HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

1. Tier 1 · live

   The controlling shareholder is also the paid manager, for ten years, with a make-whole

   Under the 2025-05-05 Services Agreement the company pays Pershing Square Capital Management $3,750,000 a quarter — $15m a year, indexed to Core PCE — plus 0.375% a quarter of the stock price above a $66.1453 reference, on a frozen share count of 59,393,938 that "will not increase with the issuance of new shares". That is 1.5% a year of the market value above the reference, assessed on the SHARE PRICE: not on net asset value, not on earnings, not on anything the company does. The initial term is ten years with automatic ten-year renewals; early termination needs two-thirds of the disinterested directors and a default, fraud, bad faith, insolvency or change of control, and non-renewal needs their unanimous approval plus a 70% vote of the shares excluding Pershing's own 46.6%. Termination on a change of control triggers a make-whole "intended to approximate the present value of the total fees... for the remainder of the then-current term".

2. Tier 2 · live

   Management stopped guiding, and what replaced it is its own valuation

   The whole FY2026 guidance set — Adjusted Operating Cash Flow $415-465m, MPC EBT $343-391m, Operating Assets NOI $279-290m, condominium revenue $720-750m, cash G&A $82-92m — was published 2026-02-19 and withdrawn on 2026-05-08 by the chief executive rather than the chief financial officer who gave it. Five reported measures left the deck in the same quarter and KPI persistence across the five 2025-26 results decks is 0.375. What took their place is a sum of the parts: $6.2bn of equity value today, $104 a share, and $12.7bn, $211 a share, at the end of 2030 — inside which management's own table has the real estate FALLING about 1% a year while Vantage's book value rises 21% a year, re-rated on a multiple management lifts from 1.5x to 2.0x, with HHH's share of the insurer going from 58% to 100% through a repurchase of Pershing's preferred that has not happened and $0.7bn of "Future Investments" that have not been made.

3. Tier 2 · stable

   Forty per cent of the assets cannot pay a dividend without a regulator's consent until 2028

   Vantage was $6.30bn of HHH's $15.91bn of assets at 2026-06-30, bought for about $2.1bn in cash on 2026-06-04 with $1.3bn of HHC cash and $1.0bn of Series A preferred taken by Pershing Square Holdings. As a condition of approving the change of control, the Delaware Department of Insurance requires prior approval for dividends from the Delaware insurers until 2028-06-04. S&P cut the operating unit to BBB from A- after the takeover and then withdrew the rating; A.M. Best affirmed A- with a positive outlook, leaving one financial-strength rating. There is no loss-development triangle for Vantage in any HHH filing, the insurer's own filing calls its loss history "a thin historical data set", and one disclosed quarter carried $19m of adverse prior-year development. The Series A preferred exchanges into units of the insurance subsidiary rather than into HHH common, with a call-price floor at 1.5x Vantage tangible book, so Pershing's preferred takes the upside above that floor on up to 49% of the insurer.

4. Tier 3 · stable

   Nearly half of all interest is capitalised, and the guided cash measure is built after it

   46.7% of all interest incurred was capitalised in 2025 — $148.8m against $169.9m expensed, and 120% of the year's $123.9m of net income — running 41.1%, 47.9% and 46.7% across 2023-2025. Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, the measure the withdrawn guidance was given on, is built on the post-capitalisation interest line, so that $148.8m never enters it: $446.4m of AOCF in 2025 against $123.9m of GAAP net income. Adjusted condominium gross profit defines out Waiea remediation and settlement costs. The decks claim 25-30% condominium margins; The Park's Q2 2026 closings booked about 18.5%.

5. Tier 3 · stable

   The votes cannot tell you what the owners think

   At the 2026-09-30 annual meeting 0.38% of the votes cast went against the pay resolution and 0.14% against ratifying KPMG; a year earlier the figures were 2.36% and 0.30%. Pershing Square holds 46.6% of the stock and votes up to a 40% cap, so dissent among the remaining holders is arithmetically invisible on any item — a unanimous protest by every other non-index holder would still lose. The most-opposed director in both years was Anthony Williams, at 8.42% then 3.84%; Ackman himself drew 3.98% then 0.72%. Short interest of 3.54m shares at 2026-08-31 is 11.1% of the float outside Pershing and has risen for five settlements, which is where the dissent appears instead.