The Ledger

KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.

Industry Insurance Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$364 → $423

What the podcasts say

0 bullish · 1 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 show

What investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.

  1. Bearish
    Wary of Kinsale despite Tunis's more constructive viewSteve Eisman · The Real Eisman Playbook · 7 Sep 2026

All 1 statement on the Podcast Heatmap

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$364 → $423

Show the math

today's price to book, held flat, with book value compounding at the return on equity management commits to or better — its stated floor is 20% and it reported 26.4% for 2025 — less the share of earnings it is now handing back, over a share count the buyback is shrinking. No re-rating is assumed in either direction. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$200$400$600$800Today (Oct 2026): $364, the market price$364TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $423 a share if management delivers$42312 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $497 a share if management delivers$49724 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $584 a share if management delivers$58436 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: shares retiredthe share count shrinking 3.2% a year as in the half to Jul '26, after five years flat$364$42322M sh$49721M sh$58420M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Price to book on total stockholders' equity of $2,035.1m at Jun '26, held flat for three years. Kinsale has one class of stock and no preferred, so common and total equity are the same number. The base cancels out of the later years — it is here to set the rating the page prints, and the rating is the thing this page does not forecast.
  2. The rate. Return on equity from 20% to 26.4%: the floor the chief executive restates on every call and has never missed, up to the last full year actually reported. The deck's own slide runs 31.8% in 2023, 29.2% in 2024, 26.4% in 2025 and 24.4% for the first half of 2026, so the floor is the bottom of a falling series rather than a formality. Operating return, not GAAP: the gap is equity-portfolio marks.
  3. The payout. From 21% to 60% of earnings returned. Kinsale gave back 4.3% of five years of operating cash flow and then, as premium growth went negative, bought back $162.5m in two quarters. The low end is 2025, the high end the first half of 2026, and the page uses the middle. The spread between them matters more than any other range here: for a company valued on its book, the payout decides whether the company compounds or the owner's slice does.
  4. The arithmetic. Company value ÷ shares, with no net debt subtracted: a `book` model values the equity, and book value is already net of the $224.5m of debt. Shares fall from 22.8M at 17 Jul 2026 at the pace of the half before it. The rate and the share count are drawn independently, so a draw can pair a 60% payout with only a 3% fall in the count; read the line as the pace Kinsale has been running, not as a plan it has stated.

Promises vs. what happened

10 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Technology gives a substantial cost advantageQ3 '24held: 20.8% expense ratio against a 32.8% peer average — but 22.0% by Q3 '26Held
New products carry the growthQ3 '24held, and tiny: agribusiness is 1.1% of premium against an $81.7m hole in propertyHeld
Keep growing profitablyQ3 '24profit yes, growth no: +18.8% a quarter to -4.8% in Q3 '26, the third fall in a rowLate
Best combination of high growth and low combined ratioQ3 '24"high" was deleted; the three-year premium CAGR went 38.4% to 13.0%Late
Float, cash flow and investment income keep growingQ1 '25float +27% and investment income +17.5% in Q3 '26, but operating cash flow fell in 1H '26Late
Robust growth from a 2% market shareQ3 '24restated to 1.4% one deck later, then removed from the slideLate
Still well-positioned for continued profitable growthQ2 '26partly: Q3 '26 kept a 75.4% combined ratio, and premium fell 4.8%Late
The only pure-play E&S investmentQ3 '24dropped: the slide was retitled and a new ticker added, with no reason givenDropped
A progressively dislocated E&S marketQ3 '24missed: the largest division fell 18%, then 26.8% in Q3 '26, and "progressively" became "targeted areas"Missed
The goal is exceptional profit and growthQ3 '24missed: "and growth" was written out of the goal the quarter premium first fellMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

Small accountsOff page one Q2 '26

Profitable growthOff page one Q2 '26

FloatPage one since Q1 '25

Peer chartFirst seen Q3 '24

TechnologyPage one since Q3 '24

DislocationFirst seen Q3 '24

Share priceFirst seen Q3 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck November 2024 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck February 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck May 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck August 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck February 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Kinsale Capital Group, Inc., founded in 2009, is a specialty insurance company focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the United States.”

