The Ledger

CMPSCOMPASS Pathways plc

Industry Biotech binary Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

Held at $11.18

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$11 → $11

Show the math

today's enterprise value — what the market pays for COMP360 once cash and debt are set aside — held where it is, less the spending management's own runway implies: $433M of cash lasting "into 2028", so about $173-289M a year. Then less net debt and divided by a share count growing at its pace outside the raises. Compass guides no price, volume or sales for COMP360, so nothing in the model can make it worth more. The enterprise value is about 4.9× a year's guided spend. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. From Oct 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it; the arithmetic alone gives $7 at 36 months.

0$2$5$8$10$12Today (Oct 2026): $11, the market price$11TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $11 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$1112 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $11 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$1124 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $11 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$1136 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace outside the raisesshares +2% a year as in Q2 '26, the 2026 quarter with no offering; pre-funded warrants counted, PIPE warrants not$11$11164M sh · held$11167M sh · held$11171M sh · held
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The measure. The runway: $433.3M of cash at 30 Jun '26 is "sufficient ... into 2028" (Q2 '26 10-Q and release). Read to the start of 2028 that is $288.9M a year; to its end, $173.3M. H1 '26 used $88.2M of operating cash, and the launch has not started. The last annual burn guide, $120-145M for 2025, came in at $157.2M and was not repeated.
  2. Why no growth. No deck, release or call gives a price, a patient count or a peak-sales figure for COMP360. The only revenue numbers in the decks are Spravato's — Johnson & Johnson's product, used as the comparator — and a market size (~4M US TRD patients). Neither is Compass's own guide, so neither is in the model.
  3. The shares. 159.6M economic shares at 30 Jun '26: 135.7M ordinary plus 23.8M pre-funded warrants. Left out: 11.9M other warrants (mostly PIPE warrants at $9.93), 9.9M options, 1.5M RSUs.
  4. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares; net debt is -$383M, net cash. No analyst number and no price target is in it.
  5. Held. From October 2027 nothing management has put a number on grows the business faster than its share count, so the figure is held where the arithmetic last had it, today's price; the arithmetic alone gives $7 at 36 months.

Promises vs. what happened

13 claims · 6 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Cash runway into 2027Q3 '25kept — by raising $344M more, then 'into 2028'Held
COMP006 26-week data in H2 '26Q1 '257 Jul '26, the start of the windowHeld
…narrowed to early Q3 '26Q3 '25met, one week into Q3Held
COMP005 26-week data in Q1 '26Q3 '2517 Feb '26; no statistical test after Week 6Held
COMP006 9-week data in Q1 '26Q3 '2517 Feb '26: -3.8 MADRS at Week 6Held
Rolling NDA reviewQ3 '25granted, plus a National Priority VoucherHeld
PTSD Phase 3 starts Q1 '26Q4 '25'underway' by Aug; now Phase 2b/3, 300 patientsLate
No suicides or attempts in Phase 3Q1 '2626-week table shows one suspected suicide and one attemptLate
Anorexia as a third indicationQ1 '25gone from the decks after Aug '25Dropped
Spravato $3-3.5B by 2028 as the benchmarkQ3 '25shown once, Nov '25, then swappedDropped
NDA complete in Q4 '26Q1 '26unchanged in three statements; openOpen
US launch in H1 '27, if approvedQ2 '26open; needs approval and DEA rescheduling firstOpen
Launch-ready by end '26Q1 '26'on track' in Jul '26; openOpen

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

ReadoutsPage one since Q1 '25

Fast trackPage one since Q3 '25

LaunchPage one since Q2 '26

DurabilityOff page one Q2 '26

CashOff page one Q1 '26

PTSDPage one since Q2 '26

MarketPage one since Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Phase 3 readout calendar

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Pivotal trial 2 (COMP006): 26-week data expected H2 2026”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation June 2025 · p. 3 ·

Phase 3 readout calendar

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Pivotal trial 2 (COMP006): 26-week data expected H2 2026”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation August 2025 · p. 3 ·

Phase 3 readout calendar

Q3 '25 · headline page

“9-week (Part A) data from COMP006 in Q1 2026”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation November 2025 · p. 3 ·

Phase 3 readout calendar

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Part B (26-week) COMP006 data expected in early Q3 2026.”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

Phase 3 readout calendar

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Two highly statistically significant positive Phase 3 trials of COMP360 in TRD at primary endpoint* at Week 6”

