MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.
Industry AI semis Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028
$229 → $333
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
The guides land. The product promises quietly stop being mentioned. Seven of seven quarterly revenue outlooks were beaten, by 0.3% to 1.5% every time, and the fiscal 2027 revenue figure has been raised four times. Three FY27 product promises — AEC and retimer revenue, DCI modules at all five hyperscalers, the FY25 AI revenue target — were each said once and never repeated.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 revenue $1.80B +/- 5% | Q3 '25 | $1,817M, 0.9% above the midpoint | Held |
| Data centre +>20% q/q in Q4 '25 | Q3 '25 | +24%, to $1,366M | Held |
| Data centre flat in Q3 '26 as custom falls | Q2 '26 | +2%; custom did fall, then rebounded | Held |
| FY27 data-centre growth keeps rising | Q3 '26 | ~40%, then ~50%, then ~60% | Held |
| Data centre mid-single digits q/q in Q2 '26 | Q1 '26 | +3.5%, the bottom of the range | Late |
| FY25 AI revenue target 'significantly exceeded' | Q3 '25 | the target was never stated, and no deck ever gives an AI revenue figure | Dropped |
| AEC and retimer revenue double in FY27 | Q4 '26 | said once, in Mar '26; never mentioned again | Dropped |
| DCI modules at all five hyperscalers in FY27 | Q4 '26 | recast as a $1B revenue line, customer count dropped | Dropped |
| UALink scale-up switches sample in H2 CY26 | Q3 '26 | no later deck repeats the date; due Dec '26 | Open |
| FY27 revenue ~$11B, >30% growth | Q4 '26 | raised to ~$11.5B, then ~$12B | Open |
| Switch revenue over $600M in FY27 | Q4 '26 | narrowed to 'scale-out'; no quarterly figure given since | Open |
| Custom revenue >20% in FY27, >2x in FY28 | Q1 '27 | open; no deck gives custom revenue in dollars | Open |
| Communications and other ~10% to ~$2.3B in FY27 | Q4 '26 | softened to 'approach 10%'; needs a record Q4 | Open |
| FY28 revenue ~45% to ~$16.5B | Q1 '27 | raised to ~50% and ~$18B three months later | Open |
| Q3 '27 revenue $3.15B at 57.5-58.5% margin | Q2 '27 | open; the lowest margin range in the eight decks | Open |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26Q4
'26Q1
'27Q2
'27
GuidancePage one since Q3 '25
CustomPage one since Q2 '27
OpticsOff page one Q2 '27
Multi-yearPage one since Q3 '26
CommsOff page one Q4 '26
Scale-upOff page one Q2 '27
NVIDIAOff page one Q2 '27
BuybackOff page one Q1 '27
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record data center results, consolidated revenue above guidance midpoint”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record data center results, consolidated revenue above guidance midpoint”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY25 and Q4 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record revenue, above midpoint of guidance”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record revenue, above midpoint of guidance”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY26 · p. 7 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Strong financial performance”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record FY 2026 and Q4 FY26 financial performance”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY26 and Q4 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record Q1 FY27 financial performance”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 7 ·
Record results and the guidance midpoint
“Record Q2 FY27 financial performance”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 8 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Custom AI programs ramped significantly in Q3, expect continued ramp in Q4”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Custom AI XPU and custom Arm CPU A0 silicon both ramped into high-volume production”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY25 and Q4 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Custom silicon programs rapidly scaled to high-volume production”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Won additional hyperscaler custom sockets, adding to prior 18 sockets”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY26 · p. 7 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Design win momentum continues in custom with >20 total sockets won in XPU and XPU attach”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 13 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Custom revenue doubled in FY26 and expect strong growth in FY27”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY26 and Q4 FY26 · p. 13 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Custom revenue expected to grow >20% y/y in FY27, and more than double y/y in FY28, driven by multiple program ramps”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 14 ·
Custom AI silicon (XPU and XPU attach)
“Expanded commercial agreement with Tier 1 hyperscaler for broad range of custom silicon programs, including attach programs associated with the TPU ecosystem”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 8 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“Custom and interconnect (incl. electro-optics) revenue exceeded expectations in Q3”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“Strong ongoing demand for market-leading 800G PAM and 400ZR DCI products”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY25 and Q4 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“Robust shipments of our market-leading 800G PAM and 400ZR DCI interconnect products”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“Began volume shipments of next-generation 200G per lane 1.6T PAM4 DSPs”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY26 · p. 7 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“Double-digit sequential growth from optics, as well switch and storage businesses”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 13 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“FY27 growth led by data center, which is expected to grow ~40% y/y; expect interconnect revenue to grow >50% y/y”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY26 and Q4 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“FY27 data center revenue expected to grow ~50% y/y led by interconnect revenue, which is expected to grow >70% y/y”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 7 ·