Deck May 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Exclusive small-account E&S focus

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“KINSALE OPERATES EXCLUSIVELY IN THE ATTRACTIVE E&S”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 10 ·

Profitable growth

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Well-positioned to generate strong returns and robust growth as we expand our 2% market share”

Deck November 2024 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Profitable growth

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Well-positioned to generate strong returns and robust growth as we expand our 1.4% market share”

Deck February 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Profitable growth

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“We believe Kinsale is well-positioned for continued profitable growth”

Deck May 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 16 ·

Profitable growth

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“We believe Kinsale is well-positioned for continued profitable growth”

Deck August 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 16 ·

Profitable growth

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“We believe Kinsale is well-positioned for continued profitable growth”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 16 ·

Profitable growth

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Our goal is to provide long-term value to our stockholders by generating exceptional profit and growth.”

Deck February 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Profitable growth

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Our goal is to provide long-term value to our stockholders by generating exceptional returns.”

Deck May 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Profitable growth

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“KINSALE IS WELL-POSITIONED FOR CONTINUED PROFITABLE GROWTH”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 17 ·

Balance sheet, reserves and float

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Strong balance sheet and reserve position.”

Deck May 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet, reserves and float

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Strong balance sheet and reserve position.”

Deck August 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet, reserves and float

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Strong balance sheet and reserve position.”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet, reserves and float

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Strong balance sheet and reserve position.”

Deck February 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet, reserves and float

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Strong balance sheet and reserve position.”

Deck May 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Balance sheet, reserves and float

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Strong balance sheet and reserve position.”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of high growth and low combined ratio among peers¹”

Deck November 2024 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of high growth and low combined ratio among peers¹”

Deck February 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of high growth and low combined ratio among peers1”

Deck May 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of growth and low combined ratio among peers1”

Deck August 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of growth and low combined ratio among peers1”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of growth and low combined ratio among peers1”

Deck February 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“OUR COMBINED RATIO IS ONE OF THE LOWEST AMONGST OUR SPECIALTY”

Deck May 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 15 ·

Lowest combined ratio among peers

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“ Best combination of growth and low combined ratio among peers1”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 9 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck November 2024 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck February 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q1 '25 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck May 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q2 '25 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck August 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck February 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck May 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

Technology and cost advantage

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Leverage our proprietary technology to operate with a substantial cost advantage over competitors”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 4 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck November 2024 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck February 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck May 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck August 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck February 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from the growing and progressively dislocated E&S market.”

Deck May 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 11 ·

E&S market dislocation

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Kinsale is poised to benefit from targeted areas of dislocation in the current E&S market.”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 12 ·

Shareholder returns vs the S&P 500

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Compounded Annual Gain ─ 2016-2023 51.2% 13.2%”

Deck November 2024 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 7 ·

Shareholder returns vs the S&P 500

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Compounded Annual Gain ─ 2016-2024 49.7% 14.6%”

Deck February 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 7 ·

Shareholder returns vs the S&P 500

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Compounded Annual Gain ─ 2016-2024 49.7% 14.6%”

Deck October 2025 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 7 ·

Shareholder returns vs the S&P 500

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Compounded Annual Gain — 2016-2025 40.8% 14.9%”

Deck August 2026 Kinsale IR Presentation · p. 8 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Small accounts
On the overview slide of all eight decks, and the one claim nothing has contradicted. The "only publicly-traded, pure-play" title was replaced in Aug '26, with a new competitor's ticker added to the chart and no reason given.
Profitable growth
Growth left the overview slide in May '25 and the stated goal in May '26, the first quarter premium declined. The growth-drivers slide kept its title throughout — it is the only place the word survives.
Float
Appeared in May '25, replacing the market-share line, the quarter growth started slowing. Float +27% to $3,396.2m; operating cash flow fell, and in Aug '26 the slide title moved cash flow to the end.
Peer chart
Kinsale against eight peers on growth and combined ratio. "High" was deleted from "high growth" in Aug '25; the three-year premium CAGR shown went 38.4% to 25.6% to 13.0%, still the highest of the nine.
Technology
The claim that held. Expense ratio 20.8% against a peer average of 32.8% in the deck's own chart — 21.7% by Q2 '26 and 22.0% in Q3, because retention rose and ceding commissions fell.
Dislocation
The market was "growing and progressively dislocated" for seven decks. In Aug '26 it became "targeted areas of dislocation", the quarter gross premium fell 5.0% and the division that benefited most from dislocation fell 32.7%. The Oct '26 release names "heightened competition" in property: Commercial Property -26.8% in Q3.
Share price
A returns-against-the-S&P table in four decks, image-only in two of them. Aug '26 shows 2025 at (15.8)% against the index's 17.9% and adds a share-price chart — the first deck to show the share price.
New
Aug '26: net written premiums appear as a bullet for the first time, in the quarter gross fell 5.0% and net only 1.4%; gross investment return is added to the float chart.
Quiet
The market-share figure went after two decks, and the peer book-value and earnings-growth charts after one. No deck in the window shows an accident-year loss ratio, reserve development or a rate change.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers4%··4%··17%·
Growth & sales17%45%15%21%38%·44%28%
Pricing & margins8%21%12%29%25%·22%33%
Guidance & outlook17%7%3%18%··17%6%
Capacity & supply·3%3%·····
Capital & financing12%14%6%7%8%·17%6%
Competition29%10%12%14%29%·39%6%
Products & technology4%14%·4%4%·6%6%
Macro & regulation4%3%15%···6%·
Other38%34%52%43%38%100%11%44%
Questions242933282411818
How much the CEO talked94%74%85%86%68%69%84%44%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 26 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · worsening