Deck COMP360 Phase 3 Program Topline Results COMP005 & COMP006 (17 Feb 2026) · p. 5 ·

Phase 3 readout calendar

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Consistent results across two highly statistically significant positive Phase 3 trials demonstrating rapid onset and durable clinical benefit through”

Deck Investor Presentation Q2 2026 (August 2026) · p. 4 ·

Accelerated regulatory path

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Positive discussions with FDA regarding potential acceleration scenarios, including rolling submission, for our NDA submission for COMP360 in TRD”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation November 2025 · p. 3 ·

Accelerated regulatory path

Q4 '25 · headline page

“FDA supportive of a rolling submission & review of planned”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

Accelerated regulatory path

Q1 '26 · headline page

“COMP360 has Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA and we are planning to meet as soon as possible with the FDA to discuss a rolling submission and review, and expect to complete an NDA submission in Q4”

Deck COMP360 Phase 3 Program Topline Results COMP005 & COMP006 (17 Feb 2026) · p. 6 ·

Accelerated regulatory path

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Rolling NDA submission and review underway with final submission expected in Q4 2026”

Deck Investor Presentation Q2 2026 (August 2026) · p. 4 ·

Launch readiness on existing Spravato infrastructure

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Potential launch of COMP360 will leverage a well-established infrastructure of interventional psychiatry treatment centers”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation June 2025 · p. 13 ·

Launch readiness on existing Spravato infrastructure

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Potential launch of COMP360 will leverage a well-established infrastructure of interventional psychiatry treatment centers”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation August 2025 · p. 13 ·

Launch readiness on existing Spravato infrastructure

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Company is accelerating commercialization launch readiness plans by 9-12 months”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation November 2025 · p. 3 ·

Launch readiness on existing Spravato infrastructure

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Accelerating aggressive commercialization launch readiness plans.”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

Launch readiness on existing Spravato infrastructure

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“We are Planning To Be Launch Ready by the End of the Year”

Deck COMP360 Phase 3 Program Topline Results COMP005 & COMP006 (17 Feb 2026) · p. 31 ·

Launch readiness on existing Spravato infrastructure

Q2 '26 · headline page

“U.S. launch expected in H1 2027”

Deck Investor Presentation Q2 2026 (August 2026) · p. 4 ·

Durability after one or two doses

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“COMP004: Long-term data shows average efficacy of a single dose of 25mg COMP360 at 92 days”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation June 2025 · p. 11 ·

Durability after one or two doses

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Phase 2b and Phase 3 COMP005 results in TRD demonstrated significant, rapid, and durable anti-depressant effects and tolerable safety profile.”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

Durability after one or two doses

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Deep and durable response achieved in significant number of participants”

Deck COMP360 Phase 3 Program Topline Results COMP005 & COMP006 (17 Feb 2026) · p. 5 ·

Durability after one or two doses

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Remarkable durability sustained through at least 6 months with only 1 or 2 additional doses after initial dose”

Deck Investor Presentation Q2 2026 (August 2026) · p. 5 ·

Cash position

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Cash position of $260.1 million at March 31, 2025”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation June 2025 · p. 3 ·

Cash position

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Cash position of $222 million at June 30, 2025”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation August 2025 · p. 3 ·

Cash position

Q3 '25 · headline page

“$185.9 million as of September 30, 2025”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation November 2025 · p. 3 ·

Cash position

Q4 '25 · headline page

“$186 million cash as of September 30, 2025.”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

PTSD as the second indication

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Phase 2 PTSD positive top-line data reported in Q2 2024, late-stage clinical study in development”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation June 2025 · p. 3 ·

PTSD as the second indication

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Phase 2 PTSD positive top-line data reported in Q2 2024, late-stage clinical study in development”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation August 2025 · p. 3 ·

PTSD as the second indication

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Phase 2 data of COMP360 showed a safe and differential profile in patients with PTSD”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation November 2025 · p. 3 ·

PTSD as the second indication

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Initiation of PTSD late-stage trial.”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

PTSD as the second indication

Q2 '26 · headline page

“13M U.S. patients with post-traumatic stress disorder”

Deck Investor Presentation Q2 2026 (August 2026) · p. 4 ·

Market size and the Spravato comparison

Q3 '25 · headline page

“~3M U.S. patients suffer from TRD, representing a large unmet need in psychiatry”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation November 2025 · p. 3 ·