Optical interconnect (PAM4, DCI, 1.6T)
“Strong demand for 800G optical DSPs for scale out with 1.6T ramping rapidly”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 18 ·
Multi-year revenue outlook
“FY27 data center revenue growth expectations continue to move higher”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Multi-year revenue outlook
“Revenue acceleration through FY27 driven by AI”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY26 and Q4 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Multi-year revenue outlook
“AI expected to drive revenue acceleration through FY28”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 7 ·
Multi-year revenue outlook
“FY28 revenue expected to grow ~50% y/y to ~$18B, approximately $1.5B higher than prior outlook”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 8 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Non-data center revenue began recovery in Q3”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Multi-market1 revenue continued recovery in Q4”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY25 and Q4 FY25 · p. 6 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Multi-market1 revenue continued recovery in Q1”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Multi-market2 revenue continued recovery in Q2”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY26 · p. 7 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Strong growth in communications and other1 end market”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Market has largely recovered from customer inventory corrections”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 15 ·
Non-data-center recovery
“Future revenue expected to remain lumpy on a quarterly basis, reflecting mix of businesses”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 19 ·
Scale-up connectivity and acquisitions
“Transformational acquisition to accelerate AI scale-up roadmap”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Scale-up connectivity and acquisitions
“Marvell entering new scale-up interconnect and switching market; further augmented by Celestial AI and XConn”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY26 and Q4 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Scale-up connectivity and acquisitions
“Acquired Polariton, strengthening optical technology portfolio, and closed acquisitions of Celestial AI and XConn”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 7 ·
Scale-up connectivity and acquisitions
“SCALE ACROSS SCALE OUT SCALE UP SCALE IN”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 6 ·
Nvidia partnership
“Marvell adds NVIDIA NVLink Fusion technology to its custom XPU platform for AI rack-scale solutions”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY26 · p. 13 ·
Nvidia partnership
“Nvidia strategic partnership encompassing optics, NVLink Fusion and AI-RAN expected to create new opportunities”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q1 FY27 · p. 7 ·
Capital return
“Returned $1.35B to shareholders through stock buybacks including ASR program, and dividends”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q3 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Capital return
“Returned $2.245B to stockholders in FY26 through share repurchases and dividends”
Deck Financial and Business Results FY26 and Q4 FY26 · p. 6 ·
Capital return
“Cash flow of $606M from operations reflects higher supplier capacity prepayments in support of future growth. Returned $254M to shareholders, including $200M in share repurchases.”
Deck Financial and Business Results Q2 FY27 · p. 14 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Guidance
- The opening slide of all eight: revenue and non-GAAP EPS against the prior outlook. Seven of seven revenue midpoints beaten, by 0.3% to 1.5% — never more.
- Custom
- The headline of the first four decks and never a dollar figure. Socket counts (18, then over 20) appear in Q2 and Q3 '26 only; by Q1 '27 its FY27 growth is set at '>20%' against '>70%' for interconnect.
- Optics
- In all eight and now the lead: PAM4, then DCI, then 1.6T and co-packaged optics. The one line management says is growing fastest.
- Multi-year
- New in Q4 '26 and in every deck since: FY27 ~$11B to ~$11.5B to ~$12B, FY28 ~$16.5B to ~$18B, FY27 data centre ~40% to ~50% to ~60%. Every revision upward, none checkable yet.
- Comms
- Five end markets became two from Q3/Q4 '26, which removed the enterprise, carrier, consumer and auto/industrial lines. What is left is guided to '~10%' growth, softened in Aug '26 to 'approach 10%'.
- Scale-up
- UALink switches and the Celestial AI and XConn acquisitions. A 115 Tbps sampling date set for H2 CY26 in Dec '25 is not repeated in any later deck.
- NVIDIA
- In two of eight, from Q1 '27: the partnership and the $2.0bn preferred placement on the same page. The 10-K still lists NVIDIA as a direct competitor.
- Buyback
- $1.35B in Q3 '26 with an accelerated repurchase, then $254M in Q2 '27 — a fifth of it, as the deals and the prepayments took the cash.
- New
- Q2 '27: market-map slides replace the announcement slides, and operating cash flow gets a page of its own with a note that supplier prepayments held it down.
