83%78%0%84%84%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    ~$109B of debt and $6.0B of preferred under an $18.5B equity

    $93.8B of principal at 30 Jun '26, $109.2B pro forma with Cox, 4.18x net leverage, $6.0B of 6.875% Cox preferred units ahead of the common. The common is about a seventh of the enterprise; Altman Z 0.66.

  2. Tier 2 · live

    Cox and A/N name up to six directors; Cox's CEO chairs

    Taylor chairs for three years, then Winfrey; Cox (28.7% as converted) and A/N each designate up to three. Caps of 30%/30% and 19%/15%, standstills and preemptive rights. Cox suspended its buyback participation on 28 Sep.

  3. Tier 2 · live

    CFO out a month after the outlook cut

    2026 EBITDA moved from 'slight growth' to about -1% on 24 Jul; Fischer resigned 28 Aug, leaving 15 Oct; the chief accounting officer becomes interim CFO as well. Two dodges logged, both on broadband revenue per customer.

  4. Tier 2 · worsening

    $80.6B of buybacks at an average $429, and the protest vote

    Debt-funded repurchases at nearly four times today's price. In 2026, 23.6% voted against say on pay and 29.2% against 16.0M more plan shares; Winfrey's 2023 five-year grant was a target $85.0M.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    Measures dropped, and Cox never got a slide

    The leverage sentence, the carrier price comparison and the gig-passings slide stopped; relationships were redefined; no results deck carries a Cox synergy or milestone.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Stock-plan increaseStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much.—37.5M29.2%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.—30.3M23.6%
NairA board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.13.3M9.6M7.5%
Markley (left at the closing)A board seat.8.9M6.8M5.3%
Zinterhofer (lead independent)A board seat.8.1M3.9M3.0%
Conn (compensation chair)A board seat.2.6M3.3M2.6%
Winfrey (CEO)A board seat.0.6M0.7M0.6%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Jul '25-Oct '26SoldNote
Thomas Rutledge, director emeritus$12.7M87,833 shares at $144-147 on 26-27 May '26
David Merritt, director$0.3M1,200 shares at $226.18 on 5 Nov '25
Christopher Winfrey, CEObought $2.2Mat $273 in Jul '25 and $172 in Apr '26