Market size and the Spravato comparison

Q4 '25 · headline page

“TRD: ~4M in the U.S. suffer with”

Deck COMPASS Pathways investor presentation January 2026 · p. 3 ·

Market size and the Spravato comparison

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Potentially Highly Differentiated and Compelling COMP360 Clinical”

Deck COMP360 Phase 3 Program Topline Results COMP005 & COMP006 (17 Feb 2026) · p. 30 ·

Market size and the Spravato comparison

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Blockbuster”

Deck Investor Presentation Q2 2026 (August 2026) · p. 4 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Readouts
On every headline slide; the COMP006 date tightened from H2 '26 to early Q3 '26 and was met. After February 2026 it becomes a results line.
Fast track
Absent until November 2025; by Q2 '26 the pitch adds rolling review and a National Priority Voucher.
Launch
From a back-half slide in 2025 to the headline from November 2025; the Spravato clinic count rises with it, ~6,000 to >8,100.
Durability
Becomes the main efficacy claim once 26-week data exist, on observed means with no test after Week 6 and on second or third doses.
Cash
On every headline slide until January 2026; missing from the February and August 2026 decks.
PTSD
A 'late-stage study' throughout; called Phase 3 in January 2026 and Phase 2b/3 in August, 234 patients then 300.
Market
US TRD patients restated from ~3M to ~4M; the Spravato benchmark went from J&J's $3-3.5B 2028 guide to $1.4-1.5B of 2025 revenue; 'Blockbuster' first appears in August 2026.
New
2026: the National Priority Voucher, launch timing (H1 '27) and the word 'Blockbuster'.
Quiet
Cash and runway gone from the 2026 decks; anorexia nervosa gone after August 2025; the 'no suicides' sentence gone after the 26-week data.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q2 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers·6%····12%14%
Growth & sales·6%······
Pricing & margins·6%······
Guidance & outlook·····9%·36%
Capacity & supply······6%·
Competition··4%···6%7%
Products & technology·11%8%10%·18%24%36%
Macro & regulation·6%12%10%11%9%·7%
Other100%72%85%80%89%73%71%36%
Questions11826109111714
How much the CEO talked47%29%34%23%64%53%28%42%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · live

    The launch is paid for in new shares, and the authority is already granted

    $433.3M of cash lasts 'into 2028'; launch is guided for H1 '27; the Hercules minimum-cash covenant starts 1 Oct '27, and the 10-Q says keeping it will need new financing or deep cuts. The 2025 AGM authorised allotment of £1,114,200 nominal — about 139.3M shares at £0.008 — with pre-emption disapplied. A shelf was filed on 5 Aug '26 and the ATM is live.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    Bonus paid in full on 'manage our cash runway' as the burn guide was missed

    2025 corporate score 100%; Nath $388,367, Loxam $220,500, Goodwin $179,595. The $120-145M burn guide came in at $157.2M, was not repeated, and cash left the 2026 decks.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    The two largest holders sit at a 9.99% cap with warrants behind it

    RTW and Deep Track hold 9.99% each through ADSs and pre-funded warrants under exercise blockers; 23.8M pre-funded warrants carry a $337.5M liability whose remeasurement made $205.6M of the Q2 '26 loss.

  4. Tier 3 · stable

    Otsuka ties, and a classified board

    The CEO and director McQuade come from Otsuka; the McQuade Center holds 1.2%. Directors serve staggered three-year terms. In 2025, 12.8% voted against Lönngren and 10.2% against pay; in 2026 nothing topped 0.8%.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Say on pay (advisory)Executive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.4.5M0.5M0.8%
Directors' remuneration report (UK)Executive pay.4.5M0.4M0.7%
Daphne Karydas (audit chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.—0.2M0.3%
Allotment authority, ~139M sharesPermission to create more shares. The company may then sell new shares later, for deals or to raise cash. New shares dilute the existing ones, so each shareholder owns a smaller share of the company. A no says shareholders want that door kept narrower.3.9M——
Thomas Lönngren (director)A board seat.5.7M——

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct '25-Oct '26SoldNote
Nath, CEO$264,50235,274 shares withheld for tax on vesting; no market sale
Loxam, CFO$43,6296,248 shares withheld for tax on vesting; no market sale
Everyone else$0no open-market purchase or sale by any insider in a year