- Quiet
- The five-market revenue split and the switch revenue dollar figure both stopped. Each was the only dollar disclosure on its subject in the quarter before it went.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 9
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 FY2027 release · 8-K 27 Aug 2026
- Q1 FY2027 release · 8-K 27 May 2026
- Q4 FY2026 release · 8-K 5 Mar 2026
- Q3 FY2026 release · 8-K 2 Dec 2025
- Q2 FY2026 release · 8-K 28 Aug 2025
- Q1 FY2026 release · 8-K 29 May 2025
- Q1 FY2026 release · 8-K 6 May 2025
- Q4 FY2025 release · 8-K 5 Mar 2025
- Q3 FY2025 release · 8-K 3 Dec 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 25 – Q2 27The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 | Q4 26 | Q1 27 | Q2 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 30% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 44% | 46% | 40% | 18% |
| Growth & sales | 22% | 22% | 7% | 50% | 44% | 46% | 40% | 27% |
| Pricing & margins | 9% | 9% | 14% | 7% | · | 15% | · | 27% |
| Guidance & outlook | 17% | 22% | 18% | 36% | 44% | 38% | 70% | 45% |
| Capacity & supply | 13% | 26% | 18% | 29% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 18% |
| Capital & financing | 4% | · | · | 7% | 44% | 8% | 30% | · |
| Competition | 9% | 4% | 14% | 21% | 11% | 15% | · | 9% |
| Products & technology | 22% | 17% | 14% | 43% | 22% | 8% | 30% | 18% |
| Macro & regulation | 4% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Other | 48% | 43% | 50% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 18% |
| Questions | 23 | 23 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| How much the CEO talked | 93% | 98% | 96% | 74% | 100% | 97% | 95% | 90% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
The audit committee's chair became the chief financial officer
Willem Meintjes gave notice on 2026-06-10, two weeks after the Q1 FY27 GAAP earnings miss; no disagreement is stated and no reason is given. The same 8-K appoints Daniel Durn, who had chaired the audit committee overseeing Deloitte and signed the fiscal 2026 audit committee report, and records his departure from the board. The proxy filed four weeks earlier had nominated him as an independent director. Nothing read since names the audit committee's membership or its chair.
Tier 2 · live
44.1% against the pay report, with two executives paid more than the chief executive
Say on pay carried 327.6m to 258.6m. The fiscal 2026 table shows Sandeep Bharathi at $48.4M and Chris Koopmans at $37.7M against Matthew Murphy's $25.1M, all three driven by one year's equity grants. At the same meeting a proposal for an independent board chairman drew 36.9% in favour.
Tier 2 · stable
A competitor holds voting preferred and takes the dividend without converting
NVIDIA paid $2.0bn on 2026-03-31 for preferred convertible into ~21.8m shares at ~$91.84, about a third of today's price. It votes with the common on everything but director elections, and from Jun '26 the dividend is declared to it "on an as converted to common stock basis" — wording absent from the two previous declarations. Marvell's own 10-K lists NVIDIA among the companies that "compete directly with our businesses".
Tier 2 · stable
About 105M shares, 12% of the common, are already promised away
NVIDIA's preferred at ~21.8M as converted, a 59.0M customer warrant at $206.58 vesting on revenue milestones to FY33, and 24.4M Celestial AI earn-out shares to FY29. Behind them sits an S-3ASR shelf with no stated cap. The buyback that used to absorb the stock compensation has fallen from $1.35bn in Q3 '26 to $254M in Q2 '27.
Tier 2 · worsening
Three earnings-quality flags, and the cash arrives later than it used to
Add-backs grew 65% against revenue's 32% in H1 FY27, with a new $302.7M earn-out mark and "restructuring" in seven years of seven. Days sales outstanding went 51.5 to 73.7 in six quarters while $412M of receivables were factored. Stock pay is 11.9% of revenue.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murphy (Chairman and CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | — | 23.2M against | 4.0% |
| Buss (Lead Independent Director)A board seat. | — | 26.9M against | 4.6% |
| Say on pay — carriedExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | — | 258.6M against | 44.1% |
| Ratify Deloitte & ToucheThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | — | 2.9M against | 0.4% |
| Independent board chairman — defeatedSplit the chair and CEO jobs. A proposal that the board be chaired by an independent director, not the CEO, so the person who runs the company does not also run the board that supervises them. | — | 369.2M against | 63.1% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insider sellers | $36.3M | 20 sales by 6 people; 85.0% of the value under pre-set 10b5-1 plans |
| All insider buyers | $2.1M | 4 open-market purchases by 4 people — unlike most of this cluster, somebody bought |
| Net | -0.015% of market value | the data set gives no per-person split, so no name is attached to either row |