    The bonus pool is struck after reserve releases, and the releases are accelerating

    The proxy names actual underwriting profit as the measure "used to determine the bonus pool calculation under the annual cash incentive program" — $382.6m for 2025, struck after prior-year development. Favourable development went 2.79 points of net earned premium in 2024 to 3.99 in 2025 (+67% in dollars) to 4.62 in H1 '26, while gross premium growth went +12% to negative. Q2 '26's $19.4m release was the net of $22.6m taken from the 2021-25 years, "particularly in our shorter-tail lines", against an adverse charge in 2017-19 construction liability. 2025 bonuses paid at 181% of target for the chief executive.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    Chairman, president and chief executive in one person, and the retired president votes on the board

    Kehoe has run Kinsale since founding it in 2009, took the chairman's title in March 2024 and the president's in March 2026. The counterweight is a lead independent director of 79 who was himself chairman until 2024. Brian Haney was elected to the board six days after giving notice as president, retired as an officer in March 2026, and is paid $500,000 a year as a senior adviser while sitting as a director. Two of nine directors are therefore not independent. Against it: Kehoe owns 4.0% and the insiders 5.6%, the strongest alignment in this cluster.

  3. Tier 2 · worsening

    A 10-20% growth range was said on five consecutive calls and has not been said since

    Kinsale guides nothing, but it did state a 10-20% gross-premium growth range "over the cycle" from Oct '24 to Oct '25. It appears on none of the three calls since, and nobody withdrew, re-based or replaced it; the actual rate went +5.7% to -0.5% to -5.0%. The executive who said it most often gave notice a week before the last call it was spoken on. The decks edited themselves the same quiet way: "2% market share" became 1.4% then vanished, "high" left "high growth", "exceptional profit and growth" became "exceptional returns".

  4. Tier 2 · worsening

    Five senior changes in twelve months, including both technology and actuarial

    Oct '25: the president gives notice and the chief underwriting officer is promoted. Jan '26: a director will not stand and the board shrinks to nine. Mar '26: the president retires and the chief executive takes his title. Apr '26: the chief information officer retires effective the day she notifies the company, on a severance schedule running to March 2028, and the chief actuary of thirteen months takes technology as well. Every amber disclosure row since 2024 is an Item 5.02 — nine of them.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    A 9.1% shareholder is paid to manage the float, and officers were exculpated

    BlackRock holds 9.1% and "provides, on an arm's length basis, investment management services to the Company for which the Company incurred fees of approximately $2.9 million during 2025" — a float of $3,396.2m, up 27% in five quarters, with the equity share inside it up from 8% to 11.7%. Separately, the 2025 meeting approved a charter amendment exculpating officers with 12.3% against and the 2025 share plan with 11.5%, by far the largest dissents of either year.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Kehoe (Chairman, President, CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.484.9K against227.8K against1.2%
Share (CNCG chair)A board seat.923.3K against569.2K against3.1%
Lippincott (lead independent)A board seat.335.6K against148.6K against0.8%
Haney (retired President)A board seat.—146.6K against0.8%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.787.9K against436.9K against2.4%
Ratify KPMGThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.68.0K against49.9K against0.2%
Exculpation of officers (2025)Shielding executives from lawsuits. A change to the company's rulebook so that officers cannot be sued personally by shareholders for careless (not dishonest) decisions. Shareholders give up some of their power to hold executives to account; a no keeps it.2.30M against—12.3% in 2025
2025 Omnibus Incentive PlanStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much.2.14M against—11.5% in 2025

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26SoldNote
All insiders$13.0M16 sales by 5 of the 14 officers and directors
Of that, pre-plannedabout a sixth17.4% under pre-set 10b5-1 plans
Bought$1.1M15 purchases by two insiders — buying at all is rare on this board