GTLBGitLab Inc.

Industry Dev software Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$56.28 → $69.95

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$56 → $59

One guided year on: +10% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $58.62, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $69.95 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $56.28 is +10% a year, $62.15 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

today's enterprise value over the operating profit management has guided for this year — 53× forward on a guided 13% margin — held flat, times revenue compounding at the rates management puts on its own guides, times that same margin. Then plus net cash of -$1.3B and divided by the share count, 167.3M today, moving at the pace of the last half. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares -3.3% a year as in the half to Jul '26, on the first buyback the company has ever run	$56	$59161M sh	$68155M sh	$81150M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. 53× is today's enterprise value divided by the $148-152M of non-GAAP operating profit management guides for fiscal 2027. The model holds it, so the value moves only with revenue and margin, and the rerating question is left where it belongs — outside the page.
The years. Fiscal 2028, 2029 and 2030 are not guided. Revenue compounds at 15-19%: the slow end is the growth management prints on the quarter it is guiding next, which is below the quarter just reported, and the fast end is the growth it prints on the full year. The margin is held at the guided 13.1-13.5%. These are GitLab's fiscal years, each ending 31 January.
The shares. 167.3M at 31 Jul 2026, against 170.1M six months earlier: the board authorised $400M in March 2026 and the company retired 5.84M shares at an average $26.47. The arithmetic grows the share count to each calendar year end, eleven months past the fiscal year it is labelled with, so it is eleven months more dilution than the year needs; the bars at 12, 24 and 36 months from the price date are read along the line between those points. Working against it: the equity plan's reserve rises automatically by 5% of the shares every February, 8.5M shares this year, with another 1% for the purchase plan.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
Q4 FY25 revenue $205-206M	Q3 '25	$211M, and profit +29%	Held
FY25 revenue $753-754M	Q3 '25	$759M, +31%	Held
FY26 revenue $936-942M	Q4 '25	$955M, and profit $163M vs $109-114M	Held
Margin flat Q1 to Q2 FY26	Q4 '25	12% to 17%, five points better	Held
Q2 FY27 revenue $272-274M	Q1 '27	$286M, the widest beat	Held
Seats for the core, usage for AI	Q2 '26	Flex launched Q2 FY27	Held
New customers, the first objective	Q4 '25	1,700 first orders, +100%	Held
Duo Workflow, autonomous agent	Q3 '25	still a modest revenue line	Late
AI raises usage, not cuts seats	Q2 '26	usage up; retention 124% to 117%	Late
FY27 revenue $1.10-1.12B	Q4 '26	raised twice, now $1.13B	Open
Q3 FY27 revenue $281-283M	Q2 '27	open; below Q2's $286M	Open
FY27 gross margin 85-87%	Q2 '27	86% in Q2, from 91%	Open
Paid CRR over $100M by FY27 end	Q2 '27	$40M at Q2; needs $60M more	Open
Flex becomes the default	Q2 '27	$20M+ in six weeks; open	Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26Q1
'27Q2
'27

LeadershipFirst seen Q3 '25

DuoFirst seen Q3 '25

UltimateFirst seen Q1 '26

The planFirst seen Q4 '25

New customersNew Q4 '25 · Page one since Q2 '27

FlexFirst seen Q2 '26

AI usageFirst seen Q2 '26

SecurityFirst seen Q3 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Leadership changes on the slides

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“GitLab CEO and board member”

Deck GitLab Investor Presentation, Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 · p. 4 · 3 Dec 2024

Leadership changes on the slides

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Incoming CRO”

Deck GitLab Investor Presentation, Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 · p. 3 · 3 Mar 2025

Leadership changes on the slides

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Chief Product and Marketing Officer”

Deck GitLab Investor Presentation, Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 · p. 8 · 3 Sep 2025

Leadership changes on the slides

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“Jessica Ross”

Deck GitLab Investor Presentation, Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 · p. 18 · 2 Mar 2026